Cubs Prospect List-Mania 2012

Here we go again, a full rundown of all the Cubs' prospect lists fit to print. Click on the "Prospect Listmania" tag at the bottom of the post for previous years or you can always visit Wiklifield.

5-Star Prospects
1. Brett Jackson
4-Star Prospects
2. Javier Baez
3-Star Prospects
3. Welington Castillo
4. Dillon Maples
5. Matt Szczur
6. Josh Vitters
7. Jeimer Candelario
8. Trey McNutt
9. Marco Hernandez
2-Star Prospects
10. Junior Lake
11. Rafael Dolis

Nine More: Dan Vogelbach, Jae-Hoon Ha, Chris Carpenter, Tony Zych, Ryan Flaherty, D.J. LeMahieu, Zeke DeVoss, Reggie Golden, Marwin Gonzalez

What They Say: While there are plenty of future big-leaguers in the organization, most of the players who are going to turn things around are not here yet. 

In a tweet, Goldstein suggested that LHP Gerardo Concepcion would place 6th on the list.

Major League Rankings:  B. Jackson (44), Javier Baez (66), Anthony Rizzo (75)

1. Brett Jackson, OF
2. Javier Baez, SS
3. Matt Szczur, OF
4. Trey McNutt, RHP
5. Dillon Maples, RHP
6. Welington Castillo, C
7. Rafael Dolis, RHP
8. Junior Lake, SS
9. Josh Vitters, 3B/1B
10. Dan Vogelbach, 1B

What They Say: Epstein and Co. have their work cut out for them. The big league club has more bad contracts than young cornerstones and will need at least a year to rebuild, even with the Cubs' vast resources. Outfielder Brett Jackson is ready to play in the majors, but the system's other blue-chip prospects, Baez and outfielder Matt Szczur, are at least a couple of years away.

Major League Rankings: B. Jackson (32), A. Rizzo (47), J. Baez (61), M. Szczur (64)

Rankings are preliminary and could have changed in the book that Sickels publishes.

1. Brett Jackson (B+)
2. Anthony Rizzo (B+)
3. Javier Baez (B)
4. Matt Szczur (B-)
5. Trey McNutt (B-)
6. Dillon Maples (B-)
7. Dan Vogelbach (B-)
8. Junior Lake (C+)
9. Welington Castillo (C+)
10. Dae-Eun Rhee (C+)
11. Josh Vitters (C+)
12. Jeimer Candelerio (C+)
13. Marco Hernandez (C+)
14. Chris Carpenter (C+)
15. Rafael Dolis (C+)
16. Zach Cates (C+)
17. Ben Wells (C+)
18. Dave Sappelt (C+)
19. Ronald Torreyes (C+)
20. Reggie Golden (C+)
21. Gioskar Amaya (C+)
22. Tony Zych (C+)
23. Shawon Dunston Jr. (C+)
24. Aaron Kurcz (C+)

OTHERS: Jeffry Antigua, LHP; Dallas Beeler, RHP; Jeff Beliveau, LHP; Jeff Bianchi, INF; Lendy Castillo, RHP; Pin-Chieh Chen, OF; Zeke DeVoss, 2B; Jae-Hoon Ha, OF (a lot of people really like him but he looks like a tweener to me); Jay Jackson, RHP; Eric Jokisch, LHP; Austin Kirk, LHP (season collapsed after he threw the no-hitter);; Luis Liria, RHP; Kevin Rhoderick, RHP; Jose Rosario, RHP; Neftali Rosario, C; Hayden Simpson, RHP; Nick Struck, RHP; Yao-Ling Wang, RHP; Logan Watkins, 2B; Robert Whitenack, RHP.

What They Say: The weakness heading into the off-season was obvious: lack of impact talent close to the majors beyond Brett Jackson. Acquiring Rizzo helps with that. But there are very intriguing players at the lower levels who have the potential to develop considerably, particularly products of the solid Latin American and Asian programs. In this respect the Cubs remind me of the Indians system: there is a LOT of depth in C+ and "Grade C with upside" type prospects. Some of those guys will develop.

The biggest problem I see currently is lack of high-powered pitching. There is nobody here who looks like they can anchor a major league rotation with any certainty. That's not to say that there aren't live arms; there are quite a few, although most of them project better as relievers or back-end starters. There are a few candidates who can get beyond that, although they all have significant questions attached. McNutt had a bad year but could rebound, it is too soon to tell about Maples, and both Rhee and Cates could take big steps forward.

