Game Preview: Cubs (26-31) @ Brewers(23-34) & Strasburg Day

Join the fun in Parachat if you're going to be tuned in to watch Stephen Strasburg's debut and stay for the Cubs game that starts an hour later or if you want to talk about the Blackhawks game(which doesn't happen until tomorrow).

Aramis is out of the lineup and is getting his hand checked out again according to Wittenmyer who hints a DL trip could be looming. With Chad Tracy having another 4-hit day down in Iowa, might not be a bad time for a couple weeks off.

The original lineup had Tyler Colvin sitting against Gallardo but Lou had a change of heart and is sitting Soriano instead. I give up trying to make sense of it.

Theriot, Fukudome, Lee, Colvin, Byrd, Fontenot, Hill, Castro, Lilly

vs.

Weeks, Gomez, Fielder, Braun, McGehee, Hart, Escobar, Kottaras, Gallardo

Comments

aram's right wrist/hand hasn't been right since a funky swing a few games ago.

yeah, he was doing really well before then.

you were there in parachat when i saw the swing and pointed it out to you.

given you were delayed on a feed you should have seen the awkward pulling of the top hand off the swing that's uncharacteristic of his top hand that usually "flies" off when he swings. he followed that by dropping the hand and a reflex reaction of pulling it up sling-style close to his body for a moment before dropping the hand.

there was also that crappy throw he made to 1st the following inning.

he already missed a few days with a thumb injury and has clearly not been himself all year.

I'm saying most likely it's nothing new you saw, doc crunch.

yeah, i totally didn't see anything unusual there. he does that every at bat, takes a while off, then goes on the DL. my bad.

a guy doesn't have to crumple into a ball at the plate to tip something.

and it turns out it is his thumb not what happened on that swing.

at least it's not 2 hands hurt now.

http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/news/st...

thumb it is, hand-gate thwarted.

Zimmerman HR, Straß starts career with a lead!

Regarding ARam...

I'll try to writeup up something when they give out more info on what testing they have done (i.e. MRI). If it's still bothering him, my guess is he has a torn ulnar collateral ligament of the thumb MCP joint (and it will be more than 2 weeks off if that's the case). Even if Tracy hits .260, it will be an upgrade from the offense we've been watching in the last 6-8 week.

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://pa...

Chad Tracy sparked the offense for the Cubs, ending his day 4-for-4 with two solo home runs. It was Tracy's fourth four-hit game as an I-Cub and his first two-homer game.

http://iowa.cubs.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ym...

mark prior 2.0 seems to be pretty good at baseball...3ip 1h 0bb 6k so far...

grabow 2.0 seems to have shown up for the 4th. oh well...not everyone can be carlos "cy" silva.

Mark Prior 2.0 has arrived with three better pitches than the previous version and better control.

And he's not hurt yet, so he's already more durable than Prior.

Zing.

ßburg.

Now that was a fun mlb debut.

14K, no walks, 94 pitches in 7 IP.

Marmol finally blows one...

...wtf?

this game was awesome except the last minute of it.

and comcast lost the feed from Milwaukee for the ninth inning. Failure and technical failure...at least I didn't have to watch the bottom of the 9th

Beautiful -- 2-5 trip so far against the dregs of a crap division.

Can't expect Marmol to save 'em all, but this was a killer -- score in the 9th to go ahead, one strike away, chance to build some momentum....fuck. Fuck this fucking game.

Bummer for Ted.

Plus, adding insult to injury, by a 3B we could really use right now. Fucking Hendry.

OK, but can I point out that we intentionally put the winning run on first base with only one out? At least we did according to Foxsports.com

they did, 3-0 on Fielder and Gomez just stole a base.

didn't want to groove one to Fielder apparently.

Dipshits.

epic 11-pitch Broxton vs. Pujols at-bat ends in Pujols K'ing.

Ramirez is 5-for-28 since the injury was revealed in Philadelphia on May 20. If he had gone on the DL the next day, Ramirez would have been able to return June 5.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball...

Maybe we can add Ernie Broglio to the roster, I hear he's willing to pitch poorly with an injury too.

The Chicago Cubs, willing to play injured players for centuries

Is Chad Tracy going to be eligible for the playoff roster?

Rimshot...

(reds n cards both lost, making the loss just a little more irritating)

Just watched the highlight reel for Strassburg's start... my god, what a beast. He's got unbelievable stuff going on. It makes me happy for the game of baseball, but sad he's in the NL.

Ps... I've heard a lot of comparisons for Strassburg, but he's really his own pitcher. 101 mph in inning 6 with nearly-pinpoint control... are you kidding?

He will probably get his own channel.

I saw a preview on it on ESPN last night where they featured no other programming for four or five hours, interviewing all their on-air folks, former pitching greats, Buster Olney, yadda yadda...

Don't get too excited, he made like 3 bad pitches, so he's not perfect.

Kerry Wood is the only guy I can think of who had a comparable fastball/slider combo - but Strasburg has a distinct curve and a useful changeup to go with the two fastballs, and for the most part throws them where he wants.

