Castro vs. Barney

Provided with no comment (click on the links if you're not familiar with the saber stats)

Darwin Barney (Age 26):

  • 268/309/389 .306 wOBA, 85 wRC+
  • 4.9 BB%, 9.5 K%
  • 31 XBH, 31 RBI, 48 R, 6/7 SB
  • 7.9 UZR, 2.0 WAR

Starlin Castro (Age 22):

  • 272/301/414 .303 wOBA, 83 wRC+
  • 3.9 BB%, 16 K%
  • 32 XBH, 52 RBI, 53 R, 17/27 SB
  • 7.1 UZR, 2.1 WAR

Comments

I'm assuming these are year 2012 numbers, not career stats. The old codger Rush fan in me keeps wanting to write 2112 whenever I refer to 2012. I really hate that.

Barney has turned into a better player than I ever thought he would be, actually. And Castro - I think his improving defense (I remember a really low UZR last year) may be impacting his hitting a bit from the standpoint of focus, but for all I know that theory is baloney. I doubt Castro really projects much higher than a .800 something OPS /15 homer guy, but that isn't too bad.

Jed rushed Castro into the bigs. Shoulda been seasoned one more year at Tacoma.

/ : 0

While I like Barney, I really hope people aren't starting to pass judgement on a 22 year old player who's shown clear indication he works to get better (defense).

Definitely. It's really hard to know how far Castro can go still. I think it's to be expected that he hits a bit of a bump. Hitting at that level is just such a hard thing to do and he started off like he had figured it out really early. But he's struggled some this year. That's okay, so did Josh Hamilton for a really long stretch.

Yeah. Let's not all jump on top of Castro during a slump. My biggest concern about his numbers this year is that his BB% is down instead of up. He'll be the Cub's number 2 hitter in his prime.

I am jumping on him, godamn it!

Its b/c of him we are not making the Playoffs this year!!

If only we had Neifi Perez to take his place. That would have saved the season.

"Neifi saved us, Dude"

Johnnie B. Baker, 2005

Ha!

Lame ass comment. You know damn well who to blame.

I blame Michael Barrett.

I'm not a regular poster here, but it cracks me up to see how many folks around these parts are on the bash a 22-year old wagon. The kid hasn't even filled out yet...
I see Castro sliding to 2B and making more of a Brandon Phillips comparison. In 2003, Phillips played 112 games at 22 yrs with a .981 FLD%... was out of the Bigs until 2006 when he posted a .977 with the Reds at 26 yrs, after the tribe gave up on him. Since '06 Phillips has averaged a 3.48 WAR. I'm not saying Castro is going to develop into a GG caliber SS/2B, but offensively he has a very similar in body type as phillips and an average projection of .300-22-85-20 would make him a pretty damn valuable 2B going forward, especially if Baez stays at SS.

While I have been on the Barney bandwagon (which has broken down on LaHair, apparently) since I saw him in the CWS, he seems to be a #8 batter. He is better than Theriot with more range, and unless HoyStein gets something in a package for real value, it seems like he is the kind of player Jed likes up the middle to save runs.

It is a great thing to have. As Goldstein says, "He's a baseball player who will play in the Big Leagues for ten years and deservedly so."

It's important to remember context when you quote as well. Goldstein said that while he isn't really a starter but more of a backup.

some Muskat tweet tidbits:

today is Rizzo's 23rd birthday

cub record thru 108 games is 2011 and 2012 is identical: 43-65

lineup... Jakkkkson sits, Soriano returns: DeJesus, Barney, Rizzo, Soriano, Castro, Castillo, Vitters, Mather (RF), Samardzija

My problem with Barney is that on a really good team you can aford to have a good field no hit 2B. However, on a crappy team you can't afford that luxury. Is it worth keeping him 2 - 3 years until we become good? My vote is no, get something for him while you still can. If he could only draw walks and get his ob% to .340 - .350 or so, he would be worth keeping.

I see this sentiment on Barney a lot from posters and talk shows all over, and I get it. Where it stops for me is -- Barney for who? Is the return worth 1 to 3 WAR value more than Barney? Would the Cubs be just trading a so-so MLB player for someone else's so-so player?

That's my take whenever the subject of trading Barney or Castro for Upton or, for that matter, almost any trade (except veterans/big contracts for prospects) at this point in TheJedi's 'rebuilding' project.