 Major League Rankings: Jackson (27), A. Rizzo (37), J. Baez (109)

Keith Law Top 10

1. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
2. Brett Jackson, OF
3. Javier Baez, SS
4. Trey McNutt, RHP
5. Zach Cates, RHP
6. Welington Castillo, C
7. Dillon Maples, RHP
8. Josh Vitters, 3B
9. Reggie Golden, OF
10. Matt Szczur, CF

Major League Rankings: A. Rizzo (39), B. Jackson (89), J. Baez (95)

Jonathan Mayo Top 20

1. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
2. Brett Jackson, OF
3. Javier Baez, SS
4. Matt Szczur, CF
5. Dillon Maples, RHP
6. Trey McNutt, RHP
7. Rafael Dolis, RHP
8. Robert Whitenack, RHP
9. Reggie Golden, OF
10. Junior Lake, SS
11. Josh Vitters, 3B
12. Ronald Torreyes, 2B
13. Ben Wells, RHP
14. Dan Vogelbach, 1B
15. Jeimer Candelario, 3B
16. Gioskar Amaya, SS/2B
17. Marco Hernandez, SS/2B
18. Dave Sappelt, OF
19. Pin-Chieh Chen, OF
20. Zach Cates, RHP

What They Say: (On Brett Jackson): It's hard to imagine a 20-20 player being undervalued, but because none of Jackson's individual tools grade out as plus, he might. He hit better after he was promoted to Triple-A in 2011, always a good sign. His strikeout rate concerns some, but he also draws walks and his power-speed combination should play just fine at the highest level. He can play all three outfield spots, something that should allow him to reach Chicago at some point in 2012.

Major League Rankings: B. Jackson (33), A. Rizzo (37), J. Baez (62)

1. Anthony Rizzo
2. Javier Baez
3. Brett Jackson
4. Matt Szczur
5. Dillon Maples
6. Jeimer Candelario
7. Josh Vitters
8. Dan Vogelbach
9. Pin-Chieh Chen
10. Tony Zych
11. Ben Wells
12. Trey McNutt
13. Ronald Torreyes
14. Marco Hernandez
15. Chris Carpenter

Unfortunately Arizona Phil didn't publish his top 15 list this year, at least not in a post that I can find. I thought I saw something in a comment earlier in the offseason but can't seem to locate it. So my always comical top 16 will have to stand for the official 2012 TCR prospect list this year (tilts head back and laughs maniacally). Obviously my list is based off what the experts call "performance scouting", mostly a look at the numbers, but I very much do take into account what I read from those "experts" (Arizona Phil included).  This following is for entertainment purposes only. If you're looking for some guidelines on the stats, you'd prefer a walk rate in the 9-10% range (with below 5% being in the "You're probably a waste of roster space" territory), your strikeouts in the 15-20% range (with over 25% being "Danger, Will Robinson territory"). As for BABIP, your results may vary, but know that very, very few major leaguers have maintained a .360 BABIP and most settle in the .300-.320 range.

1. Anthony Rizzo (age 22) - Jackson or Rizzo, Rizzo or Jackson? How to decide such importance as the top spot of a trivial prospect list? For me, Rizzo is a year younger and doesn't strike out an rate that scares the beejeesus out of me, so I give him the top spot. Plus I get to make Muppets jokes. Ultimately I trust McLeod and Hoyer over Wilken at this point and those guys passed over Jackson in the draft a few years back citing too much swing and miss in Jackson's game. Not that Rizzo doesn't have some warning signs, mainly that his best season came in the bandbox that is Tuscon and there's some worries his swing is a bit long that'll suppress some of those numbers in the majors.

Stat Line: .880 Career OPS, 9.7 BB%, 20.7K %, .342 BABIP

2. Brett Jackson (age 23) - Position scarcity would generally lead me to give Jackson the nod, but a K rate north of 27% last year between two stops and close to 30% in AAA makes me fear that all the walks in the world won't make up for .230 BA. It's just too tough to maintain a solid BABIP with that much swing and miss in his game and that means a suppressed BA possibly in the .220 to .240 range, which means a suppressed OBP and suppressed SLG. There's also a lot of the scouting folks that aren't particularly enamored with any of his tools, Mr. Solid I believe was the nickname thrown around. Hit tool is good, but a lot of strikeouts; speed is good, but in the 20-30 range at best; power is good, but talking 20 HR power; defense is okay, but might have to move to left, the arm just good enough for center but certainly not for right field. So that's the bad...we'll call it Drew Stubbs or Rob Deer. The good, maybe he maxes out on all his tools and can be more like Jim Edmonds or Grady Sizemore pre-knee injuries. Regardless, should be a good chance we'll see him and Rizzo up sometime this year.

