2011 Cubs Draft Ticker Tracker - Day One

ROUND 1 (9): Javier Baez, SS (Arlington Country Day School - Jacksonville, FL)
R/R, 6'1, 205, 18 years old
COMMENT: Rated by Baseball America as the best HS hitter in the draft... Hit .771 with 64 hits, 22 HR, 20 doubles, 52 RBIs and just three K in 2011... Very aggressive hitter with plus bat-speed and plus raw-power... Above-average arm but just barely average range for SS... Figures to eventually outgrow SS and move to another position (most likely 3B)... Emotional player on the field... Signed NLI with Jacksonville U...

Comments

Buzz from the scout.com chat:

4:09 [Comment From Tim Tim: ]
Do the Cubs take Lindor if he is there at 9? Seems the way things
4:10 Frankie Piliere: I haven't heard that but Cubs playing it super close to the vest as usual Monday June 6, 2011
4:10 Frankie Piliere: As I say that, some good buzz comes in on those same Cubs....
4:11 Frankie Piliere: Buzz: Cubs are going "way off the board" with their pick. Not exactly a surprised given last year but makes my job impossible trying to figure it out.
4:13 [Comment From Gammy Gammy: ]
The Cubs are taking Vogelbach or Cron...
Monday June 6, 2011 4:13 Gammy
4:13 Frankie Piliere: At this point, I can't say no to that

http://sbb.scout.com/2/1077197.html

Would anyone be surprised?

Jeff Ames RHP from Canada is the pick.

Tyler Anderson LHP Oregon

3 minutes later he updated with this name: Onelki Garcia Speck

scouting report:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/201...

23 years old, defect from Cuba

Piliere says he is demanding a lot in bonus money.

there's a letter from MLB at bottom of chat about Speck

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.p...

another update on Speck-gate

According to multiple international directors, Major League Baseball sent teams a memo on Saturday at 10 p.m. E.T. to inform them that Garcia Speck is eligible for the draft. Garcia, a 21-year-old who is 6-foot-3, 220 pounds, is represented by Los Angeles-based agent Gus Dominguez, who scouts said had scheduled a workout for Garcia Speck to be seen on Saturday, June 11 at Pierce Junior College.

Multiple international directors expressed frustration that MLB would declare a Cuban defector draft-eligible on such short notice, suggesting that the player likely already has a deal in place with a team. Others added that they would be elated if another team used a high draft pick on Garcia Speck, who struggled with his control in Cuba.

That sounds kind of like the Cubbery we have come to know so well...

Piliere's final mock draft has Cubs taking SS Javier Baez.

I believe I'll be free for some parachatting tonight of game/draft.

Bud Selig should not be allowed to announce the picks.

I think he just said the Washington Naturals were on the clock.

Cubs selected RHP Sonny Gray (Vanderbilt) out of Smyrna HS - Smyrna, TN in 27th round of 2008 draft but he did not sign.

So with so many obvious choices now off the board, it would not surprise me if the Cubs draft Gray again, like they have done in the past with Andrew Cashner, Marquez Smith, and Sam Fuld.

Callis says it will be Javier Baez

http://sbb.scout.com/2/1077071.html

Baez is athletic, fast, has versatility in the field, and most importantly has a plus bat with plus power potential. He has star quality at the plate, and if he can stick at a premium position his value will continue to rise.

Defensively not there as a SS, but could easily move to 3b or OF and link says catcher even a possibility.

http://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprof...

While Baez’ offensive potential intrigues scouts the most, he has impressive defensive tools, as well, that enable him to play a number of positions. He plays shortstop for his high-school team, but spent last summer primarily at third base due to his thicker build and 6.9-second speed in the 60. The temptation may exist for the team that drafts Baez to install him at third base, given the tremendous offensive contribution he could make at that position, but Baez has solid shortstop actions, good first-step quickness, nice balance on the run and plenty of arm strength. Another position that has intrigued scouts is catcher, and Baez tried his hand at there briefly at the East Coast Professional Showcase last August.

