You Can't Win If You Don't Play

UPDATE: The MLB Rule 4 Draft Competitive Balance Lottery has been postponed until Wednesday 7-18.


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The Rule 4 Competitive Balance and Forfeited Draft Pick lotteries will be held next Monday, and while it does not appear that any MLB club will be forfeiting a 1st round pick as the result of exceeding its Signing Bonus Pool by 5%+ (although it could  still happen), 12 MLB clubs will definitely be awarded Competitive Balance draft picks in next June's Rule 4 Draft (First-Year Player Draft).



At stake in the lottery are six draft picks between the 1st and 2nd rounds and six more between the 2nd and 3rd rounds.


The six Competitive Balance lottery picks between the 1st and 2nd rounds will be slotted immediately after any Article XX-B Compensation picks awarded to teams who lose an MLB Article XX-B free-agent post-2012 after extending a "Qualifying Offer" to the player.


NOTE: A "Qualifying Offer" is a one-year guaranteed contract with a salary at least equal to the average salary of the 125 highest MLB aalaries from the previous season. This is the mechanism negotiated in the new CBA that replaces clubs offering salary arbitration to Type "A" and Type "B" free-agents in order to receive compensatory draft pick(s) should the player sign with snother club. 


The six Competitive Balance lottery picks between the 2nd and 3rd rounds will be slotted immediately after the 30th pick of the 2nd round.


Only MLB clubs that are in the bottom ten smallest-markets and MLB clubs that receive revenue sharing are eligible to participate in the Competitive Balance Lottery, and no team can be awarded more than one Competitive Balance draft pick in a given season. 


Competitive Balance draft picks can be traded beginning next Tuesday (the day after the lottery) up through the last day of the 2012 MLB regular season, and then again beginning on MLB Opening Day 2013 up until next June's Rule 4 Draft. (The draft picks cannot be traded during the off-season).


Also, a Competitive Balance draft pick can be traded only once (by the team to which it was awarded), so it can't be flipped to a third team later, and the pick cannot be sold for cash. If the pick is traded, it must be exchanged for a player or player(s).


There are 13 MLB clubs that qualify to participate in this year's Competitive Balance Lottery (most of the teams qualify because they both are a small market team and because they receive revenue sharng):


AZ, BAL, CIN, CLE, COL, KC, MIA, MIL, OAK, PIT, SD, STL, and TB.


Some of the teams that will be receiving Competitive Balance draft picks next Monday are contenders (one is even in 1st place in its division) and are expected to be "buyers" as the trade deadline nears, so don't be surprised if the Cardinals, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Orioles, Diamondbacks, and/or Indians trade their Competitive Balance draft pick before the July 31 trade deadline.


It could be that some of the teams looking to move assets (like the Cubs, for instance) are waiting for the Competitive Balance picks to be awarded before makng trades, since a Competitive Balance draft pick (especially one between the 1st and 2nd rounds) could actually have more value to a seller than the prospects being made available by the buyer.


If it turns out there are any forfeited lottery draft picks as the result of a club or clubs exceeding its 2012 Rule 4 Signing Bonus Pool by more than 5%, all MLB clubs will be eligible to participate in the lottery to receive the forfeited pick, except for those clubs that exeeded their assigned SBP (as the Cubs did when they signed 1st round pick Albert Almora).  


The Competitive Balance lottery will be weighted in favor of those clubs that finished with the worst records in the 2011 season, and the Forfeited Draft Pick lottery is weighted in favor of teams receiving revenue sharing.

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Comments

As always Phil-thanks for educating us about things many of us didn't know.

Friday is the deadline for signing players selected in last month's First-Year Player Draft (Rule 4 Draft) as wells as the deadline for signing players who were eligible for selection in the draft but were not drafted (NDFA).

The Cubs have signed their top 18 picks, plus nine more players selected in rounds 21-40, and three Non-Drafted Free-Agents (NDFA).

Any bonus amount in excess of $100,000 given to a player selected below Round 10 or to a Rule 4 eligible NDFA is deducted from the club's Rule 4 Signing Bonus Pool, so don't expect the Cubs to give more than $100,000 to any of their unsigned draft picks (should any more be signed).

