Game 149 Thread / Brewers @ Cubs (1 of 3)

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SP *C.C. Sabathia SP Ryan Dempster
(NL) 9-0, 1.59, 102 K, 21 BB, 102 IP
15-6, 3.02, 173 K, 74 BB, 190.2 IP
       
CF Mike Cameron LF Alfonso Soriano
2B #Ray Durham SS Ryan Theriot
3B Ryan Braun 1B Derrek Lee
1B *Prince Fielder 3B Aramis Ramirez
SS J.J Hardy C Geovany Soto
RF Corey Hart RF Mark DeRosa
3B *Craig Counsell CF Reed Johnson
C Jason Kendall 2B Ronny Cedeno
P *C.C. Sabathia P Ryan Dempster

 

The last homestand of the regular season and the Cubs will be looking to clinch a spot in the playoffs in front of their home fans and secure their second straight division crown. Dempster goes tonight hoping to take sole possession of the Cubs win lead over Ted Lilly, who tied him yesterday with 15 (Zambrano has 14).

New Brewers manager Dale Sveum leads the troops into Wrigley and will get to send Sabathia and Sheets in the first two games. That should make him look like a geniuis. Sabathia has started 13 games for the Brewers, all good enough to be considered quality starts. The Cubs though are 28-14 versus lefties this year and 14-5 at home. My, how times have changed for our Cubs.

As I mentioned earlier, if the Cubs sweep the Brewers, they'll need the Marlins to win at least one versus the Astros over the next  3 games to clinch. If they can take two out of three, that'll give them the weekend to finish the job before they have to head out on the road again.

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Comments

Just in, John McCain says the Brewer's fundamentals are strong.

Sarah Palin can see the World Series from Alaska.

Barack Obama is a Hindu.

Cheers to Rob G the only one smart enough to know that Astros need to lose also for Cubs to clinch.

Jeers to all Chicago media who believe a sweep alone wins the division.

on that note, Marlins up 3-0 in the first on a Jorge Cantu bomb.

4-0 Marlins, Oswalt all over the place.

make it 5-0.

3-0 Phils as well.

Well Florida got the obligatory win against Houston, so were now set up to clinch the division outright against the Brews.

This may be a stupid question, but if the Brewers don't make the wild card and Mets/Phillies join the Cubs/Dodgers do the Cubs play the NL East wild card in the NLDS?

assuming the Cubs have the best record, yes they'll play the wild card if it doesn't come from the NL Central.

While this may be the rule, it's is a horrible one.

The top team should get to play the team with the worst record. I'll look it up but i don't think that a wild card team has ever had the worst record in the playoffs.

just looking at the NL...

2004 Astros

2002 Giants

2000 Mets

1999 Mets (same # of wins as Astros but one more loss)

1998 Cubs

1995 Rockies

i was wrong about that but the wild card often has a better record than one of the division winners.

07
06
05
04
03
01
97
96

that's also kind of the point of the wild card, to give one team a chance that had a better season than the other division winners but got stuck in a tough division. It sure would suck to have the 2nd best record in the league and not make the playoffs. So it being close to 50/50 is about right.

that all being said, they should scrap the inter-division rule and seed the playoffs by record with the small caveat that the Wild Card team cannot have homefield advantage.

I'd vote for that!

Buh buh buh bad idea. Why not just scrap the divisions and go with the top 4 records then?

I like the unbalanced schedule myself. The Wild Card is still knocked by not getting homefield advantage, so there's an advantage to winning the division. The rule against playing an inter-division team in the first round doesn't really make any sense to me with 4 playoff teams. The WC actually benefits if the best record was in their division and the team with the best record could be penalized.

The rule makes sure that two teams from the same division don't have to play eachother until the championship series.

Here's why that is a good idea:

Those teams quite often play themselves at end of the season (MLB schedule makers try to make that happen, at least). You want the Cubs to end the season with 3 at Milwaukee, to then play 5 more versus Milwaukee?

