The Scrap Heap is Our Roster Depth?
We still must not have any pitching prospects that are ready to be promoted. Jay Jackson, who's dog did you kick or what the hell happened to you in 2011? As recently as last January, Fangraphs had JJax ranked as the Cubs #5 prospect.
Cubs Insider reports:
The Cubs have agreed to terms with RHP Manny Corpas and RHP Andy Sonnanstine on non-guaranteed split contracts for the 2012 season.
We've had some time to discuss the many corpses that are being wheeled into the catacombs of Wrigley Field of late. The newest name added to that group is Andy Sonnanstine.
Sonnanstine 28, was non-tendered by the Rays in December after posting an ugly 5.55 ERA and 12/12 K/BB ratio over 35 2/3 innings at the major-league level this past season. The soft tossing right hander will serve as insurance for the bullpen and starting rotation.
I'll dig deeper, after the jump...
Until 2009, Sonnanstine was known as a crafty righty and back end of the rotation guy with the Rays. Something happened to the Rays rotation during that season or were they just upgrading their mediocre talent with better pitching prospects? In 2008, Sonnanstine had a strong season, pitching 193 innings over 32 starts and went 13-9 with an ERA 0f 4.38 and a WHIP of 1.29. Was that smoke and mirrors? Nowadays, the Rays seem to have a never ending pipeline of high end pitching talent that has been bumping guys like Sonnenstine to the sidelines. Names like Jeremy Hellickson, Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis and Matt Moore made the decision to unload Sonnanstine this offseason an easy one for Tampa's GM Andrew Friedman. I don't see any track record for Sonnanstine having what I'd call success out of the bullpen either.
per MLB Trade Rumors...
He's made 80 starts and 52 relief appearances during his five seasons with Tampa, though his career strikeout (5.7 K/9) and walk (2.3 BB/9) rates are identical in the two roles. Sonnanstine is a fly ball pitcher and is very homer prone (career 1.3 HR/9), though his ERA is a full run lower when coming out of the bullpen (5.43 vs. 4.40)
He was non-tendered the same day as former Cub, Koyie Hill.
Here's how Sonnanstine originally got Wally Pipped:
On August 19, 2010, Sonnnastine was placed on the 15-day disabled list with a strained left hamstring. Jeremy Hellickson was called up to make his MLB debut that day against the Twins.
I don't know whether 2010-11 was injury plagued for Sonnanstine or that he was just a washed up pitcher. In 2011, he only pitched 35 innings with 4 starts, an ERA of 5.26 and a WHIP of 1.45. His current baseball reference.com comps evoked Brandon's Duckworth and Backe. I think the Cubs saw a version of this act in 2011 in a younger and very hittable Casey Coleman. In Sonnanstine's final start for Tampa on June 4th, here was an article from after that game:
Sonnanstine has allowed homers in each of his last five appearances and Tampa Bay is 0-4 in games he has started. It was the 5th time in his career he's allowed at least 3 homers in a game. He allowed 11 total HR's in 2010 and has given up 10 already this season.
"By the end of the day I have to throw strikes. I've always been a guy that can make in-game adjustments but tonight that wasn't the case," Sonnanstine said.
After that outing, Sonnanstine had 3 more relief outings in June he was sent to triple-A Durham. Ironically, former Cub prospect Brandon Guyer was called up to replace him.
Manager Joe Maddon said Sonnanstine was sent down because “it’s really been difficult to get him usage.”
Subsequently, Sonnanstine didn't distinguish himself in Durham. He had 9 starts, a 3-6 record in 56 IP there with an ERA of 4.82 and a WHIP of 1.41. He resurfaced from triple-A with the September callups and his only work was on Sept 20th against the Yankees with a lonesome shutout inning with 2 hits and 2 K's.
Didn't the Cubs see the mirror image (as in lefty version) of that act last season on May 20th in Boston?
Doug Davis made his second start in a Cubs' uniform and could not complete four innings of work. Davis pitched from behind in the count for a majority of his outing. The veteran southpaw surrendered seven runs on eight hits with three walks and three strikeouts. Davis threw 89 pitches in 3 2/3 innings, 47 for strikes.
I guess Jedstein must have fond memories of Sonnanstine craftily beating the Redsox in 2008. On September 10th, Sonnanstine pitched 7 innnings of one unearned run ball with no walks and 7 K's. That game was won by Tampa on a 14th inning 3 run HR by Carlos Pena.
Later, in the 2008 ALCS playoffs, Sonnanstine beat the Redsox again to put the Rays within one game of the pennant. Again at Fenway, Sonnanstine held the Bosox to 3 runs in 7 1/3 IP (helped by another Carlos Pena HR) in a 13-4 win. Some managerial quotes from that post-game on Sonnanstine's effort:
from Terry Francona...
