Ol' Times with Ronny Cedeno / Game #78 Preview

I watched the game intermittently last night, and one of my tune-ins happened in the top of the 7th. The Cubs were leading 3-1 but Pedro Alvarez had connected for a one-out single and then Ryan Doumit ripped a 3-1 pitch into the leftfield corner for a double that moved Alvarez to third. The visitors had the tying runs on base with just one out and roughly 100 pitches into the evening, Ted Lilly looked like he might be out of gas. Len Kasper surmised that this was probably the game's defining moment.

Then Ronny Cedeno stepped into the batter's box.

Cedeno swung at Lilly's very first pitch, a fastball inside, off the plate, and popped out to Starlin Castro. The runners remained planted at second and third.

According to FanGraphs, Cedeno's failed at-bat increased the Cubs' probability of winning by 11.3%, making it the most damaging Pittsburgh at-bat of the night (even more costly than the Ryan Church strikeout which followed). And it was all so Ronny.

Cedeno and his 59 OPS+ are back in the Pirates lineup against Tom Gorzelanny, who is returning to the Cub rotation this afternoon because he's the guy who does NOT have anger management issues.

The offensively-challenged Cubs are sitting Colvin (893 OPS) and Soto (.402 OBP, 862 OPS) in favor of Fukudome (.320 SLG with 1 HR since May 1st) and Hill (586 OPS) because...well, I don't know why.

 

Buccos vs. Tom Gorzelanny (2-5, 3.41; 1-0, 5.23 all-time vs. Pirates)
Tabata 7, LaRoche 4, McCutchen 8, Jones 3, Doumit 2, Alvarez 5, Milledge 9, Cedeno 6, Lincoln 1

Cubs vs. Brad Lincoln (0-2, 6.00; first appearance vs. Cubs)
Fukudome 9, Fontenot 4, Byrd 8, Lee 3, Ramirez 5, Soriano 7, Hill 2, Castro 6, Gorzelanny 1

Tags: 
Ted Lilly
Former Cubs Players
Submitted by Cubnut on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 10:44am
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Comments

Submitted by big_lowitzki
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 11:07am

I was at the game last night, and when Hill hit his second double, I think my quote was something like, "Damnit! Now Lou will think that Hill can hit and he'll get more undeserved playing time."

Submitted by jacos
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 11:51am

and catching after a night game too.

Submitted by Mike Wellman
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 12:04pm

i was @ the game monday night, sitting as far away from the team as possible; literally in the last row of the upper deck! only @ wrigley will one find consecutive seats in the middle of a row numbered 10 & 112...i thought ron santo's bounced first pitch in the pregame ceremony was a poignant moment...

Submitted by QuietMan
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 12:12pm

Red Sox and Rockies had scouts at last night's game.

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/i...

Levine on the radio said Lilly could block trades to eight teams.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 12:47pm

probably looking at Pirates players :)

Submitted by QuietMan
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 12:59pm

The Red Sox could have been checking out Koyie Hill. That would also explain the day start after a night game.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 1:02pm

more likely Soto, Hill's our starting catcher, we can't lose him.

/sarcasm
/slams head in door

Submitted by QuietMan
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 1:23pm

I wasn't exactly being serious about Hill.

Submitted by QuietMan
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 6:10pm

They did want Hill.

Just not Koyie.

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/...

Submitted by Charlie
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 1:17pm

I'd send them an outfielder not named Colvin. I'd even pay the shipping costs.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 1:34pm

Fukudome could be a decent fit for the Red Sox actually, Cubs just would have to pay most of it.

Submitted by Charlie
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 1:55pm

It'd make more sense for the Cubs to dump as much salary as possible rather than looking for a real player/prospect in return, wouldn't it?

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 2:51pm

When you mean "The Cubs" do you mean the owners' pocketbook or the organization's overall health?

Submitted by Charlie
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 3:01pm

Well, I'm assuming the Cubs can't afford to dump everybody they need to be rid of if they pay everybody's whole salary. They'll have to pay the players that end up actually playing for the team.

I would also think that Fukudome is just not valuable enough to be worth a good prospect even if he were essentially free. But I might be wrong about that. I overvalue prospects.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 3:56pm

I am not sure I am following your logic. There are 29 teams that will take Soriano at the major league minimum for 3 years. The Cubs could replace him with a major league minimum player for three years, making the payroll cost neutral.

The more money the Cubs pay, the better prospect they get back, just like it has been with every team trading high salaried veterans for the last five years.

Submitted by WISCGRAD
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 4:05pm

You think the Cubs should trade everyone and continue to pay their salaries, and then trot out a team of players making the major league minimum for the next 3 years, while they wait for prospects obtained in these deals to pan out (if they do)? Am I understanding you correctly?

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 6:14pm

Are you asking me or Charlie? Because that's what post 12 seems to indicate... sort of.