Say you have a division that's top two heavy, and the bottom is crap, sort of like how the AL East has been over the last 10 years, and other division where winner comes out of a dogfight of a bunch of 90 win teams. Or this year, he two best teams in the league are in the same division but some other team has a cakewalk through their crappy division (Red Sox, Rays, Angels), the Red Sox or Rays would get punished by having to play eachother in the first round.

to each their own, not a big deal to me if they played each other again. Happens in football all the time.

I think we should go back to just having an NL East and NL West. Make the schedule unbalanced in terms of East/West so we get more games against more teams, rather 500 series against the Pirates. Then take the top two teams from each division and re-seed according to record for the playoffs.

Personally, I'm sick of the NL Central. It sucks that we have more teams than the other divisions, and I'm sick of playing the Pirates and Reds 36 times a year (despite padding our record). The Cardinals and Brewers are both nice rivalries, but it would be nice to establish/renew some new/old ones as well.

Also, it's not like the travel schedule would be much different considering every team in the East is at most a 2.5 hour flight away.

Move Rockies to AL west, move Astros to NL West

Problem solved.

Problem not solved. You can't have 15 teams in each league unless you play interleague every day or have one team get three or four days in a row off. That's why the Brewers came to the N.L. with the last expansion.

I guess I didn't think of that.

Kick out Tampa and Marlins.

How about that?

They play Regular Season Baseball in Florida Now?

Someone should let the people who live in there know so they could attend a game or two.

Lots of K's for Dempster, but lots of pitches as well. Thru 3 innings, 7 K and 62 pitches.

Good Lord, how many pitches did Counsell see in his first 2 at bats?

Howry booed off the field again. Since the trade Eyre has 11 IP and a 1.64 ERA, in 10.2 IP Howry has a 6.75 ERA. I'm not sure there is even a reason to put him on the playoff roster at this point.

Anyone else think Marquis makes the playoff roster? He's better than Howry at this point and could be used as a long reliever. I'm not sure he'd make it as a setup man, though.

Don't forget Marquis' role as pinch runner for the Wardasaurus after he gets his late inning pinch hit walk.

wow
i think that could happen
anyone else see howry off playoff roster
it may depend on if chad goudan is healthy

also does hoffpauer make playoff roster?

Kerry K's Fielder! Cubs win 5-4!

best cubs team record (91) since 89 (93)...84 was 96 wins, btw.

can they go 9 - 4?

Nah, not while not being pushed and playing playoff contenders.

But how about 6 - 7? 97 wins would be cool.

meh make that 9 - 3 cause they ain't playing 162 this year.

And 6-6 to beat the record from '84.

They only played 161 that year, too.

They could play 162 if the game is relevant to Houston. A stretch, I know.

Mark these words...

The Cubs will not play 162 games.

That game vs. the Stros will not be played.

Nice Fark headline today:

http://forums.fark.com/cgi/fark/comments.pl?IDLink...

The Playoff schedule has been set. LDS games start on Oct 1st, World Series starts on Wed Oct 22nd, with the Cubs on the road vs an AL team

Gordon explains how changes in balloting favor Santo this year:

http://blogs.suntimes.com/cubs/2008/09/is_this_san...

.------.
|4.--. |
| :/\: |
| :\/: |
| '--'4|
`------'

From Rob Neyer's Chat Today:

Josh DC: Clearly the Cubs are the favorites in the NL right now, but who do you like to challenge them in October? Dodgers? Mets? Phillies? Brewers? What will be their biggest obstacle?

Rob Neyer: Rich Harden's body. If that doesn't get in their way, the Cubs may breeze into the World Series

Ok, we now know who to blame if we don't get there...

best thing besides the win tonight was handing CC what will likely be his only lost of the season.

Although kind of a BS loss when he gives up 3 runs but his team scores 4. Yes, I know the rule, but just one of the many reasons that W-L totals for pitchers are sketchy.

Chad: You have 90 seconds for rebuttal...

I think that Rob is a commie nazi who secretly hates pitchers.

With all the bailouts past and future, we're all commies now.

