Game Preview: The Hapless Cubs vs. The Surging Giants

The things you miss not caring about this team...

The Little Cajun That Could was traded to the Giants yesterday for speedy center fielder Evan Crawford. The two reports I read on him are hardly flattering...beyond his speed.

In terms of pitch selection, Crawford is not afraid to work deep counts. However, I’d attribute this more to laying off all offspeed offerings to hide a weakness and not good pitch selection. Crawford looks for the first decent fastball middle-in and tries to yank it down the line. When he’s forced to fight off pitches with two strikes, I’ve seen curveballs make him look silly in the box.

Considering it was a waiver wire deal, you can't expect much to receive much for Mike Fontenot anyway. Darwin Barney has been called up to take Fontenot's spot on the roster.

Geovany Soto went to the disabled list and Derrek Lee is tending to his grandfather, paving the way for Micah Hoffpauir and Welington Castillo to get called up.

All of this was news to me this morning.

The Cubs are currently the proud owners of the 7th spot in the draft and just 2.5 games from the 4th spot, with a little work I think they could even manage to catch the Mariners for the third spot.

As for today's game, the power hitting, but OBP challenged Colvin is leading off, it's like those two two plus years of Soriano in the leadoff spot never happened:  lf colvin, ss castro, rf fuke, cf byrd, 1b nady, 2b dewitt, 3b baker, c hill, p wells

One last piece of fun, Cubs OBI%(Other Baserunners Driven In) this year via Baseball Prospectus. It really should be the go-to stat when folks talk about driving in runners. If I ever accomplish anything with this blog, it will be making this stat more widely accepted and known. The best in the league will be in the low 20's and anything in the 15-17% range is acceptable to good and just like BABIP or many of the rate stats out there, it does fluxuate widely from year to year, but the power hitters who can put the ball in play will tend to be more consistent from year-to-year. For comparison, here's the Cubs in 2008.

Castro
 16.3%
Soto
16%
 Soriano 15.7%
 Ramirez 15.3%
 Lee 14.3%
Byrd
13.9%
Fukudome
13.4%
 Nady 12.9%
Colvin
12.0%
Theriot
10.4%
Baker 9.6%

The real treat here is that Soto has batted 7th or 8th most of the year, while being the best Cubs run producer. I know, nothing ground-breaking in terms of information, but still fascinatingly inept to witness.

Tags: 
Cubs Game Preview
Submitted by Rob G. on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 12:57pm
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Comments

Submitted by O.Julius
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 1:06pm

Do the Cubs realize that Evan Crawford is neither Evan Longoria nor Carl Crawford?

Submitted by crunch
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 2:00pm

i think the greatest benefit from the trade...unless the cubs are f'n sly...is saving a few 100K and having a chance at a 4th OFr if he progresses his game.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 1:30pm

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5...

Submitted by crunch
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 1:59pm

"The real treat here is that Soto has batted 7th or 8th most of the year, while being the best Cubs run producer."

when it comes to RBIs it helps when the batters in front of him can hit...unlike what the 5/6 hitters got from the 3/4 slot most of the year.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 2:04pm

it helps if they can get on-base....

but when it comes to RBI's, it's a matter of opportunities and then driving them in, the table in the post lays it our as clearly as can be.

There's nothing ambiguous here.

That being said, a 2 percentage point difference isn't huge or anything, but given Soto's OBP/SLG and OBI% numbers, just a gross waste of resources this year.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 2:38pm

If Soto maintained his pace of driving in runs, and had the same number of opportunities that Lee had, he would have 9 more RBI's.

A couple of other nuances that OBI% doesn't look at is intentional walks (and pitch arounds) and the number of outs that a batter has when he comes to the plate. I would think it's much better to be a 3rd and 4th hitter than a 5th hitter when driving in runners on third base.

Submitted by big_lowitzki
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 2:08pm

That doesn't impact OBI%, which is Rob's point.

Submitted by crunch
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 2:42pm

it's just an aside...he actually had people in front of him getting on base he could smack in and lingered in the 7/8 slot. it was/is fun fun stuff.