Submitted by WISCGRAD
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 8:56pm

Um, no, post 12 is pretty clearly the opposite of your post. Charlie is saying that the Cubs might be better off freeing payroll by trading high salary players for nothing, in exchange for the other team paying chunks of their salaries. The Cubs could then use this gained payroll to sign new players to replace them. They might be just as good, but cheaper, and not signed for as many years, etc.

You are suggesting instead that the Cubs trade the players but continue to pay all of their salaries, play players earning the major league minimum in their places so as not to put on payroll, but gain good prospects in return.

Submitted by Charlie
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 9:28pm

That's what I meant.

Though I didn't mean to suggest they'd do that with every high-paid player they would trade away. Just that they might have to do it with some.

And the money wouldn't necessarily go to free agents, though that's one place it might go. It could also go to arbitration eligible players, and young players who might get signed to extensions (though I'm not sure who is in that position yet).

Submitted by WISCGRAD
on Thu, 07/01/2010 - 7:40am

I would agree with you. I think freeing up some payroll would be good, for all of the things you mention above, and while prospects are nice, many don't pan out. So I would be happy if the Cubs just dumped some of these guys for payroll relief and some low-level prospects, rather than putting all of their hope in a Matt LaPorta type player panning out.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Thu, 07/01/2010 - 12:43am

I am not suggesting anything, captain oblivious, I am just trying to figure out what Charlie was asking.

As I pointed out, and obviously it needs to be repeated because you two don't get it: The Cubs are not operating in some 4th dimension. They have to play by the same rules as everyone else. The more salary they pay for the players they dump, the better prospects they get. The only other things that figure into the function are declining revenues and scarcity of roster spots.

Submitted by WISCGRAD
on Thu, 07/01/2010 - 7:37am

You do realize that you are pretty much the only one on here that resorts to name calling in posts, right? Jeez.

We are all aware that the Cubs play by the same rules as other teams and the more money you pay the more prospects you get back. No one above said anything to the contrary. I think you misread. We are simply trying to debate whether it makes sense to pay more and get prospects back or pay less and free up payroll. And we could have this discussion if you weren't insulting everyone.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Thu, 07/01/2010 - 9:52am

Sorry, when I am discussing something with someone and then someone else butts into the conversation and starts putting words into my mouth, I think that's rude. I guess we were just brought up differently. If we were having the conversation face-to-face I would give you a look that says "what the fuck are you doing? Go away." but I can't do that here.

Going back to the origal post, #12. The answer is no. No, it does not make sense for the Cubs to pay all of Soriano's contract to get an A quality prospect back, because you can't expect that prospect to do better than Soriano for league minimum.

Submitted by big_lowitzki
on Thu, 07/01/2010 - 10:47am

You are on a blog. Its a public conversation.

And The Real Neal lecturing someone else on what is rude? Priceless.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Thu, 07/01/2010 - 12:51pm

I hope posting this made you feel better about yourself.

Submitted by big_lowitzki
on Thu, 07/01/2010 - 2:29pm

yup... much better.

Submitted by Ryno
on Fri, 07/02/2010 - 10:04am

http://www.marriedtothesea.com/062610/first-p...

Submitted by big_lowitzki
on Fri, 07/02/2010 - 10:57am

Sweet! I'm going to print that out and put it on my wall!

Submitted by VirginiaPhil
on Fri, 07/02/2010 - 12:22pm

What has always struck me is the PR implications of these player dumps. Fukudome is still owed, I don't know, $21 million. Suppose the Cubs shipped him to Boston along with $11 million. If they didn't get a prospect in return, fans would say that Fukudome was only worth half of what Hendry was paying him.

With a prospect in the deal, you can't be sure what the prospect is worth, so you can't say what Fukudome is worth.

I would say the prospect is in the deal to make it smell better.

I thought it was amusing when the Bulls traded Hinrich and a draft pick for nothing. But at least they weren't shelling out, and everyone knew it was all about their pitch to Lebron.

Submitted by Rob Richardson
on Fri, 07/02/2010 - 1:54pm

Didn't the commissioners' office veto the trading of players for only money when Finley tried it in 1976?

If my memory of history is correct, since you can't trade draft picks that only leaves propspects that must me returned for a salary dump.

http://www.sportsecyclopedia.com/al/oakland/o...

“Finley was not done just before the June 15th trading deadline he attempted to sell Vida Blue to the New York Yankees, at the same time he sold Rollie Fingers and Joe Rudi to the Red Sox. With A's in Boston Fingers, and Rudi wore a Red Sox uniform but never entered the game. The next day Commissioner Bowie Kuhn refused to allow the deals and all the players returned to Oakland.”

Submitted by VirginiaPhil
on Sun, 07/04/2010 - 7:25pm

". . . the trading of players for only money . . ."

In this case, the Cubs would be sending the player and the money.

The player and a Brinks truck, I should say.

Submitted by Dr. aaron b
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 4:35pm

Does anyone on this team NOT have a NTC?

