Is Theo Epstein working a Marlon Byrd trade with Boston?

Of course that's an imagined conversation between Theo Epstein and Boston GM Ben Cherington, but...


Would this not make a ton of sense?
Jacoby Ellsbury, the Red Sox center fielder, did something bad to his shoulder when he slid hard into 2nd base during the Sox home opener.
A "subluxed" shoulder.
That doesn't mean "below luxury", it means he kind of dislocated it, and it means about 6-8 weeks on the DL.
The Sox have some expectations this year, and 6-8 weeks is a long time.
The Cubs, on the other hand, are lacking in expectations this year.
Although they are expected to make trades to lose the guys they can lose if it makes the team better for the future.
Cubs center fielder Marlon Byrd happens to be one of those guys.
It's too bad he picked this April to forget how to hit.
But we should pay attention, because Boston is looking. 

Comments

Love this one, Blue! Great stuff.

I think the "sublux" injury is pretty similar to what ARam did a few years. Looks like the injury is to Ellsbury's right shoulder, too, which is his front arm when he swings the bat. It shouldn't affect his throwing, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him having trouble reaching pitches on the outside corner and hitting stuff that he's out in front of--that can really strain that front shoulder. Might affect his power for a while, too.

nice...

I think the "sublux" injury is pretty similar to what ARam did a few years.
----
The injuries are similar from a rehab perspective and that both were glove side injuries (Ellsbury throws lefty). Some of the details are somewhat different, such as primary vs recurrent injury, subluxation vs dislocation.

ARam had a recurrent shoulder dislocation (May 2009) of his glove hand (left). He had dislocated the same shoulder earlier in his career in Pittsburgh (Aug 2000) and that was reported as a partial dislocation (see the TCR article linked at the bottom). Although that was an acute injury the "recurrent" part means the anterior capsule has already been injured (it usually does not heal back as tight after a dislocation) and to a certain extent remains stretched more than before the first injury.

On Friday, he (Ellsbury) injured his right shoulder trying to break up a double play.

"Subluxed" (or subluxation) is a partial dislocation and from what I can tell it's Ellsbury's first shoulder injury. A complete dislocation means the humerus or ball of the shoulder moves in front of the socket (glenoid) and out of the socket, often tearing the anterior capsule and ligaments (mainly the middle and inferior glenohumeral) that constrain it normally. Usually, it needs to be reduced or set (reports were that ARam's shoulder was reduced a few minutes afterward) although on occasion it can spontaneously reduce (more often in a recurrent situation than primary). A partial dislocation meant the humeral head didn't completely disengage the socket, so it didn't need to be reduced back in place. There was some discussion that ARam would get offseason shoulder repair to address the recurring dislocations but it never happened. ARam felt the shoulder wasn't feeling unstable after he rehabbed it. Often patients decide to repair recurrent instability after multiple dislocation or subluxation events and in ARam's case the dislocations were years apart. Ellsbury could get ongoing instability even with a subluxation event so surgical repair is still a possibility if it becomes a recurring problem. It is pretty uncommon to repair these acutely, particularly after a first time event.

I think ARam's defense got worse after the injury, possibly because he was more tentative when diving for balls but that's for another discussion. The injury didn't seem to ultimately affect his power at the plate all that much as he hit 25 HR's in 2010 and 26 HR's in 2011 (26 in 2007, 27 in 2008 before the injury).

http://www.thecubreporter.com/2009/05/09/that...

http://www.thecubreporter.com/2009/05/08/rami...

Thanks! Great info!

sounds fair to me.

Ephoy can put Marlon in the tanning bed for an hour before the trade. I heard something about the Red Sox looking to acquire fried Byrd and beer?

Red Sox lose to Tampa 1-0 today, Cody Ross (CF) strikes out looking at a 2-2 pitch with 2 runners on.

They could use some offense:

Marlon Byrd, oh wait...

Yeah, at this point, I doubt Cubs could even trade him to Baltimore for Bird from "The Wire."

CubbyBlue--

Brilliant. (Love Theo giving the "yak-yak-yak" fingers while Cherington rants.)

