Playing the Field

Well there isn't much to do this week but speculate, so let's take a look at the potential Cubs first round playoff opponent. There's a poll at the end of the post.

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New York Mets - 65% odds to make the playoffs

Scenario: If Mets win the Wild Card, they'll be the Cubs first round opponent. 

Category
#
NL Rank
RS 775 2nd
RA 688 6th
BA .267 4th
OBP .341 4th
SLG .424 6th
HR 170 6th
Starters' ERA 3.98 5th
Relievers' ERA 4.21 10th
K/9 Rate 7.20 6th
Team Defensive Efficiency .704 3rd

 

What They're Good At: Throwing Johan Santana, scoring runs and making plays in the field.

What They're Bad At: Relieving. 

Why The Cubs Don't Want to Play Them: If the Mets clinch before Sunday, that means Johan Santana in Game 1 and he's been aces since the break (2.34 ERA). While certainly below the level of the Cubs starting pitchers, Oliver Perez, Pedro Martinez, Mike Pelfrey and possibly John Maine all have the potential to scrounge up an excellent outing. Although they've performed as a unit better against lefties than righties, they do load up on lefties against the Cubs mostly righty staff and the quartet of Reyes, Wright, Beltran and Delgado is quite formidable.

Los Angeles Dodgers - 91.51% odds to make the playoffs

Scenario: If Brewers win the Wild Card, Cubs will play the division winner with the worst record.

Category
#
NL Rank
RS 665 13th
RA 626 1st
BA .262 6th
OBP .330 7th
SLG .394 13th
HR 128 13th
Starters' ERA 3.93 3rd
Relievers' ERA 3.25 1st
K/9 Rate 7.50 5th
Team Defensive Efficiency .699 8th

 

What They're Good At: Pitching, getting injured and penciling in Manny Ramirez

What They're Bad At: hitting, especially with any power

Why The Cubs Don't Want to Play Them: They say pitching wins in the playoffs and that is about the only thing the Dodgers do well, other than praying that Manny Ramirez will score some runs for them. But their hot streak came mostly against the likes of San Diego, Pittsburgh, Colorado and sweeping Arizona. A matter of fact, they just loss two of three at home to the Giants and feature a middle infield of Angel Berroa and Blake DeWitt. They're starters of Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda and either Greg Maddux or Clayton Kershaw have been quite good, but they're going to have to be great.


I guess that was more of a why the Cubs Do Want to Play Them. 

Philadelphia Phillies - 99.63% odds to make the playoffs

Scenario: If Phillies blow the division but hold on to the Wild Card.

Category
#
NL Rank
RS 773 3rd
RA 657 3rd
BA .255 10th
OBP .332 6th
SLG .436 2nd
HR 208 1st
Starters' ERA 4.24 7th
Relievers' ERA 3.25 2nd
K/9 Rate 6.71 12th
Team Defensive Efficiency .704 4rd

 

What They're Good At: Hitting home runs, relieving, making plays in the field.

What They're Bad At: Striking out hitters, middle of order is very strikeout prone

Why The Cubs Don't Want to Play Them: Cole Hamels has owned the Cubs twice this year and Brett Myers has a 2.62 ERA since coming back from his demotion and Jamie Moyer continues to defy the laws of science and aging. Nearly as good a 1-8 as the Cubs and a formidable quartet of Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Pat Burrell. The bullpen has been lights out for most of the season despite a small misstep the last time they faced the Cubs.

Arizona Diamondbacks - 8.48% odds to make the playoffs

Scenario: If Brewers win Wild Card and Diamondbacks overtake Dodgers for NL West crown.

Category
#
NL Rank
RS 697 10th
RA 674 5th
BA .251 13th
OBP .327 8th
SLG .415 8th
HR 152 10th
Starters' ERA 3.93 4th
Relievers' ERA 3.98 6th
K/9 Rate 7.69 3rd
Team Defensive Efficiency .696 12th

 

What They're Good At: Starting pitching, striking out hitters, having Cub-killer Adam Dunn in the lineup, beating us last year in the NLDS

What They're Bad At: Hitting, making plays in the field

Why The Cubs Don't Want to Play Them: The trio of Brandon Webb, Dan Haren and Randy Johnson could be a bit intimidating and the bullpen is "good enough". Ted Lilly might throw a fastball to Chris Young as well.

And for comparision's sake, a look at the Cubs statistical dominance. It's a shame they just don't play these on paper.

Chicago Cubs

Category
#
NL Rank
RS 829 1st
RA 641 2nd
BA .278 1st
OBP .355 1st
SLG .444 1st
HR 177 5th
Starters' ERA 3.76 1st
Relievers' ERA 3.98 5th
K/9 Rate 7.82 1st
Team Defensive Efficiency .713 1st

 

What They're Good At: Just about everything.

