2011 Playoff Predictions

First a look at my 2011 preseason predictions:

Red Sox, Twins, A's with Yankees winning Wild Card (Rays in 4th, Tigers in 2nd and Rangers in 3rd)

Phillies, Rockies, Brewers with Braves winning Wild Card (DBacks in 5th, Cardinals in 4th)

So, so not impressive...

AL:

Tigers vs. Yankees, Tigers in 5

My feeling is that whomever wins Game 1 between Sabathia and Verlander wins the series, so I suppose I'm picking Verlander tonight.

Rays vs. Rangers, Rays in 4

I didn't like the Rangers pitching in April, I still don't like it.

NL:

Cardinals vs. Phillies, Phillies in 3

Just because they should...

DBacks vs. Brewers, Brewers in 5

I should probably pick Cardinals vs. DBacks because I presume everyone else is picking Phillies vs. Brewers, but I tried being different at the beginning of the year and that didn't work.

LCS:

Rays vs. Tigers, Tigers in 6

Brewers vs. Phillies, Phillies in 7

World Series:

Tigers vs. Phillies, Phillies in 5

It's the consensus pick, but that top 3 is just fantastic  and Oswalt even on a down year is no shabby #4. And there's no team that even comes close on the pitching side in my opinion like the Giants did last year.

Comments

steps down as Angels GM.

But he was doing such a great job!

RT @d_a_cameron: Conversation between Moreno and Reagins: "Why am I getting fired?" "You traded for Vernon Wells." "Well, that's fair."

already forgotten about that dan harren trade, eh?

shame LA...shame...

@jay_jaffe Jay Jaffe
Tony Reagins: the Adam Dunn '11 of GM seasons

what's the interest in CJ wilson now?

cj wilson would most likely love to play in a warm climate...specifically the south-west.

also, not a lot is said about how vocally hardheaded he is...but he's very demanding. he makes matt garza look meek.

i dunno how much of a hard-on he has for money, though.

remember the words of lance berkman

I'm not saying he's the savior, but wouldn't it be something to be the guy who won the World Series for the first time in forever for the Cubs and the RedSox?

ha...francona press conference...

reporter - "you managed manny ramirez for a number of years..."
francona - *interrupting* "thank you for brightening my day."

it seems tito, theo, and the owners were all on the same page about all this.

tito even gave credit to the club's press release about needing a culture change. he cited that he can't get though to guys like he used to, even guys he could get to in the past. he said theo wanted to give him some time to think about it since the collapse is so fresh. you get the indication that owners/theo could have gone either way with him staying or leaving, but francona made the ultimate choice, himself.

some people may like those ozzie-style or mckeon-style "throw players under the bus" types, but tito is a guy that will forever suck it up for his players.

Rob, you have the Rays getting to the Series, but the Tigers losing to the Phils.

giving myself an out :)

I did mean Tigers.

I think any of the LCS teams I picked could win it all.

I don't care much for the DBacks, Yanks, Rangers or Cardinals winning it.

rooting for my future home state of AZ, myself...thinking DET more likely, though.

i dunno if ARZ can even make it past the brewers...i know i wouldn't be betting my own loot on it.

if the Cubs only had 9 Kelly Shoppach's on their team

3 would forget how to hit, 2 would fight each other and get put on leave, 1 would have a career-ending injury, 1 would have a BABIP of .165, 1 would hit .335 get expensive and be "untradable" due to being the team's best player, and the last one would be kept around because he's a good clubhouse guy.

1 would get gigantism,
1 would get arrested,
1 would be out from radition poisoning,
1 would be out from smoke inhalation from fire rescue,
1 would get lost in the 5th dimension,
1 would be kicked off the team for sideburn malfunction,
and 1 would hit homers on command

can't remember the other two

so much win...

ha...speaking of one-time hot-shot "next GM" talents...

"Matt Kemp's agent Dave Stewart said his client will not talk about a contract extension with the Dodgers once the 2012 season begins."

i forgot he started an agency...at least he's got some good clients. he was at one time a very high end suit after his mlb career...should have been a GM...loves the suit side of the game as much as the game, itself.

from Jayson Stark

To clarify, this would be worst Game 1 SHUTOUT loss since '84 Padres to Cubs.

Take the Rangers... Seems like Sutcliff's HR in that game would make it worse.

And like game one of the 1959 World Series.

I'd also like to see 92,000 fans at a game like they had at the Coliseum for the games they had there in Los Angeles.

