Get Excited for Your 70 Win Cubs

The blog "Dodger Sims" ran a bunch of simulations using a variety of player projection forecasts. And what's the prediction for 2012?

to the tune of low to mid 70's win totals.

Baseball Prospectus and their PECOTA projections came up with something in the vicinity of 74-76 wins I believe and 4th place as well. We can probably argue over a win or two here, but at least heading into the season, it's clear the NL Central is the haves (Cardinals, Reds, Brewers) and the have-nots (Cubs, Pirates and Astros) with varying degrees of luck and injuries to determine the final order.

As much as I support Jedstein and what I think their plan is, it will make following the team in 2012 just about as fun as 2010 and 2011 were, which was just slightly above "not at all" for me.

***

Not much else to report in the land of Cubsville, players are slowly filtering into camp and you can catch some photos at "Boys of Spring". Jorge Soler to the Cubs report seemed to jump the gun considerably as now just about everyone but the Marlins seems interested. It'll just come down to how much is someone willing to pay and it very well may turn out that the $27.5M the Cubs reportedly are willing to offer will do the trick.

Finally, Hall of Fame catcher and Cubs killer Gary Carter(112 OPS+ for his career against Cubs and 41 HR's, second only to 45 HR's he hit against Phillies) passed away today from brain cancer. Here's a clip of the final hit of his career that just happened to be off the Cubs and Mike Morgan. Harry Caray and Steve Stone with the call.

Enjoy the holiday weekend....

Comments

Its not just Carpenter - its a PNTBL, too. We do not have another guy that throws 100mph. He's not a kid, but the arrow was pointing up on this guy as our future closer.

To the Red Sox, this is obviously Papplebon II to them.

Ugh.

Levine on Espn

Cubs BoSox settled themselves, no Bud involved
Larry Luchino got his way

Cubs have not sat w garzas agent yet
Theo does not want to give ntc, does not believe in them

kiss Garza goodbye

It probably took a little bit of time because of the lack of precedent. But it certainly wasn't because of any animosity.

"We were actually looking at the people involved on the emails last night and we're all really good friends. This process clearly didn't change that. There was no animosity. It was just a process that took a long time in part because we had a lot of things going on."

Even though the above quote is from Levine's blog. On the radio with Waddle/Silvy, BL implied that the reason it took so long was because Larry Lucchino was being bitter and vengeful and was hell bent on making Theo pay as much as he could extract for leaving the sinking ship based on last season's conclusion in Boston.

I recently read the book, 'Feeding the Monster' (http://sethmnookin.com/feeding-the-monster), which is the Redsox history leading to the Henry/Werner, (Lucchino) purchase through about the 2005 season. The relationship between Lucchino and Theo has been continually strained because Lucchino tends to be paranoid when the Boston press portrays any of his 'team' (Theo) making subtle comments which he continually interpreted as throwing him under the proverbial bus. Of course that was a two way street open to interpretation when Theo felt he didn't deserve flak.

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  • so far ryan williams (AAA) is the only system prospect on the "could be ready soon" horizon doing well...that said, he's not very exciting and he's assumed to be an end-rotation talent at best.

    paul blackburn is getting great early returns in AA, but he's getting surprisingly low K numbers doing it. he throws lot of low/sinking stuff with good control...also assumed to be an end-rotation guy, but he's got room to be better, especially given his control as base to build on.

    crunch 2 hours 4 min ago view
  • Speaking of pitching -- another ugly outing for Underwood at AA. Through 6 starts: 5.19 ERA, WHIP 1.69. Yikes!

    Man, do we need starting pitching depth. Our best hopes are still hanging with AZ Phil in Arizona. Very scary.

    billybucks 3 hours 2 min ago view
  • jeebus... that's terrible.

    Ryno 4 hours 3 min ago view
  • *clap* *clap* *clap*

    Brick 6 hours 4 min ago view
  • Thanks AZ. If you like him, I like him.

    Old and Blue 6 hours 58 min ago view
  • Awesome report, and good to see Beeler on his way back.

    I'm also very happy to hear about the bi-level bump for Daniel Lewis. In the Name of Theo, he was the Last of the Full-Season Cuts, and There Will Be Blood for those who unnecessarily slow his development. Sure, he might end up in independent ball pitching for Lincoln. But if everything breaks right, he may even have a shot at joining up with the Gangs of Chicago. I wouldn't bet My Left Foot on it, though.

    John Beasley 7 hours 25 min ago view
  • CHARLIE: The Cubs did the same thing with LHSP Eric Jokisch last month, and it has nothing to do with needing the player's 40-man roster slot. 

    The hope is that another MLB club will claim the player, so that you aren't on the hook for any termination pay (which you would be if you release him) AND you pick up $20,000 from the claiming team, all for a guy you don't want going forward anyway.  

    Arizona Phil 7 hours 28 min ago view
  • Moosetacos, I like it. All I can think of is a bearded lumberjack dude operating a Mexican style taco truck with a Canadian accent.

    Sonicwind75 8 hours 3 min ago view
  • How strange is this for May? Is it insignificant, or does it suggest some sort of trade might be in the works?

    Charlie 8 hours 9 min ago view
  • The Cubs have sent LHRP C. J. Riefenhauser outright to Iowa. 

    Cubs MLB 40-man roster now stands at 37 (three slots open). 

    Arizona Phil 8 hours 52 min ago view
  • yow...the a.gordon/m.moustakas collision now makes the schwarb collision look minor in scope.

    gordon broke his wrist, expected to miss 4+ weeks...and today moosetacos has been diagnosed with a torn ACL. fun times in KC.

    crunch 10 hours 25 min ago view
  • dodgers calling up julio urias for tommorow's game. neat.

    fernando-mania might have a new heir...dude is 19 (turns 20 in august) and he's got a legit argument for being MLB-ready.

    crunch 11 hours 16 min ago view
  • jacos 12 hours 36 min ago view
  • Happ was the #9 pick last year, and he moved from OF to 2B in the same offseason that Castro was traded.

    Gleyber also in the picture at second.

    VirginiaPhil 16 hours 5 min ago view
  • jacos 16 hours 24 min ago view
  • Co-sign

    Ryno 16 hours 25 min ago view