Cubs MLB Roster

Cubs Organizational Depth Chart
40-Man Roster Info

40 players are on the MLB RESERVE LIST (roster is full), plus two players are on the 60-DAY IL 

26 players on MLB RESERVE LIST are ACTIVE, ten players are on OPTIONAL ASSIGNMENT to minors, two players are on the 15-DAY IL, and two players are on the 10-DAY IL

Last updated 4-17-2024
 
* bats or throws left
# bats both

PITCHERS: 13
Yency Almonte
Adbert Alzolay 
Javier Assad
Colten Brewer
Ben Brown
Kyle Hendricks
* Shota Imanaga
Mark Leiter Jr
Hector Neris 
* Drew Smyly
Keegan Thompson
Hayden Wesneski 
* Jordan Wicks

CATCHERS: 2
Miguel Amaya
Yan Gomes

INFIELDERS: 7
* Michael Busch 
Garrett Cooper
Nico Hoerner
Nick Madrigal
* Miles Mastrobuoni
Christopher Morel
Dansby Swanson

OUTFIELDERS: 4
* Cody Bellinger 
# Ian Happ
Seiya Suzuki
* Mike Tauchman 

OPTIONED: 10 
Kevin Alcantara, OF 
Michael Arias, P 
Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF 
Jose Cuas, P 
Brennen Davis, OF 
Porter Hodge, P 
* Luke Little, P 
* Matt Mervis, 1B 
Daniel Palencia, P 
Luis Vazquez, INF 

10-DAY IL: 2 
Seiya Suzuki, OF
Patrick Wisdom, INF 

15-DAY IL: 2
* Justin Steele, P  
Jameson Taillon, P 

60-DAY IL: 2 
Caleb Kilian, P 
Julian Merryweather, P
 





Minor League Rosters
Rule 5 Draft 
Minor League Free-Agents

Mmmm...Secret Sauce

One of the many toys at Baseball Prospectus is something they call "Secret Sauce". BP has successfully cracked the code to playoff success and nailed the last 45 World Series winners. What? How have you never heard of this amazing prediction system? Because I made that last part up, but nevertheless a fun tool to look at as we await our playoff opponent.

I looked back through 2000 and BP did predict three World Series winners and six of the 16 participants in the World Series correct. You scoff, but what's your playoff prediction success rate?

The formula is simple enough and rather intuitive to what is commonly believed among baseball folks that power pitching, a good closer and good defense wins in the playoffs. In this case, BP uses FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average), EqK9 (Equivalent Strikeout Rates per 9 innings) and WXRL (Win above Replacement Pitcher for the team's closer) and comes up with a score.

Their predictions and the 2008 rankings after the jump.

The following list is the top AL and NL team and the first team listed had the better "Secret Sauce" score, thus the team supposed to win the World Series according to this BP metric.

2007: Red Sox vs Diamondbacks (Cubs were 3rd among playoff teams)

2006: Twins vs. Mets (Cardinals were 8th among playoff teams)

2005: Angels vs. Houston (White Sox were 3rd among playoff teams. Amusingly the Cubs were 1st overall that year)

2004: Red Sox vs. Dodgers

2003: Athletics vs. Cubs (Marlins were 8th among playoff teams)

2002: Diamondbacks vs. Angels

2001: Diamondbacks vs. Yankees (the 116-win Mariners were 3rd among AL playoff teams and 5th among all playoff teams, thanks to low strikeout rates and an average-rated bullpen).

2000: White Sox vs. Cardinals (Yankees were 2nd among playoff teams)

They nailed 2001 and got both Red Sox years correct. The two teams they were the most off on were the 2006 Cardinals and 2003 Marlins, which could arguably be the two biggest surprise World Series winners of this decade.

As for 2008, the potential playoff teams are below with their overall rank in parenthesis (of course, non-playoff teams could score well in this metric but they don't get to play in the playoffs)

Team
FRAA
FRAA Rank
EqK9
EqK9 Rank
WXRL
WXRL Rank
Score
Boston (1st)
 38  4th  7.5 1st
2.97
11th
16
Angels (3rd)
28
6th
 6.8 9th
5.31
3rd
18
Cubs (4th)
54
2nd
7.4
3rd
1.98
16th
21
White Sox(5th)
-17
21st
7.2
4th
4.62
5th
30
Rays(6th)
58
1st
6.7
11th
1.62
20th
32
Phillies (12th)
-3
17th
6.1
22nd
7.45
1st
40
Twins (16th)
11
11th
5.8
27th
4.58
6th
44
Brewers (17th)
 15  10th 6.1
20th
2.79
14th
44
Dodgers (19th)
-2
15th
6.6
12th
1.72
19th
46
Mets (20th)
16
9th
6.2
15th
1.46
23rd
47

There's a big drop-off there after the first three teams and I should note that they use Billy Wagner as the Mets closer, so it's even more bleak for the Metropolitans.The Cubs have a large advantage over any other NL team, as they do in just about every statistical  category.