Hang a flag on Wall Street that reads: Thanks for the dough, chumps. We socialize the risk and privatize the profits.

Except the vast majority of Fortune 500 companies are owned by people's 401K's anway.

It was 4 runs in 7 innings, that's a 5.14 ERA... Rob's 2009 Cy Young vote goes to Aaron Harang, it's just tough luck that he's 4 and 16.

Two times we've beaten Sabathia now. It's good that we hang him with the loss this time around.

my bad, was on the radio and thought CC was out by the 7th. Not sure what the Aaron Harang comment means since his ERA is around 5.

Cy Youngs are Lincecum and Lee, not sure how you can argue anyone else this year.

Well the season isn't over yet, but the thing that makes them 'slam dunks' ironically is their win/loss records. Webb showed us how to cough up a Cy Young over a period of 6 days, let's see if these two guys can finish the deal. Lincecum versus Johnson, Thursday night should be a good watch for you leftist coasters. DBacks will be trying to get Webb back in contention by knocking Lincecum around, pitching with four days rest after a 138 pitch start. At least with Prior the Cubs were in contention.

the win/loss makes them a slam dunk for those who do the voting, they're slam dunks just because they've pitched better than everyone else even when you take out bullpen, run support and luck.

What about quality of batters faced, where Halladay has faced hitters who would score about .4 runs more a game than Lee?

not bothering to fact check, that would give Cliff Lee a hypothetical 2.89 ERA vs Halladay's 2.77 ERA. That makes it more interesting, but still hypothethical.

and doesn't WARP-3 adjust for that? Lee is 10.8 vs Halladay's 8.3

Doesn't seem to. That's one of the frustrating things about BP, they have stats but they don't use them. A few years ago in their annual they did a article about non-stolen base baserunning and showed that there can be like 18 runs between the top guy and the bottom guys in the league, which can be a pretty huge swing if your comparing players like Beltran or Reyes and Ortiz.

well either way, a hypothetical 2.89 ERA vs a 2.77 ERA doesn't seem enough to overtake the actual difference in my book. Not to mention Toronto's defense is far better than Cleveland's this year.

But their BABIP's are about the identicle and Hallady throws more grounders and strikes out more guys.

Bob Howry, 7th inning of a one-run game...

Knock it the fuck off Lou.

The 7th inning is our achilles heel. With Gaudin on the shelf right now, Howry might be the only option. If not him, then who?

the answer I so often used with Dusty....anyone else.

Guzman or Samardzija would be my top choices...but honestly, anyone else. I don't give a fuck anymore. Howry's been shit all season, please get the Steve Eyre treatment.

I really like Samarj but he makes me nervous. I can go with Guz. Ok, i'm on board.

To even be considered for the playoff roster, Guzman needs to prove he can throw two days in a row. But Lou doesn't seem inclined to give him a chance. Guzman pitched an inning on 9/2 and another 2 innings on 9/5, so he hasn't seen the mound in 8 games.

Maybe with a 9 game lead, we'll start to see more of him. I'd like to see him get a chance to pitch his way onto the playoff roster.

If Cubs clinch Thursday, they will have a nice 10 game audition to figure everything out.

It's not 'proving' he can throw two days in a row, it's being allowed to throw two days in a row.

Not sure I agree with having to be able to pitch on consecutive days to make the playoff roster anyway. There are a lot more off days during the playoffs. Wood, for example, was on the post season roster last year.

Agreed. There aren't many back-to-back in the playoffs as it is.

Needs to prove his effectiveness more so than he has to prove he has the arm strength.

tonight versus the Angels.

7 IP, 1 ER, 6 K, 0 BB

i think if lou is considerin marquis on 1st
round roster he needs to let him come in out of the pen
at least once after cubs clinch, lets see how he does.

Surprising pseud-facts:

Lee has hit into fewer DP's this year than Pujols did last year, and fewer for his career (in about 300 more games).

They should use Guzman in these games coming up. it seems like the Golden Domer is 2-0 to every batter. Guzman had better control in the minors. See if it can translate to the majors.