Fundamentally, I'd like to see Ricketts spend $60-70M on FA's this off-season for no other reason than he probably can. Perversely, I'd like to see him have to decide - better team? or better ballpark? However, what do the Cubs get back? More Crawfords, Lackeys, and Soriano's? Or worse than that - 4 to 5 year deals that when the 'waves' of MLB-ready prospects arrive, there's 4 to 5 pieces of dead weight soaking up $60M in payroll where $500K prospects could produce better.

I love adding FA's, but who? For how long? Playing where? Blocking who in 3 years?

Welcome to Miami!

This is my point. Why not have the best defensive 2B in the middle of our infield for a few years? As GA states, realistically, unless it is some kind of a nice package of players, who do you get back for Barney that makes it worthwhile?

Actually, on a crappy team, you CAN afford it. My feeling is that for a guy like Barney, most teams are content to wait for players like him to become available for dirt cheap.

Fontenaught is available. We need more scrappy.

shame he can't field 2nd/3rd worth a damn...his bat is decently bench-quality...but hell, you can get a washed up 1st/OF to outperform that kinda performance without the D.

people can still use UZR while keeping a straight face?

also, d.barney is nearing 100 games without an error.

I actually don't even really have the foggiest understanding of UZR. It reminds me a bit of QB ratings in football, which does have this empirical formula that I don't give a shit about in the slightest.

In Castro's case, it just so happens that his UZR sucked and now it doesn't, and my eyes also tell me that he has improved in the field.

6:35 (EST) start time for a mid-week game in SD?

okay, sure. also, after watching the "away" feed for what feels like a week i can finally watch some len/bob on wgn.

Happy Birthday Tony Four Sacks

dejesus is working hard to make the cubs pay him $1.5m to go away next season rather than paying the full $6.5m to keep him around.

i wouldn't complain seeing him next year if he at least picks up the hitting/ob% part of his game.

he's not fallen sharply yet, but his minimal power hasn't reappeared and he's in a cruddy 2nd half slump so far...

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 5:06pm — crunch

dejesus is working hard to make the cubs pay him $1.5m to go away next season rather than paying the full $6.5m to keep him around.

i wouldn't complain seeing him next year if he at least picks up the hitting/ob% part of his game.

he's not fallen sharply yet, but his minimal power hasn't reappeared and he's in a cruddy 2nd half slump so far...

=========================

CRUNCH: DeJesus signed a three-year $15M contract ($10M guaranteed) last off-season where he gets $4.25M (guaranteed) per season 2012-13 plus a third year club option ($6.5M or $1.5M buy-out) for 2014.

So unless he gets traded in the meantime, DeJesus will almost certainly be back in a Cub uniform in 2013.

forgot we were working with a 2/3, not a 1/2...i still think it's a good gamble, though i'd like to see more of the 30-double/10-homer guy he's shown himself to be in the past.

Umpire Bill Miller took a pitch directly to the mask on a fastball where the catcher was crossed up in the bottom of the first inning in Oakland. Later on, twice during the game he rang up a batter on strike two. During the bottom of the sixth, the second base umpire left the game, then came back suited up with the home plate equipment. When the second base umpire came back out with two outs, Miller handed him his baseballs without a word and left. I watched the bottom of the sixth on mlb tv archive, and it looked like the switchover was something the umpires discussed beforehand.

Did the home ump go to second?

If he left the game it might be a mild concussion. A fastball upside the head, or on the chin can surely cause one.

He left the game. The ball missed the catcher's glove and hit him at the bottom of the mask.

he's a good dude, pretty good evaluator imo...but didn't manage the big organizational picture. And for all I know, a lot of that blame could be the ownership in flux, he poured a lot of resources into the major league team, but should have been doing the same into the minor league system at that time (2007 time period of course). But who knows how much flexibility he had...

Ricketts seem to get it though and I know TheJedi do...be nice if I knew their timeframe because right now it seems like 2015 which is gonna piss off a lot of fans.

excerpt from Kevin Goldstein on the Brett Jackkkkson call up:

If Jackson can close some of the massive holes in his swing, he's a true five-tool player. He has above-average raw power and speed, and the ability to post a string of 20/20 seasons. That gives him excellent long-term potential. However, the "ifs" regarding his swing are gigantic ones. He has a good understanding of the strike zone and is not prone to chasing, but he's not a sound hitter. There isn't an obvious flaw in his swing, or a tendency to chase sliders or something like that, he's just not that good of a hitter. The hope is that he can display enough power, speed and defense to make up for a low batting average.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php...

