Barry Rozner Plays With the Hearts of Cubs Fans

The Padres called, the Cubs said they're interested, and it's a possibility.

According to a West Coast source, the Cubs are the
Padres' best option for a trade partner if for no other reason than
they're not the Dodgers, who are Peavy's first choice, and they're not
the Braves, who at this point are saying they won't deal their best
prospects.

That's the latest from Barry Rozner of The Daily Herald and I'd probably put a lot more stock into it if it was from Bruce Miles, but it should make the offseason rather interesting. Rozner doesn't believe the Cubs have the pitching prospects that the Padres are looking for, and if you consider Jeff Samardzija and Carlos Marmol as untouchable, I'd have to agree. He then goes batshit crazy by suggesting Sean Marshall and Felix Pie to the Padres and then dumping Jason Marquis and another prospect or two to a third team that would land the Padres the elite pitching prospect that they so crave.

While I agree that dumping the bulk of Jason Marquis' contract for next year would be crucial in trying to acquire Peavy and resigning Ryan Dempster, there will be no good player being exchanged for Jason Marquis and the near $10M he's owed.

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Internet Fan Vote...go Cubs fans.

Youklis won for the AL.

there seems to be something common between them.

The title of that article should be changed to:

"Cubs Fans No.1 in Internet Use"

Do you think it took longer to tell him he had won or to convince him that something called the Hank Aaron Award actually exists?

Dude, F Ryan Dempster. if we got Peavy we would have:

Peavy
Zambrano
Harden
Lilly

Good enough.

Save our money for MARK TEIXEIRA!!!!!

well, for whatever we all think, the only thing that matters is the Cubs like Dempster for his pitching as much as his clubhouse presence.

i totally get it. But it would be a lot on unnecessary money. he may give a real hometown discount but i think he'll get some really good offers. so, we'll see.

Even Z, Harden, Demptser, Lilly is pretty good

Anyone else thought of maybe including Harden as the main piece in a Peavy deal? The Pads pitching will take a major hitby dealing their ace, so Harden could help them there. His $7M would be a lot more affordable than Peavy's money.

From a Cub perspective it makes sense to resign Dempster and use Harden as a trade chip than to get Peavy otherwise and let Dempster go for nothing because we have too much $ invested in the rotation. Additionally, maybe you don't want Harden and Peavy on the same staff with their injury histories.

it was mentioned and talked about when the rumor first popped up...briefly in the post and in the comments as well.

http://thecubreporter.com/2008/10/15/warming-hot-s... 

He might be a trading chip, but I don't think it's something that would overwhelm the Padres. It looks like they're skipping next year completely and Harden is set to be a FA after 2009.

F that.

I'm dreaming big and

Peavy
Z
Harden
Lilly
whomever

Is the best rotation in baseball

peavy 09...it's the new b.roberts 08...sweet.

According to ESPN 1000 Sutcliffe interested in Cubs job.

Thanks, Sutcliffe. Job's not even open yet.

Macha may be the frontrunner:

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/33342319.html

The report did say if Brenly left.

I'm glad Sutcliffe is interested in a Cubs job but until Dempster goes elsewhere I just don't see an opening for the slow working and heavy sweating righty.

When I first heard this a few weeks ago, I was quite stoked. The more I think about Peavy on the Cubs, the more I question the wisdom.

- big money commitment for several years
- coughing up top prospects for the privilege
- not realistically being able to expect anything better than a SP with an ERA in the mid 3s, which is good but not elite
- another damn NTC and possibly demands for an extension
- losing the luxury of having one of my best fantasy keeper league pitchers leaving Petco

Once you consider all the factors, is he worth all the money? My vote comes down to, "Depends on the prospects we have to give."

Well, allow me to retort:

Although the Pads keep saying nothing's for sure, it seems pretty likely Peavy's gonna get traded, to the Dodgers if nothing else. So you're gonna lose the fantasy edge, I'm afraid.

