Cubs Post-2010 into 2011 Spring Training Roster Projections
This is (of course) very much subject to change, but as things stand right now, here are the projected roster and payroll for the Cubs circa post-season 2010 into Spring Training 2011.
The Cubs already have $98.275M committed to nine players for 2011, and if they offer arbitration to all seven players who will eligible post-2010, that should add about another $15M to the 2011 payroll. NOTE: I do not pro-rate signing bonuses (spread the bonus out equally over the length of the contract) unless the bonus is actually paid-out that way.
With nine players signed for 2011 plus seven more eligible for salary arbitration post-2010, nine "auto-renewal" players would be needed to fill-out the Opening Day 25-man roster. These nine players would make the MLB minimum salary ($400K) or a bit more, and so that's about another $4M added to the 2011 payroll.
And then another $1M in payroll would be needed for players on the 40-man roster who are receiving a minor league split salary while on optional assignment to the minors, and that brings the estimated projected 2010 Cubs payroll to a grand total of approximately $118M.
That $118M does not include any payroll that might be allocated to signing free-agents from other clubs. It also does not address the actuial Cubs 2011 Payroll Budget, since that figure probably has not been determined yet, and once it is, it will be a closely-guarded secret.
What we do know is that the Cubs saved about $7M in 2010 payroll during the course of the 2010 season, by re-structuring and back-loading Ryan Dempster's contract, and trading Ted Lilly, Derrek Lee, and Ryan Theriot, and some of that $7M in 2010 payroll savings might be applied toward the 2011 payroll.
I think it's likely that the Cubs will non-tender two players (possibly three) eligible for salary arbitration (Angel Guzman and Koyie Hill, and possibly Jeff Baker) on 12-12-2010, but that would only save the Cubs about $2M-$3M in 2011 payroll, bringing the projected grand total down to about $115M-$116M.
There are presently 40 players on the Cubs MLB Reserve List (40-man roster), plus one player (roster exemption) on the 60-day Disabled List. When MLB Active Lists expand from 25 to 40 players on September 1st, the Cubs will (barring a medical setback) reactivate RHP Carlos Silva (cardiac) and RHP Esmailin Caridad (elbow) from the 15-day Disabled List (both are presently on minor league rehab assignments), and, after the conclusion of the Pacific Coast League playoffs (the Iowa Cubs are in 1st place in their division), bring up somewhere around eight or nine players (most likely pitchers Mitch Atkins, Justin Berg, Jeff Gray, Jeff Samardzija, Brian Schlitter, and Jeff Stevens, catcher Welington Castillo, and outfielders Sam Fuld, and Brad Snyder) from the I-Cubs.
I think it's very possible that the Cubs will trade 1B-OF Xavier Nady (who will be an Article XX MLB free-agent post-2010) sometime before the post-season roster deadline midnight next Tuesday (8/31), and C Koyie Hill and IF-OF Jeff Baker (both eligible for salary arbitration post-2010) also could get traded, as contending clubs solidify their post-season rosters. If they aren't traded before the end of the season, both K. Hill and Baker would be 12/12 non-tender candidates, or one or both could even get outrighted to the minors in October (and if that happens, the player will almost certainly opt for free-agency).
Cubs minor leaguers eligible to be Rule 55 minor league free-agents post-2010 who are most-likely to be added to the Cubs 40-man roster over the next couple of months are C-IF Robinson Chirinos and OF Brad Snyder, with Snyder (who would be out of minor league options once he is added to an MLB 40-man roster) likely to get promoted to the big club in September to find out ASAP what he has to offer at the big league level.
Cubs minor leaguers eligible for selection in the December 2010 Rule 5 Draft who are most-likely to be added to the Cubs 40-man roster by the 11/20 deadline are RHP Chris Archer (lock), OF Brandon Guyer (virtual lock), 3B Marquez Smith (probable), and C-1B Steve Clevenger and IF-OF Matt Camp (possible), although it's unlikely that any of this group will get a ticket to Wrigley Field in September. (Archer will be pitching for the Mesa Solar Sox in the Arizona Fall League, and Guyer and M. Smith are possible candidates to be assigned to the Solar Sox as well). Other candidates for the 40-man roster (especially pitchers) could emerge with an eye-popping performance in the AFL.
To make room for the new additions, at least four or possibly five players will need to be dropped from the 40-man roster post-2010, so it will be up to the ones "on the bubble" who get opportunities to pitch in the big leagues in September to have good showings. Possible candidates to get dropped from the 40 post-2010 include pitchers Mitch Atkins, Justin Berg, John Gaub, Jeff Gray (will be out of options in 2011), Scott Maine, Marcos Mateo, Blake Parker, and Brian Schlitter, 1B Micah Hoffpauir (will be out of options in 2011), and outfielders James Adduci and Sam Fuld (will be out of options in 2011). Of this group, Atkins, Berg, Gray, Mateo, Hoffpauir, Adduci, and Fuld would be eligible to be Rule 55 minor league free-agents if outrighted to the minors prior to signing a 2011 MLB contract, and Maine is a Draft-Excluded Player (he can be outrighted to the minors up until the 4th day following the conclusion of the World Series, otherwise not until 20 days prior to 2011 MLB Opening Day). Generally speaking and all things being equal, players who cannot be minor league free-agents if outrighted to the minors are the ones most-likely to be placed on waivers, because if they are not claimed, they do not have the option to be a free-agent until after the 2011 season or beyond.