What They're Bad At: the 7th inning

Why No One Wants to Play the Cubs: Rich Harden, Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano and even Ted Lilly can shut down any lineup. If you don't have a lead going into the 8th inning, you won't have one to end the game. If you are leading late in the game, there's a good chance the Cubs will be leading to the end the game. The entire lineup doesn't consist of one easy out...not even the pitcher in some cases.

I don't think it matters much who the Cubs end up playing at what point. I think the Phillies are probably the best team besides the Cubs right now and fully expect the Cubs to see them in the NLCS. If I had a choice, I'd take the Dodgers as the first round opponent, the chances of Furcal and/or Kent being ready seems pretty slim and the Cubs can just workaround Manny Ramirez. If the Brewers somehow right the ship this week and get Sheets and/or Yovani Gallardo available and healthy in the playoffs, they're about the only other team that could put a scare into the Cubs.

Comments

I'm still more scaredified of the Dodgers' pitching, than the Mets, personally.

sure, overall its better than the Mets and they got Saito back. But all you have to do is score 2 runs against them to win....

That's a lot, can we do it? Anyway, Manny has been hitting 9-run homeruns nightly, so it might take more. What about after Harden pitches his 5 innings and we have to run out Howry and Someninja, or whoever, for two innings? Plus, I'd really love to knock out the Mets in the first round.

if any team pitches to Manny with runners on, they're retarded, unless the bases are loaded of course and then I still might consider walking him.
 
Personally I think Lou is going to use Marmol for 2 innings a few times in the playoffs.

Yeah, ok. I just feel like arguing. I think either team would be ok.

also want to say I think the Dodgers pitchers numbers are a bit inflated. Besides getting to pitch at Dodger Stadium and Petco, the offenses in the NL West have been terrible. The Rockies were the best at 9th in the NL in runs scored.

Perhaps that's true, but they've also pitched well against the Cubs...in my don't-feel-like-looking-it-up-to-verify opinion.

more importantly, are you going to change your sig line next week?

Yup...

2007 TCR Keeper Champion
2008 Silver Medal Winner

we're giving out medals this year? who sprung for that? And what's the 4th place medal? Aluminum?

Ok, that was in the Olympic spirit. Yahoo gives virtual trophies on your fantasy sports page. I fully expect the silver one, but Agility has been gaining on me, so it might be bronze. You get a hardy handshake and a pat on the back.

Yesterday I would have said the Mets, but I switched to the Dodgers.
The prospect of facing Santana in game 1 of a short series makes me a bit sick to my stomach.

I think we tend to underestimate the importance of a dominant single starting pitcher in a first to 3 series. You lose to their ace, you need to win all 3 games against the rest of the staff.

If you don't have a lead going into the 8th inning, you won't have one to end the game.

When they're on, Marmol and Wood are a great closing combination. But so far this year, the Cubs have lost 15 games when their opponents didn't have a lead going into the eighth.

Recent comments

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  • Check out John Arguello at Cubs Den for great analysis & photos from Cubs AZ Instructs

    link

    Arizona Phil 6 hours 28 min ago view
  • soler + hammel for mike trout is pretty much a sure thing. *nods*

    crunch 11 hours 45 min ago view
  • Not an inspired outing by Rondon. Seemingly got ahead of every hitter but had no swing and miss pitch today, slider had no bite.

    Somebody give Soler some smelling salts - yeesh

    Eric S 11 hours 46 min ago view
  • And...now that runner scores on a single...

    The E-Man 11 hours 58 min ago view
  • So where do you think Soler will be traded to this off season?

    jacos 11 hours 59 min ago view
  • And right on cue he throws to third with no chance to get runner on 2nd so the batter takes 2nd easily. How long has he been playing baseball??

    The E-Man 11 hours 59 min ago view
  • Man you cannot put Soler out there late in games for Playoffs. Yuch...

    The E-Man 12 hours 7 min ago view
  • Such is the life of a fatted calf...

    JoePepitone 12 hours 21 min ago view
  • fowler with a triple in the 4th...he's a HR away from a "natural" cycle

    crunch 12 hours 53 min ago view
  • ...and contreras takes one off the hand and he's in obvious pain. sigh.

    he's staying in the game, though he's wringing his hand out during breaks in the action. aside from that he seems to have no issue giving signs or tossing back to the pitcher.

    ...and he's batting in the cubs half of the following inning. sweet.

    crunch 12 hours 57 min ago view
  • his collapse started on august 21st this season...so it's a slight improvement.

    but wow, what a collapse since then...only 2 out of 7 can be considered good/decent.

    crunch 13 hours 9 min ago view
  • I'm really going to enjoy watching Hammel watch the playoffs.

    Jackstraw 13 hours 28 min ago view
  • The always combustible Jason Hammel

    jacos 13 hours 48 min ago view
  • Hammel :(

    Charlie 13 hours 50 min ago view
  • That was fun.

    Charlie 16 hours 49 min ago view
  • "home field advantage through the playoffs?"

    Except for the away games.

    VirginiaPhil 17 hours 2 min ago view