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 4:40pm

Jim Hendry.

Submitted by SheffieldCornelia
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 1:47pm

Anyone have any idea if Gorzelanny is on a pitch count today?

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 2:50pm

I would be surprised if he goes more than 90 pitches. But Lou will probably forget that he's been out of the rotation, so expect 110 if he's sharp enough.

Submitted by Rob Richardson
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 2:51pm

Pulled out for a PH at 77 pitches.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 1:59pm

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/06/29...

cool piece on Rivera's cutter

Submitted by Charlie
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 3:21pm

With the two hits today, A-Ram now has a higher June OPS than either DLee or Soriano. I'm not saying it means anything, because he hasn't come to the plate that much, except of course that nobody in this lineup is doing much aside from Byrd. Even Colvin's June numbers aren't that great.

Submitted by jacos
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 3:23pm

what a dead ass team.

Submitted by Ahone Ahtwo Ahthree
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 3:51pm

To quote the Japanese guys "Major League", they're shitty!!!

Submitted by billybucks
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 3:32pm

Looks like that Konerko HR really messed up Cashner. Hasn't been the same pitcher the last 2 times out.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 3:42pm

he'd be better if they didn't make errors behind him.

Submitted by jacos
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 3:41pm

so will there be any major changes after they are swept by reds this week end?

Submitted by The E-Man
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 3:43pm

Short answer: no.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 3:43pm

yup, Lou will pace instead of sit during the games and the lineup card will be carried out by an adorable labrador puppy.

Submitted by Rob Richardson
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 3:45pm

Ooooooo a puppy!

Submitted by crunch
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 5:35pm

neat! about time...

Submitted by Charlie
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 5:51pm

Anything that results in Lou burning extra calories is a plus.

Lou's fat, is what I'm saying. I just want to make sure everyone is aware that he's fat. He's a fat old man. I would make a senility joke too, if someone had provided an opening.

Submitted by QuietMan
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 4:00pm

Hotel/apartments/retail bulding across from Wrigley gets approved.

http://newsblogs.chicagotribune.com/clout_st/...

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 4:01pm

3-9 against the Pirates

Dotel has 16 saves out of 27 Pirate wins, 7 against the Cubs.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 4:04pm

This should cheer everyone up

http://cdn.nextround.net/wp-content/uploads/2...

Submitted by Jumbo
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 6:13pm

All that video needs is some naked hotties and it would be perfect. Very funny
Honestly, I was expecting boobs.

Submitted by The Joe
on Thu, 07/01/2010 - 1:18am

That's my favorite animated gif ever.

I still say Pablo is the greatest athlete in the history of the world, though...even though, thankfully, I didn't keep him.

Submitted by navigator
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 5:02pm

The numbers are in: Fukudome totals 1 extra base hit and 1 RBI in June.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 6:15pm

The number are in. Going into last night's game, Fukudome has driven in a higher % of base runners than anyone else on the Cubs.

Submitted by WISCGRAD
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 9:07pm

If that is supposed to be a rebuttal, it fails. Navigator is pointing out that Fukudome has sucked in June. The stat you cite is driven largely by his 16 RBI in April. We all know he starts out well. His % of runners driven will drop as the season goes on just as it always does. He has hit .344 in April, .253 in May, and .200 in June.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Thu, 07/01/2010 - 6:18am

I flipped a coin three times and it came up heads every time... therefore the coin will come up heads if I flip it 2,000 times.

Submitted by Jumbo
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 7:16pm

According to Fangraphs
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/th...

They took paragraphs and used some stats to say it, and it's true. Pitchers are not afraid of him. Why would they be? Maybe he should start pulling the ball again

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 7:35pm

good stuff but lines like this drive me fucking nuts...

Theriot needs to knock more than two extra-base hits a month and stop putting himself at the mercy of the pitcher.

no fucking shit. And Aramis needs to hit some home runs once in awhile. Lee should rest his neck and reverse the age cycle. Soriano shouldn't swing at bad pitches, etc, etc, etc...

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 7:55pm

You should post that over there.

The question to me is, why don't more Juan Pierre's of the world get the exact same treatment?

Yesterday Theriot inside outed a pitch that was 6 inches off the inside corner of the plate - I've never seen that done before.

Submitted by VirginiaPhil
on Fri, 07/02/2010 - 12:32pm

Yeah, his stroke that produces ground-ball hits to the right side works best with inside pitches.

It's the perversity of a hitter who has to be careful not to hit a ball on the nose, because if he does, the left fielder doesn't have to move.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 8:13pm

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/giants-ran...

Molina to Rangers for Chris Davis or Saltalamacchia

-correction- apparently not getting Davis or Salty

Submitted by Sweet Lou
on Wed, 06/30/2010 - 9:06pm

For Chris Ray and a PTBNL.

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/daily...

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Thu, 07/01/2010 - 12:44am

Correction for Johny Ray and Juan Samuel's kid.

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