Marlon Byrd for John Lannan Opportunity Exists

So John Lannan lost his arbitration case to the Nationals and wil be paid $5M for next season (as opposed to $5.7M he was asking). Now that the money is settled, the Nats are trying to move Lannan for a position player, preferably a center fielder, so that they can sign Edwin Jackson instead. I'm not quite sure why they want to make that swap, but that seems to be the goal for them. If the Cubs cared to add another mediocre pitcher with 2 years of club control while moving Marlon Byrd and the one year left on his contract, while saving about $1.5M, it appears a match could be made.

I certainly don't see the Cubs doing it, not much difference between Paul Maholm and Lannan and it seems that the pitching depth problem has been more than solved. And if you're a fan of FIP, Lannan's numbers are worse than what he's actually put up. But on some level it could make some sense, especially if the Cubs are afraid they won't have a taker in 2 months for Byrd. And they do have Reed Johnson, Tony Campana, Brett Jackson, David DeJesus and possibly Yoenis Cespedes that can step up in center field if Byrd is moved.

Speaking of arbitration, Matt Garza's case is heard tomorrow. Once that's settled, I wouldn't be surprised for the rumor mongering to start up again, once teams are certain of his cost.

Comments

I'd do it in a second if I were the Cubs. Randy Wells can start the year in Iowa and we can save on a little bit of service time.

Also makes it much easier to deal Dempster mid season. Especially since Lannon won't be on the market as a Dempster alternative.

Dempster, Garza, Volstad, Maholm, Lannan rotation?

with Wells and Wood in the bullpen or in Iowa

makes a little sense, not a ton though...Lannan's been more lucky than good, big risk that he's just terrible and can't move him.

Meh, worst-case scenario you're out $5M and Byrd. Probably worth a gamble. Best case scenario he's markedly improved and you have him in 2013. And if he blows in 2012, he can be traded or non-tendered.

part of worst case also is you're wasting a spot that Wood or Wells could be pitching in, thus reducing their potential trade value or value to team.

not like Cubs have an open spot for Lannan right now.

anyway, think there's good arguments on both sides, see if Cubs are even interested. Keeping Byrd around for 2-3 months isn't terrible as you don't really want to start Jackson's service time if you don't have too and have him eligible to be a Super Two.

Both guys have minor league options left. So even worst case you are still going to save some service time on each guy.

Randy Wells is a 3.016 right now. So if you keep him in Iowa for 17 days you get to keep him through 2016.

Travis Wood is at 1.039 right now. So 40 days in Iowa will keep him under club control thru 2018.

Byrd has no future with the club at this point either way. He's window dressing on a 100 loss team this year.

I thought it was a 120-loss team.

Before we decided not to trade Garza and signed Maholm. Either way it's a facking disaster in Wrigleyville this year.

I'm a bit more worried about Jackson's service time than Wells or Wood to be honest.

As I said, wouldn't hate it if they did it, but per usual, there's a good arguments for it not happening.

I'd say Jackson stays in Iowa until his super two time expires. At least on this team.

Might as well let Campana and Reed Johnson share CF until BJax shows he is ready.

JMHO

I hear that Campana put on "10 lbs of muscle" at Camp Colvin Bussy (now named after trainer Tim Buss) this winter.

maybe the ball will land past 2nd base this year...

Fwiw, rotoworld blurb saying Lannan has one option left.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 2:21pm — Dr. aaron b

Both guys have minor league options left. So even worst case you are still going to save some service time on each guy.

Randy Wells is a 3.016 right now. So if you keep him in Iowa for 17 days you get to keep him through 2016.

Travis Wood is at 1.039 right now. So 40 days in Iowa will keep him under club control thru 2018.

Byrd has no future with the club at this point either way. He's window dressing on a 100 loss team this year.

=============================

DR AARON B: Right now Randy Wells is under club control only through the 2014 season. To be under club control through the 2015 season, he would have to lose those 16 days over three seasons (3+016) he has now, plus at least one more day.

