Randy Wells is the Day 2 King Of The Mountain!

 

There are 2 spot open for the back of the Cubs starting rotation, and watching who wins 'em ought to be pretty entertaining even if you feel it's a foregone conclusion that it's Randy Wells and Carlos Silva or Wells and Andrew Cashner.

Randy went 2 innings of 2-hit ball with a strikeout yesterday, and he started so that was against the Brewer "starters".
Young Cashner had a throwing error and a wild pitch that resulting in one of the 2 runs he gave up in his two innings.

If we were keeping simple tabs on these guys, I think so far Wells would have a "good", Cashner a "not so good" and I already can't remember what James Russell did the other day, but I think it was a "not so good".
I might re-visit this illustration as time goes on to keep tabs on who's "king of the mountain" because surely there will be some headlocks and brawling and tumbling down the almighty mound...

Uh, and Reed Johnson led off and got a couple hits, Tyler Colvin got a triple.

Ryan Dempster starts today, and we'll see who comes in in the 3rd - maybe it's Coleman or Looper.

Also, the Cubs are looking for a PA announcer at Wrigley.
Here's the story, and they're having you send your audition tape to CareerBuilder 

It says you must have a "deep knowledge of baseball", which I think in this case means being able to pronounce "Samardzija" and... like that one game where the tornado sirens went off?
As official PA guy you should be able to yell, "GET THE HELL OUT OF HERE WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!"

Comments

Chris Carpenter Sustains Injury, Leaves Cardinals Spring Training Game

http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2011/3/1/2023077/...

and his replacement, reliever mitch boggs, leaves with a back strain.

twitter sez minor hamstring injury...

Doesn't sound like a big deal.

"Carpenter said he threw one more pitch after feeling the hamstring tug. He said he wasn't that concerned about the injury."

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2011/news...

fuku/castro/byrd/aram/SOTO/dewitt/r.johnson/lahair

byrd seems to be quade's guy in the 3 slot.

Chris Archer today vs the Orioles:

1.0 IP 0 Runs O Hits 0 Nothin' 3 Strikeouts

I really don't have an opinion about the trade since you can't truly judge a trade until quite a ways after the fact, but it would be quite Cubslike if Archer won a rotation spot and had a better year than Garza.

s.castro picks up his 1st throwing error on the year. he's season-ready now.

dumpster - 3ip 2h 1er 1bb 3k
wellemeyer - 2ip 1h 0er 0bb 2k

damn...Sonnanstine (TB) gave up 6 hits today in 2ip...5 HRs.

Jim Hendry and Andy McPhail weep.

Garrett Anderson retires.

http://sports.espn.go.com/los-angeles/mlb/new...

now on SI

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers...

5 year rank is 13, 2010 rank is 5

one green light in Garza with this interesting note...

his UCL is actually covered in scar from a youth injury, which doctors believe makes it stronger than normal.

and the rest of the starting staff is a red light as well as Marmol and Wood.

i was interested until i saw who wrote the article...

Do these ratings strike anyone else as a tad arbitrary?

his dad is a doctor...i trust him, yo...i trust him.

he's the self appointed god of "injury statistics." lulz.

his dad is a doctor...i trust him, yo...i trust him.
---
Based on the green, yellow and red light ratings...does that suggest his mom was a traffic cop?

...not touching the "red light" I'll leave that one for Johann's mom.

last year

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php...

Red: Ramirez, Soriano, Lilly, Marmol
Yellow: Guzman, Soto, Lee, Bird, Z, Dempster, Wells
Green: Gorzelanny, Fukudome, Theriot, Fontenot

under Randy Wells, claims the history of converted catchers to pitchers is not good when it comes to injuries.

primer on ratings

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers...

fwiw, a red is 51% chance of an injury putting player on DL, so it's not a death sentence, nor even a certainty, just slightly better odds then guessing a coin flip.

I guess mariners are sticking with him, I just assumed he was released.

3/3 today

it is a contract year, so he may try this time.

Racist

Cracker!

------------

Has he had a resolution to his latest legal problems?

believe all charges were dropped

Ok, then the M's keeping him makes more sense. I was thinking if the threat of jail time was hanging over his head the team could be excused for not wanting that further distraction. Bradley's asking for help last year probably also bought him some forgiveness and another opportunity, but I would think he's still on a short leash.

hah... high five

just on Tuesdays

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?...

F. Perez hurt already
Colvin to get start at 1B on Friday
Cub Carpenter sent home with the flu

mlb has it's ipad/iphone apps up for 2011.

...saw this 5 dollar app called "Pennant" in the iTunes store which seems like a unique way to look up historical game data back to 1951.

might take a look at the author's video presentation of it on his website...

http://www.pennant.cc/

From Musket's write up of today's win (tomorrow's preview).