Recent comments

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  • If it was 2006 Hendry would be there w a Bible and a contract
    https://mobile.twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/77...

    jacos 1 hour 18 min ago view
  • he subscribes to my twitter, he's beyond TCR. #yolo #swag

    crunch 1 hour 56 min ago view
  • Whoops. Maddon must have been reading TCR (for his daily crunch) and got confused.

    CTSteve 1 hour 58 min ago view
  • kuhl is a righty, not a lefty.

    i think maddon might think kuhl is a lefty, too. i wonder what the reasoning is for baez leading off vs a rightie.

    crunch 2 hours 39 min ago view
  • "trout's one of the best, and at this point should probably win over donaldson (and should have more MVPs in the past, too), but the defensive aspect of valuing WAR still needs more tweaking...imo."

    that's from my 1st post. there's no suck involved in that. maybe with a few less posts about bullshit that point would have jumped out more.

    crunch 3 hours 27 min ago view
  • crunch - you do know that, taking defense out of the equation, Trout has led the AL in wRC+ each of those years, right?

    And, if you want to complain about position adjustment (which would be serious #crunchsplaining), he's been in the top 3 in the AL in WC (not park/league/position adjusted). And the only players ahead of him (if there were any players ahead of him) in any of those years have been DHs or 1B that play lousy defense.

    But sure - Trout sucks (or at least isn't as good as WAR says). Because it factors in defense and position.

    big_lowitzki 4 hours 31 min ago view
  • early tim tebow stuff rolling in...

    ran a 6.7 60yd (above average)...shagging flies in RF and showed off a rather impressive arm a few times, but average-at best on most of his throws...hit a few over the fence (both fields), fouled or weak contact a few...he's got a touch of power

    it'll be interesting to see who bites on this project, if anyone. he probably projected himself out of RF and into LF/1st because of his arm, but unless he can make that power work on a steady basis it'll be hard for him to play himself up anyone's system.

    crunch 5 hours 17 min ago view
  • LHP Clayton Richard (released by the Cubs earlier this month) is pitching very well as a starting pitcher for the San Diego Padres and could be a good candidate to get traded to a contender looking for a veteran SP before tomorrow night's post-season roster eligibility deadline.

    Because they released him, the Cubs are paying most of Richard's 2016 salary (the Cubs are on the hooks for $2M, minus the pro-rated portion of the MLB minimum salary that is paid by the Padres).

    Arizona Phil 7 hours 4 min ago view
  • it is honestly awesome (for real) that anyone would even have a strong opinion on AZL playoffs. i guess if you invest enough time watching it, you want to see a fair/just playoff structure.

    plus, the kids deserve it.

    crunch 7 hours 4 min ago view
  • The AZL team with the best record over the course of the full 2016 AZL season and the only AZL team to play .600 ball (the AZL Dodgers) did not qualify for the AZL playoffs, and the AZL East Division team with the best record over the course of the full season (the AZL Athletics) did not qualify for the AZL playoffs, either. 

    That's because of the ridiculous "split season" schedule most of the minor leagues now play, a stupid system that rewards mediocrity at the expense of the worthy. 

    Arizona Phil 7 hours 11 min ago view
  • Despite good movement on his fastball, I think location kept him from getting Ks. Left some pitches up and away that got hammered up and away. Then of course Travis Wood gave up the 2-run double in the 7th, but both runs counted against Arrieta.

    Charlie 7 hours 47 min ago view
  • "i'm gonna make you my main squeeze one day, bro. save the date."

    This level of discourse is #charming.

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 7 hours 48 min ago view
  • I would be having this discussion with anyone who (a) blathered on ad nauseum about the topic. (See, "Olt, Mike, not given an opportunity") or (b) responded directly to what I posted (which you did).

    Have a nice day.

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 7 hours 51 min ago view
  • what would you do without me? aside from having your posting content here cut by 75%+?

    i'm gonna make you my main squeeze one day, bro. save the date.

    crunch 7 hours 54 min ago view
  • In this instance, yes, I care more about the result of this big thing that isn't really a big thing.

    #crunchsplaining

    #willlistentojeffsullivanmorethanyou

    #blessyourheart

    #hitler

    #tcrmartyr

    #billyhamiltonwar

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 7 hours 54 min ago view
  • Two things:

    Fangraphs WAR #s include baserunning and Hamilton is elite at that. He leads in SBs with the 54 and and has an 87% rate which is really good. I'm sure once he gets on base he's able to take the extra base quite often too. Both those things will up his overall WAR value.

    The differences between BR and FG WAR is pretty well documented online and thus If there are discrepancies it's fairly easy to figure out why. It's fairly well accepted that BR WAR is fine as a snapshot but FG is better at predicting future value.

    johann 7 hours 59 min ago view