Sonnanstine "has a lot of deception in his delivery, but what he does really well -- there's a lot of movement in that delivery, and he keeps it intact," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. "He throws a ball or two and starts to get out of whack, he gathers himself, stays over the rubber, and he's obviously very confident against us right now. You can tell he feels good about himself, as he should."
from Joe Maddon...
[He] really threw strikes," Maddon said. "I always pay attention to the radar gun readings with him. He was a lot of 87, 89 [mph], which was really good. Actually a lot of 88s and 89s.
"When he's pitching at that velocity, there's a bigger disparity between that and his offspeed stuff, and that's when he does really well."
I have fond memories of Jon Lieber and Mark DeRosa in 2008 too but that doesn't mean they should be back in Chicago for 2012. Is Sonnanstine more likely to be rotation depth for Iowa than a long man in the Cub bullpen? Could it mean he's the 2012 version of Rodrigo Lopez or Ramon Ortiz? Those are two names I was hoping not to hear in any form during 2012. I recall the Jim Hendry quote after the Lopez acquisiton, "we've been scouring (the minors) for a guy like him (Rodrigo) with veteran experience."
I'm thinking that the Cubs version of the Carmine software program that now guides the Cubs braintrust must have a virus. Now here's a notion, Cubbery meets Moneyball.
FYI: Here's a good link explaining the differences in pitching WAR between Fangraphs and Basebell Reference.
ERA is just FIP with defense and luck. That being said if Hendricks gets his ERA under 2.00, he may have a legit shot.
That all being said I was looking at Fangraphs WAR and I should have been looking at Basebell Reference WAR because more voters use that. My bad and happy to admit my mistake unlike some people around here that shall not be named (just kidding CRUNCH, CRUNCH, CRUNCH!)
Yes. That is something up with which we will not put.
Right, then. Moving forward lets focus on simple declarative sentences, subject-verb agreement, and watch out for punctuation. Avoid prepositions at the end of sentences.
I love sabremetrics and think FIP and WAR can definitely predict future success. For the Cy though which is an award for current success I do think ERA and WHIP have a place. Also while Hendricks doesn't have the strikeouts he does have the highest soft hit contact and second lowest hard hit contact which does a lot to take fielding skill out of it.
To me if the ERA is close FIP and WAR should be used but right now its not. That said I agree with you Hendricks won't get it.
Can't get soft just because we have a big lead!
kershaw will be lucky to put in 160+ip. even though it projects to be an awesome 160+ip it's going to be extremely difficult for him to do much with that. he's still got minor league rehab game(s) to go through and he's only stretched out to 2ip with his last simulated rehab...it may take another couple weeks before he returns.
the numbers are awesome, but he's lost the equivalent of a good chunk of a top-tier pen arm's season in innings of work compared to the rest of the lot.
Kershaw, Fernandez and Syndergaard are your current leaders and all will be pitching meaningful games down the stretch that could make or break them. Hendricks will not be and his saber-numbers aren't anywhere close to those 3 and he'd split votes with Arrieta and Lester whom all are basically neck-and-neck for WAR and FIP. If Kershaw pitches like just okay Kershaw in September he deserves to win in a landslide. Voters are pretty much saber-inclined now so it would take a crazy shutout streak or something for Hendricks to jump in the picture.
AZ PHIL: With starters the likes of Edwin Jackson, even Chris Rusin or Michael Bowden could look good on their staff. At best, he is a #5-6. But as always, LH are at a premium.
Sure we would all want consistency. He is not even 24, has played 5 (!) positions this year. Can you imagine what is in his head? He was only a part-time player at 2 spots last year. And THEN think about hitting?? Cut him some slack...You sure are picky lately. First wishing #6 NL RBI guy Russell have a better average, and now an "unncessarily fancy pick". Geez tough crowd!
it's going to be hard to take down scherzer.
kershaw is supposedly coming back soon, though he'll probably need a good amount of deep innings to match up with scherzer...probably too late at this point. tanner roark, bumgarner, and hendricks are probably going to steal some votes along with kershaw.
I absolutely love Javy's game, and I love the way Maddon changed the perception of him as a ballplayer, but I really wish he would just make the routine plays routinely. On the ground ball in the 9th, he made an unnecessarily fancy pick. He made the play, but tried the same thing last night and made an error.
How many wins does Kyle need for serious Cy Young consideration? Would 17 be enough if he leads the league in ERA? My goodness, what a season -- makes a Dartmouth alum proud.
hendricks WHIP drops to 0.98 over 159 innings after throwing 7ip 3h 1bb 4k, 0r/er
ERA down to 2.09 on the season.
I am pretty well fed up with the majority of home plate umps. Just terrible inconsistencies.