To get there in 2012, Wells would have to spend at least 28 days (not 17 days) on Optional Assignment to the minors.

Here's why:

If a player spends 19 or fewer days on Optional Assignment in a given season, he gets credit for a full year of MLB Service Time. (A "full season" of MLB Service Time is 172 days, but the MLB regular season actually is 183 days).

So if Wells is optioned to the minors for a total of 19 days or less in 2012 he gets credit for a full season MLB Service Time.

If he spends more than 19 days on Optional Assignmentf he cannot get credit for a full season, but the first 11 days on Optional Assignment don't count because of the difference betwen the MLB regular season (183 days) and what constitutes a full season of MLB Service Time (172 days).

Only AFTER the first 11 days can you start to count the 17 days needed.

So that's why it's 28 days.

Likewise with Travis Wood.

To get an extra year of club control, T. Wood would need to spend at least 51 days on Optional Assignment in 2012, because the first 11 days don't count, and then he still needs 40 more.

BTW, if a player is optioned to the minors during Spring Training, time spent on Optional Assignment prior to MLB Opening Day does not count for anything, other than relieving the club of having to pay him at the MLB salary rate if he is injured prior to Opening Day (an injured player cannot be optioned to the minors).

Also, the following players have accrued less than five years of MLB Service Time through the 2011 season (so they cannot refuse an Optional Assignment to the minors) and have options remaining (so they can be optioned), but each must clear Optional Assignment Waivers before they can be optioned to the minors in 2012:

Blake DeWitt
Matt Garza
Andy Sonnanstine
Ian Stewart
Chris Volstad
Randy Wells

(Bryan LaHair, Marcos Mateo, Jeff Samardzija, and Geovany Soto have each accrued less than five years of MLB Service Time through the 2011 season, too, but they have no minor league options left, and Lendy Castillo cannot be optioned to the minors because he is a Rule 5 player).

Optional Assignment Waivers are revocable (so the waiver request can be rescinded if the player is claimed) and are required to option any player who made his debut on an MLB 25-man roster (MLB Active List) at least three or more years previous, or two or more years previous if the player spent one full season on Optional Assignment prior to making his debut on a 25-man roster, or one year or more previous if the player spent at least two full seasons on Optional Assignment to the minors prior to making his debut on an MLB 25-man roster.

Sometimes you will see a club DFA a player during the MLB regular season and then option him to the minors a few days later. That's because Optional Assignment Waivers must be secured before he can be optioned, and it takes two days to get a player through waivers.

Optional Assignment Waivers can be requested anytime February 16th through August 31st, and once secured, the waivers are generally good for the entire waiver period (but only through August 31st for the waiver period that starts on August 1st), so the club does not have to keep securing waivers if they want to move the player back & forth to the minors more than one time during the course of that waiver period.

Normally a player who is Designated for Assignment (DFA) must be either traded, released, or outrighted, but DURING THE MLB REGULAR SEASON a player can be Designated for Assignment (which temporarily takes him off both the 25-man and 40-man roster) and then can be optioned to the minors as long as the assignment is made within 10 days, and as long as the player was not replaced on the club's 40-man roster by another player while on the Designated List (DFA). Then once the waivers are secured, the player can be optioned to the minors, and the player is returned to the club's MLB 40-man roster at that time. (And players do accrue MLB Service Time while on the Designated List).

Optional Assignment Waivers (like Trade Assignment Waivers) are revocable the first time they are requested in a given waiver period, but they become irrevocable if the player is placed on Optional Assignment Waivers again during that waiver period.

Seriously, has Theo called you about a job yet??

I love these reads!

Good stuff Phil. Thanks for the enlightenment.

Heyman tweets E. Jackson does have agreement with Nationals saying he was seen in airport to take physical.

https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/16514...

allegedly 1 year deal with Nats, I believe it will push down Cubs pick for Pena and their 2nd round pick down 1.