Submitted by chuck
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 3:45pm

Wonder how many RBI's our lead off hitter might have from another spot in the batting order. He's 10th in the majors in home run frequency with 1 HR every 15.27 AB

Submitted by crunch
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 3:59pm

yeah, he's not a 1/2 hitter f'sure.

that said, i think (no proof) he's hitting up front with castro in order for them to get maximum ABs to be polished for 2011. it's not uncommon to do this, anyway.

Submitted by The Joe
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 4:02pm

Yeah, I don't care where he's hitting because a) I want them to lose games and b) I want the kids to get experience.

Bear in mind, Lou is managing. I doubt he's paying enough attention to think about AB's for rookies. His own reason is "what're ya gonna do?"

Submitted by crunch
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 4:10pm

i'm cutting him slack on this one because he's putting both guys up top.

why colvin is batting in front of castro most of the time is the only odd part to me. neither are gonna take walks i guess.

colvin with 9bb batting 1/2 over 150ab

castro with 2bb batting 1/2 over 143ab (most all in #2 slot)

Submitted by Rob G.
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 5:06pm

that said, i think (no proof) he's hitting up front with castro in order for them to get maximum ABs to be polished for 2011. it's not uncommon to do this, anyway.

it is in the majors and if they wanted maximum Ab's for him, they wouldn't have sat him the last few days cause he was struggling.

he's there out of laziness and some vague "necessity" they keep harping on...

Submitted by crunch
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 5:33pm

it's in the majors but the cubs are out of it as hell and then some.

i don't pretend to understand the dynamics of a lou lineup, though. he's not as predictable as some managers year to year...like his pen management it can be kinda skitzo.

Submitted by QuietMan
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 4:45pm

From Bruce Miles:

"He’s (Colvin) in the leadoff spot out of necessity, and it’s a challenge for the kid. In talking with some Cubs people last weekend, they can see him in the fifth spot next year."

http://blogs.dailyherald.com/node/4503

Submitted by The Joe
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 3:24pm

Sandoval "The Fat" just got a triple. That always makes me think of the cake animated gif.

I love Pablo.

Submitted by big_lowitzki
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 3:44pm

Was there an earthquake in SF?

Submitted by The Joe
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 3:58pm

555. Reminds me of Z barreling around the bases in spring training.

Submitted by The Joe
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 4:08pm

Wow, the Fat is having a day.

Submitted by navigator
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 3:53pm

Mike Fontenot 17.3%
Castro 16.3%
Soto 16%
Soriano 15.7%
Ramirez15.3%
Lee 14.3%
Byrd 13.9%
Fukudome 13.4%
Nady 12.9%
Colvin 12.0%
Theriot 10.4%
Baker 9.6%

Submitted by Rob G.
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 5:02pm

I meant to do 200 PA's, but then I decided on 150 and forgot to put Fontenot back in.

thanks.

Submitted by crunch
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 4:24pm

holy crap castro...dont set up on the side or back of the bag...again...when trying to make a SB play.

Submitted by Paul Noce
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 4:45pm

As a Cubs fan, it's kind of fun to watch Burrell and Huff chase fly balls. If I were a Giants fan I would be suffering daily heart attacks.

Submitted by crunch
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 4:31pm

well now...3-7...awesome.

go cubs.

Submitted by Ryno
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 5:25pm

Aw, look. They're trying to win a game. Ain't that cute?

Submitted by crunch
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 5:27pm

i could go for a nice 15-20 inning time waster.

6-7 now.

Submitted by crunch
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 5:32pm

...and we have tie.

Submitted by crunch
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 5:54pm

theriot lite getting his debut at 2nd in the bottom 9th.

Submitted by crunch
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 6:01pm

well that sucked.

Submitted by WISCGRAD
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 6:05pm

Castro is good, the Cubs are awful.

Submitted by Paul Noce
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 6:20pm

I think they can stop putting Cashner in the Cubs "3 top rookies to build around" talk for now. His control is poor and he's very hittable right now (when he does get the ball over the plate).

Submitted by Rob G.
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 6:32pm

burn him.

burn him like the witch he is...

high walk rate, mediocre K rate at the moment, probably could use some more minor league seasoning imo.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 6:52pm

I think he could use regular work, his control has just gotten worse and worse since he got called up.

