Game Preview: The Hapless Cubs vs. The Surging Giants

The things you miss not caring about this team...

The Little Cajun That Could was traded to the Giants yesterday for speedy center fielder Evan Crawford. The two reports I read on him are hardly flattering...beyond his speed.

In terms of pitch selection, Crawford is not afraid to work deep counts. However, I’d attribute this more to laying off all offspeed offerings to hide a weakness and not good pitch selection. Crawford looks for the first decent fastball middle-in and tries to yank it down the line. When he’s forced to fight off pitches with two strikes, I’ve seen curveballs make him look silly in the box.

Considering it was a waiver wire deal, you can't expect much to receive much for Mike Fontenot anyway. Darwin Barney has been called up to take Fontenot's spot on the roster.

Geovany Soto went to the disabled list and Derrek Lee is tending to his grandfather, paving the way for Micah Hoffpauir and Welington Castillo to get called up.

All of this was news to me this morning.

The Cubs are currently the proud owners of the 7th spot in the draft and just 2.5 games from the 4th spot, with a little work I think they could even manage to catch the Mariners for the third spot.

As for today's game, the power hitting, but OBP challenged Colvin is leading off, it's like those two two plus years of Soriano in the leadoff spot never happened:  lf colvin, ss castro, rf fuke, cf byrd, 1b nady, 2b dewitt, 3b baker, c hill, p wells

One last piece of fun, Cubs OBI%(Other Baserunners Driven In) this year via Baseball Prospectus. It really should be the go-to stat when folks talk about driving in runners. If I ever accomplish anything with this blog, it will be making this stat more widely accepted and known. The best in the league will be in the low 20's and anything in the 15-17% range is acceptable to good and just like BABIP or many of the rate stats out there, it does fluxuate widely from year to year, but the power hitters who can put the ball in play will tend to be more consistent from year-to-year. For comparison, here's the Cubs in 2008.

Castro
16.3%
Soto
16%
 Soriano 15.7%
 Ramirez 15.3%
 Lee 14.3%
Byrd
13.9%
Fukudome
13.4%
 Nady 12.9%
Colvin
12.0%
Theriot
10.4%
Baker 9.6%

The real treat here is that Soto has batted 7th or 8th most of the year, while being the best Cubs run producer. I know, nothing ground-breaking in terms of information, but still fascinatingly inept to witness.

Comments

Do the Cubs realize that Evan Crawford is neither Evan Longoria nor Carl Crawford?

i think the greatest benefit from the trade...unless the cubs are f'n sly...is saving a few 100K and having a chance at a 4th OFr if he progresses his game.

"The real treat here is that Soto has batted 7th or 8th most of the year, while being the best Cubs run producer."

when it comes to RBIs it helps when the batters in front of him can hit...unlike what the 5/6 hitters got from the 3/4 slot most of the year.

it helps if they can get on-base....

but when it comes to RBI's, it's a matter of opportunities and then driving them in, the table in the post lays it our as clearly as can be.

There's nothing ambiguous here.

That being said, a 2 percentage point difference isn't huge or anything, but given Soto's OBP/SLG and OBI% numbers, just a gross waste of resources this year.

If Soto maintained his pace of driving in runs, and had the same number of opportunities that Lee had, he would have 9 more RBI's.

A couple of other nuances that OBI% doesn't look at is intentional walks (and pitch arounds) and the number of outs that a batter has when he comes to the plate. I would think it's much better to be a 3rd and 4th hitter than a 5th hitter when driving in runners on third base.

That doesn't impact OBI%, which is Rob's point.

it's just an aside...he actually had people in front of him getting on base he could smack in and lingered in the 7/8 slot. it was/is fun fun stuff.

Wonder how many RBI's our lead off hitter might have from another spot in the batting order. He's 10th in the majors in home run frequency with 1 HR every 15.27 AB

yeah, he's not a 1/2 hitter f'sure.

that said, i think (no proof) he's hitting up front with castro in order for them to get maximum ABs to be polished for 2011. it's not uncommon to do this, anyway.

Yeah, I don't care where he's hitting because a) I want them to lose games and b) I want the kids to get experience.

