Who Says the Cubs are Playing for Nothing?

The Cubs are set to mercifully play their final game of the season against the San Diego Padres tonight. Other than the rather meaningless goal of Ryan Dempster hitting 200 innings, a win or loss could be the difference between drafting Ryan Braun or Wade Townsend.

As you probably know, the Cubs are in a September race of their own that has come down to the final day. Oh sure, nothing as immediately gratifying as the current wild card races, but depending on how the games play out tonight, the Cubs can do as well as the 5th spot in the draft or fall back as far as the 8th spot. The ramifications of which could be rather meaningful for next year's draft and upcoming Cubs seasons. Just going back to 1995, here's who was picked #5 through #8:

  • 1995: Ariel Prieto, Jaime Jones, J. Johnson, T. Helton
  • 1996: John Patterson, Seth Greisinger, Matt White, Chad Green
  • 1997:  V. Wells, Geoff Goetz, D. Reichert, JJ Davis
  • 1998: JD Drew, Ryan Mills, Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez
  • 1999: B.J Garbe, Josh Girdley, Kyle Snyder, Bobby Bradley
  • 2000: Justin Wayne, Rocco Baldelli, Matt Harrington, Matt Wheatland
  • 2001: Mark Teixeira, Josh Karp, Chris Smith, J. Van Benschoten
  • 2002: Clint Everts, Zack Greinke, Prince Fielder, Scott Moore
  • 2003: Chris Lubanski, Ryan Harvey, Nick Markakis, Paul Maholm
  • 2004: Mark Rogers, Jeremy Sowers, Homer Bailey, Wade Townsend (O's)
  • 2005: Ryan Braun, Ricky Romero, Troy Tulowitzki, Wade Townsend (Rays)
  • 2006: Brandon Morrow, Andrew Miller, Clayton Kershaw, Drew Stubbs
  • 2007: Matt Wieters, Ross Detwiler, Matt LaPorta, Casey Weathers
  • 2008: Buster Posey, Kyle Skipworth, Yonder Alonso, Gordon Beckham
  • 2009: Matthew Hobgood, Zack Wheeler, Mike Minor, Mike Leake
  • 2010: Drew Pomeranz, Barret Loux, Matt Harvey, Delino DeShields Jr.
  • 2011: Bubba Starling, Anthong Rendon, Archie Bradley, Francisco Lindor

Not that you can't get a good pick at #8, and it might even be better than the #5 pick, but you have to like your chances a lot better at #5. Had Soriano struck out yesterday like he normally does, it would have just been a battle for the 5th or 6th spot tonight.

Team W-L .PCT GB
Houston 56-105 .348 --
Minnesota 62-99 .385 6.0
Seattle 67-94 .416 11.0
Baltimore
68-93 .422 12.0
San Diego
70-91 .435 14.0
Kansas City
71-90 .441 15.0
Cubs 71-90 .441 15.0
Pittsburgh 72-89 .447 16.0
Florida 72-89 .447 16.0
Colorado 72-89 .447 16.0
Oakland 73-88 .453 17.0

The first four spots of the 2012 draft are locked as Seattle owns the tiebreaker over Baltimore to get the #3 spot. That tiebreaker is whomever had the worse record the prior season. The Cubs currently hold the 7th spot in the draft losing the tiebreaker to the Royals. The Cubs also lose the tiebreaker to the Pirates if they end up tied, but hold a tiebreak advantage over the Marlins, Rockies and Padres and thus can do no worse than the #8 spot in the draft.  So here are the potential scenarios for the 5th spot with the number in parenthesis being the number of season wins in that scenario:

Cubs lose thus Padres win (71), Royals win(72), Pirates win or lose(72
or 73) = tie between Cubs and Padres and Cubs get the 5th spot

Cubs lose (71) thus Padres win (71), Royals lose(71), Pirates win or lose(72 or 73) = 3-way tie between Cubs, Royals and Padres with Royals taking the #5 spot, Cubs #6, Padres #7.

Cubs win (72) thus Padres lose (70), Royals lose(71), Pirates win(73) = Padres get 5th spot, Royals 6th, Cubs 7th, Pirates 8th, 9th or 10th depending on Marlins and Rockies game (Pirates own tiebreak advantage over both).

Cubs win (72) thus Padres lose (70), Royals lose(71), Pirates lose(72) = Padres get 5th spot, Royals 6th, Pirates 7th, Cubs 8th and doesn't matter what Marlins or Rockies do

Cubs win (72) thus Padres lose (70), Royals win (72), Pirates win (73) =  Padres get 5th spot, Royals 6th, Cubs 7th, Pirates 8th, 9th or 10th depending on Marlins and Rockies games

Cubs win (72) thus Padres lose (70), Royals win (72), Pirates lose (72) = Padres get 5th spot, Pirates 6th, Royals 7th, Cubs 8th

I left Oakland in there, although they have no effect on the Cubs, but if you're curious they own the tiebreaker over Rockies, but lose it to Pirates and Marlins.

Ultimately, a Cubs loss means either the #5 or #6 pick and a Cubs win means either the 7th or 8th pick. A Cubs loss and Royals win is what we should all be rooting for tonight.