The weak link, as expected, is the bullpen and particularly Kerry Wood, who hasn't been quite as lights out as we all would have liked. Some of that WXRL score though is attributed to him missing time as it is a cumulative stat. And for what it's worth, Carlos Marmol has been the 2nd best reliever in the NL this year by WXRL with a 4.95 behind the Phillies Brad Lidge. The Cubs of course aren't going to mess with the formula of Marmol setting up Wood, and there will likely be times in the playoffs where that will actually be beneficial for the Cubs as Marmol will end up facing the opposing teams better hitters. I also hold the belief that Lou should strongly consider using Marmol for two innings on the games before any scheduled off days.

It might not be a sports almanac from the future, but it'll have to do for this year.


P.S. - You can play "All the Way" to your heart's content on the lower right sidebar.

Comments

If you put $100 a year on whomever the BP "Secret Sauce"  predicted as the World Series winner before the playoffs, would you come out ahead over the last 8 years?

I guess that means knowing the odds of each winner going into the postseason that year.

I put some down on the cubs before the season. They were 10:1 at that point. I just wish i had put more than 10 bucks at this point.

Cubs had a 97% chance of winning game six in 2003. Cubs didn't lose 2 in a row with Wood and Prior on the mound in 2003. When it comes to the playoffs, I go out of my way to ignore stats. The series are just too short to be able to accurately predict with any confidence based on stats. 1 great starting pitcher can be all a team needs in a short series, and a couple unlucky breaks in a 7 game series is all that's needed to turn it around on it's head. For the record, I was a fantastic 0-7 in predicting playoff series outcomes in 2006. I think I'll refrain this year...and just wait for the games to be played.

[ ]

In reply to by Chad

yes, it was with 1 out in the 8th. (Although I think BP showed something like 93% cubs would win the series when they went up 3-1 in games) My point is, over the course of a 162 game season, the fluke's will balance each other out and looking at stats and predicting a certain outcome has some merit. In a playoff series, a fluke turns the series on it's head and wipes out any meaningful predictive stats. All it took was Prior and Wood losing back-to-back once to make that stat entirely meaningless.

[ ]

In reply to by Chad

I didn't say it was cut and dry. I'm saying that a better record for a team in the East, in one particular year, than a team in the Central doesn't prove them to be a better team. Nor does beating them head to head in the playoffs...though I'd say the Cubs 'beat themselves', if that's possible. 'Better' is entirely subjective, thus it'll always be uncut and wet.

[ ]

In reply to by Chad

Well then you need to reinvest yourself in the study of the English language. Does that 'make' them a better team? No. I didn't say that they were or were not a better team. I said that the record doesn't prove (nor disprove) whether a team was better than another team.

I like the Cubs to win because their goodness outweighs the goodness of other teams. Also, they've got more heart, guts, grit, fire and desire. Those are all the stats I need.

out of the WS participants predicted by this metric (16 total)...5 were ousted in the first round.

Also, they've got more heart, guts, grit, fire and desire. Those are all the stats I need. -------------- don't forget to include SCRAPPINESS. That's the key ingredient. one of the scrappy three as quoted as saying they refer to themselves as "the little fighters"...so we got that going for us as well.

Recent comments

  • crunch (view)

    just waiting to hear patrick wisdom and masterboney are spotted at the airport going in opposite directions...

    aj puk going for the marlins (lefty)...gotta imagine we'll see wisdom in the lineup.

    someone has to make room for taillon, too.

  • crunch (view)

    he's a low-level cubs star in the modern history of the cubs (c.zambrano, k.wood, r.dempster, etc), but that star has dimmed...and has been dimming since 2021.

    2024 has been ugly the whole way and we're only in mid-april.  homers aside (even though there's been 7 in 17ip) he gave up 29 hits in 20 spring innings and 31 in 17 regular season innings.

    he's pretty much only got 2 pitches at this point in his career and the mix isn't fooling anyone.  he threw a noticable amount more curves in his last start to add to the mix and it didn't help his issues.  he don't have many moves left to break out.

  • Eric S (view)

    Definitely needs a 10 day stint for the hangnail - have to nip those things in the bud or suffer the consequences (ie, more opponent home run derby, etc)

  • Eric S (view)

    Thanks for checking and yeah, that’s a double ouch

  • Sonicwind75 (view)

    Believe you are correct, checked and appears Cubs have a $2.51 million obligation to Barnhart this season per Cot's Contracts.  Also paying Trey Mancini $7mil this season.  Ouch.  

  • crunch (view)

    m.busch had 0hr and 2 doubles when he was last at wrigley.

    we'll probably see a few more of his jerseys in the seats when they return tomorrow.

    wonder who will go down for taillon.  hey hendricks, you got a hangnail or something?

  • Eric S (view)

    Nice work by Wesneski with some solid defense behind him and the late tack on runs were welcome. Gladly take a 5-4 West Coast swing, particularly down two key starting pitchers … Now just don’t get swept by the Marlins for Pete’s sake. 

  • crunch (view)

    dansby takes the team lead in SB today after a SB with 2 SB total.  the team has 3.  madrigal has the other one.

    cubs also have 7 triples, 7 players each.

  • crunch (view)

    sure am ready for p.wisdom and m.masterboney to swap roster spots.

  • Eric S (view)

    The fifth inning has not been kind to Wicks this season. Giving up leadoff doubles to Tucker Barnhart is also not good for business. IIRC, the Cubs are on the hook for the majority of Barnhart’s salary this season to add insult to injury (could definitely be wrong here).