I understand it's big money, a NTC, but this is Jake Peavy we're talking about. He had a down year last year, but he's entering his prime (okay, entered) and he's relatively cheap for what he could bring. A low-to-mid 3.00s ERA these days is Cy-Young-discussion-worthy.

And I don't know about you but I haven't seen any studs in our minor leagues in a while. Unless we're trading Soto, Marmol, and Ceda, this is a guy you sell the farm for.

That last point was meant as a joke(ish).

His career ERA outside of Petco is 3.85(ish). If that's what you get, is it worth all those years, all that money, a NTC and giving up young guys to boot? I'm not definitely saying it's NOT worth it, I'm just wondering if the name draw may cloud some judgment on what this guy is really worth.

If the Cubs acquire him without coughing up Marmol or Soto I figure I'll be OK with it, but I honestly don't expect he'd win a Cy pitching at Wrigley is all.

I'm not buying the idea that his era will balloon to well over 3.5 just because he'll be in a less pitcher friendly park.

His career era at Wrigley is 2.91. Granted it's only 6 starts but still.

Maybe he just likes to pitch at home more than on the road.

What Rozner doesn't say is that his "west coast source" is his brother in-law in Orange County, CA.

No, this is playing with hearts: http://www.fannation.com/truth_and_rumors/view/75593

A. Gonzales + Peavy to Cubs for what I'm assuming is everything in the entire universe. If this is possible who needs Teixeira?*

*i'm going with completely impossible unfounded rumor

that's just lifted from the even more retarded Phil Rogers article from a couple of days ago...

Yeah 3/44 and all that. Or should we go 4/100 for this offseason?

inflation isn't that bad...yet.

blah. i had a friend from florida up from thursday-sunday this past weekend for the PSU game, so I've been out of the loop

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/2008/10...

Piniella, 65, said he's watching this World Series, but his primary focus remains the Cubs, whom he has taken to the postseason in each of his first two seasons, only to get knocked out in the first round both times. While the Cubs had the National League's best record this season, their flaws - not enough lefthanded hitters, Alfonso Soriano's inconsistency out of the leadoff spot, shaky middle relief - all showed up in the playoffs. Piniella said the Cubs' main agenda these next few weeks will be to re-sign pending free agents Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood and explore trade options for lefthanded hitting and bullpen help. He also said he plans to move Kosuke Fukudome, the Cubs' $48 million Japanese import whose second-half slump exasperated the manager, to center field as part of a platoon with Reed Johnson.

"We don't know if the team is going to get sold this winter," Piniella said, "and I don't see us getting into any big spending in the free agent market. We need to get more athletic and younger and we're probably going to have to fill our needs through trades."

doesn't sound like the Cubs like much of the FA crop, does it?

how in the hell does one "move" k-fuk?

it seems pretty much impossible unless the team takes on some other team's payroll crap...and if the cubs are taking on someone's payroll crap what's to be done about RF and what payroll is gonna cover it? there's no RF in the system that's starter quality unless they want dero in RF.

i mean, it can be done...but the logistics of it seem like a nightmare. i couldn't imagine trying to "sell" k-fuk's 2 years left to anyone after looking so damn lost with his flunky swing on the inside and doing nothing much with the stuff over the outside.

...and when did lou clue into soriano not being a consistant leadoff hitter? buy the guy a pack of bubblegum cards.

there's nothing in there from Lou about moving Soriano down...

although I'm sure when they get somebody worthy of batting leadoff, it'll happen.

ah, that was the reporter musing.

oh well...as long as the #7/8 hitters are .300 hitters it shouldn't hurt too much.

it's nice to have a true power hitter in the #1 slot and it's a luxury you can have with 3-4 guys in the middle with 20+HR power (and doubles), but damn he's a hell of a power hitter who's best speed game took a back seat to his power hitting a few leg injuries ago.

soriano had 12 sb's over the last 61 games when he came back from his broken wrist and finally did look healed from his leg injuries.

that would be about 32 SB's over a full season...

if they get furcal or roberts, great, plus a new RFer...I'd love to see.