Although the deadline for signing Rule 4 Draft picks is this Friday, there is an important exception to the rule.

Unsigned college seniors with no college eligibility left can be signed at any time up until one week prior to next year's draft, so Cubs 2012 29th round pick RHP Austin Pentecost (Lewis-Clark State) will remain on the Cubs Negotiation List (with the Cubs retaining exclusive negotiation rights to Pentecost) until that time.

Also, any college senior with no eligibility left who was not drafted in last month's draft can be signed as a NDFA up until one week prior to next year's draft.

Wonder when they will promote Tim Saunders. 500+ BA can't be all luck.

from the "i never cared in the first place" department:

AAA black hole of lost hope mike macdougal has been released...he's looking "done."

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  • dodgers calling up julio urias for tommorow's game. neat.

    fernando-mania might have a new heir...dude is 19 (turns 20 in august) and he's got a legit argument for being MLB-ready.

    crunch 2 min 31 sec ago view
  • jacos 1 hour 22 min ago view
  • Happ was the #9 pick last year, and he moved from OF to 2B in the same offseason that Castro was traded.

    Gleyber also in the picture at second.

    VirginiaPhil 4 hours 51 min ago view
  • jacos 5 hours 10 min ago view
  • Co-sign

    Ryno 5 hours 11 min ago view
  • Transmission 5 hours 20 min ago view
  • O&B: I think D. J. Wilson is a legit MLB prospect.

    He is a hyperactive dynamo on the field, a protypical lead-off hitter who is looking to get on base any way he can, a triple machine (if there is such a thing) when he does make solid contact, a daring baserunner who goes berserk once he is on base, and a CF who plays a "no fear" crash & burn style of defense.

    Guys like that sometimes get injured more-often than the average player, but if he can stay healthy and continue to progress, I believe he will be an MLB CF, or at worst a 4th OF. 

    Arizona Phil 5 hours 31 min ago view
  • The hot start was nice, but it won't always come easy. It's nice to see them have to work for it every once in a while.

    Ryno 7 hours 39 min ago view
  • Hey, AZ, are you as high on DJ Wilson as your pal John Arguello is?

    Old and Blue 7 hours 56 min ago view
  • Phil, I just wanted to say thank you for diligently tracking the Cubs prospects in extended spring training and sharing your knowledge with us. It's remarkable how you're able to keep box scores for multiple games at once. I, and I'm sure others here, appreciate the data and insight you provide for us.

    K Dub 10 hours 50 min ago view
  • Thanks PHIL.

    Boy, that is a nifty K:BB ratio Hudson has going at almost 4:1!

    I hope he continues improving.

    The E-Man 16 hours 47 min ago view
  • And of course the Bucs won again playing AZ (not PHIL). They dont seem to have a problem yet with the bottom feeders.

    They picked up 3 games this last week.

    I'm looking forward to them coming to the Chi.

    The E-Man 17 hours 15 min ago view
  • Don't mess with the SI jinx. Since the Javy/Cubs cover came out, he is 2-for-20 with no walks.

    billybucks 17 hours 25 min ago view
  • BRADSBEARD: If all three are assigned to Eugene, the Cubs can play Galindo, Paredes, and Paniagua at the same time by moving Paredes between SS-3B-DH, Galindo between 3B-1B-DH, and Paniagua between 1B-LF-DH. 

    The Cubs like to have their players (including their minor leaguers) learn to play more than one position even if they eventually are projected to settle at one spot, and I suspect that will be reflected at Eugene, with just about everybody who will be assigned there able to play at least two positions. 

    Arizona Phil 17 hours 46 min ago view
  • Thanks - at least the scorer was consistent

    Eric S 18 hours 24 sec ago view
  • I don't think the error call was completely out of the blue but the ball took a very bad hop and would have taken a very good play to get it. Same with one of the Stella throws where I think it could have easily been ruled a hit. Neither were cut and dry calls though imo.

    johann 18 hours 29 min ago view