I've never seen anything like what he was doing last night.

I have to wonder if the start was intentionally timed with the draft so it would be National Nationals Week this week.

Kerry Wood definitely used to have a distinct curve before he blew out his arm. Watch the 20K game and look at how much lateral break he was getting on some of those pitches.

Watching Strasburg last night definitely reminded me of Kid K. Let's hope Riggleman's a little more cautious with this one.

If he had a distinct curve, he didn't have a slider - take your pick.

They were talking in the broadcast last night about how Wood's elbow was hurt before he ever arrived.

Whoever the jackass color guy was, he was going on and on about how Strasburg had clean mechanics and should pitch as much as he wanted, and how he wasn't like Wood. No one had the brains or stones to mention Mark Prior, though.

Jackass color guy = Jim Kaat

Talk about needing to let something go.

While I think the overwork contributed, didn’t the surgery reveal the likely origin of his shoulder injury was the collision with Giles?

I'm guessing Strassburg has some kind of genetic looseness.

Not that I ever heard.

Thanks - I don't remember that one. I just read that article twice and I don't understand it, but no one actually makes the conclusion Rob mentioned. It's merely a possibility as I understand it, though Dr Hecht will hopefully come by and clarify his take for me.

Actually I'm glad he's in the NL. The AL is considered the better league by a lot of folks and the NL is starting to inject some interesting young kids into their rosters. I don't follow the AL enough to know if they are, too, but this kid is unbelievable and pitching in the NL, which is a good thing I think.

It's not like it matters to the Cubs. They don't hit anybody.

left to his own devices riggleman will be more cautious - he is admittedly haunted by wood...the dilemma will come if/when the nats are in the late stages of a pennant/playoff race...btw, say what you will about prior's fragility, down the stretch in '03 he was the best horse the cubs have ridden since sutcliffe in '84, including maddux in '89; the ace that whathisname has never been, even if only for half a season...

It was painful watching Riggleman last night - you have to feel for the guy, trying to balance what his boss tells him to do, versus the real possibility that he creates a 45000 person riot.

"This year he's given up a .262 batting average on balls in play, which as any schoolboy can tell you just isn't sustainable."

Ugh... okay... he's been lucky. Anyone with two working eyeballs can tell you that, but let's not pretend .300 BABIP is a naturally-occurring phenomena. He's a contact pitcher and he'll have a lot of ground outs and a low BABIP. BABIP is not a magical predictive statistical bullet.

His career babip, by year:

2002 .311
2003 .309
2004 .320
2005 .293
2006 .316
2007 .302
2008 .344
2009 .321
2010 .262
Career: .311

I would say that a .262 is lucky, and is way out of line with his career numbers. And your "he'll have a lot of ground outs and a low BABIP" is pure bullshit.

Couple of issues here.

Can you put up his career K/9 numbers along with the BABIP? Silva is pitching differently than he has in the past, any "analysis" that doesn't recongize that as a starting point, isn't worth the virtual paper it was written on.

The other issue, is that groundball pitchers tend to give up higher BABIP's depending on various things. Silva is playing in a new park, in front of a new defense and throwing the ball differently. Take a look at each of his hit rates on batted balls (throw out the concept of BABIP because it's dated if you are actually trying to get a feel for an individual pitcher) and see what you get.

It's entirely possible that he has a BABIP of .262 for a season. Without looking at the Cubs ability to turn batted balls into outs, and specifically the batted balls that he's likely to give up into outs - you can't really conclusively say that the number can't be sustained for a season. Over two or three years? Probably not, but it could be well south of .311 (even though BABIP is still outdated).

If you're a groundball pitcher, walks and BABIP don't effect you as much as if you're a flyball pitcher - fwiw.

Can you put up his career K/9 numbers along with the BABIP?

I was waiting for someone to mention this. You nailed it.

The idea that a low BABIP can be explained by "luck" is absolutely preposterous. And dangerously stupid to understanding the game.
Look at Silva's strike outs/9 this year and you're looking at a Silva no one has ever seen before.

You mean luck doesn't factor in?

Or do you mean that luck isn't the only possible factor?

I can get on board with the second one, not the first.

I don't disagree with you, actually.

What I disagree with is Ryno's assertion that "he'll have a lot of ground outs and a low BABIP." His past history says that is bullshit.

And while I do agree with you that he could maintain a .262 BABIP this year (I never said otherwise), I do not think it is very likely.

Okay.

but the original quote says "Is not sustainable" I guess he may be meaning over the course of a career for a starting pitcher - but I tend to think the context is for 2010, so Neyer was wrong, because SP's have had BABIP's that low (Maddux once ran off a streak of doing three times in four years). Two pitchers beat that number last year, and about 20 are ahead of the pace this year.

Something else that isn't possible is three perfect games in a month... wait, nevermind. I think the SABR community is a little slow to recognize the shift to pitching that is going on.