Bear in mind, Lou is managing. I doubt he's paying enough attention to think about AB's for rookies. His own reason is "what're ya gonna do?"

i'm cutting him slack on this one because he's putting both guys up top.

why colvin is batting in front of castro most of the time is the only odd part to me. neither are gonna take walks i guess.

colvin with 9bb batting 1/2 over 150ab

castro with 2bb batting 1/2 over 143ab (most all in #2 slot)

that said, i think (no proof) he's hitting up front with castro in order for them to get maximum ABs to be polished for 2011. it's not uncommon to do this, anyway.

it is in the majors and if they wanted maximum Ab's for him, they wouldn't have sat him the last few days cause he was struggling.

he's there out of laziness and some vague "necessity" they keep harping on...

it's in the majors but the cubs are out of it as hell and then some.

i don't pretend to understand the dynamics of a lou lineup, though. he's not as predictable as some managers year to year...like his pen management it can be kinda skitzo.

From Bruce Miles:

"He’s (Colvin) in the leadoff spot out of necessity, and it’s a challenge for the kid. In talking with some Cubs people last weekend, they can see him in the fifth spot next year."

http://blogs.dailyherald.com/node/4503

Sandoval "The Fat" just got a triple. That always makes me think of the cake animated gif.

I love Pablo.

Was there an earthquake in SF?

555. Reminds me of Z barreling around the bases in spring training.

Wow, the Fat is having a day.

Mike Fontenot 17.3%
Castro 16.3%
Soto 16%
Soriano 15.7%
Ramirez15.3%
Lee 14.3%
Byrd 13.9%
Fukudome 13.4%
Nady 12.9%
Colvin 12.0%
Theriot 10.4%
Baker 9.6%

I meant to do 200 PA's, but then I decided on 150 and forgot to put Fontenot back in.

thanks.

holy crap castro...dont set up on the side or back of the bag...again...when trying to make a SB play.

As a Cubs fan, it's kind of fun to watch Burrell and Huff chase fly balls. If I were a Giants fan I would be suffering daily heart attacks.

well now...3-7...awesome.

go cubs.

Aw, look. They're trying to win a game. Ain't that cute?

i could go for a nice 15-20 inning time waster.

6-7 now.

...and we have tie.

theriot lite getting his debut at 2nd in the bottom 9th.

well that sucked.

Castro is good, the Cubs are awful.

I think they can stop putting Cashner in the Cubs "3 top rookies to build around" talk for now. His control is poor and he's very hittable right now (when he does get the ball over the plate).

burn him.

burn him like the witch he is...

high walk rate, mediocre K rate at the moment, probably could use some more minor league seasoning imo.

I think he could use regular work, his control has just gotten worse and worse since he got called up.

Treat him like the Cubs treat Szmarj. Rush him along because you have a lot of money tied up in him. He's a starter. No, he's a reliever. Promote him before he's earned the promotion. No, he's a starter. Send hime back down. Maybe he's a reliever. Promomte him when he gets couple guys out. That didn't work. Make a starter out of him again. Send him down. Jerk him around until he doesn't know what in hell is happening.

I thought you were talking about the Bears for a moment. Hahaha. That's how they treat half their roster.

Unfortunately the Cubs do the same thing with any good prospect hitters.

As soon as they reach AA, start the shuttle back and forth to Wrigley. At least until the kid is out of options. Then trade em for PTBNL's or weak prospects.

I really don't see much difference between minor league Cashner and Cubs Cashner. Overall he's been a 7K/9--5BB/9 pitcher on the farm. So far he's doing 6/6 with the Cubs.

He's got one pitch, working on a second. This is Samardzija junior. Not ready for prime time.

overall he's been a 7.8 K/9 (most educated folks round that up to 8) and a 4.1 BB/9 minor league pitchers (most folks round that to 4).

fastball seems straight more than anything as well as not located well and at least fangraphs pitch value seems to support that...if I'm reading that right.

the folks I trust around here seem to think it's more a lack of not using his changeup much so they don't sit on his fastball rather than a lack of a slider.

You trust people around here?

Rob left me TCR in his will.

Because he hates you.

Ha! Sounds right.

anybody think Marquis Smith has mlb potential or upside, he has gotten his average over .300 at Iowa

I was hoping he'd do well this year, but when AramRam went down he was hitting like .215. His potential seems to be a second division starter, but we never thought Casey McGhee was going to go even that far.

