Who Says the Cubs are Playing for Nothing?
The Cubs are set to mercifully play their final game of the season against the San Diego Padres tonight. Other than the rather meaningless goal of Ryan Dempster hitting 200 innings, a win or loss could be the difference between drafting Ryan Braun or Wade Townsend.
As you probably know, the Cubs are in a September race of their own that has come down to the final day. Oh sure, nothing as immediately gratifying as the current wild card races, but depending on how the games play out tonight, the Cubs can do as well as the 5th spot in the draft or fall back as far as the 8th spot. The ramifications of which could be rather meaningful for next year's draft and upcoming Cubs seasons. Just going back to 1995, here's who was picked #5 through #8:
- 1995: Ariel Prieto, Jaime Jones, J. Johnson, T. Helton
- 1996: John Patterson, Seth Greisinger, Matt White, Chad Green
- 1997: V. Wells, Geoff Goetz, D. Reichert, JJ Davis
- 1998: JD Drew, Ryan Mills, Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez
- 1999: B.J Garbe, Josh Girdley, Kyle Snyder, Bobby Bradley
- 2000: Justin Wayne, Rocco Baldelli, Matt Harrington, Matt Wheatland
- 2001: Mark Teixeira, Josh Karp, Chris Smith, J. Van Benschoten
- 2002: Clint Everts, Zack Greinke, Prince Fielder, Scott Moore
- 2003: Chris Lubanski, Ryan Harvey, Nick Markakis, Paul Maholm
- 2004: Mark Rogers, Jeremy Sowers, Homer Bailey, Wade Townsend (O's)
- 2005: Ryan Braun, Ricky Romero, Troy Tulowitzki, Wade Townsend (Rays)
- 2006: Brandon Morrow, Andrew Miller, Clayton Kershaw, Drew Stubbs
- 2007: Matt Wieters, Ross Detwiler, Matt LaPorta, Casey Weathers
- 2008: Buster Posey, Kyle Skipworth, Yonder Alonso, Gordon Beckham
- 2009: Matthew Hobgood, Zack Wheeler, Mike Minor, Mike Leake
- 2010: Drew Pomeranz, Barret Loux, Matt Harvey, Delino DeShields Jr.
- 2011: Bubba Starling, Anthong Rendon, Archie Bradley, Francisco Lindor
Not that you can't get a good pick at #8, and it might even be better than the #5 pick, but you have to like your chances a lot better at #5. Had Soriano struck out yesterday like he normally does, it would have just been a battle for the 5th or 6th spot tonight.
The first four spots of the 2012 draft are locked as Seattle owns the tiebreaker over Baltimore to get the #3 spot. That tiebreaker is whomever had the worse record the prior season. The Cubs currently hold the 7th spot in the draft losing the tiebreaker to the Royals. The Cubs also lose the tiebreaker to the Pirates if they end up tied, but hold a tiebreak advantage over the Marlins, Rockies and Padres and thus can do no worse than the #8 spot in the draft. So here are the potential scenarios for the 5th spot with the number in parenthesis being the number of season wins in that scenario:
Cubs lose thus Padres win (71), Royals win(72), Pirates win or lose(72
or 73) = tie between Cubs and Padres and Cubs get the 5th spot
Cubs lose (71) thus Padres win (71), Royals lose(71), Pirates win or lose(72 or 73) = 3-way tie between Cubs, Royals and Padres with Royals taking the #5 spot, Cubs #6, Padres #7.
Cubs win (72) thus Padres lose (70), Royals lose(71), Pirates win(73) = Padres get 5th spot, Royals 6th, Cubs 7th, Pirates 8th, 9th or 10th depending on Marlins and Rockies game (Pirates own tiebreak advantage over both).
Cubs win (72) thus Padres lose (70), Royals lose(71), Pirates lose(72) = Padres get 5th spot, Royals 6th, Pirates 7th, Cubs 8th and doesn't matter what Marlins or Rockies do
Cubs win (72) thus Padres lose (70), Royals win (72), Pirates win (73) = Padres get 5th spot, Royals 6th, Cubs 7th, Pirates 8th, 9th or 10th depending on Marlins and Rockies games
Cubs win (72) thus Padres lose (70), Royals win (72), Pirates lose (72) = Padres get 5th spot, Pirates 6th, Royals 7th, Cubs 8th
I left Oakland in there, although they have no effect on the Cubs, but if you're curious they own the tiebreaker over Rockies, but lose it to Pirates and Marlins.
Ultimately, a Cubs loss means either the #5 or #6 pick and a Cubs win means either the 7th or 8th pick. A Cubs loss and Royals win is what we should all be rooting for tonight.
it took you 4 posts to get to this?
have you checked the batteries in your carbon monoxide tester?
Fwiw, Billy Hamilton's actual WAR numbers that relate to the ones that I posted for Mike Trout are:
- 2014: 2.5
- 2015: 1.0
- 2016: 2.6
But by all means #crunchsplain on the stupidity of WAR while exaggerating your points. I can't wait to read more.
Thanks for the awesome give and take today and for the 535 words you spilled filling in all the gaps that I woefully neglected. We're all a little wiser and better for it. I look forward to your play-by-play summary later in the comments.
it was about a post comparing players based on WAR...and comparing WAR values of a CF to a slew of other players...a post that you made...and i made a comment...that talked about D weighting of WAR...and comparinging WAR values of a CF to a slew of other players...etc etc...
hell, we didn't even get in deep. i didn't even involve UZR or FIP versions and their strengths/weaknesses...or position mandated "handicapping" in points...etc.
let's not talk about that...cool, fine, awesome. context sucks. san dimas highschool football rules.
Thanks for shining a light on this very important topic and steering it away from the frivolity that was the awesomenes of Mike Trout, but moreso on the foolishness of WAR as a metric to judge the value of center fielders. We're all a little wiser now and your contributions are invaluable to this community and to America's pastime. God Bless!
so...what's chan-yong lim up to these days?
yes, those hamilton WAR numbers are very reasonable. i'm on your side now based on that biting commentary and reasoning of why he's a 3.5-ish WAR player over a 600 PA season.
those numbers are obviously well deserved and worthy of no scrutiny...none at all. no issue.
CF D is rarer than a jon lester pickoff at 2nd...totally irreplaceable...no way in hell there's good D, low/no-hitting CF's in anyone's system that could do what hamilton is doing. guys like this don't exist...you get like, 2-3 at any given time in history.
Please do not discuss War here. I think the Cub Reporter should be politics free.
But yes, whether you support War or Peace...Mike Trout is ridiculously consistent and good.
"According to FOX Sports' Jon Morosi, Tim Tebow's baseball workout Tuesday in Los Angeles will be attended by scouts from "roughly half" of the 30 major league teams."
"One scout told ESPN.com last week that Tebow's swing is so long it might "take out the front row." That's not a good thing."
MyrtleBeachPelicans [email protected]
The #MBpelicans and @Cubs have extended their PDC through 2020!
Carolina League getting 2 new teams too.
CF WAR is ridiculous...billy hamilton is pulling a 3.0 WAR somehow...and managed a 2.0 WAR last year (even though he missed a month of the season)...and a 3.7 WAR in 2014.
yeah, a lot depends on how one is doing relative to others at a given position, but WAR is common used (right or wrong) as a blanket comparing all kinds of players.
trout's one of the best, and at this point should probably win over donaldson (and should have more MVPs in the past, too), but the defensive aspect of valuing WAR still needs more tweaking...imo.
Mike Trout is ridiculous