Interesting thing about Jackson is that the sky is the limit. Well, not a Troutish sky, maybe, but it's high. Problem is that the opposite is also true. He could be a permanent member of the Mendoza club.

I'm getting my first looks at Jackson. Maybe Goldstein has seen him a lot, or maybe he is just improvising. But the Jackson I'm seeing is very "prone to chasing." I don't see much difference between Jackson right now and Colvin last year. On two strikes, they start hacking and don't stop till it's strike three.

Sveum said this yesterday: "We're learning a lot about him, and it's basically come down to swinging out of the strike zone. It's not like he's swinging through anything."

That's the opposite of what Goldstein is saying. A "massive hole" means you swing through pitches.

I don't want to get into name-calling, but if you can't figure out that pitchers at this level don't throw strikes if you don't force them to, then you didn't get into Berkeley on your SAT scores.

Jackson has always maintained a high ML On Base %.

Colvin didn't even walk in College.

Reports on Jackson in the minors have always been that he has a good command of the strike zone but that he swings through strikes a lot. Maybe Sveum has seen the opposite, but let's trust the larger sample size for now. And maybe Jackson is going through a phase (during his first MLB callup) where is chasing--doesn't mean that's what caused his K rate in his minor league career.

"Reports on Jackson in the minors have always been that he has a good command of the strike zone etc."

Professional scouts who write such reports--and also turn in hotel and fast-food receipts--do not file their reports on the internet. We may not have seen reliable reports on Jackson. Sveum has said a few times that he wanted to see the strikeout machine with his own eyes, because the numbers didn't make sense.

Sveum has pointed out that even in games where Jackson got a few extra-base hits, the outs would all be strikeouts.

It's odd for a player to either hit the ball hard or miss it completely. What happened to the popups and the easy grounders to second and short? The data sample, small though it is, shows Jackson "protecting the plate" or whatever it's called when you swing at everything on two strikes. That approach becomes untenable in the majors and also the high minors, where pitchers have learned how to make hitters look foolish.

As for Dr. Aaron's point about Jackson's career OBP versus Colvin's: that's a very good question and I don't have an immediate answer, but I suppose it would be possible to be a very patient hitter until you have two strikes, at which point you go into the panic mode that produces the large number of strikeouts. If the count goes to 3-1, then 3-2, maybe you don't panic, because you can smell a walk. You might get a lot of walks without actually working the count.

To me, working the count means getting from 0-2 or 1-2 to 3-2.

I think Brant Brown might end up being a good comp to Bjax. It's something I've largely thought all year.

Big kid with some speed and power. Can play CF. Tons of swing and miss in their games.

Brant was able to have a couple of good MLB years. He brought us a great pitcher in trade. Ultimately a bit of a letdown.

"Tons of swing and miss"

But did Brown have any swing-and-hit? Look at his age-23 and 24 seasons--in AA, for Pete's sake. 5 or 6 home runs, .390 SLG. Jackson: 20 HRs last year, 10 of them in AAA; 15 homers this year. Career SLG: .488.

Sometimes I feel sympathy for Cub fans who grew up in the Gary Scott era. In retrospect, I was pretty lucky in the '60s.

1987 was my first really coherent season as a fan.

I'm still waiting to have mine.

Nicely played!

+ a bunch

'87 was the middle of a long dormant period for me--far from Chicago, WGN cable not locally available, etc. Woke up briefly in '98 for Soto-McGuire, then for good about the time Dusty arrived.

Without looking it up, can't place Scott or Brown accurately in the 80's-90's.

Brant Brown came on the scene during the 98 season. He played a serviceable CF and flashed some power, and hit 290-ish. Looked like he might be a player.

We dealt him that offseason for Jon Lieber.

I thought he played LF? Isn't that where he dropped the famous milwaukee non-clinch flyball?

Perhaps can't place Soto in 90's-00's?

Got to love autocorrect.

it certainly would be out of the realm of possibility that a rookie was a bit overanxious in the majors in 3 games and may not be reflective of how he played in the minors.

Hey man, you can trust years of scouting or you can trust the few days of observation from the guy who's successfully leading the Cubs to a record just under .400. I'll trust the major league manager; it's what my gut tells me.