Furcal, Lee, Soriano, Ramirez, Hermida, Soto, DeRosa, Fukudome

the only guy on the roster currently who could belong there is Theriot and well I have my doubts on his continued success.

soriano is just a lot more timid and he doesn't take the leads he used to.

that said, theriot's lead shunk a ton, too, as the year went on.

coaching philosophy or personal...i dunno.

im not saying soriano isn't capable of 20-30sb, but i'm not really impressed by that compared to what he can do with his bat power. he'll still get a chance to steal...and some rbis to go with the doubles/homers.

-edit-

btw, soriano batting 1st really doesn't bug me that much, though it'd be one of the first changes i'd make on the team as-given on the crunch-is-in-charge-fantasy-planet-o-coolness. as long as there's 4 guys in the middle who can hit 20-30+ homers with some doubles i don't consider it a huge issue no matter how much i hate it.

he was talking about moving k-fuk to centerfield platoon with Reed . . . not trading him.

Just a poorly constructed sentence by the reporter.

that makes a lot more sense.

his arm is nice in RF, but could be deadly in CF if he can keep his accuracy.

"We need to get more athletic"

Fuck that!

That's shit we didn't take from Dusty why should we take from Lou.

Soriano is athletic, Fukudome is athletic, get some goddamn ball players with a brain between their ears would be better.

Pitchers getting 0-2 counts and working it full because they nibble, clowns sliding into first base, not getting sure and no situation hitting.

Having a bad day, but cut that shit and get some baseball players.

because Dusty's teams sucked?

at this point, I would guess one lefty bat (which will just replace Edmonds) and some lefty bullpen arms is going to be about the only differences in next year's team.

and Peavy!

I like the option of moving Fukudome to center and keeping Reed Johnson. Since we need a lefthanded hitter it's best that we are not limited to center but have both center and right open. (Not to mention short and second.)

Also, I want to go on record of being 100% against resigning Dempster and 100% for resigning Wood.

Moving Fukudome to CF is probably necessary, but then we need to get someone with power to replace him in right.

This year, Edmonds was probably one of the most valuable players on the team because he provided the pop that should have been coming from RF. Without that power in the lineup next year, we're basically doing what we did in 2005 by replacing DLee with Neifi (although on a smaller scale).

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/jon_...

The Cubs seem like a logical landing spot for Bobby Abreu.

.296 .371 .471 120

would be alright but can he put that up again? He'll be 35 next march.

I don't think he qualifies as younger....Yankee Stadium is pretty kind to lefties too.

 

i didn't say younger.

Lou did.

hendry's the GM

really, I thought Lou ran everything. thanks for the clarification...

they just had organizational meetings and that interview was just done during the World Series. Lou and Jim are usually on the same page, especially with the offseason moves.

so if Lou says the plans are to get younger, more athletic and find some lefty bats and bullpen arms, I'm guessing that's the organizational plans as well.

Doesn't mean they'll nail them all, but that's probably what they're looking for...

just clarifying

i rule!

http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/sports_baseball_marl...

"Jeremy Hermida does nothing for me. No passion for the game. Once Fredi took him out of the lineup down the stretch, his lower lip was dragging. I saw him take BP late in the year and he looked like he was getting ready for an A-ball game. I have my doubts about him. No interest here."

of course it doesn't say what team the scout works for, but has some thoughts on their other players.

"looked like he was getting ready for an A-ball game"

wut?

" he looked like he was getting ready for an A-ball game. "

If he was playing in FL same it would be same size crowd as an A ball game.

i can't believe they're playing for this long in these conditions.

that's some miserable stuff with a pathetic playing field condition.

wonder who's calling the shots for delays...it sure as hell isn't the umps.