And Real Neal,

I don't care who owns the stock, if a business gets big enough to have a major ripple effect if it fails, it knows it can count on the government to bail it out. That, combined with the outrageous salaries of CEOs, CFOs etc., takes risk out of the endeavor for the decision makers.

Might be one of the reasons the American car companies lag so far behind in innovation and stayed addicted to the crack of the SUV for so long. Don't worry, Washington will be bailing them out too soon.

Sorry to go off on an economic rant. I'll banish myself to a virtual corner for a while.

I'd be very interested in hearing how the average Fortune 500 CEO is any more greedy than the Scott Boras's and Arods of the world, or how they provide less benefit to society as a whole. People get what they can get. It's human nature.

I'd be very interested in hearing how the average Fortune 500 CEO is any more greedy than the Scott Boras's and Arods of the world

Who said CEOs were more greedy? Nice strawman.

Though, to be fair to athletes, athletes are at least much more limited in terms of the number of years that they can earn money, at least in that specific career. And the vast majority of professional athletes, even in the major sports, will not become anywhere close to the mega-millionaires that Arod, Boras, or Fortune 500 CEOs do.

Some things that may have eluded you, Dave.

This is a baseball blog. If you're going to complain about greedy millionares, it would be more appropriate to complain about the ones involved in baseball here, right? You should figure out what 'Strawman' means before you start throwing the term around like a 4th grade spelling bee champion.

Speaking of Strawmen, though, there average MLB player makes more in his career than the average CEO/CFO.

But don't let me confuse facts with your typical socialist drivel, rant on!

This is a baseball blog.

For being a baseball blog, you sure bring up politics a lot.

You should figure out what 'Strawman' means before you start throwing the term around like a 4th grade spelling bee champion.

WTF? I know exactly what it means. The definition of a straw man:

A "straw man" is an informal fallacy which is committed whenever someone argues against a position which the other person does not actually hold.

Which is exactly what you did. You shot down an argument that was not made in order to make some kind of point that Alex Rodriguez and Fortune 500 CEOs are similar.

Speaking of Strawmen, though, there average MLB player makes more in his career than the average CEO/CFO.

First, I was explicitly referring to Fortune 500 CEOs, was I not? But good job at changing that to all CEO/CFO's. And, by the way, that would be another strawman. It is always easier to argue against arguments that are not made.

And do you have a source for your statement?

Because the average length of an MLB career is 5.6 years (source). The average salary in MLB this year was around $3 million (source). Very roughly, we can say that the average current MLB player will make about $15 million in his career. That is very rough, but I would argue that it would be fairly accurate.

The average CEO pay, in 2005, was $11.8 million per year (source). That would mean that a CEO would have to just work 2 years as a CEO to make more than the average player in MLB.

But don't let me confuse facts with the ignorant bull shit that you make up.

But don't let me confuse facts with your typical socialist drivel, rant on!

BTW... not to ask you to actually make sense, but what in my comment had anything to do with socialism... or a rant?

..baseball writers who vote on the Rookie of the Year?

Can you name the two Chicago writers who have a vote?

No cheating! But if you must, the answer is here (http://www.sj-r.com/sports/x594211916/Mike-Nadel-N...) in an article auspiciously titled "No contest -- Soto NL’s top rookie"

Lookin' good for Geo!

Random thoughts:

- In the 2 big games against the unbeatable monster that was CC, Sori was huge. Big leadoff hits in both games to set the tone and shatter his aura of invincibility.

I was at the ballpark last night:
- Prince's first HR was the hardest-hit HR I have seen live. Holy mackeral.
- Fukudome's AB against CC may have been the worst MLB AB I have ever seen, live or otherwise. What's worse than "compeltely overmatched". Heard the first smattering of Fukky boos last night.
- Wrigley on a perfect September night, great ballgame, crowd buzzing, great defense by both teams, Wood vs. Prince to end it -- can't beat it.

FYI, I downloaded the Zambrano no-no. I got chills at the end.

I suggest two aspirin and lots of sleep.

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