I saw him in one game against Round Rock and he actually looks like a real good hitter to me. Unfortunately, he also looked like a pretty hapless third baseman. Maybe it was just a bad game, though -- you can't put too much in one game, but he really looked bad in a couple of routine plays.

EDIT: The same should be said of course about the hitting. Showed some good power though and I think he knocked one out that day.

Funny, because his rep is that he's a really good defensive third basemen who may never have the bat. I envisioned him as maybe a Terry Pendleton type if he put it all together.

.935 fielding percentage at third this year, .939 career. I agree with you about his rep, or at least I remember reading that he was a sponge at third. Wet sponge or dry, I guess is the question.

After watching him that September with the Cubs I thought he played well enough to be considered a decent utility guy, since he could play several positions. I didn't expect him to become a solid everyday player at any position. But it was still a bonehead move to put him on waivers.

tonite

fuku-rf

castro-ss

lee-1b

byrd-cf

dewitt-3rd

sori

barney-2nd

hill-c

Is it bad that I am wishing for more of Lee's relatives to pass away?

Barney gets a start, that's cool.

In the last week, the offense has gotten to Carpenter, Cain, Zito and Lincecum - not too shabby.

Recent comments

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  • Phil, I just wanted to say thank you for diligently tracking the Cubs prospects in extended spring training and sharing your knowledge with us. It's remarkable how you're able to keep box scores for multiple games at once. I, and I'm sure others here, appreciate the data and insight you provide for us.

    K Dub 2 hours 16 min ago view
  • Thanks PHIL.

    Boy, that is a nifty K:BB ratio Hudson has going at almost 4:1!

    I hope he continues improving.

    The E-Man 8 hours 14 min ago view
  • And of course the Bucs won again playing AZ (not PHIL). They dont seem to have a problem yet with the bottom feeders.

    They picked up 3 games this last week.

    I'm looking forward to them coming to the Chi.

    The E-Man 8 hours 42 min ago view
  • Don't mess with the SI jinx. Since the Javy/Cubs cover came out, he is 2-for-20 with no walks.

    billybucks 8 hours 52 min ago view
  • BRADSBEARD: If all three are assigned to Eugene, the Cubs can play Galindo, Paredes, and Paniagua at the same time by moving Paredes between SS-3B-DH, Galindo between 3B-1B-DH, and Paniagua between 1B-LF-DH. 

    The Cubs like to have their players (including their minor leaguers) learn to play more than one position even if they eventually are projected to settle at one spot, and I suspect that will be reflected at Eugene, with just about everybody who will be assigned there able to play at least two positions. 

    Arizona Phil 9 hours 13 min ago view
  • Thanks - at least the scorer was consistent

    Eric S 9 hours 26 min ago view
  • I don't think the error call was completely out of the blue but the ball took a very bad hop and would have taken a very good play to get it. Same with one of the Stella throws where I think it could have easily been ruled a hit. Neither were cut and dry calls though imo.

    johann 9 hours 55 min ago view
  • chased a high fastball...

    I think his BABIP during his run has been around .950

    Rob G. 10 hours 12 min ago view
  • Great stuff CubbyBlue!!! I think it inspired today's six spot as well.

    Eric S 10 hours 15 min ago view
  • That's all fine and good, but I think it's short-changing the Arrieta-like affect of his beard

    Eric S 10 hours 19 min ago view
  • Was the error scored on Zobrist's third ab ruled correctly? Ron was saying that it was a pretty tough chance for the fielder

    Eric S 10 hours 28 min ago view
  • Did anybody see that Zobrist strikeout?

    That was extremely disappointing.

    Old and Blue 12 hours 4 min ago view
  • Strangest win of the year, and one of the sweetest. Twice I thought it was easily in the bag, then after the first 2 hitters in the 9th I thought all was lost. Big game for Grimm, Strop & Rondon. But, man, those Cards can hit for power.

    billybucks 12 hours 39 min ago view
  • Very satisfying, gut-check win today. The beers on the trip back to Chicago are going to taste fantastic.

    Eric S 12 hours 55 min ago view
  • It's still very early but this game felt very important to me and probably knocked 2 years off my life. Seemed like every inning was big.

    johann 13 hours 42 min ago view
  • Yes then they moved him two spot then not so much, back batting 7th

    jacos 13 hours 42 min ago view