Carlos Pena will be back in the lineup at first. Let's see if the Brewers utilize the defensive shift again. Milwaukee did that Monday, and Pena grounded out both times.

So much for my hope that Pena will use the whole field.

There was actually a decent article about Pena's response to TRN a couple days ago.

He basically said it makes more sense to stay with what you know so you don't screw up worse. I'll buy it, as long as he hits at least .240...

...Then he said "Screw The Real Neal" ;)

Good. He knows the past two seasons he's hit in the .220s and the .190s this way so why mess with success, huh? If it ain't broke don't fix it.

I guess he means "If I got $10 million, I won't worry about it."

I don't know what Pena's problem is, but I doubt it's the shift.

Adam Dunn hit .260 against the same shift, with more home runs than Pena. Looking at the mlb.com home-run charts in their home ballparks, I see that Dunn hit 20 home runs in Nationals Park, Pena hit 18 in Tropicana. 13 of Dunn's HRs were to the right of dead center, while 12 of Pena's were to the right of dead center (and 1 was dead center). One curiosity is that all of Pena's 5 other HRs were to the left of the distance sign in left center, while all of Dunn's 7 left-field HRs were to the right of that number. Dunn never came anywhere near the left-field line.

At any rate, if Pena wants to learn to swing toward left, there is a knowledge base of Cub alums he can call up for advice, guys like Jacque Jones, Hollandsworth, Choi, Edmonds, etc., etc.

By the way, if you want to see a good old-fashioned dear-to-my-heart dead-pull hitter, look at Tyler Colvin's home runs.

I thought I read Pena's problems started when he became a pull hitter.

Not according to his 2007 home-run chart at Tropicana, where he hit 23 home runs, half his total. That was the year he hit .282 and had an OPS of 1.037.

I count 2 home runs directly at the 370 sign in dead right center and 8 or 9 HRs (the graph is crowded with h's) well to the right of the sign.

I'd like to see a few examples of power hitters who are not pull hitters.

Well, other than strikeouts, the reason his batting average is low is a low BABIP. The best ways to have a low BABIP is to:
1. Hit a lot of fly balls that don't leave the park
2. Pull everything so that the defense can stack the odds against you
3. Be slow

Last year I supsect Pena was guilty of all three.

I would say the best route to a low BABIP is not to make solid contact, not to "square the ball up," as the baseball people say.

But looking at it that way makes BABIP something of a circular concept, and takes the fun out of it.

I haven't seen Pena hit, so I really have no idea what's wrong with him. Just looking at his hitting highlights, which are usually home runs, it's kind of an ugly swing. Maybe he's not really a major-league hitter.

It's one year, so who cares?

Historically, Hank Aaron was an all-fields home run hitter, though he gradually became more of a pull hitter late in his career -- possibly after he realized he was close enough to Ruth's record to break it. I recall Sosa also hit quite a good number of his home runs to right field, especially later in his career when he stood so far off the plate and couldn't catch up on fastballs like he used to.

Edit:
I used to have a baseball game that used spinners on top of discs that showed a player's batting outcomes with hall of fame players. I can't recall the name of it, but the background of the game board was Wrigley Field with the center field bleachers NOT covered with the Astroturf hitting background. Anyway, I had "Hall of Fame" player disks and the Hank Aaron disc was nearly equally divided between home runs to left, center and right fields, whereas Ernie Bank's disc was heavily weighted to left field home runs, very few to center and none to right.

The Aaron I remember was a pull hitter; but the stats are spotty. In Aaron's home-run log, BR comes up with this breakdown of his 40-homer 1960 season: LF (16), LF-CF (5), CF (6), CF-RF (1), RF (0), no information (12).

The wrong-way power hitter in that 50's-60's NL HOF cohort was Clemente who hit double-digit triples most years but only 240 home runs over 18 seasons.

Tyler Colvin and Carlos Pena are very different hitters. Most of Colvin's homeruns may be on his pull side, but he can hit line drives to left with the best of them (okay, maybe not up there with Jacque Jones, but Jones could only hit to left).

I agree, Colvin is happy to lash a line drive over the shorstop's head. He jumps on his HR's and jerks them to right, but with a little loft he could probably hit some to left-center as well.

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  • "trout's one of the best, and at this point should probably win over donaldson (and should have more MVPs in the past, too), but the defensive aspect of valuing WAR still needs more tweaking...imo."

    that's from my 1st post. there's no suck involved in that. maybe with a few less posts about bullshit that would have jumped out more.

    crunch 36 sec ago view
  • crunch - you do know that, taking defense out of the equation, Trout has led the AL in wRC+ each of those years, right?