Sounds like he has power (though neither ESPN or BA mentioned speed), but not the most loveable Cubbie type...sounds like a young Milton Bradley (or, at a minimum, Aramis Ramirez):

ESPN (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft/player/_...)

"But the biggest issue for Baez is how he acts on the field. He's more than just flashy, he's very showy, and he doesn't always play like he's fully prepared or engaged. He has as much potential impact with the bat as any prep player in this draft, but the need for a new position and questions about his on-field demeanor are going to hold down his stock."

Baseball America (http://www.baseballamerica.com/draftdb/2011te...)

"Baez is explosive and scouts generally pan his makeup....He plays with energy, but it's not always positive, and he turns off some scouts with emotional outbursts and an off-field demeanor some describe as aloof."

unless he starts hitting his wife/girlfriend or blaming the fans for being racist, sounds more like Z.

Wrongway on Baez:

Cubs felt Javier Baez was second-best bat in draft. Tim Wilken projects him "close to 70 power'' and a 60-70 hitter. High-ceiling pick.

70 power projection? wow. that's faith based on hands and wrist speed, imo. wonder when he projects that power to show itself.

Another snippet from BA: "He has the fastest bat in the draft... plus raw power as well."

Personality issues aside, I like him better than the two high school hitters taken ahead of him, he can at least hit.

I like him better than Lindor, but Starling has more power, better speed, better defense and possible the farthest opposite (to the positive side) in attitude. I hoped that the Cubs would get Starling...when he wasn't available, I was hoping for a pitcher.

ESPN stated (paraphrasing) that he swings for the fences on every pitch and his ability to hit for average will be dependent on his ability to cut down his swing when needed.

Doesn't sound like a very stable guy, not sure how coachable (maybe he has just had bad coaching, though his coach is his legal guardian) and really is more just quick bat speed and raw power than anything else.

Here is the ESPN quote:

At the plate Baez unleashes on every pitch with a max-effort swing that, when he squares a ball up, produces loud, hard contact. He doesn't shorten up or ever use another approach beyond "swing with all you've got," and he can get too power-happy and start to swing uphill.

He still projects to hit for plus power, but the potential to hit for average will depend on his willingness to cut down his swing when needed

why are you posting Alfonso Soriano's scouting report?

That is a good comparison, though Soriano actually seems to have a great attitude and appears to work hard (though not hustle).

Hopefully Baez can put up early Soriano numbers and then we can trade him/let him go to another team prior to becoming the Soriano of today.

Not sure where you get the Starling has more power.. he's a worse hitter. Drafting guys who cannot hit never works out, unless you liked him as a pitcher? Ryan Harvey with CF speed is still a guy who never makes the bigs.

Stories of 500 foot home run shots in ESPN's story about him.

He hit .481 and hit a homer every 6 ABs. Not sure how that is considered a "worse hitter" or someone who "cannot hit".

No scouting story at all says he can't hit. You are just making that up to make a point that Baez is a better hitter now, something that is likely not true.

More importantly, every report had Starling rated higher than Baez. Starling has more talent, a higher ceiling and an attitude that makes reaching that ceiling more likely.

You are looking at this through Cub-colored glasses if you prefer Baez to Starling. The comparison to Harvey is funny...Starling is significantly more talented. But because you want to make that comparison, I'll say he is similar to Ken Griffey Jr. Comparisons are both invalid, but it appears that you thought you justified your point with this comparison, so I might as well justify mine with Junior.

So .481 in rural Missouri is better than .771 in Jacksonville Florida?

Every scouting report you read on him says that his hitting needs work... every single one. Why would you spend $6 million on a hitter when you're not sure he's going to be able to hit? Because he can cover a lot of ground in the outfield?

You did find me out though, I do create the Baseball America draft issue, and when I put that Baez was the best high school hitter in the draft, I did that wearing my rose colored Cubs glasses, knowing that the Cubs were going to take him 4 weeks later.