So #6, #43, #55, #65 at the moment with D. Lee and Ibanez still out there. I believe both rank higher than Pena but lower than Ramirez, so if they do sign they'd lose up to 2 more spots on the Pena's supplemental pick and the 2nd round pick.

1/$10M for Edwin Jackson.

Mistake for Jackson. He'll be up against Hamels, Cain, Greinke, Marcum, Sanchez, and a bunch of other guys next offseason.

Does this help or hurt Garza's case?

nothing to do with it...

he'll be compared only to other pitchers in their third year of arbitration

Really you are only allowed to compare a player to players with similar service time?

yes, you certainly aren't going to make your case using free agents as a comp. And to further complicate it, players that signed multi-year extensions within their arbitration years (Hamels, Cain, Nolasco for example) are usually not part of the discussion.

I thought we were getting Prado for Byrd?

I have no idea why the Braves would make that trade once they got Michael Bourne.

Cubs not named at the top spot but get dishonorable mention for 2B, 3B and 1B.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/02/02/...

Actually, I would put a different spin on that article. Only one Cub, Stewart, is mentioned. It looks like they consider him the second worst at third, based on where the Cubs appear in the dishonorable list. Ex-Cubs Theriot and Fontenot are mentioned prominently.

The mighty Red Sox get two dishonorables, for shortstop and RF.

Actually, I would put a different spin on that article. Only one Cub, Stewart, is mentioned.

still 3, no matter what voodoo magic you care to put on it.

First base: Orioles – Chris Davis, Wilson Betemit
Dishonorable mention: Indians, Pirates, Athletics, Brewers, Cubs
Two of these teams are going to upgrade to Derrek Lee and Casey Kotchman, taking them off the list. I imagine the Indians will be one of them, leaving LaPorta out of a job.

Second base: Mets - Daniel Murphy, Justin Turner, Ronny Cedeno
Dishonorable mentions: Orioles, Tigers, Cardinals, Cubs

Third base: Dodgers – Juan Uribe, Jerry Hairston Jr., Adam Kennedy
Uribe kicked off a three-year, $21 million contract by hitting .204/.264/.293 in 270 at-bats for the Dodgers last season. He can’t be that bad again, but he still gets a worst offensive projection than Ian Stewart
Dishonorable mention: Cubs, Pirates, Twins, Rockies, Mariners

Gary Hughes takes job with Red Sox.

"Gary Hughes takes job with Red Sox."

This makes me laugh.

I hope that counts as compensation for Theo...

Indians sign Kotchman for 1/3M

Canzler will be a corner super-sub if he makes the team.

for those that enjoyed their pirated MLB.tv, 16 went away today.

http://www.deadline.com/2012/02/feds-seize-16...

I'm sure there are still other offerings out there.

Does anyone have a list of the ones taken down? I can't access www.stream2watch.me but can't find anywhere saying it was taken down and there's no fed message.

304 domains were seized, 16 of which allegedly streamed video

http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2012/02/spor...

at the bottom of article is pdf with all the sites, stream2watch isn't on there, but this task force has been taking down sites since June according to the article.

another article had the list

firstrow.tv, xonesports.tv, firstrowsports.tv, firstrowsports.net, firstrowsports.com, hq-streams.tv, robplay.tv, soccertvlive.net, sports95.net, sports95.com, sports95.org, sportswwe.net, sportswwe.tv, sportswwe.com, youwwe.net and youwwe.com.

But ICE isn't going to be able to shut down streaming sites in Europe.

Firstrow is up and operating there as firstrowsports.eu . And stream2watch uses Montenegro for its domain (.me).

another group shutdown MegaUpload, don't think that was in the US, was it?

