A Chart of the Soler System

(This of course inspired by Rob's headline yesterday)
So, I don't know jack, do you?
The other day somebody said that Jorge Soler was gonna sign a contract with the Cubs, he just couldn't find his pen.
Now it's all kindsa teams trying to get close to Soler, apparently.
The Cubs, represented in the chart as the USS Enterprise, still seem to be the closest.
But the Yankee Evil Empire suddenly came on the screens, and not alot Captain James T. Epstein can do with his phasers against those guys.
And the Black Hole of Miami now opened it's hungry mouth. They've been sucking up everything, even Dark Star Z.
Billy Bean is riding some crazy comet, and swooped down to get Yoenis Cespedis. Today I read that Ces didn't get a no-trade so Billy's probably got something up his sleeve for some kind of future time warp.
Every time I read anything about the Philadelpia Red Planet, it's that their population is getting ancient, so getting Soler might make sense.
But given everything I've tried to guess so far, probably Soler is going someplace not on the map.
Houston or Minnesota.
Maybe to the White Sox to back up Kosuke Fukudome.

Ahhhh just kiddin'.
Like I said, I don't know jack.


Billy BeanE is the A' s Gm .
Billy Bean, I believe, landed on Uranus.

/too easy


Awesome Tim

This is all 4/27.5 Tim!


good look on potential draft pick comp for 2012

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 11:52am — Rob G.


good look on potential draft pick comp for 2012


ROB G: See if you can spot the error in the MLBTR post.

HINT: It's in the paragraph next to David Wright.

I skimmed as usual, was just looking for the names.

that being said, I don't see it.


"If Wright struggles to an extent in 2012 where the Mets determine he is not worth a $15MM net option price for 2013, would they be willing to risk $12.5MM for two potential draft picks?"...

Under the new CBA, compensation for losing a player who is offered a guaranteed contract with a salary equal to the average salary of the 125 highest-paid MLB players the previous season is one draft pick (not two).

BTW, the compensation draft pick is between the first and second round (like it would have been for a Type "B" player under the old system), but the signing team loses its 1st round draft pick (as if it had signed a Type "A" player under the old system), unless it's a Top 10 pick in the 1st round, in which case the signing team loses its 2nd round pick.

guess I misunderstood this...

C. A Club that signs a player subject to compensation will forfeit its first round
selection, unless it selects in the top 10, in which case it will forfeit its second-
highest selection in the draft.
D. The Player’s former Club will receive a selection at the end of the first round
beginning after the last regularly scheduled selection in the round. The former
Clubs will select based on reverse order of winning percentage from the prior
championship season.

so the pick the signing team loses just disappears?

there's the competitive balance lottery , but those are between the 1st and 2nd rounds and 2nd and 3rd rounds.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 1:41pm — Rob G.

so the pick the signing team loses just disappears?

there's the competitive balance lottery , but those are between the 1st and 2nd rounds and 2nd and 3rd rounds.


ROB G: That's correct.

The signing team loses its pick, but nobody gets it. There is just one fewer pick in the 1st (or 2nd) round.

Of course that would be offset by additional draft picks inserted into the 1st (or 2nd) round when a club gets a compensation pick for failing to sign its own 1st or 2nd round draft pick from the previous year's draft. BTW, a compensation pick is inserted one slot lower than where the team selected the unsigned pick the previous year (if a club fails to sign overall pick #11 from the 2012 draft, it gets overall pick #12 in the 2013 draft). NOTE: Compensation for failing to sign a 3rd round pick is a selection between the 3rd and 4th round in the next year's draft, and there is no compensation for failing to sign a player selected in the 4th (or lower) round.

But if the club fails to sign a compensation pick (a selection awarded for failing to sign a 1st, 2nd or 3rd round pick from the previous year's draft), it does not get another pick the next year for failing to sign the compensation pick. So "signability" considerations are very important when deciding who to select with this pick.

Not much has been discussed (yet) about the new competitive balance lottery draft picks. These picks can be traded, but the pick cannot be traded during the off-season, and the pick cannot be traded for cash unless the cash acquired is a financial adjustment made to offset the salary of one or more of the players involved in the trade.

It also has not been made clear how and when International signing bonus cap money can be traded (and how much of it can be traded to any one team at any one time).


Just playing.

Kind of.

Cmon Rob any 10 year old can figure this out.

~turns to Zeppo -"Run out and find me a ten year old."~

Well played!