Starling can't hit...maybe he learns to, maybe he doesn't. That's a helluva a maybe to go after when it costs you that much money and another player.

http://sbb.scout.com/2/1077285.html
"his hit tool needs refining at the professional level"

http://orioles-nation.com/2011/06/05/derek-bu...

"...he has little refined baseball skills...will have to be completely tutored with proper professional coaching"

http://www.prodraftcentral.com/scouting-repor...

" ...his hitting ability still needs some work and his swing could use some cleaning up"

On MLB Network they said that his hands/wrists were similar to Gary Sheffield.

Later they said he has webbed feet like Aquaman.

Did he have adamantium claws like Wolverine?

How many losses in a row before the firings start?

I say 0-fer road trip (which would be 12 in a row I think) would at least get a pitching or hitting coach fired.

I wonder how hard it will be to find a new GM to take the job, it's almost like a poisoned pill at this point.

sadly, Cubs will name Randy Bush as the new GM.

/facepalm

How many losses in a row before the firings start?

25

Playing blake dewitt in lf is a firable offense...replacing Soriano's bat with a singles hitter is akin to replacing DLee with Neifi, and DeWitt's defense is a good comp with....um, Alf.

What's next...Koyie Hill in LF?

His presence in the outfield makes the line drives slow down by 4-5 mph.

Nicely played!

speaking of neifi...seen our #2 and #3 hitters?

it's about time to let one of them hit 2nd, move the other deep, and let aram/pena/soto fill the 3-5, imo.

Speaking of Neifi have you seen Aramis Ramirez?

his power is picking up and he's clipping it into the OF.

his 6hr pace is ugg, but his 45 double pace says he might be able to get that HR pace into double digits.

He's totally selling out for his doubles power, though. Remember when he used to be a smart hitter? Now all I see is a big looping swing, trying to hit HR's to left center regardless of situation or the pitcher or, really anything.

It will be hard for his (Baez) defense to be worse than what aram's is these days

Someone on mlb radio (not Grant Paulson), XM, said his hitting reminded him of manram in his hs days.

I'm knocking the Cubs and not Baez, but really, what odds does a high school hitter drafted in the 1st round by the Cubs have to even sip coffee in the majors? 10%?

Lou Montanez made it!!!!!!!

Can't think of another one off hand though?

KPat

2/3rds of our "Outfield of the future" !!!

Shawon Dunston. But seriously, we have a horrible track record for several decades of first round high school hitters never panning out.

I think it's totally awesome that they let Selig get all liquored up before the draft started.
Worst toupee in show business since...?

charlton heston

easy on the toupee...#10 left it to the commish in his will. The one from the Met season opener.

and Baez coach comped him to Hanley Ramirez, Harold Reynolds said he comps with Gary Sheffield.

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?tcid=mm_chc...

I'll say he is similar to Ken Griffey Jr. Comparisons are both invalid,
---
Or...he comps with Ted Williams and Lou Gehrig

Rays have 7 - SEVEN compensatory picks between the first and second rounds... Holy CRAP!

baez HS numbers/blurb from TSN:

"SS JAVIER BAEZ, Arlington Country Day (Jacksonville). His numbers this season were staggering—22 home runs, .771 batting average, 64 hits, 20 doubles, 52 RBIs and just three strikeouts. "A lot of guys—and I respect them for that—challenged him," ACD coach Ron Dickerson says."

...a quick check by me of recent stats from the region put it on par with a lot of HS programs where guys batting .500-.600 isn't too uncommon for top 10 performers.

.771 is pretty hardcore in this area...or any area.

.463 with 13hr in 2009 as a soph. (8bb/5k/93pa)

I have lived in Florida. Some of you may have as well.

It is baseball all year long at a high-level in high school and colleges.

To me it says he was doin' it against very serious competition.