I could be wrong.

anyway, I try not to engage in the piracy and encourage others not to, but to each their own as well.

it was overseas with US involvement. a lot of that going down lately. they had servers in the US, but a lot of their work and a chunk of other servers were in Australlia/Asia.

for all the ron paul "sky is falling types" all over the place the US still has a lot of pull and influence.

a lot of those types of sites aren't legit...megaupload was not legit...it invested heavily in making itself look legit, but it wasn't run legit. inner-office culture took down the organization more-so than a grand conspiracy, imo. the people supposed to delete stuff when they found it shouldn't have been sending emails back/forth about what stuff was where and downloading it, themselves. a bunch of other similar sites shuttered afterwards before any government spooks could get involved.

this administration is really trying to crack down on protecting US intellectual property. imo, they should be more concerned with corporate espionage, especially via China and India. whatever, though...the US entertainment industry is a world-wide money maker. people all over the world love our entertainment culture.

No, all of the megaupload related sites were registered in the US jurisdiction .com domain and that's how they were able to be seized by the US government and since we have an extradition treaty with New Zealand the main man got himself arrested on the FBI's request.

This is not likely to happen to sites which are registered in European domains.

http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2012/...

It's a little more nuanced than that.

about 95% of those sites/urls they seized were selling illegal merchandise as opposed to live streaming games.

indeed.

just a matter of time before they keep cracking down on the streaming sites and file share sites though. They'll never get all of them and for each one they take down, another one will pop up. But you send the message that you can be prosecuted and it will slow it down, even if just a bit.

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/i...

There are four pricing tiers for the section: $125 a ticket (silver), $150 (gold), $190 (platinum) and $250 (marquee). But as of now, fans can’t buy solo tickets. This is aimed solely at large groups, from bachelor parties to corporate outings.

Tickets can be purchased in blocks of 50, 100 or 150 and include food and drinks -- alcoholic and non-alcoholic. Each block of 50 contains 32 seats and 18 standing-room tickets. This is also where the Cubs are debuting a new 70-foot LED board that looks to some like a harbinger to a JumboTron.

Why the hell would anyone want 18 SRO seats?

blocks of 50, imagine people are mingling for the most part...

It's a party deck... They expect a lot of people to be standing. I could definitely see a party buying 50 tickets, and half of the people never sit down. Is kind of like a rooftop, where they let way more people in than they have seats for.

i think the rooftop is the exact model for this seating area.

i'm just glad they're keeping the wall/ivy intact and rather than bringing the scoreboard down to field level.

i'm a plant guy and it's always been awesome to me.

also,

http://i.imgur.com/Hw07a.jpg

Would literally need an act of congress to do anything with the ivy.

Cubs sign LHP Gerardo Concepcion

https://twitter.com/jorgeebro/status/16522164...

18 years old with a 88-90mph fastball, lefty...good tools to start...see you in 4-5 years, guy...maybe.

kinda funny, though...initial reports had him throwing 90-94mph, but once he worked out in front of teams with "legit" guns he was struggling to hit 90. go figure.

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  • kuhl is a righty, not a lefty.

    i think maddon might think kuhl is a lefty, too. i wonder what the reasoning is for baez leading off vs a rightie.

    crunch 6 min 19 sec ago view
  • "trout's one of the best, and at this point should probably win over donaldson (and should have more MVPs in the past, too), but the defensive aspect of valuing WAR still needs more tweaking...imo."

    that's from my 1st post. there's no suck involved in that. maybe with a few less posts about bullshit that point would have jumped out more.

    crunch 53 min 39 sec ago view
  • crunch - you do know that, taking defense out of the equation, Trout has led the AL in wRC+ each of those years, right?

    And, if you want to complain about position adjustment (which would be serious #crunchsplaining), he's been in the top 3 in the AL in WC (not park/league/position adjusted). And the only players ahead of him (if there were any players ahead of him) in any of those years have been DHs or 1B that play lousy defense.