Comments

Castro SS,DeWitt 2B, Ramirez 3B, Baker 1B,Johnson LF,Montanez RF,Campana CF,Hill C, Dempster P

Baker Johnson Montanez Campana Hill 4-8. Lol. No, really. What's the batting order tonight?

i'll take that cubs win, thank you.

go scrubbies.

Z's gonna be a great fantasy pick next year, motivated for a new deal, could see him in Florida or with Mets.

fwiw and imo, he was a great chicago citizen and helped out many organizations and charities while he was in chicago.

see ya Z...don't hurt the cubs from the other side.

...Campana Hill 4-8. Lol.
---
Does Campana running the bases ahead of KHill, slipstream Koyie by +5 mph as he runs to first?

Tonight is the end of the Koyie era?

Tonight is the end of the Koyie era?

Ah. Fond memories in the making.

unless he's going to be a coach you can turn that ? into a .

...i hope

on that note, Marlins lost and Rockies won, Marlins can move up to 8th spot if Pirates win.

5th: Padres - 70
6th: Royals - 71
7th: Cubs - 71
8th: Pirates - 72
9th: Marlins - 72
10th: Athletics - 73
11th: Rockies - 73

via Twitter Carrie Muskat
#Cubs chair Tom Ricketts is at PETCO to address team

What's the point?

aram, johnson, pena, etc going home knowing the state of the organization going forward most likely...along with chilling out the rookies so they dont get a TB situation like 4+ years ago.

he could have done it in chicago...meh. probably just wants and excuse to go drinking in SD. =p

Submitted by navigator on Wed, 09/28/2011 - 5:15pm.
via Twitter Carrie Muskat
#Cubs chair Tom Ricketts is at PETCO to address team

What's the point?

================================

NAVI: It was at exactly this time last year when Ricketts addreesed the Cubs in Houston, and (according to Alan Trammell) Alfonso Soriano was sitting in the back and stopped Ricketts in mid-speech to tell him that the players wanted Mike Quade back as manager in 2011.

I'll update the sidebar draft pick standings as games finished.

Braves already losing in the top of 1st

Yanks take 1-0 lead as well in top of 1st over Rays

STATS_MLB STATS LLC
by lenandbob
With one game remaining, the #Cubs are the only team in #MLB to have not hit a grand slam this season

time to shine, campy.

Watch... he'll hit an inside the park grand slam.

Grand Slam by Teixeira off Price, 5-0 Yanks heading to bottom 2

Red Sox up 1-0 (top 3), Braves/Phillies tied at 1 (bottome 3).

O's take 2-1 lead (top 4), Braves take 3-1 lead(bottom 4), Cards up 1-0 already with 0 outs and 2 on, Yanks still up 5-0(top 3).

last game of the year and i'm stuck with the SD feed.

special torture...at least their announce crew isn't bad.

believe that gives NL batting champ to Reyes

Pirates down 2-1 (bottom 4), Royals vs. Twins tied 0-0 (top 5), Cubs down 1-0 (bottom 3).

that other race....
Braves up 3-2 (Bottom 7), Cards up 6-0 (top 5), yanks up 7-0 (top 6), Red sox up 3-2 (bottom 6)

make it 4-0 Padres

let's go Royals *clap clap*

rain delay in Baltimore, starting bottom 7th; 3-2 Bosox.

Kimbrel coming in to pitch the top of 9th for Bravos still ahead 3-2.

Blows it 3-3

Bags full nobody out in the fourth, Dumpster having enormous trouble getting the last out he needs for a two hundred IP season.

And Castro blows a double play ball....,

Cubbery~!!

i don't even know if i can finish this game without boredom kicking in...especially since i don't even have coverage with a CHC announce crew.

2-9 in the bottom 6th...

Rays tie it hr in 9 th 2 outs 2 strikes

Wow

Dan Johnson, pinch hit, line drive HR in the bottom of the 9th to tie the Yanks, 7-7 after the Rays put up a 6 spot in the 8th to come back from a 7-0 defect.

extra innings in Tampa.

and Starlin Castro doubles in the 8th to keep his on base and hit streaks alive until next year...

hit 207.

40?

So with the Twins winning 1-0 with a run in the 9th, the Cubs (barring a 9th inning rally) should be drafting 6th next year (Rob's scenario #2).

Cubs lose (71) thus Padres win (71), Royals lose(71), Pirates win or lose(72 or 73) = 3-way tie between Cubs, Royals and Padres with Royals taking the #5 spot, Cubs #6, Padres #7.

yup

bloop infield single to right side by Pence off Linebrink scores a run in the 13th, Phils ahead 4-3.

Cards handed wild card
Fck

stl wins the NL wild card, final 4-3 Phils over Braves. Epic September Collapse by Atlanta. They were ahead by 8-1/2 games on Sept 5th.

Braves lose...meh.

Nolan Reimold doubles with 2 outs to tie the RedSox at 3...off Papelbon.

and the Red Sox lose on an Andino single that LF Crawford trapped.

Longoria HR to win 8-7 and go to the postseason!