Stat Line: .884 Career OPS, 13.2 BB% 23.9 K%, .373 BABIP

3. Javier Baez (age 19) - This is more about new prospect smell than anything, but right now his ceiling is a guy with wrists as fast as Gary Sheffield that can play shortstop. That's certainly exciting, but it'll be a lot less exciting when he moves to third or second base as just about everyone thinks he'll end up doing.

4. Dan Vogelbach (age 19) - Riddle me this? If Vogelbach is the son of a major leaguer known for hitting home runs, does he go higher in the draft? Certainly not many were scared off by Fielder's weight when he got picked in 2002, 7th overall, but that seemed to be the only fear about Vogelbach as no one seems to question his bat. Yeah, he has to get into shape and he has to improve his defense, but if he's mashing home runs with a good approach at the plate, folks will be quite forgiving quickly.

5. Dillon Maples (age 20) - Seems a little old for a high school prospect, but also seems like the only guy in the system currently that could be a top of the rotation starter. He'll have to work on that third pitch to get there.

6. Trey McNutt (age 22) - I'd love to just explain 2011 away because of injuries, but staying healthy is pretty much the 6th tool for me and McNutt certainly couldn't do it last year. And when he did pitch (possibly while hurt), all his numbers trended the wrong way including a K rate that went down from 10.2 to 6.2 and a WHIP that went from 1.117 to 1.614. 2011 may have been the fluke or was it 2010? I suppose we'll find out soon enough. I'd put him lower, but he still has the ceiling of a top of a rotation starter if everything breaks correctly and I'm not particularly enamored by the system past the top 3-4 spots.

7. Josh Vitters (age 22) - I'm giving up hope that Vitters will be a huge impact at the major league level, but not that he'll be in the majors and contrbute something. He's still been very young at the levels he's played and still has one of the nicest swings in the minors. He seems to have no problems hitting in the AFL against even better competition. Yes, he needs to learn to not swing at everything he can make contact with along with improving his defense (of which reports from last year are that he is indeed doing so), but I'm still holding on that he can be an average everyday player in the majors.

Stat Line: .758 Career OPS, 4.26 BB%, 14.77 K%, .301 BABIP

8. Matt Szczur (age 22) - With Szczur it comes down to what you believe he can do now that he's concentrating on baseball full-time. My fortune tellers license hasn't arrived yet, so I'm a bit skeptical, albeit hopeful as I am with most Cubs prospects. The guy obviously has some speed, although he's not really considered a burner. But that should translate into a solid defensive center fielder at least.  The good news with the bat is he puts the ball in play - A LOT - and coupled with his speed should help to keep the batting average up. The bad? Well he didn't really show the patience you want from a leadoff hitter, especially after his promotion to Daytona. And while Baseball America seems high on him (#64 overall prospect in baseball), the other prognosticators are way down on him and actually marvel at the hype he's being afforded. Keith Law specifically pointing out how much of he doesn't care for his slap hitting swing. He still has the ceiling of an average regular center fielder in my opinion, so I put him ahead of the 4th outfielder/bench types for now.

Stat Line: .781 Career OPS, 6.04 BB%, 10.7 K%, .326 BABIP

9. Welington Castillo (age 25) - Castillo's pretty much at the make or break point of his career considering his age and already two partial seasons in AAA. Whether he'll get that chance in Chicago will be the question. At his best, he'll be a regular catcher with some power and good defense. Defensive tools that he hasn't really manifested itself in his brief major league call-ups that seemed to be littered with passed balls and other mistakes. 

Stat Line: .781 Career OPS, 6.04 BB%, 10.7 K%, .326 BABIP

10. Jae-Hoon Ha (age 21): We're pretty much into second division starters at this point of my list with the bench being a real possibility for the rest of this crew. Ha, much like Szczur, puts the ball in play a lot, but walks even less. I don't think his speed is up to Szczur, which likely means he doesn't have the range of Szczur either. I know his AA manager said great things about his centerfield defense, but AA managers speaking on their own players are probably not the most objective of analysts. On the good side, if he doesn't stick in center field, it seems like he's more than suited for right field with a very good arm. He's also been very young for his leagues, so he has that going for him. Not enough walks, power or speed for me to get too excited at this point.

Stat Line: .716 Career OPS, 3.47 BB%, 12.7 K%, .305 BABIP

11. Ronald Torreyes (age 19): I want to be more excited about Torreyes, for he has put up big OPS numbers in 2 seasons, but those are rookie leagues and a half season and about a half season of A ball. It doesn't look like he walks much, but he certainly doesn't strike out much either. Not only is he a small guy, but he doesn't appear to have the frame that scouts think he'll grow much more into...I believe "wirey" is the term I read. His defense is considered excellent and the new crew must obviously see something interesting here, even if he's years away.