Submitted by chuck
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 8:47pm

Treat him like the Cubs treat Szmarj. Rush him along because you have a lot of money tied up in him. He's a starter. No, he's a reliever. Promote him before he's earned the promotion. No, he's a starter. Send hime back down. Maybe he's a reliever. Promomte him when he gets couple guys out. That didn't work. Make a starter out of him again. Send him down. Jerk him around until he doesn't know what in hell is happening.

Submitted by Paul Noce
on Fri, 08/13/2010 - 2:25am

I thought you were talking about the Bears for a moment. Hahaha. That's how they treat half their roster.

Submitted by Dr. aaron b
on Fri, 08/13/2010 - 11:05am

Unfortunately the Cubs do the same thing with any good prospect hitters.

As soon as they reach AA, start the shuttle back and forth to Wrigley. At least until the kid is out of options. Then trade em for PTBNL's or weak prospects.

Submitted by navigator
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 8:45pm

I really don't see much difference between minor league Cashner and Cubs Cashner. Overall he's been a 7K/9--5BB/9 pitcher on the farm. So far he's doing 6/6 with the Cubs.

He's got one pitch, working on a second. This is Samardzija junior. Not ready for prime time.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 10:34pm

overall he's been a 7.8 K/9 (most educated folks round that up to 8) and a 4.1 BB/9 minor league pitchers (most folks round that to 4).

fastball seems straight more than anything as well as not located well and at least fangraphs pitch value seems to support that...if I'm reading that right.

the folks I trust around here seem to think it's more a lack of not using his changeup much so they don't sit on his fastball rather than a lack of a slider.

Submitted by Old and Blue
on Fri, 08/13/2010 - 7:26am

You trust people around here?

Submitted by The Joe
on Fri, 08/13/2010 - 1:13pm

Rob left me TCR in his will.

Submitted by Jackstraw
on Sat, 08/14/2010 - 10:39am

Because he hates you.

Submitted by The Joe
on Sat, 08/14/2010 - 1:11pm

Ha! Sounds right.

Submitted by jacos
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 9:31pm

F U hendry
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/recap;_ylt=AqwxMJ...

Submitted by Cubster
on Thu, 08/12/2010 - 9:31pm

anybody think Marquis Smith has mlb potential or upside, he has gotten his average over .300 at Iowa

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Fri, 08/13/2010 - 6:19am

I was hoping he'd do well this year, but when AramRam went down he was hitting like .215. His potential seems to be a second division starter, but we never thought Casey McGhee was going to go even that far.

Submitted by Old and Blue
on Fri, 08/13/2010 - 11:12am

I saw him in one game against Round Rock and he actually looks like a real good hitter to me. Unfortunately, he also looked like a pretty hapless third baseman. Maybe it was just a bad game, though -- you can't put too much in one game, but he really looked bad in a couple of routine plays.

EDIT: The same should be said of course about the hitting. Showed some good power though and I think he knocked one out that day.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Fri, 08/13/2010 - 12:21pm

Funny, because his rep is that he's a really good defensive third basemen who may never have the bat. I envisioned him as maybe a Terry Pendleton type if he put it all together.

Submitted by VirginiaPhil
on Fri, 08/13/2010 - 2:51pm

.935 fielding percentage at third this year, .939 career. I agree with you about his rep, or at least I remember reading that he was a sponge at third. Wet sponge or dry, I guess is the question.

Submitted by Paul Noce
on Fri, 08/13/2010 - 7:00pm

After watching him that September with the Cubs I thought he played well enough to be considered a decent utility guy, since he could play several positions. I didn't expect him to become a solid everyday player at any position. But it was still a bonehead move to put him on waivers.

Submitted by jacos
on Fri, 08/13/2010 - 4:33pm

tonite

fuku-rf

castro-ss

lee-1b

byrd-cf

dewitt-3rd

sori

barney-2nd

hill-c

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Fri, 08/13/2010 - 6:54pm

Is it bad that I am wishing for more of Lee's relatives to pass away?

Barney gets a start, that's cool.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Sat, 08/14/2010 - 6:35pm

In the last week, the offense has gotten to Carpenter, Cain, Zito and Lincecum - not too shabby.

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