    But sure - Trout sucks (or at least isn't as good as WAR says). Because it factors in defense and position.

    big_lowitzki 1 hour 58 min ago view
  • early tim tebow stuff rolling in...

    ran a 6.7 60yd (above average)...shagging flies in RF and showed off a rather impressive arm a few times, but average-at best on most of his throws...hit a few over the fence (both fields), fouled or weak contact a few...he's got a touch of power

    it'll be interesting to see who bites on this project, if anyone. he probably projected himself out of RF and into LF/1st because of his arm, but unless he can make that power work on a steady basis it'll be hard for him to play himself up anyone's system.

    crunch 2 hours 43 min ago view
  • LHP Clayton Richard (released by the Cubs earlier this month) is pitching very well as a starting pitcher for the San Diego Padres and could be a good candidate to get traded to a contender looking for a veteran SP before tomorrow night's post-season roster eligibility deadline.

    Because they released him, the Cubs are paying most of Richard's 2016 salary (the Cubs are on the hooks for $2M, minus the pro-rated portion of the MLB minimum salary that is paid by the Padres).

    Arizona Phil 4 hours 30 min ago view
  • it is honestly awesome (for real) that anyone would even have a strong opinion on AZL playoffs. i guess if you invest enough time watching it, you want to see a fair/just playoff structure.

    plus, the kids deserve it.

    crunch 4 hours 31 min ago view
  • The AZL team with the best record over the course of the full 2016 AZL season and the only AZL team to play .600 ball (the AZL Dodgers) did not qualify for the AZL playoffs, and the AZL East Division team with the best record over the course of the full season (the AZL Athletics) did not qualify for the AZL playoffs, either. 

    That's because of the ridiculous "split season" schedule most of the minor leagues now play, a stupid system that rewards mediocrity at the expense of the worthy. 

    Arizona Phil 4 hours 37 min ago view
  • Despite good movement on his fastball, I think location kept him from getting Ks. Left some pitches up and away that got hammered up and away. Then of course Travis Wood gave up the 2-run double in the 7th, but both runs counted against Arrieta.

    Charlie 5 hours 14 min ago view
  • "i'm gonna make you my main squeeze one day, bro. save the date."

    This level of discourse is #charming.

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 5 hours 14 min ago view
  • I would be having this discussion with anyone who (a) blathered on ad nauseum about the topic. (See, "Olt, Mike, not given an opportunity") or (b) responded directly to what I posted (which you did).

    Have a nice day.

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 5 hours 17 min ago view
  • what would you do without me? aside from having your posting content here cut by 75%+?

    i'm gonna make you my main squeeze one day, bro. save the date.

    crunch 5 hours 20 min ago view
  • In this instance, yes, I care more about the result of this big thing that isn't really a big thing.

    #crunchsplaining

    #willlistentojeffsullivanmorethanyou

    #blessyourheart

    #hitler

    #tcrmartyr

    #billyhamiltonwar

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 5 hours 21 min ago view
  • Two things:

    Fangraphs WAR #s include baserunning and Hamilton is elite at that. He leads in SBs with the 54 and and has an 87% rate which is really good. I'm sure once he gets on base he's able to take the extra base quite often too. Both those things will up his overall WAR value.

    The differences between BR and FG WAR is pretty well documented online and thus If there are discrepancies it's fairly easy to figure out why. It's fairly well accepted that BR WAR is fine as a snapshot but FG is better at predicting future value.

    johann 5 hours 25 min ago view
  • i have no doubt at all you quit reading at that point. you're very enamored with outcomes without caring what it takes to get there.

    the fact it's exploitable, especially without someone to cover the running game for him, as well it's evolution in how people are testing possible exploits is interesting to some people...to me...i'm some people...hurrah.

    some people want to check the boxscore to see who won, some want to know how it went down.

    crunch 5 hours 37 min ago view
  • I read it as him saying it's not really that much of a concern and that the one time it really cost Lester, vs. K.C., was an anomaly.

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 5 hours 43 min ago view
  • if jeff says it, it's cool...when i say it, it's straight from the mouth of hitler.

    aside from the lack of jeff touching on the insane leads runners take and lester's inability to throw if he's fielding, this is a lot of what i've said about the issue.

    exploitable, needs his own personal catcher to control his shortcomings, relies on his ability to get outs along with his personal catcher keeping runners in check before things become further exploited...

    crunch 5 hours 45 min ago view