Just great.

think byrd switched batting shades during the stl series; that should do it...

Wellington Castillo, C, Cubs (Triple-A Iowa)
The Cubs are not a very good baseball team, but they're not expected to be. This is a team in the nascent period of what will be a long rebuilding process. While Cubs fans seem preoccupied with what first baseman Anthony Rizzo and outfielder Brett Jackson are doing at Triple-A (and both are doing well), don't forget about Castillo, especially since regular catcher Geovany Soto is one of the club's better trade chips when it comes to building for the future. With three hits in all three of his games over the weekend—and home runs in two of them—Castillo is doing his best to make the front office more comfortable in jump-starting that rebuild.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php...

Dejesus
Jackson
Castro
Soriano
Rizzo
Vitters/Stewart platoon
Barney
Castillo

Good-to-great AAA lineup. God-awful MLB lineup. :)

For 2012, yes........but preparing for 2013/2014, probably not.

nevermind... I'm removing my comment. Hooray for 2012-13.

The line up seems likely, except for Vitters sharing third base. In order for that to happen, Stewart needs to be really bad, and Vitters needs to show real power.

The rest is almost certain, other than Castillo replacing Soto, which will happen only if Soto hits well enough to be traded for something good.

stewart vs vitters is a higher-stakes/higher-return neifi vs macias =p

vitters is hitting in AAA, but his lack of power is boring...especially considering the I-Cubs have been facing some of the worst pitching in the f'n world lately (or there's a huge breakout of awesome with the cubs bats).

unless stewart really fails (.220 avg/10 hr area) he'll probably have to be paid more than the $2.4m he's making this year.

it also looks like the team is stuck with barney, for better or worse, for quite a while pending a trade.

the FA market is almost non-existent for 2nd/3rd in 2012...should be interesting.

I predict there will be no Byrd-Ellsbury deal. #easypredictions

Love the post, though, CubbieBlue. The yak yak hands were hilarious.

lol...the cardinals WS ring has a tiny "rally squirrel" on it.

http://media.zenfs.com/en/blogs/sptusmlbexper...

The Red Sox don't expect to add another outfielder to replace Jacoby Elllsbury, who is having the MRIs of his injured shoulder looked at by Dr. Lewis Yocum in Los Angeles.

Sox general manager Ben Cherington said that while the Sox always do their due diligence and have their radar up, he doesn't expect a team will trade a good center fielder this early in the season.

Translation: Marlon Byrd is not a good CF (because the Cubs would trade him in a heartbeat)

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/...

Ben Badler tweets...

Teams say they haven't received any word yet about Jorge Soler becoming a free agent. Legally cannot negotiate yet.

https://twitter.com/BenBadler/status/19195003...

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  • kuhl is a righty, not a lefty.

    i think maddon might think kuhl is a lefty, too. i wonder what the reasoning is for baez leading off vs a rightie.

    crunch 40 min 30 sec ago view
  • "trout's one of the best, and at this point should probably win over donaldson (and should have more MVPs in the past, too), but the defensive aspect of valuing WAR still needs more tweaking...imo."

    that's from my 1st post. there's no suck involved in that. maybe with a few less posts about bullshit that point would have jumped out more.

    crunch 1 hour 27 min ago view
  • crunch - you do know that, taking defense out of the equation, Trout has led the AL in wRC+ each of those years, right?

    And, if you want to complain about position adjustment (which would be serious #crunchsplaining), he's been in the top 3 in the AL in WC (not park/league/position adjusted). And the only players ahead of him (if there were any players ahead of him) in any of those years have been DHs or 1B that play lousy defense.