On very few Cubs blogs can you get a Marx brothers movie/play reference.

it's better than the penn state joke i decided not to make

best change-ups of 2011

no Cubbies though


more pictures from spring training




organizational meetings begin today...

Cubs release Robinson Lopez, RHP they got from Braves for Derrek Lee according to a Goldstein tweet

That came from a Matt Eddy (Baseball America) tweet.

BA gets a direct transactions feed from ebis, but they don't have access to confidential ebis transmissions (waivers, directives, birthday greetings from Bud, etc).

not sure what you're going for there...

Matt Eddy @eddymk
Cubs release 20-year-old RHP Robinson Lopez, whom they acquired with 2 other players from Braves for Derrek Lee in Aug ’10

10:31 AM - 15 Feb 12 via web · Details

Kevin Goldstein @Kevin_Goldstein
The Cubs have released RHP Robinson Lopez, who was seen as a nice prospect when he came from Atlanta in the Derrek Lee deal.

9:53 AM - 15 Feb 12 via TweetDeck · Details

Apparently Goldstein (or more-likely Baseball Prospectus) gets the ebis transactions feed, too.

Isn't this Blake DeWitt decision day?

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 12:14pm — navigator

Isn't this Blake DeWitt decision day?


NAVI: Deadline is tomorrow.

Phil, when do they have to add Concepcion to the 40-man? Or is this not 'official'?

Also curious if you have any thoughts on the Jorge Soler 'signing'?

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 1:23pm — George Altman
Re: A Chart of the Soler System
Phil, when do they have to add Concepcion to the 40-man? Or is this not 'official'?

Also curious if you have any thoughts on the Jorge Soler 'signing'?


GEORGE A: The Cubs don't need to add Gerardo Concepcion to their 40-man roster until the contract is signed. Apparently they are still waiting for him to take a physical. So it's not official yet.

Because he has no previous MLB or minor league experience, the Cubs cannot wait 20 days to add him to their 40-man roster if he signs a major league contract (as would be the case if they were signing an MLB or minor league FA). While the Cubs have up to 20 days to file the contract with the MLB office, the player must be added to the MLB 40-man roster as soon as he signs the contract (again, presuming he signs a major league contract).

BTW, if Concepcion were to sign a minor league contract instead of a major league contract, the entire $7M must be paid upfront as a signing bonus and cannot be spread over multiple years. (Well, it could be spread over five years if he is a "two-sport" player, but there is no indication of that).

But if Concepcion signs a major league contract, the $7M can be spread over the length of the contract (as was the case with Jeff Samardzija).

As for Jorge Soler, the Cubs have to be careful to follow the rules. If they don't, the contract could be rejected by the MLB Commissioner and/or the Cubs might have to pay a hefty fine.

Thanks, Phil...........will you be doing your Top 15 list this year?

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 2:10pm — George Altman

Thanks, Phil...........will you be doing your Top 15 list this year?


GEORGE A: I know I prepared one (off-line) at the conclusion of the AFL, but I must not have posted it.

Okay so WTF??

Anyone care to guess what the fuck happened on Monday? Was it Soler's agent blasting the shopping spree into the stratosphere by leaking a false signing? Or was it some crap the The tribune screwed up - or a 'true' scoop that was ill-advisedly leaked for reals? This particular turn of events has an old school cub-moment smell to it??

cubs probably threw a number out there at Soler, someone leaked it or made it more than just talking.

I'm sure Jedstein are as pissed as anyone.

I hope they haven't f'd this up with Soler. When all this talk of the top 3 Cubans began this fall, this is the one guy I was hoping Theo could land.

The only thing to fuck it up is someone throwing more money at them.

Well exactly. As the old saying goes - look for the person with the most to gain - OR - follow the money. Either way, a leak in this situation can only benefit Soler/his agent. It definitely screws the Cubs.

that's why people don't like dealing with barry praver. he's popular with latin clients, though...he's good at getting fringe guys good loot.

Z is one of his best known "high-end" clients.

btw...barry, theo, and jed rode to MIL together for the Nov. GM meetings. played...

Ramon Ortiz gets invite to camp...with the Giants

somewhere, far far away: a Bruce Levine source wipes a small speck of egg off chin.


Has compensation taken this long ever in beisbol history?
Can Bud hurt the Cubs to help the Brewers? What's going on??

fan graphs comes up with another good one...homegrown talent WAR production (total and average WAR) from 2002 by team. I assume higher average war equates with more star power development.

shows the Cubs at #27 (near the bottom, total WAR 19.3, ave WAR 0.92) with the most productive player in Sean Marshall.

