Warming Up the Hot Stove
The entire TCR staff is still in mourning, what can we say, we take this shit personally. A relatively decent rumor though has gone through the wires as we start prepping for the most inconsequential regular season ever for the Cubs - the 2009 season. Because even if the Cubs are fielding an All-Star at every position, win 120 games and outscore their opponents by five runs a game, none of that shit will matter to anyone until they win some playoff games and get to the World Series.
As for the rumor, the Padres are suffering some money problems as one of their owners is in the middle of divorce proceedings that may cause him to sell his 49% stake in the club. The Padres debunked that rumor...sort of, but nonetheless San Diego is a pretty small market and are coming off a 99-loss season with not a whole lot of talent to build upon. They did have quite a few injuries last year, but not enough to warrant that bad a season.
If they do go the rebuild process, they're best trading chip would be their ace pitcher Jake Peavy and he is available for the right price. It doesn't sound like the Padres have to move him like the Twins did with Johan Santana this last offseason. Santana was going to be a pending free agent after 2008 while Peavy signed an extension last offseason that wil pay him, $11 M in 2009, $15 M in 2010, $16 M in 2011, $17 M in 2012 and a $22 M team option with a $4 M buyout in 2013. The tricky part is Peavy has a no-trade clause so he basically gets his say on where he gets to go.
Good news is that if you have dreams of Peavy wearing a Cubs uniform next season, his agent Barry Axelrod said that Peavy has a strong desire to stay in the National League and even went on mention specifically the cities of Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles and St. Louis. I don't doubt that any of those teams could make a legitimate run at Peavy although I'm quite sure the Padres will avoid the Los Angeles Dodgers if at all possible.
But do the Cubs have what it takes to land Peavy? Well, that sure is the million dollar question. The other question is if his elbow problems from last year are a cause for concern and at least one armchair pitching coach believes it will be. That's one for the doctors and trainers to discuss, or if you're the Cubs one for them to completely ignore and carry on like everything will be just fine.
The cost for Johan Santana last year was four pretty decent prospects from the Mets system, but the Twins were backed up against the proverbial rock and a hard place last season so it sounded like they took a lesser deal. I think four prospects is a pretty good barometer although the quality of them might have to be a little higher than the Mets gave up with Peavy already under contract.
If I had to formulate a guess on the type of players it might take to get Peavy in a Cubs uniform I would guess something along the lines of - Rich Hill, Felix Pie, Jose Ceda and one of Jeff Samardzija, Geovany Soto or Carlos Marmol. Now Samardzija has a no-trade clause and I doubt that the Soto or Marmol would be available, but if you're the Padres I think those are the quality of players they would want. Hill could do wonders in that ballpark with his flyball tendencies and the Padres have always had an affection for Felix Pie. But both now are on the "damaged goods" side of the equation and that's going to lower they're value. Ceda would be a gift for that Todd Walker trade that brought him here and then if you're the Padres and trading Jake Peavy, I think you need to at least get one ready for the majors now with 4-5 years of club control player and that's why I mentioned Samardzija, Soto or Marmol. I doubt they'd get moved and maybe there's another Cubs in the system that could get it done, but as I said, I think that's the type of players the Padres would ask for, even if not those individual names.
And if the Cubs do start talking with the Padres, I hope they do a little inquiry on one Adrian Gonzalez. I do doubt that he's getting moved as he's signed to a very affordable deal over the next few years. From Cot's Contracts....
07:$0.5M, 08:$0.75M, 09:$3M, 10:$4.75M, 11:$5.5M club option (no buyout)
Nonetheless, he's the left-handed power stick that the Cubs middle of the order could desperately use. He's also two years younger and been just as good as the uber-free agent of the offseason, Mark Teixeira. You scoff at that I'm sure, but their WARP-3 numbers (Wins Above Replacement Player and factors in defense) courtesy of Baseball Prospectus.
Mark Teixeira since 2005: 9.2, 7.7, 7.8, 10.8
Adrian Gonzalez: .2, 7.5, 8.8, 8.6
Of course, that means the Cubs would have to move Derrek Lee somewhere and with a no-trade clause, a huge salary and declining skills, that's going to be a tough task.
Back to Peavy, if the Cubs could somehow swing a deal you have a possible rotation that could look like this:
Jake Peavy, Carlos Zambrano, Rich Harden, Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis
I would of course assume the acquisition of Peavy would mean that Dempster doesn't get resigned and trust me, I'm fine with that. I suppose it's possible that the Cubs could actually move Rich Harden in a deal with the Padres and resign Dempster, but I doubt that. And with us just at the cusp of the hot stove league and before organizational meetings have even happened, it's a bit foolish to start projecting the 2009 Cubs roster. Nonetheless, a few embers from the hot stove to keep us all warm at night.
La Stella (3B) batting fifth. Could be the La Stella game.
[Drafts plans for CTSteve idol.]
Pitcher batting 9th. Bryant in left, Schwarber in right.
i'm not ready for it to end.
i'm not ready for "well, they weren't supposed to make it this year..."
i'm not ready to talk about the off-season yet.
I can relate to that, E-Man. I don't think I'll enjoy watching a high-stakes away game like this on TV. I've watched a lot of games this season after they ended or at least after the Cubs got out to a decent lead. Since they usually win, I've gotten to see a lot of baseball.
But in this case I think we should probably all watch the game live, and not let the pressure exceed the pleasure.
Remember, as I told my wife when our kids went off to college -- this is a good thing! Enjoy it!
Fully agree -- can't prove it. But, the numbers are what they are, and a lot of his OF games have come in Aug & Sept, when he has been killing the ball otherwise. And, knowing how baseball players love routine, it seems logical that it could at least be a a factor.
Really, really, really hope I'm wrong on this.
Indeed! It has been absolute blast -- from getting swept by the Phillies to sweeping the Giants, I have always enjoyed being part of this group. Hope we have a lot more games to talk about this year.
Yes, cheers to me! I've noticed a fairly strong correlation between my tenure and Cubbie victories.
And thanks to Michael for our new diggs--and to y'all for sticking around!
CHEERS to CT Steve for keeping this alive in 2015. Who would have thought that the season would have been so successful to this point? Thank you CT STEVE!
I think I may be too nervous to watch the entire game. I will probably watch in bits and pieces - and constantly check MLB App. I will be like Blockhead: Nervous Nellie.
You can't prove the performance is because he played the OF. You just can't. Sorry.
BTW, Bryant hit .168 in July playing 3B exclusively.
oh man, early on it seems like he made at least 1 stupid baserunning blunder per game and almost every single one turned into a positive for the cubs. it was magical.
Not surprised about Lester but bit surprised about Hendricks. Guessing that if something happens to Arietta right away they go to Lester but if they've burned relievers and are in extra innings they go to Hendricks.
My kids' 8:30pm (ET) bed time will be waived tonight (They are Rizzo & Castro fans). We'll get geared up in our Cubs apparel and will watch this as a family. I am stoked. Go Cubs!
Bryant: Base running adventures.
Remember Bryant's home-away splits, too.
Wrigley: 21 HR, 59 RBI, .311/.408/.629
Road: 5 HR, 40 RBI, .243/.333/.360