    But sure - Trout sucks (or at least isn't as good as WAR says). Because it factors in defense and position.

    big_lowitzki 2 hours 32 min ago view
  • early tim tebow stuff rolling in...

    ran a 6.7 60yd (above average)...shagging flies in RF and showed off a rather impressive arm a few times, but average-at best on most of his throws...hit a few over the fence (both fields), fouled or weak contact a few...he's got a touch of power

    it'll be interesting to see who bites on this project, if anyone. he probably projected himself out of RF and into LF/1st because of his arm, but unless he can make that power work on a steady basis it'll be hard for him to play himself up anyone's system.

    crunch 3 hours 17 min ago view
  • LHP Clayton Richard (released by the Cubs earlier this month) is pitching very well as a starting pitcher for the San Diego Padres and could be a good candidate to get traded to a contender looking for a veteran SP before tomorrow night's post-season roster eligibility deadline.

    Because they released him, the Cubs are paying most of Richard's 2016 salary (the Cubs are on the hooks for $2M, minus the pro-rated portion of the MLB minimum salary that is paid by the Padres).

    Arizona Phil 5 hours 4 min ago view
  • it is honestly awesome (for real) that anyone would even have a strong opinion on AZL playoffs. i guess if you invest enough time watching it, you want to see a fair/just playoff structure.

    plus, the kids deserve it.

    crunch 5 hours 5 min ago view
  • The AZL team with the best record over the course of the full 2016 AZL season and the only AZL team to play .600 ball (the AZL Dodgers) did not qualify for the AZL playoffs, and the AZL East Division team with the best record over the course of the full season (the AZL Athletics) did not qualify for the AZL playoffs, either. 

    That's because of the ridiculous "split season" schedule most of the minor leagues now play, a stupid system that rewards mediocrity at the expense of the worthy. 

    Arizona Phil 5 hours 12 min ago view
  • Despite good movement on his fastball, I think location kept him from getting Ks. Left some pitches up and away that got hammered up and away. Then of course Travis Wood gave up the 2-run double in the 7th, but both runs counted against Arrieta.

    Charlie 5 hours 48 min ago view
  • "i'm gonna make you my main squeeze one day, bro. save the date."

    This level of discourse is #charming.

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 5 hours 49 min ago view
  • I would be having this discussion with anyone who (a) blathered on ad nauseum about the topic. (See, "Olt, Mike, not given an opportunity") or (b) responded directly to what I posted (which you did).

    Have a nice day.

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 5 hours 51 min ago view
  • what would you do without me? aside from having your posting content here cut by 75%+?

    i'm gonna make you my main squeeze one day, bro. save the date.

    crunch 5 hours 55 min ago view
  • In this instance, yes, I care more about the result of this big thing that isn't really a big thing.

    #crunchsplaining

    #willlistentojeffsullivanmorethanyou

    #blessyourheart

    #hitler

    #tcrmartyr

    #billyhamiltonwar

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 5 hours 55 min ago view
  • Two things:

    Fangraphs WAR #s include baserunning and Hamilton is elite at that. He leads in SBs with the 54 and and has an 87% rate which is really good. I'm sure once he gets on base he's able to take the extra base quite often too. Both those things will up his overall WAR value.

    The differences between BR and FG WAR is pretty well documented online and thus If there are discrepancies it's fairly easy to figure out why. It's fairly well accepted that BR WAR is fine as a snapshot but FG is better at predicting future value.

    johann 5 hours 59 min ago view
  • i have no doubt at all you quit reading at that point. you're very enamored with outcomes without caring what it takes to get there.

    the fact it's exploitable, especially without someone to cover the running game for him, as well it's evolution in how people are testing possible exploits is interesting to some people...to me...i'm some people...hurrah.

    some people want to check the boxscore to see who won, some want to know how it went down.

    crunch 6 hours 12 min ago view
  • I read it as him saying it's not really that much of a concern and that the one time it really cost Lester, vs. K.C., was an anomaly.

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 6 hours 17 min ago view
  • if jeff says it, it's cool...when i say it, it's straight from the mouth of hitler.

    aside from the lack of jeff touching on the insane leads runners take and lester's inability to throw if he's fielding, this is a lot of what i've said about the issue.

    exploitable, needs his own personal catcher to control his shortcomings, relies on his ability to get outs along with his personal catcher keeping runners in check before things become further exploited...

    crunch 6 hours 19 min ago view