Its like being a top two or three HS football player in Texas.

We'll all see in due time if any of this pans out, but the kid has some talent goin' on.

yeah, this isn't some HS dude throwing high-90s vs. competition in utah at least.

I like the pick.

Just hope this kid has an ounce of plate discipline. Or that this regime doesn't beat it out of him, to promote hackery.

PROMOTING HACKERY: Your CHICAGO CUBS!

Ricketts is paying these Wrigley employees by the hour. No sense in taking pitches and extending these games out past 2 1/2 hours?

nice.

ditto.

Good God, those numbers are obscene.

.771 batting average, 64 hits

That's slow-pitch softball batting average territory.

I guess it's all about perspective:

"He's got two different swings," Wilken said. "He really lets it out at times, and then he's got a good two-strike approach."

Wilken and other Cubs scouts were impressed when they met with Baez last week in Sebring, Fla.

"He's a very quiet young man off the field, very fiery on the field," Wilken said. "He's more of a student-type young man. He's confident, but it's silent confidence. He doesn't mince his words. You're going to get straight answers. There's not going to be a lot of verbiage in between."

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?...

"He's confident, but it's a silent confidence."

That narrows it down for me. Sounds like anyone from Andre Dawson to the Unabomber.

Bell is still on the board... if he falls to the Cubs hopefully they have the cash to sign him.

FWIW, and I don't think I saw anyone mention this but could be wrong, I saw somewhere yesterday that Baez got good grades. This shows a little discipline of the good kind, and leads me to think we may not be looking at character issues with the "fiery" disposition but just a hard nosed player.

http://jacksonville.com/sports/baseball/2011-...

oh and he has a tattoo.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/highschool/blog/prep_...

Seems like he shouldn't be too hard to sign.

Feeling good about the Cubs' 1st rounder?
The Rays have already drafted 10 players... Now that is one way to fortify your farm system... (seems like the ONLY way)...

Well another way might be to trade a pitcher with high trade value for a bunch of prospects. Someone like... oh, I don't know... Matt Garza.

There are a handful of first-round-talent-tough-sign types, many of whom will be available when the Cubs pick. I am foolishly getting my hopes up.

Understatement of the year-

RT @Buster_ESPN: There is no more ineffective group of veteran players, in terms of leadership and matching production to dollars, than those of the Cubs.

That would make a great t-shirt.

Or billboard near Wrigley Field. How does the TCR advertising budget look this year?

Thanks Einstein.

Recent comments

Subscribe to Recent comments
The first 600 characters of the last 16 comments, click "View" to see rest of comment.
  • Sure, no marks and some inconsistencies in the witness's statements. But firing your gun into garage wall immediately after an argument and punching out your car window is still threatening and out of control behavior. There was certainly enough for MLB to think it warranted a 30-game suspension.

    Charlie 54 min 48 sec ago view
  • I'd prefer they be flexible with the closing situation depending on matchups. You're not really adding a lefty reliever if you use him strictly as a closer.

    Charlie 55 min 20 sec ago view
  • Stockpiling young talent isn't only for trading for someone like Chapman though. Even with an elite closer winning the World Series is basically a crap shoot so the key is to get to the playoffs as much as possible and not just mortgage everything on one year. Once you get there an elite bullpen certainly helps but the playoffs can be won by one hitter or starting pitcher getting hot (Murphy, Molina, Baumgardner) and a closer might not be able to stop that.

    johann 1 hour 19 min ago view
  • I'm also not crazy about press convictions. As the police report noted, there were no marks on the lady in question. There's a TMZ link (of course) to her police pictures, as well.

    I think the only way this trade goes real bad is if Cubbery intervenes and Chapman is suddenly bad for some reason.

    Old and Blue 1 hour 23 min ago view
  • I am right there with you closing in on 60.

    I don't care that much about "mortgaging" one player who is not only blocked by two guys, but is not ready to hit the majors for at least a couple years.