Stat Line: .935 Career OPS, 5.39 BB%, 5.39 K%, .375 BABIP

12. Junior Lake (age 22): Here are Junior Lake's BA/OPS numbers in chronological order at each stop in the minors since joining the Cubs in 2007. 274/745, 286/752, 248/642, 264/731, 315/815, 248/680. One of these is not like the others. He showed some increased speed on the bases with 38 SB's against just 6 CS's, although some of that is apparently credited to his mastery of the delayed steal. Maybe that will translate to the majors, but advanced scouting will probably put a damper on it.  On top of questionable strikezone judgement, terms such as clueless, no instinct and various other disparaging comments about his defense have been bandied about. There's almost no chance he'll stick at shortstop, very little that he can even handle third base which then moves him to the outfield, and well he doesn't hit like an outfielder even with an 80 rated arm. If there's encouraging news, he allegedly grew two more inches this offseason and will be just 22 this year in AA. To say the least, I'm skeptical he'll even make it as a utility player.

Stat Line: .716 Career OPS, 5.45 BB%, 23.8 K%, .341 BABIP

13. Rafael Dolis: (age 24) How bad are the Cubs pitching prospects? I'm down to sketchy set-up men on the prospect list. In this case, we have Dolis, possessor of a nasty mid 90's power sinker. A pitch some of you may remember was the claim to fame of Justin Berg, who had similar albeit slightly inferior minor league peripherals: (Berg's)1.495 WHIP, 9.1 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 4.3 BB/9, 5.6 SO/9. Regardless, a plus pitch is better than a lot of players can offer, so Dolis reluctantly makes my list.

Stat Line: 3.69 ERA, 1.405 WHIP, 8.1 H/9, 0.4 HR/9, 4.5 BB/9, 6.9 SO/9

14. Reggie Golden (age 20): After coming into camp out of shape last seasn, he didn't do much in Boise to improve his stock with a 242/332/420 slash line. Nonetheless, he's on the fringe of still being a starter in the majors and at least takes a walk, while also striking out a ton. Hardly a guy I'm high on, but he still has a lot of time to improve.

Stat Line: .756 Career OPS, 10.28 BB%, 26 K%, .325 BABIP

15. Matt Cerda (age 22): And we're down to guys whose ceiling is utility player in the majors. For Cerda, he puts the ball in play and obviously is willing to take a walk. So far he's played 3B, SS, 2B in the minors and I imagine a few more will be notched on his locker before his minor league career is done.

Stat Line: .729 Career OPS, 13.55 BB%, 13.88 K%, .312 BABIP

16. Jeff Beliveau (age 25): I needed a replacement for Austin Kirk, whom I had at #14 before the trade to the Boston Red Sox. Out of the bullpen arms and bottom of the rotation starters left in the system, he seems the most likely to have a semblance of a major league career. Feel the excitement.

Honorable Mention/Just Don't Have Enough Info on Them: Gerardo Concepcion, Ben Wells, Brooks Raley, Pin-Chieh Chen, Chris Rusin, Jeff Beliveau, Austin Kirk, Robert Whitenack, Tony Zych,  Zach Cates, Nick Struck, Marco Hernandez, Gioskar Amalaya, Jeimar Candelario, Zeke DeVoss, Dave Sappelt.

 There are a few players that I'm sure will end up rising once we know more about them such as Gioskar Amalaya and Jeimar Candelrio, I just don't personally know enough about them. The same could be said about some of last year's draftees that I did include, but the draft is far more widely written about than international signings, so I'm a little more comfortable on their ceilings. Overall, it's a 2-deep system in terms of players I really care about: Jackson & Rizzo. If the Cubs can add Jorge Soler to the stables, the Cubs start to have the makings of a decent farm system at least on the position player side of the equation. That in and of itself would be a rare feat for this Cubs organization, homegrown position player talent. On the mound, it's a system of backend of the rotation starters and not particularly exciting bullpen arms. Figuring the Cubs really don't have the trading chips to land an ace or two, delving into next year's free agent pool that could include the likes of Matt Cain, Cole Hamels and Zack Greinke could be in the cards. And if they bypass that route, you understand the desire to shore up the pitching depth this offseason. Good news about a farm system, is your one good draft and signing class from potentially drastically improving. And the guys that just helped put San Diego on top of most organizational talent lists are now running the Cubs.