They just went into rain delay. Radar is just saying bascially no baseball the rest of tonight and likely tomorrow according to the forecast.

Historians will remember as the Steroid Era gave way to the Tie Era.

Heh... line of the day, from BCB:

[DeRosa's] increased HR and BB totals account for the difference in OBA and SLG.

That, my friends, is called brilliant analysis. Who would have thought that an increase in HR and BB would increase OBA and SLUG?

I also heard that in the same amount of at bats, he had less hits. I think that's why he had a lower batting average.

Not to mention that his increase in oba and slg might be the reason why his OPS went up.

I'm not into sabrestats so i'll have to consult my bill james handbook.

yeah those sabrestats are good at poking holes at the arguments of numbers people.

http://www.cubshub.com/?p=982

Very interesting article on the idea of stretching out Marmol to be a starter. Similiar approach to what the Yanks did with Chamberlain. Point being that his cheap years of being under club control are being burned while he is a set up guy, better bang for your buck if he is a front end starter. Most relievers became releivers because they could not cut it as a starter....Marmol has never been given a fair chance. Look at his numbers.

I basically agree with this. I'm firmly in the camp that the Cubs should use their good prospects as relievers early in their careers rather than spending millions of dollars on guys like Howry, Eyre, Remlinger, Hawkins, etc.

Once the prospects cut their teeth in the bullpen, gradually stretch them out and put them in the rotation. Here's why:

1) You probably end up with a better bullpen since you're using good pitchers rather than guys who just couldn't cut it as starters

2) Your best prospects get to face major league hitters instead of minor league chumps

3) You might end up saving your best prospects' arms because theyre pitching fewer innings while still facing good hitters. Once they move up to the starting rotation they have less milage on their arms than if they were throwing 200 innings a year in the minors.

The difference bewteen Joba and Marmol is Joba has 4 pitches and Marmol has 2.

Actually, I think one of the biggest differences between Joba and Marmol is that one has been involved in a highly-publicized debate over whether he should be a starter or not, and the other has succeeded almost exclusively as a reliever and that role has been relatively unquestioned.

As a starter, Marmol threw a changeup and a curve in addition to his fastball and slider. The quality of these pitches can be debated, and, basically, I can't say how good they were. As a starter, Marmol's fastball and slider weren't nearly as good as they are now. Is that because of the limited workload or is it because he's had more time pitching? I don't know. Probably Marmol would not have nearly as much success as he's had as a reliever. His tendency to throw a lot of pitches and to throw the ball out of the zone quite a bit would probably hurt him.

I was very much in favor of giving Marmol a real chance as a starter at this time last year. I don't know what exactly has changed now, but I'm a little less optimistic, though I guess I wouldn't object a whole lot to him getting a shot. Then again, maybe it's his importance to our bullpen that makes me wonder whether the off chance that he turns into a top 3 starter is worth the sacrifice.

Marmol has already found his niche. He is eventually going to be this team's closer and he's going to be damn good at it.

"He is eventually going to be this team's closer and he's going to be damn good at it."

I won't argue with you on that.

The niche part I'm not sure about, though it's possible. I'm not sure Marmol needs a "niche," but I do think he'll continue to be damn good as a reliever, and I really have very little idea what kind of starter he would be.

One more thing to add to the Joba-Marmol comparison.

The Yanks need Joba to start more than the Cubs need Marmol to--the yanks have a pretty rough rotation. The Cubs have a good one and a few starter candidates who won't even have a spot in it.

TV ratings are down 25% over last year.

What a fucking debacle.

Ratings wise, it has been a debacle and the TV people probably blame the Cubs for that.

I blame Hendry.

My vote for the blame game is for Corey and Eric Patterson...

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs...

Paul Sullivan speculates on the usual suspects who might join the Cubs, as well as Dunn and Fuentes.

Slow day for news. Griffey and Garret Anderson released. Caveman, anyone?