So AS THINGS STAND RIGHT NOW, here is how the Cubs roster & payroll look post-2010 into Spring Training 2011...
ELIGIBLE TO BE ARTICLE XX-B MLB FREE-AGENT POST-2010:
Xavier Nady, 1B-OF
Aramis Ramirez, 3B (player option)
NOTE: MLB players eligible to be free-agents under Article XX of the CBA can file for free-agency only during the “Free-Agency Filing Period” (first 15 days after conclusion of the World Series).
During the 15-day “Free-Agency Filing Period,” MLB clubs retain exclusive negotiating rights with their own free-agents, although the other 29 MLB clubs can talk to the player about everything except money (they can discuss the benefits of playing in a particular city, how the player will be used, where the player will bat in the lineup or whether a pitcher will start or relieve, length of contract, no-trade rights, etc). Clubs then must decide by December 1st whether to offer salary arbitration to their own free-agents, and if they do offer salary arbitration, the player has until December 7th to accept or decline the offer.
If the club does offer salary arbitration to the free-agent and if the player is rated as a Type “A” or Type “B” free-agent, the player’s former club would receive one or two compensation draft picks in the next June’s Rule 4 Draft if the player signs with another club (two picks if the player is rated Type “A” and one pick if the player is rated Type “B”).
If the player’s former club does not offer salary arbitration on 12/1, the club can continue to negotiate with the player, but the club would not receive a compensation draft pick (or picks) if the player signs with another club.
ELIGIBLE TO BE ARTICLE XX-B MINOR LEAGUE FREE-AGENT POST-2010 (1):
Mike Parisi, RHP
NOTE: A minor league player eligible to be an Article XX-B free-agent is not eligible for free-agency if the player is added back to his club’s 40—man roster by the end of the MLB regular season. Clubs retain exclusive negotiating rights with their own Article XX-B minor league free-agents through October 15th. An Article XX-B minor league free-agent is free to sign a major league or minor league contract with any club (including the player’s former club) after October 15th, and the player’s former club does not receive any compensation if the player signs with a new club.
ELIGIBLE TO BE RULE 55 MINOR LEAGUE FREE-AGENT POST-2010 (16):
Adrian Aviles, OF-LHP (previously released by LAD)
Austin Bibens-Dirkx, RHP (previously released by SEA)
Russ Canzler, IF-OF
Robinson Chirinos, C-INF
Jason Dubois, 1B-OF
Mark Johnson, C (player-coach)
Bryan Lahair, 1B-OF
Antoni Lugo, 3B (previously released by CHW)
J. R. Mathes, LHP
Scott McClain, 3B (player-coach)
Mario Mercedes, C
Jonathan Mota, C-INF
Alvaro Ramirez, OF (previously released by NYY)
Mark Reed, C
Bobby Scales, IF-OF
Brad Snyder, OF
NOTE: Clubs retain exclusive negotiating rights with their own minor league free-agents until the end of the MLB Free-Agency Filing Period. If a minor league player eligible to be a Rule 55 FA is added to his club’s 40-man roster no later than the fourth day following the conclusion of the World Series, the player is not eligible to be a Rule 55 minor league FA. Also, any minor league FA who signs (or re-signs) with the Cubs prior to 12-9-2010 would be eligible for selection in the 2010 Rule 5 Draft.
ELIGIBLE FOR SELECTION IN DECEMBER 2010 RULE 5 DRAFT (37):
Chris Archer, RHP
Ryan Buchter, LHP
Kyler Burke, OF
Alberto Cabrera, RHP
Matt Camp, IF-OF
Marco Carrillo, RHP
Hung-Wen Chen, RHP
Steve Clevenger, C-1B
Manolin DeLeon, RHP
Marwin Gonzalez, IF-OF
Jose Guevara, C
Brandon Guyer, OF
Chris Huseby, RHP-OF
Dylan Johnston, RHP (ex-OF)
Blake Lalli, 1B-C
Casey Lambert, LHP
Jordan Latham, RHP
Alessandro Maestri, RHP
Oswaldo Martinez, RHP
Ronny Morla, RHP
Craig Muschko, RHP
Jake Muyco, RHP
Jeremy Papelbon, LHP
David Patton, RHP
Andres Quezada, RHP
Chris Robinson, C
Nate Samson, INF
Chris Siegfried, LHP
Kyle Smit, RHP
Marquez Smith, 3B-2B
Luke Sommer, LHP
Alvaro Sosa, RHP (ex-C)
Matt Spencer, 1B
Larry Suarez, RHP
Tony Thomas, 2B
Jose Valdez, OF
Ty Wright, OF
NOTE: If a player on this list is added to an MLB 40-man roster by 11-20-2010, the player is not eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft.