This would be fun to look at in 5 and 10 yr blocks of time correlated with management/scouting director changes to see who deserves credit for major upswings/downswings.

Best: Boston Red Sox 100.3; 4.36

Worst: Chicago White Sox 11.9; 0.54
...........Seattle Mariners.....8.9;..0.45

If the Astros have only developed one stud player since the 2002 Draft (Hunter Pence), the Chicago Cubs have developed no one significant. They have been relatively successful at drafting and developing minor role players — Tony Campana, Rich Hill, Darwin Barney, Tyler Colvin, etc — but the homegrown talent is lacking star power. The best the Cubs have done is Sean Marshall, who found success as a dominant set-up man — which, while nice, has little overall value for creating a homegrown core to build around. Perhaps the 2005 Draft personifies the Cubs’ developmental success over the past decade. The 2005 Draft saw one Chicago Cub draftee make the big leagues (thus far), and that was left-handed reliever Donnie Veal, who pitched 16.1 innings for the Pirates in 2009 and compiled a 7.16 ERA. The system suffered yet another blow prior to the 2011 season, when they sent Chris Archer, Hak-Ju Lee, and company to Tampa Bay for Matt Garza.

The problem with this kind of analysis is that it only addresses the June amateur draft--at which the Cubs have obviously been miserable for the last decade and a half. But the story is a bit different when you look at international signings, the Cubs have been one of the more active teams there, and the results have been good over the same time period. On last year's team alone you had Zambrano, Marmol, Soto, Castro and I suppose you'd need to include Fukudome as well? Plus, Soriano, Pena and Ramirez were originally intl FA signings with other teams.

Z wouldn't have been eligible for this analysis. It's just 2002 draft and later.

Yeah, I guess Starlin Castro sucks pretty bad.

tweeting Nick Cafardo @nickcafardo 1hr ago
A Red Sox official indicated he expects comp decision on Theo Epstein "very soon."

Can't wait til this is over so I never again need to hear from this fucken tool Nick Cafardo, what a homer. No wonder Theo was anxious to get out of town.

Sad, I'm going to miss reading the algonquin round table discussions at MLBTR concerning the compensation; such claims include Castro, Rizzo and the 2012 #1 draft pick.

from this fucken tool Nick Cafardo
don't forget that Nick the Tool thinks this significant announcement will be for significant compensation even though he thinks Theo was a worthless jerk and really bolted for a lateral move compared to his significant boss, Lucchino who is a real President of Baseball Operations.

Jorge Soler worked out at the Blue Jays complex in Boca Chica yesterday. Next stop, Baltimore Orioles. No mention of working out for the Cubs......



MLBastian-- The Indians have worked out Cuban outfielder Jorge Soler several times at their DR academy, according to @hoynsie.

With so many teams showing interest, could the Soler contract match or exceed the A's deal with Cespedes?

Best pre-ST news I've heard so far -- Tony Campana has been working on his (abysmal) bunting. IF he could bunt, his OBP would be forty points higher and he'd be worth keeping around.

Best suggestion I've heard for Tony Campana's weak hitting --- fine him every time he hits a fly ball.

IF he could bunt, his OBP would be forty points higher

Where did you pull that from? 40 points is a helluva' lot of bunts.

depends on how many ABs he has...

Campana showed bunt almost every PA last year but he was so inept infields didn't take the bait and third basemen just played him at normal depth. He only had 3 Sac Hits.

I'm saying he could raise his OBP all the way up to .340 if he could bunt---it was .303 last year. e.g. A combination of 2 more sacrifice hits, 4 more bunts for hits, a walk instead of a strikeout bunting, and 2 hits past a pulled in infielder last year would have done the trick.

If you're wondering where the Cubs rank in the ESPN INSIDER super-flawed "future power rankings," they are 13th.

How far into the future will they be 13th? And, when we all reach that point in time, where will they rank on THOSE future power rankings?

Take that you stoopid Cafardo...our own Captain Wrongway sez:
Phil Rogers @ChiTribRogers

Selig has spent "a ton" of time studying Theo case. Decision likely by week's end.

You'd think he was adjudicating the Sandusky trial.

RIP Cub Killer Gary Carter

the final hit of his career, happened vs. Cubs...Harry and Steve calling it


Wow, that was cool.

Carter doubling over Dawson knocking in Larry Walker.