    And, if you want to complain about position adjustment (which would be serious #crunchsplaining), he's been in the top 3 in the AL in WC (not park/league/position adjusted). And the only players ahead of him (if there were any players ahead of him) in any of those years have been DHs or 1B that play lousy defense.

    But sure - Trout sucks (or at least isn't as good as WAR says). Because it factors in defense and position.

    big_lowitzki 52 min 27 sec ago view
  • early tim tebow stuff rolling in...

    ran a 6.7 60yd (above average)...shagging flies in RF and showed off a rather impressive arm a few times, but average-at best on most of his throws...hit a few over the fence (both fields), fouled or weak contact a few...he's got a touch of power

    it'll be interesting to see who bites on this project, if anyone. he probably projected himself out of RF and into LF/1st because of his arm, but unless he can make that power work on a steady basis it'll be hard for him to play himself up anyone's system.

    crunch 1 hour 37 min ago view
  • LHP Clayton Richard (released by the Cubs earlier this month) is pitching very well as a starting pitcher for the San Diego Padres and could be a good candidate to get traded to a contender looking for a veteran SP before tomorrow night's post-season roster eligibility deadline.

    Because they released him, the Cubs are paying most of Richard's 2016 salary (the Cubs are on the hooks for $2M, minus the pro-rated portion of the MLB minimum salary that is paid by the Padres).

    Arizona Phil 3 hours 24 min ago view
  • it is honestly awesome (for real) that anyone would even have a strong opinion on AZL playoffs. i guess if you invest enough time watching it, you want to see a fair/just playoff structure.

    plus, the kids deserve it.

    crunch 3 hours 25 min ago view
  • The AZL team with the best record over the course of the full 2016 AZL season and the only AZL team to play .600 ball (the AZL Dodgers) did not qualify for the AZL playoffs, and the AZL East Division team with the best record over the course of the full season (the AZL Athletics) did not qualify for the AZL playoffs, either. 

    That's because of the ridiculous "split season" schedule most of the minor leagues now play, a stupid system that rewards mediocrity at the expense of the worthy. 

    Arizona Phil 3 hours 32 min ago view
  • Despite good movement on his fastball, I think location kept him from getting Ks. Left some pitches up and away that got hammered up and away. Then of course Travis Wood gave up the 2-run double in the 7th, but both runs counted against Arrieta.

    Charlie 4 hours 8 min ago view
  • "i'm gonna make you my main squeeze one day, bro. save the date."

    This level of discourse is #charming.

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 4 hours 8 min ago view
  • I would be having this discussion with anyone who (a) blathered on ad nauseum about the topic. (See, "Olt, Mike, not given an opportunity") or (b) responded directly to what I posted (which you did).

    Have a nice day.

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 4 hours 11 min ago view
  • what would you do without me? aside from having your posting content here cut by 75%+?

    i'm gonna make you my main squeeze one day, bro. save the date.

    crunch 4 hours 15 min ago view
  • In this instance, yes, I care more about the result of this big thing that isn't really a big thing.

    #crunchsplaining

    #willlistentojeffsullivanmorethanyou

    #blessyourheart

    #hitler

    #tcrmartyr

    #billyhamiltonwar

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 4 hours 15 min ago view
  • Two things:

    Fangraphs WAR #s include baserunning and Hamilton is elite at that. He leads in SBs with the 54 and and has an 87% rate which is really good. I'm sure once he gets on base he's able to take the extra base quite often too. Both those things will up his overall WAR value.

    The differences between BR and FG WAR is pretty well documented online and thus If there are discrepancies it's fairly easy to figure out why. It's fairly well accepted that BR WAR is fine as a snapshot but FG is better at predicting future value.

    johann 4 hours 19 min ago view
  • i have no doubt at all you quit reading at that point. you're very enamored with outcomes without caring what it takes to get there.

    the fact it's exploitable, especially without someone to cover the running game for him, as well it's evolution in how people are testing possible exploits is interesting to some people...to me...i'm some people...hurrah.

    some people want to check the boxscore to see who won, some want to know how it went down.

    crunch 4 hours 32 min ago view
  • I read it as him saying it's not really that much of a concern and that the one time it really cost Lester, vs. K.C., was an anomaly.

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 4 hours 37 min ago view
  • if jeff says it, it's cool...when i say it, it's straight from the mouth of hitler.

    aside from the lack of jeff touching on the insane leads runners take and lester's inability to throw if he's fielding, this is a lot of what i've said about the issue.

    exploitable, needs his own personal catcher to control his shortcomings, relies on his ability to get outs along with his personal catcher keeping runners in check before things become further exploited...

    crunch 4 hours 39 min ago view
  • That would be Rice Krispy Treat

    The E-Man 5 hours 58 min ago view