Hah. I was just coming here to comment about Griff. He wouldn't be a bad platoon for RF. Another lefty off the bench.

I'm guessing he'll be overpriced due to past performance.

Griffey vs right-handers in 2008: .272 / .379 / .462.

Could be a good platoon with DeRosa, and he and Lou are supposed to be close. But would he accept a platoon? And an AL team gives him the opportunity to DH.

Sullivan sez:
If Furcal came over, Ryan Theriot would move back to second and Mark DeRosa would become the regular right fielder.

And how does that make the Cubs a better-hitting team? Furcal is Theriot, only better; replacing last years' 2Bs with Theriot makes the Cubs a worse-hitting team. Probably better defensively, but replace Fukudome's defense with DeRosa's and it's probably less than a wash.

Defensively, Furcal is way better defensively at SS than Theriot. Comparing DeRosa to Fukudome's defense is a little misleading, since Fukudome absolutely won't be the starting day RFer.

But you meant a better-hitting team. The Cubs don't need to be a better-hitting team in that they need to score more runs per se. They need to be better-hitting in that the lineup needs more balance with left-handers and preferably needs more guys whose loopy swings aren't affected by the long layoffs that now come with playoff baseball.

Furcal does on a regular basis what Fukudome did for the Cubs' lineup early last year - except Rafael hits from both sides of the plate.

For the record, I'm not advocating Furcal simply on a cost-return basis, unless the payroll is going to $160 million or something like that. A starter, a pair of relievers and left-handed power in right field are much more pressing, IMO. If the money is there after all that, then yeah, go get him. Theriot becomes the utility guy he can aptly be and fills in when Furcal or DeRo goes down, so fills in for DeRo at 2B when Soriano, Ramirez or the right fielder goes down. (Sounds to me like quite a few ABs, actually.)

Well... basically it would be replacing Fukudome with Furcal.

You gain defense at SS, probably stay about the same at 2b, and lose defense in RF.

Actually you probably gain a bit at 2B as well; the knock on Theriot has always been more about his arm, which would be a non-issue throwing from closer to 1st.

And, thinking a bit more on this, if you consider the number of balls hit to SS/2B versus those hit to RF, it may not be a wash at all.

A Furcal/Theriot 1-2 punch at the top of the order would be an OBP machine, but can you imagine the number of DPs Lee hits into then?

Fukudome's career OBP is higher than Furcal's. In Furcal's last full year he had an OBP of .333 and an OPS+ of 76, may as well bring back Juan Pierre.

Also, Theriot hits into a ton of double plays.

The Cubs projected Carlos Marmol as a reliever a year or two before they moved him from the starting rotation to the bullpen.

The Cubs discovered that when Marmol works out of the pen, he adds 3 MPH to his fastball when he doesn't have to pace himself, he can junk his below-average secondary stuff and use his slider more often, and he has much better control of his fastball and slider.

As long as he remains a Cub, Marmol will absolutely, positively NOT be moved to the starting rotation. His eventual future will be as the Cubs closer, although there is no rush unless the Cubs do not re-sign Kerry Wood. Marmol excels as a set-up guy because he's so good at stranding runners when he comes into a game with men on base.

Point taken on Marmol specifically, but I still think it's a smart idea to use your best pitching prospects as middle relievers until they develop and then gradually move them back to rotation starters.

Of course it's on a case by case basis, but there's just no reason to spend $5 million a year on guys like Howry, Linebrink, etc when you probably have options just as good in the minors for $440K.

Not really a new idea, Doug. MLB clubs have been doing that very same thing for years and years now. Very few SP's start out in the rotation. Most of them really cut their teeth first in the bullpen.

I never claimed to be the first guy to come up with it, but it's a philosophy I think the Cubs should employ. It seems over the past few years they've been all too willing to sign guys like Howry, Eyre, Remlinger, Hawkins, etc rather than using young, cheap farmhands instead.

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