2010 Playoff Predictions

My annual useless guess at how the playoffs will go. To my lucky credit, I did nail 6 of 8 playoff teams this year and all 4 A.L. teams. I was too bearish on the Braves and Reds, and too bullish on the Cubs(as usual) and Cardinals. To the playoff predictions...

NLDS

Phillies vs. Reds

I'd be pretty shocked like a lot of folks if the Phillies aren't representing the NL in the World Series and I imagine a lot of folks are expecting this to be over in 3 or 4 games. Just to be different I'll take the Phillies in 5.

Braves vs. Giants

Neither put up inspiring performances in playoff-like atmospheres the final weekend, but the Braves trio of pitchers have been logging some real heavy innings just to get the Braves to the playoffs and they'll be without Martin Prado. Plus a a Giants vs. Phillies LCS would be damn fun. I'll take the Giants in 4.

ALDS

Rangers vs. Rays

I don't know the numbers off the top of my head, but I believe whomever wins Game 1 of a five-game series wins an abundantly high percentage of them. With a Cliff Lee vs. David Price match-up it's a tough call. Normally I'd take Lee but if I heard the radio correctly last night, the Rays beat Lee three times this year. So I'll give the nod to the Rays in 5.

Yankees vs. Twins

I'd love to take the Twins and they seem to do just fine without Morneau for most of the year, but Yanks seem like the better team all-around. Yanks in 4.

LCS

Giants vs. Phillies

The Giants will have two lefties in the rotation to try and counter the Phils lineup and probably the best chance to knock-off the Phils besides the Yankees. That being said, the Phils have the bats and experience and some Roy Halladay desperation that I'm going to side with on this one. Phillies in 7.

Yankees vs. Rays

A flip of the coin, mine lands on the Rays in 7.

World Series

Rays vs. Phillies

The rematch we've all not been waiting for...I'll take Phillies in 6, just in hopes of curbing some of the A.L. superiority talk.

Comments

I did get Yanks right last year, like everyone else and just about nothing else right.

http://www.thecubreporter.com/2009/10/07/2009...

Pretty much matches up with what I think - with the Braves having the best shot at disrupting things. Who's got the best three starters and closer? Pick them.

http://muskat.mlblogs.com/archives/2010/10/10...

B. Jackson sitting out with a sore heel.

-edit- didn't mean that to be a reply

and by Rays I meant Rangers...

I see it pretty much the same way. I'd like to see the Twins win in round 1, but don't think they will. Maybe if they had Morneau.

Off topic, but Kerry Wood since joining the Yankees was 2-0 with an 0.69 ERA in 24 games and 26 innings pitched. 14 hits and 18 BB with 31K. I'd sort of like to see him get a ring. I don't think Lee (who went .287/.384/.465 with an OPS+ of 130 with the Braves) or Fontenot will get one this year. DeRosa is on the Giants too, but injured.

anyone know if/where m.prior is gonna play winter ball?

His arm is going to fall off soon, why do it in winter ball?

to get to the other side.

*shrug*

seriously though, TEX signed him...put him in 1 AAA game...called it a season...

just wondering if he actually has winter plans besides calling tom house for phone sex.

Roy Halladay is kind of good.

Miguel Cairo was the bench bat Dusty could put in there?

I don't know. I was thinking if anyone would ruin a no hitter in the post season, it was most likely to be Miguel fucking Cairo... the Reds have too many Ex-Cubs, don't they?

I count 1 each

Cairo for the Reds
R. Gload for the Phillies

Edmonds didn't make the LDS roster.

Good odds I'm missing someone though.

cairo actually has hit holyday in his career, fwiw (4 for 11)

it appears his bench at that point consisted of P. Janish, R. Hanigan, C. Heisy, M. Cairo and L. Nix.

Probably go Nix myself but him and Cairo have similar numbers this year.

The Reds getting swept would sadly make me happy, so I'm fine with everything that doesn't work out for them.

Since i do miss taking jabs at Dusty, all kinds of stupid not to have the lefty Travis Wood start a game vs. Phillies in this series.

Twins play for one run in first against Yanks.

Sure.

Hey ROB G:

Where are the standings from pre-season picks?

Recent comments

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  • If it was 2006 Hendry would be there w a Bible and a contract
    https://mobile.twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/77...

    jacos 40 min 21 sec ago view
  • he subscribes to my twitter, he's beyond TCR. #yolo #swag

    crunch 1 hour 18 min ago view
  • Whoops. Maddon must have been reading TCR (for his daily crunch) and got confused.