    There is no reason why this team, this year, can't have a real shot at something NONE of us have experienced.

    Further, I don't feel that even if they fall short that they have ruined their farm system.

    I have made my opinion clear here, with others, Warren was shit on the Cubs save one spot start.

    The E-Man 2 hours 52 min ago view
  • Trading for Warren, Warren sucking, getting Warren back for Chapman plus 3 prospects, sounds like Revenge of The Yankees on the former Boston executive. Old rivalries never die.

    I pray to the heavens above Chapman doesn't suck for some reason, or he'll be booed out of town faster than a Todd Hundley revival meeting.

    Old and Blue 3 hours 16 sec ago view
  • I'm kind of nostalgic for the Schwarber-for-Miller rumors.

    Brick 3 hours 12 min ago view
  • This offseason, after some ridiculous playoff run and Chapman saving every game from here until the end of the postseason striking out 27/9innings, I welcome anyone to quote this thread and call me a dummy: I hate this trade, and my hate is 2 parts Chapman makes this team less likeable and 1 part that's a ridiculous overpay for 30 regular season innings and, at tops, 10 postseason innings. Already hoping they don't extend him.

    Charlie 3 hours 13 min ago view
  • btw...Thanks AZ Phil. I'm really enjoying your take on this trade.

    Cubster 3 hours 36 min ago view
  • I'm a bit disappointed on the Warren experience. Essentially they gave Castro away for crickets (OK, well they signed Zobrist with the Castro salary dump). Otherwise one might look at it as Chapman for Castro and our #1 minors prospect (Torres) + McKinney/Crawford. Seems pricey for a 2 month rental. We will see if this price tag is that steep in a relative way based on the remaining deadline deals for relievers.

    Cubster 3 hours 36 min ago view
  • Yep. One of the great things about this team (in addition to being really good at baseball) was the "likable" factor. Feels a bit different now. Who knows...maybe Chapman will be the king of the dance parties.

    billybucks 3 hours 45 min ago view
  • Here are some possible corresponding minor league moves we might see in the aftermath  of the Chapman trade: 

    SOUTH BEND to MYRTLE BEACH: OF Donnie Dewees and INF Bryant Flete  

    EUGENE to SOUTH BEND: OF Robert Garcia and INF Vimael Machin 

    There is really no reason to replace Billy McKinney at Tennessee because both Chris Coghlan and Jorge Soler are doing their rehab at Tennessee.  

    And there are plenty of pitchers at Iowa. No need to replace Warren at AAA. .  

    Arizona Phil 4 hours 5 min ago view
  • I am 70 years old. The Cubs last played in the World Series in 1945. I was born in 1946. I hate to lose a prospect like Torres, but when the opportunity is there to get that World Series ring, you go for it. This was the idea in stock piling all this young talent. I would like to see Reddick added now and the Cubbies should be done.

    Hagsag 4 hours 36 min ago view
  • I would expect Richard to accept an optional assignment because based on how he's played this season, there is a decent chance that he won't find work elsewhere. Rather stay and potentially get a ring. Same goes for Coghlan since he's struggled mightily this year.

    Edwards should not go down. He's pitched very well and Maddon is very impressed with him. I would expect Grimm to go down for Cahill so he can get back on track (he's pitched better in July, but he's not getting enough appearances).

    chitownmvp01 4 hours 39 min ago view
  • chitownmvp01: Indeed Clayton Richard would seem to be odd man out once Chapman reports, but Richard might accept a minor league assignment if he is promised a return to Chicago on 9/1 when MLB Active List rosters expand (Richard has minor league ioptions left).

    Arizona Phil 4 hours 42 min ago view
  • The only player in the deal that would cause me a second thought is Gleyber Torres.

    McKinney and Crawford are decent prospects but both are redundant/replaceable in the system and Warren was really only a middle-reliever or #6 starter, so to me it's really just Torres for Chapman.

    Arizona Phil 5 hours 3 min ago view