Wow... helluva' an end to the regular season.

no doubt.

Boston's collapse was worse than the Braves...they were 9 ahead on Sept 5th.

Detroit (3) at NYY (1), Tampa (4) at Texas (2)

Cards (4) at Phils (1), DBacks (3) at Brewers (2)

predict

Tigers vs. Tampa (Fox will be thrilled with the ratings on that one)

Phils vs. Brewers

Phils vs. Tigers with Phils winning

Holy sh1t

Red Sox team ERA in Sept. was 5.90.

Cubs was 3.33.

FIRE EPSTEIN!!!

(so the Cubs can hire him)

on that note, how long does Ricketts have to wait to before calling the Red Sox to start asking permission to talk to their guys?

suit quest...wonder how "big" ricketts is gonna go with all this.

i can't tell what's him and what's press hype anymore.

Cubs pitching was good last September as well-- 3.41 ERA, fourth best in the NL, and 17-9 won loss. This September thing deserves over-analysis.

Facing minor league callups?

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  • barely any...especially for an evening game. place looks 1/2 full at best to start the game.

    crunch 10 min 15 sec ago view
  • Listening on the radio. Are there any fans in the stands at all?

    Brick 19 min 14 sec ago view
  • "An MRI taken Monday on the right side of Jorge Soler showed no major damage."

    crunch 1 hour 20 min ago view
  • rare air though if he can keep it under 2. Sounds like Maddon already made up his mind though and Hendricks seems like the sort that would want to earn it. Guessing he gets a quick hook if he's still under 2 after 5 innings.

    Fwiw, he can give up 1 ER in 5 innings (or more) and still be under 2. If he gives up 2 ER, he would need throw 9 IP to keep it under 2. 1 ER in 4 IP would give him an ERA of exactly 2.

    In terms of WAR, it's still Scherzer by a lot (6.4), then Cueto (5.6), Lester (5.5), Kershaw (5.5), Roark (5.4), and then Hendricks (5.1)

    Rob G. 2 hours 34 min ago view
  • Boring lineup tonight in terms of guys trying to reach milestones -- no KB (40 HR), Addy (100 RBI) or JHey (can he keep it going?), and Lackey isn't really going for anything, plus the team has already reached 100 wins. I get the "rest" thing, although they will have 4 days off after Sunday, but....bleh.

    billybucks 3 hours 18 min ago view
  • Agree -- I think you want to keep him on a regular schedule.

    billybucks 3 hours 37 min ago view
  • Ramos torn ACL

    jacos 4 hours 5 min ago view
  • Sure, its not about his record.

    jacos 4 hours 7 min ago view
  • Do you start him Sunday or not?

    @jonmorosi Pitchers w/ sub-2.00 ERA in year of 185+ IP this century: Pedro ’00, Clemens ’05, Kershaw ’13/’14, Arrieta ’15, Greinke ’15, Hendricks ’16.

    Rob G. 5 hours 28 min ago view
  • Yeah -- that would be rough for him. But, Monty is getting people out, he's a lefty and he has experience working out of the bullpen. Hammel? None of the above.

    billybucks 6 hours 23 min ago view
  • even if he's not starting, abandoning hammel would be a bit of a 'screw you.' i think it might be -monty +hammel, but it's speculation.

    either way, someone's gonna be disappointed.

    crunch 7 hours 24 min ago view
  • Joe said he is leaning towards 11 pitchers and 14 position players.

    - 4 starters, Chapman, Rondon, Strop, CJ, Wood, Grimm, Monty. No dice for Cahill or Smith.
    - 3 catchers, Rizz, Zo, Addy, KB, Javy, Heyward, Fowler, Soler, Coghlan, TLS and then Sczcur over Almora?

    billybucks 7 hours 35 min ago view
  • Cubs 3B Jason Vosler made two really bad throws on consecutive AB in the 8th. Fortunately the game was no longer in doubt at the time  

    The first one was a one-hop lob that allowed the batter to reach base on an infield single, and the second was air-mailed so far over the first-baseman's head that it went over the fence and landed in Field #4.

    Arizona Phil 8 hours 10 min ago view
  • E-MAN: Despite the HR, Donnie Dewees is really more of a slash hitter (the HR was an opposite-field line-drive) who can accumulate lots of doubles & triples. He's also a good bunter and can get on base that way, too. Although he was thrown out trying to steal in the game, he's actually a good base-stealer and baserunner.

    Defensively he has plus-range and tracks fly balls OK, so he can play CF, but he has a rag arm that requires the middle infielders to go out further into CF to make relays.

    Arizona Phil 8 hours 11 min ago view
  • I don't know how many of you remember Bobby Knoop, who played 2B for the Angels, White Sox, and Royals back in the day, but he is a coach-emeritus for the Angels, and works with the infielders at Minor League Camp, Extended Spring Training, and Instructs. He's pretty spry for a 77-year old, and he really knows his shit.

    Arizona Phil 8 hours 39 min ago view
  • With a big lead, Chapman was throwing sliders and changeups, something he's reluctant to do in a save situation. (Len and Jim covered this.)

    VirginiaPhil 8 hours 48 min ago view