Elias Rankings for Cubs Free Agents
The official Elias Rankings are out and MLB.com does their usual job of half-assery by not giving out the full list, but at least we know Joe Mauer is the top AL catcher. Gee thanks!
The ESPN free agent tracker gives the listings for those that have filed so far and it looks like SI.com has finally come through with the full list of potential free agents. For those unaware of the system or need a refresher, Elias has come up with some rather archaic ranking system that takes the last two years worth of stats and ranks every player in baseball...mostly relying on counting stats (decent explanation of the point system can be found near the end of this mlb.com article or read through this Tigers fans blog who is trying to reverse engineer their rankings). The importance of it is that MLB uses it to figure out free agent compensation. A type "A" player that is offered arbitration by his former team and is signed by a new team will net his old club a first round draft pick and a supplemental draft pick between the first and second round. A type "B" free agent nets his old team just a supplemental pick. Also, the first 15 picks in the draft are protected, so a team drafting in one of those slots that signs a type "A" free agent would give up their second round pick and so on.
For the Cubs...
Ryan Dempster - A
Bob Howry - A
Kerry Wood - A
Jim Edmonds, Chad Fox, Henry Blanco, Daryle Ward and Jon Lieber weren't in the top 40% of their positions. It's important to note that for the Elias Rankings there are essentially five positions - starting pitcher, relief pitcher, catcher, outfielders/first basmen(and DH for the AL), and infielders (2B, SS, 3B).
Bobby Abreu - A
Raul Ibanez - A
Mark Teixeira - A
Orlando Hudson - A
Derek Lowe - A
A.J. Burnett - A
Brian Fuentes - A
C.C. Sabathia - A
Derek Lowe - A
Milton Bradley - B
Randy Wolf - B
Garrett Anderson - B
Milton Bradley - B
Joe Beimel - B
Rafael Furcal - no compensation
If you're wondering how Bob Howry is a Type A free agent, remember it's two years worth of rankings and there are a lot of relief pitchers in baseball....apparently 80% of them worst than Howry. If you're wondering how Furcal isn't rated at all, he's only played 172 games over two seasons and is being compared to every second basemen, shortstop and third basemen in the league which sure doesn't seem fair. Of course, it's not fair to group center fielders with first basemen and corner outfielders either. The non-ranking Furcal will certainly boost his stock a bit in the free agent market as will Bradley's "B" status.
The rankings for Dempster and Wood are good things for the Cubs. Since they want to keep both pitchers, it's a no-brainer to offer them arbitration even at the risk of paying a potentially higher one year salary if they do accept it. Since both players will certainly be signing multi-year deals, there's really no risk of them getting inflated arbitration prices. And if they end up losing them, the Cubs will be compensated handsomely. The Type "A" for Howry though is unfortunate. If he was a Type "B" free agent, a team probably wouldn't hesitate to sign Howry, even if he was offered arbitration by the Cubs, since they wouldn't lose any draft picks. The Cubs though could gain one in the supplemental round. Think Jason Kendall last year, a Type "B" free agent that the Cubs weren't planning to bring back, but since it didn't cost the Brewers a draft pick they signed him before the arbitration deadline and the Cubs received an extra supplemental round pick. The same happened with Juan Pierre and the Dodgers the year before which turned into a key trading chip (Josh Donaldson) in getting Rich Harden. WIth Howry a Type "A" free agent and assuming he's not coming back to the Cubs, there's a good chance he won't be signed until after the deadline to offer arbitration (December 1st) as teams will not want to risk having to give up a potential first or second round pick (or possibly third if they go on a Type A spending spree). That leaves the ball in the Cubs court and risk offering Bob Howry arbitration and the chance that he'll accept it, which would likely mean a one-year salary a lot higher than the Cubs would want to pay for Home Run Howry's services. As Arizona Phil in the comments explained, the Cubs could get away with offering arbitration to Howry in hopes of still getting draft picks and if he does end up accepting it, the Cubs could just release him in spring training at a severe discount, something the Padres did recently with Todd Walker and a loophole I'm sure the MLBPA will be sure to get removed in the next CBA negotiations.
If the Cubs do dip into the free agents waters, their first round pick at #32 is certainly not protected but low enough that it's not something they need to really worry about it. If you're wondering why they're picking #32 when there are only 30 teams, three ballclubs (Nats, Mariners, Yankees) get an extra first round pick for not signing their first round picks last year. And if Dempster, Wood or Howry were to sign somewhere else the Cubs would likely get some extra supplemental draft picks and improve their spot in the first round.The Cubs have so far expressed a desire for left-handed hitting and bullpen arms although indications have been they prefer the trade market over the free agent market but that is all subject to change. We'll see what they do about a left-handed middle of the order bat but guys like Alan Embree, Brian Shouse and Joe Beimel might be interesting relief options as Type "B" free agents.
given that he seems to only be throwing low 90s these days rather than the 93-96mph he used to throw, along with his wildness issues this year, he may end up passing through.
i dunno if something is wrong with him physically or his past shoulder issues has rendered him what he currently is, but he's been throwing a lot of sliders he can't control well and his fastball isn't as sharp. even when his slider wasn't working in a game he was still throwing a lot of them.
Any scuttlebutt on where Neil Ramirez gets traded?
He seems better than some of the relievers on competitive teams. He ought to bring more than the waiver fee.
My guess? Toronto.
PHIL: It seems as if Paniagua has always played 1B with the Cubs. At 6'2 and 180#, what is his frame like? String bean? Have you seen him bulk up? Where do you project him? Thanks.
Phil, what's your thoughts on which position players are going to Eugene and who is staying in AZL?
Ahhh...way to bring me down BB.
Still - a win tomorrow will be an acheivement regardless.
Don't mean to spoil your mood, but with tonight's win the are 3-5 on the trip with one to play.
While I'm bringing the room down -- Richard comes in to pitch the 9th with a 12-1 lead...and can't finish the game. Woof.
For some reason
It is remarkable how my mood has become uplifted with one game against the Cards.
That is sick.
But, I have been an addict for a long time.
A W tomorrow and it will be a .500 road trip.
Also, to keep the losses in perspective, if the Cubs were to lose 10 games a month - a lot at this current pace - they still end up 102-60. Six months of the ride!
So, the Mesa Cubs should be solid this summer in the AZL Rookie League?
And, I like the, "But did you know" lead in there. Something a little different.
I can tell really like this group of hitters in AZ right now.
What pitchers out there, other than Cease, should we be excited about?
Thanks as always for the info.
back on the Run Differential hunt... (aka The Hunt for Blue October)
These are the 2016 Cubs I know and love. Also digging that Cardinals OF (lack of) defense.
Another day, another eight runs
I'm not sure there was another team in baseball that would flip a Dansby Swanson type of prospect (plus Inciarte, plus Toussaint) for Miller. That trade was just comically bad from the start, and getting worse...
Zobrist just keeps squaring up - and Soler goes yard!
Pirates jumping all over Shelby Miller tonight - so glad the Cubs didn't flip a Dansby Swanson type prospect to the Braves for him. Two years of Lackey looking like a good alternative.
3rd inning...soler walked twice in the game...first time since aug 4th last year in the regular season (2 times in the playoffs, amazingly).