Who Says the Cubs are Playing for Nothing?

The Cubs are set to mercifully play their final game of the season against the San Diego Padres tonight. Other than the rather meaningless goal of Ryan Dempster hitting 200 innings, a win or loss could be the difference between drafting Ryan Braun or Wade Townsend.

As you probably know, the Cubs are in a September race of their own that has come down to the final day. Oh sure, nothing as immediately gratifying as the current wild card races, but depending on how the games play out tonight, the Cubs can do as well as the 5th spot in the draft or fall back as far as the 8th spot. The ramifications of which could be rather meaningful for next year's draft and upcoming Cubs seasons. Just going back to 1995, here's who was picked #5 through #8:

  • 1995: Ariel Prieto, Jaime Jones, J. Johnson, T. Helton
  • 1996: John Patterson, Seth Greisinger, Matt White, Chad Green
  • 1997:  V. Wells, Geoff Goetz, D. Reichert, JJ Davis
  • 1998: JD Drew, Ryan Mills, Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez
  • 1999: B.J Garbe, Josh Girdley, Kyle Snyder, Bobby Bradley
  • 2000: Justin Wayne, Rocco Baldelli, Matt Harrington, Matt Wheatland
  • 2001: Mark Teixeira, Josh Karp, Chris Smith, J. Van Benschoten
  • 2002: Clint Everts, Zack Greinke, Prince Fielder, Scott Moore
  • 2003: Chris Lubanski, Ryan Harvey, Nick Markakis, Paul Maholm
  • 2004: Mark Rogers, Jeremy Sowers, Homer Bailey, Wade Townsend (O's)
  • 2005: Ryan Braun, Ricky Romero, Troy Tulowitzki, Wade Townsend (Rays)
  • 2006: Brandon Morrow, Andrew Miller, Clayton Kershaw, Drew Stubbs
  • 2007: Matt Wieters, Ross Detwiler, Matt LaPorta, Casey Weathers
  • 2008: Buster Posey, Kyle Skipworth, Yonder Alonso, Gordon Beckham
  • 2009: Matthew Hobgood, Zack Wheeler, Mike Minor, Mike Leake
  • 2010: Drew Pomeranz, Barret Loux, Matt Harvey, Delino DeShields Jr.
  • 2011: Bubba Starling, Anthong Rendon, Archie Bradley, Francisco Lindor

Not that you can't get a good pick at #8, and it might even be better than the #5 pick, but you have to like your chances a lot better at #5. Had Soriano struck out yesterday like he normally does, it would have just been a battle for the 5th or 6th spot tonight.

Team W-L .PCT GB
Houston 56-105 .348 --
Minnesota 62-99 .385 6.0
Seattle 67-94 .416 11.0
Baltimore
 68-93 .422 12.0
San Diego
 70-91 .435 14.0
Kansas City
 71-90 .441 15.0
Cubs 71-90 .441 15.0
Pittsburgh 72-89 .447 16.0
Florida 72-89 .447 16.0
Colorado 72-89 .447 16.0
Oakland 73-88 .453 17.0

The first four spots of the 2012 draft are locked as Seattle owns the tiebreaker over Baltimore to get the #3 spot. That tiebreaker is whomever had the worse record the prior season. The Cubs currently hold the 7th spot in the draft losing the tiebreaker to the Royals. The Cubs also lose the tiebreaker to the Pirates if they end up tied, but hold a tiebreak advantage over the Marlins, Rockies and Padres and thus can do no worse than the #8 spot in the draft.  So here are the potential scenarios for the 5th spot with the number in parenthesis being the number of season wins in that scenario:

Cubs lose thus Padres win (71), Royals win(72), Pirates win or lose(72
or 73) = tie between Cubs and Padres and Cubs get the 5th spot

Cubs lose (71) thus Padres win (71), Royals lose(71), Pirates win or lose(72 or 73) = 3-way tie between Cubs, Royals and Padres with Royals taking the #5 spot, Cubs #6, Padres #7.

Cubs win (72) thus Padres lose (70), Royals lose(71), Pirates win(73) = Padres get 5th spot, Royals 6th, Cubs 7th, Pirates 8th, 9th or 10th depending on Marlins and Rockies game (Pirates own tiebreak advantage over both).