Recent comments

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  • 34-14...awww yeah.

    crunch 19 min 4 sec ago view
  • Good thing the Cubs have five left-handed batters in the lineup. Velasquez is just tearing thru the righties [edit - doesn't seem to faze Bryant!]

    Eric S 1 hour 39 min ago view
  • ben zobrist gets to ride up front tonight cause he's a good guy at sports.

    cubs with a 5 run lead and a lackey shutout through 3ip \m/

    crunch 2 hours 13 min ago view
  • HAGSAG: I have not seen Joe Nathan out on the field, but he is supposedly at the UAPC. 

    Arizona Phil 5 hours 10 min ago view
  • ERIC S: Best outing I've ever seen from Manny Rondon, and I've seen most of his outings since the Cubs got him from the Angels. 

    M. Rondon is competing with six others (Dylan Cease, Bryan Hudson, Jose Paulino, Pedro Silverio, Jesus Castillo, and Erling Moreno) for a starting slot at Eugene, and (as you can probably tell from the EXST box scores)  the competition has gotten fierce over the last couple of weeks, With the exception of Moreno, the Eugene SP candidates have upped their game lately, and M. Rondon's outing yesterday was especially impressive/dominating. 

    Arizona Phil 5 hours 12 min ago view
  • E-MAN: Pierce Johnsion was mixing a 92-94 MPH fastball with a plus-change-up AND curve, and he threw strike-after-strike-after-strike with all three of his pitches. I believe that was the best command and pitch-efficiency I've ever seen from Johnson, who often pitches from behind in the count and issues too many walks.  

    Of course now he has to avoid a recurrence of the lat strain (whch he has had previously in his career) as well as all of the other miscellaneous physical problems he's had over the last three years (hamstring, quad, back, etc).  

    Arizona Phil 5 hours 22 min ago view
  • PHIL: Any movement on P. Johnsons pitches? What was his "out" pitch? I know he was working on a 4th pitch, so wondering what he is looking like these days. Thanks.

    The E-Man 6 hours 5 min ago view
  • AZ Phil, has Nathan showed up in Mesa yet? Thanks.

    Hagsag 10 hours 50 min ago view
  • Eickhoff looks like a good young pitcher. Lets steal him!

    Hagsag 10 hours 51 min ago view
  • Manny Rondon faced 13 batters ... and got 10 to K. Not a bad day's work.

    Eric S 20 hours 32 min ago view
  • With several other Cubs hitters bailing out on curves today I think overall it wasn't being seen well. It for sure looked silly but a good breaking pitch coming at you and then breaking down isn't the easiest thing to see and has made many hitters look silly. Also Soler should have more walks this year but for quite a few called strikes that were actual balls and even the called strike he bailed on was borderline.

    johann 23 hours 30 min ago view
  • it's not like we're talking about a guy who's never had issues with pitch selection and seeing the ball over here. we're talking about a guy who has some rather legendary swing-and-misses at breaking stuff who's been exploited low. going forward it's worth paying attention to seeing if he can be exploited inside, too. he seriously bailed out of the box on a called strike. sure it was a good curve, but he obviously didn't see that well at all.

    crunch 23 hours 43 min ago view
  • It would seem like he is figuring it out now and it's really coming together. Really happy for him. Joe was really protecting him from the 3rd time through the order, but as you allude to, he is earning trust to go deeper.

    Wondering if has potential to become a #3 pitcher? His current stats certainly support it.

    The E-Man 23 hours 51 min ago view
  • That doesn't count b/c CRUNCH didn't see it on his 60" HDTV 5 times in replay.

    I have seen many players "bail out" when the ball looked like it was gonna hit them.

    Especially with the advent of the splitter and pitchers that can really get the ball to dance. Marmol, Sutter, Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, Derek Lowe, Smoltz, Arrietta...

    These guys have made the best bail out only for the ball to come over the plate and be called a strike.

    No shame in that. The same way players whiff hard enough to cause them to drill a hole in the ground from spinning.

    The E-Man 23 hours 57 min ago view
  • a 60" TV with slow-motion replay and multiple looks on that replay helps...a lot...

    it's one thing to shy away like he did the 2nd time, it's another to bail out of the box on a called strike. that happened in the 1st one he pulled away from. he misjudged that one by a foot or so...

    crunch 1 day 15 min ago view
  • Good Hendricks sure is fun to watch. He was hitting all his corners today and the Phillies couldn't do anything with his changeup.

    johann 1 day 51 min ago view