    CTSteve 1 hour 20 min ago view
  • kuhl is a righty, not a lefty.

    i think maddon might think kuhl is a lefty, too. i wonder what the reasoning is for baez leading off vs a rightie.

    crunch 2 hours 1 min ago view
  • "trout's one of the best, and at this point should probably win over donaldson (and should have more MVPs in the past, too), but the defensive aspect of valuing WAR still needs more tweaking...imo."

    that's from my 1st post. there's no suck involved in that. maybe with a few less posts about bullshit that point would have jumped out more.

    crunch 2 hours 48 min ago view
  • crunch - you do know that, taking defense out of the equation, Trout has led the AL in wRC+ each of those years, right?

    And, if you want to complain about position adjustment (which would be serious #crunchsplaining), he's been in the top 3 in the AL in WC (not park/league/position adjusted). And the only players ahead of him (if there were any players ahead of him) in any of those years have been DHs or 1B that play lousy defense.

    But sure - Trout sucks (or at least isn't as good as WAR says). Because it factors in defense and position.

    big_lowitzki 3 hours 53 min ago view
  • early tim tebow stuff rolling in...

    ran a 6.7 60yd (above average)...shagging flies in RF and showed off a rather impressive arm a few times, but average-at best on most of his throws...hit a few over the fence (both fields), fouled or weak contact a few...he's got a touch of power

    it'll be interesting to see who bites on this project, if anyone. he probably projected himself out of RF and into LF/1st because of his arm, but unless he can make that power work on a steady basis it'll be hard for him to play himself up anyone's system.

    crunch 4 hours 38 min ago view
  • LHP Clayton Richard (released by the Cubs earlier this month) is pitching very well as a starting pitcher for the San Diego Padres and could be a good candidate to get traded to a contender looking for a veteran SP before tomorrow night's post-season roster eligibility deadline.

    Because they released him, the Cubs are paying most of Richard's 2016 salary (the Cubs are on the hooks for $2M, minus the pro-rated portion of the MLB minimum salary that is paid by the Padres).

    Arizona Phil 6 hours 25 min ago view
  • it is honestly awesome (for real) that anyone would even have a strong opinion on AZL playoffs. i guess if you invest enough time watching it, you want to see a fair/just playoff structure.

    plus, the kids deserve it.

    crunch 6 hours 26 min ago view
  • The AZL team with the best record over the course of the full 2016 AZL season and the only AZL team to play .600 ball (the AZL Dodgers) did not qualify for the AZL playoffs, and the AZL East Division team with the best record over the course of the full season (the AZL Athletics) did not qualify for the AZL playoffs, either. 

    That's because of the ridiculous "split season" schedule most of the minor leagues now play, a stupid system that rewards mediocrity at the expense of the worthy. 

    Arizona Phil 6 hours 33 min ago view
  • Despite good movement on his fastball, I think location kept him from getting Ks. Left some pitches up and away that got hammered up and away. Then of course Travis Wood gave up the 2-run double in the 7th, but both runs counted against Arrieta.

    Charlie 7 hours 9 min ago view
  • "i'm gonna make you my main squeeze one day, bro. save the date."

    This level of discourse is #charming.

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 7 hours 9 min ago view
  • I would be having this discussion with anyone who (a) blathered on ad nauseum about the topic. (See, "Olt, Mike, not given an opportunity") or (b) responded directly to what I posted (which you did).

    Have a nice day.

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 7 hours 12 min ago view
  • what would you do without me? aside from having your posting content here cut by 75%+?

    i'm gonna make you my main squeeze one day, bro. save the date.

    crunch 7 hours 16 min ago view
  • In this instance, yes, I care more about the result of this big thing that isn't really a big thing.

    #crunchsplaining

    #willlistentojeffsullivanmorethanyou

    #blessyourheart

    #hitler

    #tcrmartyr

    #billyhamiltonwar

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 7 hours 16 min ago view
  • Two things:

    Fangraphs WAR #s include baserunning and Hamilton is elite at that. He leads in SBs with the 54 and and has an 87% rate which is really good. I'm sure once he gets on base he's able to take the extra base quite often too. Both those things will up his overall WAR value.

    The differences between BR and FG WAR is pretty well documented online and thus If there are discrepancies it's fairly easy to figure out why. It's fairly well accepted that BR WAR is fine as a snapshot but FG is better at predicting future value.

    johann 7 hours 20 min ago view