Cubs win (72) thus Padres lose (70), Royals lose(71), Pirates lose(72) = Padres get 5th spot, Royals 6th, Pirates 7th, Cubs 8th and doesn't matter what Marlins or Rockies do

Cubs win (72) thus Padres lose (70), Royals win (72), Pirates win (73) =  Padres get 5th spot, Royals 6th, Cubs 7th, Pirates 8th, 9th or 10th depending on Marlins and Rockies games

Cubs win (72) thus Padres lose (70), Royals win (72), Pirates lose (72) = Padres get 5th spot, Pirates 6th, Royals 7th, Cubs 8th

I left Oakland in there, although they have no effect on the Cubs, but if you're curious they own the tiebreaker over Rockies, but lose it to Pirates and Marlins.

Ultimately, a Cubs loss means either the #5 or #6 pick and a Cubs win means either the 7th or 8th pick. A Cubs loss and Royals win is what we should all be rooting for tonight.

Tags: 
2011 Cubs Season
Submitted by Rob G. on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 5:26pm
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Comments

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 5:28pm

Castro SS,DeWitt 2B, Ramirez 3B, Baker 1B,Johnson LF,Montanez RF,Campana CF,Hill C, Dempster P

Submitted by Charlie
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 5:53pm

Baker Johnson Montanez Campana Hill 4-8. Lol. No, really. What's the batting order tonight?

Submitted by crunch
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 5:53pm

i'll take that cubs win, thank you.

go scrubbies.

Submitted by Rob Richardson
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 5:59pm

Sorry if this is old news.

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/chicago/cubs-zamb...

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 6:09pm

Z's gonna be a great fantasy pick next year, motivated for a new deal, could see him in Florida or with Mets.

Submitted by crunch
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 6:19pm

fwiw and imo, he was a great chicago citizen and helped out many organizations and charities while he was in chicago.

see ya Z...don't hurt the cubs from the other side.

Submitted by Cubster
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 6:05pm

...Campana Hill 4-8. Lol.
---
Does Campana running the bases ahead of KHill, slipstream Koyie by +5 mph as he runs to first?

Tonight is the end of the Koyie era?

Submitted by Charlie
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 6:48pm

Tonight is the end of the Koyie era?

Ah. Fond memories in the making.

Submitted by crunch
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 6:49pm

unless he's going to be a coach you can turn that ? into a .

...i hope

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 6:08pm

on that note, Marlins lost and Rockies won, Marlins can move up to 8th spot if Pirates win.

5th: Padres - 70
6th: Royals - 71
7th: Cubs - 71
8th: Pirates - 72
9th: Marlins - 72
10th: Athletics - 73
11th: Rockies - 73

Submitted by navigator
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 6:15pm

via Twitter Carrie Muskat
#Cubs chair Tom Ricketts is at PETCO to address team

What's the point?

Submitted by crunch
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 6:20pm

aram, johnson, pena, etc going home knowing the state of the organization going forward most likely...along with chilling out the rookies so they dont get a TB situation like 4+ years ago.

he could have done it in chicago...meh. probably just wants and excuse to go drinking in SD. =p

Submitted by Arizona Phil
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 6:37pm

Submitted by navigator on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 5:15pm.
via Twitter Carrie Muskat
#Cubs chair Tom Ricketts is at PETCO to address team

What's the point?

================================

NAVI: It was at exactly this time last year when Ricketts addreesed the Cubs in Houston, and (according to Alan Trammell) Alfonso Soriano was sitting in the back and stopped Ricketts in mid-speech to tell him that the players wanted Mike Quade back as manager in 2011.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 6:15pm

I'll update the sidebar draft pick standings as games finished.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 6:21pm

Braves already losing in the top of 1st

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 6:22pm

Yanks take 1-0 lead as well in top of 1st over Rays

Submitted by jacos
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 6:24pm

STATS_MLB STATS LLC
by lenandbob
With one game remaining, the #Cubs are the only team in #MLB to have not hit a grand slam this season

Submitted by crunch
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 6:27pm

time to shine, campy.

Submitted by big_lowitzki
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 6:58pm

Watch... he'll hit an inside the park grand slam.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 6:56pm

Grand Slam by Teixeira off Price, 5-0 Yanks heading to bottom 2

Red Sox up 1-0 (top 3), Braves/Phillies tied at 1 (bottome 3).

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 7:14pm

O's take 2-1 lead (top 4), Braves take 3-1 lead(bottom 4), Cards up 1-0 already with 0 outs and 2 on, Yanks still up 5-0(top 3).