SIGNED FOR 2011 (9):
+ Player has NO TRADE rights
+ Alfonso Soriano - $18M
+ Carlos Zambrano - $17.875M
+ Ryan Dempster - $15M (contract was restructured)
+ Aramis Ramirez - $14.6M (player option)
+ Kosuke Fukudome - $13.5M
Carlos Silva - $6M (SEA pays $5.5M of Silva's $11.5M 2011 salary)
Marlon Byrd - $5.5M
John Grabow - $4.8M
+ Jeff Samardzija - $2.8M
2011 TOTAL: $98.275M
PROJECTED ELIGIBLE FOR SALARY ARBITRATION POST-2010 (7):
PROJECTED SUB-TOTAL: $15M
PROJECTED AUTO-RENEWAL (PRE-ARBITRATION) POST-2010 (24):
NOTE: 2011 MLB minimum salary will be $400K with a $65K minimum minor league “split salary” ($32.5K minimum “minor league split” for players with no MLB ST who are on 40-man roster for the first time). Also, a minor league split salary for an “auto-renewal” player must be at least 60% of what the player was actually paid in salary during the previous season.
PROJECTED ESTIMATED SUB-TOTAL: $5M (includes estimated $1M in minor league split salaries for players on Optional Assignment)
CUBS ESTIMATED PROJECTED TOTAL MLB PAYROLL – OPENING DAY 2011: $118M+
MINOR LEAGUE OPTION STATUS (SPRING TRAINING 2011):
Players who have accrued at least five years of MLB Service Time can decline an Optional Assignment to the minors, even if they have options left. The following players will have accrued less than five years of MLB Service Time through the 2010 season. A player who has accrued at least three years of MLB Service Time (Baker, Gorzelanny, A. Guzman, K. Hill, and Soto) or who has been outrighted to the minors previously in his career (Diamond and Wells) can decline an outright assignment and opt for free-agency instead
NOTE: Carlos Marmol and Sean Marshall have to clear Optional Assignment Waivers before they can be optioned to the minors, Blake DeWitt, Kosuke Fukudome, and Randy Wells would have to clear Optional Assignment Waivers before they can be optioned to the minors beginning on 3-31-2011, and Thomas Diamond would have to clear Optional Assignment Waivers before he can be optioned to the minors beginning on 4-17-2011.
NO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT in 2011:
Jeff Baker (also can decline Outright Assignment)
Tom Gorzelanny (also can decline Outright Assignment)
Angel Guzman (also can decline Outright Assignment)
Koyie Hill (also can decline Outright Assignment)
ONE MINOR LEAGUE OPTION LEFT in 2011:
Thomas Diamond (can decline Outright Assignment)
Sean Marshall (can decline Outright Assignment)
Carlos Marmol (can decline Outright Assignment)
Randy Wells (can decline Outright Assignment)
TWO MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT in 2010:
THREE MINOR LEAGUE OPTIONS LEFT in 2011:
Rafael Dolis (see NOTE)
Kosuke Fukudome (can decline Trade or Outright Assignment, and probably has the right to decline an Optional Assignment, too)
NOTE: Dolis has used one minor league option, but he has three options remaining because he is eligible for a 4th minor league option, as long as it is used prior to the 2014 season.
CUBS PROJECTED POST-2010 SEASON RESERVE LIST (40-MAN ROSTER):
* bats or throws left
# bats both
* Tom Gorzelanny
* John Grabow
Angel Guzman (likely 12/12 non-tender)
* John Gaub
* Scott Maine
* Sean Marshall
* James Russell
# Koyie Hill (likely 12/12 non-tender)
Jeff Baker (possible 12/12 non-tender)
* Blake DeWitt
* Micah Hoffpauir
Aramis Ramirez (player option)
* James Adduci
* Tyler Colvin
* Kosuke Fukudome
* Sam Fuld
POST-2010 MLB ARTICLE XX FREE-AGENTS (1 or 2):
Xavier Nady, OF
Aramis Ramirez, 3B (player option)
TOP CANDIDATES FOR 40-MAN ROSTER POST-2010
1. Chris Archer, P
2. Brandon Guyer, OF
3. * Brad Snyder, OF
4. Robinson Chirinos, C-INF
5. Marquez Smith, 3B
6. * Steve Clevenger, C-1B
7. Alberto Cabrera, P
8. * Matt Camp, IF-OF
9. Austin Bibens-Dirkx, P
10. Craig Muschko, P