Called by Harry in one of his last games.

Lot going on there.


tony gwynn had his surgery yesterday. they had to take a nerve out resulting in temporary loss of motor control in the right side of his face. Though it's his 2nd surgery, the cancer is supposedly contained and not spreading.



Re: Hak Ju Lee
10-15 HR peak. Should hit for high averages, get on base, run, save 5-10 runs a year with the glove. What's not to like?

Re: Soler with Cubs
Definitely not ahead of Rizzo, but most likely ahead of Jackson on ceiling.

Re: Cespedes vs. Soler
I haven't seen either guy yet, but given what I've heard, and their listed ages, I'd rather roll the dice on Soler.

Re: McNutt
I wouldn't rule out starting, but he's got to get some consistency in that delivery first.

Pshaw. HJL isn't gonna hit 10 homers in the majors.

How old is he now? 20? 10 HRs in a career year seems possible. Ryan Theriot hit 7 in 2009. The number of HRs Lee hits is obviously not going to be a determining factor in his success at the majors. Defense, OBP, steals. He'll pop one over the fence by accident every once in a while.

Recent comments

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  • The Cub offense is in on the con.

    1-for-10 so far w/RISP.

    billybucks 2 min 41 sec ago view
  • swing and a miss.

    i'm gonna like...go stand over there. *points*

    crunch 3 min 20 sec ago view
  • This is all a long con by Arrieta to lull playoff opponents.

    Rob G. 7 min 3 sec ago view
  • the factual correction on your mistakes on your post that I barely bothered to read the first time because it had nothing to do with anything I wanted to talk about is indeed a sign of my degenerative brain condition. I appreciate the safety tip and will be looking into with extreme urgency now.

    Rob G. 29 min 47 sec ago view
  • it took you 4 posts to get to this?

    have you checked the batteries in your carbon monoxide detector?

    #droppingknowledge #savinglives

    crunch 54 min 24 sec ago view
  • Fwiw, Billy Hamilton's actual WAR numbers that relate to the ones that I posted for Mike Trout are:

    • 2014: 2.5
    • 2015: 1.0
    • 2016: 2.6

    But by all means #crunchsplain on the stupidity of WAR while exaggerating your points. I can't wait to read more.

    Rob G. 59 min 42 sec ago view
  • jacos 59 min 51 sec ago view
  • *stroking intensifies*

    crunch 1 hour 3 min ago view
  • #crunchsplaining

    Thanks for the awesome give and take today and for the 535 words you spilled filling in all the gaps that I woefully neglected. We're all a little wiser and better for it. I look forward to your play-by-play summary later in the comments.

    Rob G. 1 hour 9 min ago view
  • it was about a post comparing players based on WAR...and comparing WAR values of a CF to a slew of other players...a post that you made...and i made a comment...that talked about D weighting of WAR...and comparinging WAR values of a CF to a slew of other players...etc etc...

    hell, we didn't even get in deep. i didn't even involve UZR or FIP versions and their strengths/weaknesses...or position mandated "handicapping" in points...etc.

    let's not talk about that...cool, fine, awesome. context sucks. san dimas highschool football rules.


    crunch 1 hour 17 min ago view
  • Ha

    jacos 1 hour 33 min ago view
  • Thanks for shining a light on this very important topic and steering it away from the frivolity that was the awesomenes of Mike Trout, but moreso on the foolishness of WAR as a metric to judge the value of center fielders. We're all a little wiser now and your contributions are invaluable to this community and to America's pastime. God Bless!

    Rob G. 1 hour 55 min ago view
  • so...what's chan-yong lim up to these days?



    crunch 3 hours 20 min ago view
  • yes, those hamilton WAR numbers are very reasonable. i'm on your side now based on that biting commentary and reasoning of why he's a 3.5-ish WAR player over a 600 PA season.

    those numbers are obviously well deserved and worthy of no scrutiny...none at all. no issue.

    CF D is rarer than a jon lester pickoff at 2nd...totally irreplaceable...no way in hell there's good D, low/no-hitting CF's in anyone's system that could do what hamilton is doing. guys like this don't exist...you get like, 2-3 at any given time in history.

    crunch 3 hours 40 min ago view
  • Please do not discuss War here. I think the Cub Reporter should be politics free.

    But yes, whether you support War or Peace...Mike Trout is ridiculously consistent and good.

    blockhead25 5 hours 59 min ago view
  • ^^^#WARTruther

    Rob G. 6 hours 10 min ago view