Submitted by crunch
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 7:30pm

last game of the year and i'm stuck with the SD feed.

special torture...at least their announce crew isn't bad.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 8:02pm

believe that gives NL batting champ to Reyes

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 8:16pm

Pirates down 2-1 (bottom 4), Royals vs. Twins tied 0-0 (top 5), Cubs down 1-0 (bottom 3).

that other race....
Braves up 3-2 (Bottom 7), Cards up 6-0 (top 5), yanks up 7-0 (top 6), Red sox up 3-2 (bottom 6)

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 8:32pm

make it 4-0 Padres

let's go Royals *clap clap*

Submitted by Cubster
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 8:41pm

rain delay in Baltimore, starting bottom 7th; 3-2 Bosox.

Submitted by Cubster
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 8:43pm

Kimbrel coming in to pitch the top of 9th for Bravos still ahead 3-2.

Submitted by jacos
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 9:08pm

Blows it 3-3

Submitted by navigator
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 8:46pm

Bags full nobody out in the fourth, Dumpster having enormous trouble getting the last out he needs for a two hundred IP season.

And Castro blows a double play ball....,

Cubbery~!!

Submitted by crunch
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 9:32pm

i don't even know if i can finish this game without boredom kicking in...especially since i don't even have coverage with a CHC announce crew.

2-9 in the bottom 6th...

Submitted by jacos
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 9:49pm

Rays tie it hr in 9 th 2 outs 2 strikes

Wow

Submitted by Cubster
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 9:54pm

Dan Johnson, pinch hit, line drive HR in the bottom of the 9th to tie the Yanks, 7-7 after the Rays put up a 6 spot in the 8th to come back from a 7-0 defect.

extra innings in Tampa.

Submitted by Cubster
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 9:53pm

and Starlin Castro doubles in the 8th to keep his on base and hit streaks alive until next year...

hit 207.

Submitted by jacos
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 9:55pm

40?

Submitted by Cubster
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 10:03pm

So with the Twins winning 1-0 with a run in the 9th, the Cubs (barring a 9th inning rally) should be drafting 6th next year (Rob's scenario #2).

Cubs lose (71) thus Padres win (71), Royals lose(71), Pirates win or lose(72 or 73) = 3-way tie between Cubs, Royals and Padres with Royals taking the #5 spot, Cubs #6, Padres #7.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 10:24pm

yup

Submitted by Cubster
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 10:41pm

bloop infield single to right side by Pence off Linebrink scores a run in the 13th, Phils ahead 4-3.

Submitted by jacos
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 10:42pm

Cards handed wild card
Fck

Submitted by Cubster
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 10:52pm

stl wins the NL wild card, final 4-3 Phils over Braves. Epic September Collapse by Atlanta. They were ahead by 8-1/2 games on Sept 5th.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 10:42pm

Braves lose...meh.

Submitted by Cubster
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 11:01pm

Nolan Reimold doubles with 2 outs to tie the RedSox at 3...off Papelbon.

Submitted by Cubster
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 11:05pm

and the Red Sox lose on an Andino single that LF Crawford trapped.

Submitted by Cubster
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 11:07pm

Longoria HR to win 8-7 and go to the postseason!

Submitted by big_lowitzki
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 11:06pm

Wow... helluva' an end to the regular season.

Submitted by crunch
on Thu, 09/29/2011 - 12:07am

no doubt.

Submitted by Cubster
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 11:08pm

Boston's collapse was worse than the Braves...they were 9 ahead on Sept 5th.

Submitted by Cubster
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 11:15pm

Detroit (3) at NYY (1), Tampa (4) at Texas (2)

Cards (4) at Phils (1), DBacks (3) at Brewers (2)

Submitted by Rob G.
on Thu, 09/29/2011 - 12:17am

predict

Tigers vs. Tampa (Fox will be thrilled with the ratings on that one)

Phils vs. Brewers

Phils vs. Tigers with Phils winning

Submitted by jacos
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 11:16pm

Holy sh1t

Submitted by Paul Noce
on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 11:57pm

Red Sox team ERA in Sept. was 5.90.

Cubs was 3.33.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Thu, 09/29/2011 - 12:16am

FIRE EPSTEIN!!!

(so the Cubs can hire him)

Submitted by Rob G.
on Thu, 09/29/2011 - 12:38am

on that note, how long does Ricketts have to wait to before calling the Red Sox to start asking permission to talk to their guys?

Submitted by crunch
on Thu, 09/29/2011 - 12:57am

suit quest...wonder how "big" ricketts is gonna go with all this.

i can't tell what's him and what's press hype anymore.

Submitted by navigator
on Thu, 09/29/2011 - 12:16am

Cubs pitching was good last September as well-- 3.41 ERA, fourth best in the NL, and 17-9 won loss. This September thing deserves over-analysis.

Submitted by jacos
on Thu, 09/29/2011 - 7:09am

Facing minor league callups?

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