Silva has also been excellent in controlling his batted ball trajectory this year - look at his GB/FB ratio by game, and then compare it to the pitching conditions for that game. For instance, his start in New York he worked up in the zone and got a lot of FB outs (and a big ol' jack to Hank White if memory serves).

strasburg is allegedly only gonna be allowed something like 100 innings in the majors

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/04/wha...

should be fun if nats are in the race

Thankfully he will only need about 83 pitches to no hit the Cubs.

They said that about 5 times during the broadcast last night. Between 100 and 110 was what they said (150 to 160 total on the season).

CNN tour of baseball history exhibit... kind of interesting: http://www.cnn.com/2010/SPORT/06/01/lords.mus...

Virtually everyone on twitter: Cubs recalled Chad Tracy from Triple-A and placed Aramis Ramirez on the 15-day DL (retroactive to June 8) with a left thumb contusion.

Reds catcher Ryan Hanigan has a broken thumb, I wonder who will get off the dl first

GO HAWKS !

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  • He was a big key to the crazy start, a big key to the end of last year, a big key in not beating the Mets (although lots of help from a tired inexperienced team there), so although the team as a whole can get through a series with a good Jake it will be tough with a bad Jake. I don't think it's realistic to have the insanely great Jake again, but maybe it is. Seeing today's box score it appears maybe it is - but I haven't been able to tune in yet.

    Old and Blue 3 min 54 sec ago view
  • IMO Jake is really the key to winning the World Series, but maybe I'm putting too much emphasis on one player.

    Rob Richardson 35 min ago view
  • The reports that they offered EITHER Jimenez or Torres for Chapman are a little disconcerting. I hope 1) Those reports are wrong, and 2) if they are not wrong, that they will hold on to him, as the team could use the outfield depth. I have only seen him in the futures game, but he looks like a keeper.

    Old and Blue 57 min 22 sec ago view
  • Very nice. I saw him in Lansing in May. I'm still stunned that he hit a 400-foot foul ball onto Larch Street ... which is going the other way for a right-handed batter. It was perhaps the most amazing swing I've ever seen a minor league player take. I should also mention that it was about 40 degrees out at the time. Not that it's evidence of anything per se, but I feel his plate approach is way more advanced than Soler was at this stage in his development and that the comparisons aren't really fair to Jimenez. 50/50 chance I'll go to Midland tonight for the low-A debut of Oscar de la Cruz.

    John Beasley 2 hours 46 min ago view
  • Eloy Jimenez grand slam tonight. Hoping Soler power returns and gets hot but future looks bright in the outfield regardless.

    Finished the night 4-5, with two doubles - 32(!) on the season - along with the grand slam. Sick

    Eric S 4 hours 8 min ago view
  • Meanwhile, out West:

    SF is 2-11 since the break, lead over LA is down to one game, and they are running out Cain and Peavy this weekend against the Nats. Challenging times by the Bay.

    billybucks 4 hours 55 min ago view
  • Thanks for the updates Phil. Too bad about Frazier.

    Hagsag 8 hours 50 min ago view
  • The Cubs have released RHRP Scott Frazier (2013 7th round dfraft pick - Pepperdine).

    A Cubs pitching coach told me in Spring Training 2014 that he thought Frazier had the best pure stuff in the organization. Absolutely electric fastball & breaking ball combo. Other pitchers would gather behind the screen just to watch him throw "live" BP. That's how amazing he was. 

    Arizona Phil 13 hours 58 min ago view
  • Got a chance to see Diamondbacks RHSP Zack Greinke (15-day DL - strained oblique) throw a rehab start at Sloan Park Friday night. Four of the first seven AZL Cubs hitters singled and the Cubs did score an unearned run in the bottom of the 1st inning, but then Greinke got serious and struck out five in a row.

    ZACK GREINKE: 3.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R (0 ER), 0 BB, 5 K, 4/0 GO/AO, 49 pitches (34 strikes)

    Arizona Phil 14 hours 13 min ago view
  • Have fun - It may be good for Arrieta to be facing a team that doesn't know him as well as the NL teams. A nice shutout would do wonders for his confidence. He is confident in public but baseball is hard and he could use a boost, I'm sure.

    Old and Blue 19 hours 4 min ago view
  • Me too. I'll be at the game tomorrow and would love to see Good Arrieta.

    Brick 19 hours 29 min ago view
  • Last few games have been the April version of the Cubs that disappeared completely the past two months.
    Hope they can sustain it.

    blockhead25 19 hours 56 min ago view
  • Don't sell yourself short, Judge.

    Jackstraw 20 hours 23 min ago view
  • I love this team.

    Looks like Mother Nature is trying to call this fight.

    Rob Richardson 21 hours 51 min ago view
  • Hey! I remember this team!

    billybucks 21 hours 59 min ago view
  • The key for Heyward's offense: get early leads. Heard a stat on Mike & Mike on the way to work that his avg/power much better this year when the Cubs have the lead. And true to form he gets the two run dinger with Cubs winning 3-0 ...

    Eric S 23 hours 26 min ago view