T-Minus 4 Days on Tanaka

It's a little less than 4 days before Decision Tanaka is due and nobody knows nothing except that everybody seems to need speculate on something. Bruce Levine reported that the Cubs will not be outbid. Gordon Wittenmyer said that's rubbish and Cubs remain a longshot. Jayson Stark kept hearing from important baseball people that the Cubs were going to make a splash and so on and so on.

As of this morning, the latest rumors are that the deal will be in the 6/120M range (not including posting fees) and that the Yankees and Cubs are the last 2 teams standing. Of course, it's also been said that Tanaka's agent Casey Close follows his namesake and doesn't negotiate through the media and we know the Cubs and Yankees like to keep things close to the vest. Unfortunately the Diamondbacks aren't in on this, otherwise we'd know exactly where everything stands thanks to Kevin Towers.

So what do we know? We know Tanaka will be playing his age 25 season, and that young age plus his pitching skills are why the Cubs and TheJedi would be willing to hand out their first 9-figure deal. Is the price going to be ridiculous? You betcha!!! And as Jayson Stark noted, only 8 other pitchers in the league are getting paid over $20M annually and only 2 don't own Cy Youngs (Kershaw, Sabathia, Hamels, Lee, Cain, Verlander, Greinke, and King Felix).

But of course, this isn't a case where you're paying for past performance, the Cubs would be paying for potential future performance and that's obviously not the norm by baseball practices, but on the other hand, probably smarter. Granted, the chances of Tanaka even being one of the top 5 pitchers in the National League are slim as most scouts put him more as a solid #2 pitcher. But #2 pitchers pitch like #1 pitchers all the time and Jeff Samardzija's numbers look like a #3 or #4 pitcher at the end of most every season, but there's #1 or #2 stuff in that arm that occasionally shows itself and the Cubs are hoping they get paid in prospects like he's a #1.  So don't get too riled up about his alleged slot in the rotation. Travis Wood had the 12th best ERA in the National League last year, but when you look at things like FIP and BABIP, you realize, he's probably more a mid to low-end rotation starter. But you get enough good pitchers and you never know which ones will pitch great in any given year, you just hope for solid results and enough depth to make it through the season and then hope for a little magic and luck to ride through the postseason. A starting staff of Samardzija, Tanaka, T. Wood, E. Jackson (who will bounce back) and Jake Arrieta sure doesn't sound bad. I'm not sure it's great, but it's a good start for a few years while the minor league reinforcements continue their basic training.

So as the January 24th deadline looms, Tanaka and his family have some decisions to make. My guess is the Cubs know that joining a rebuilding team is a tough sell and they went all in on their bid, hoping to lure him with money and the promise that the winning is just around the corner. Now what that all-in means, we may or may not find out, but if he chooses to go with another team, my guess is the reasons will go beyond the financial ones.


You may have seen the announcement last week that MLB has approved the use of expanded instant replay. I won't go into the details, but fair to say I'm happy that there will be more correct calls and less incorrect calls. That is a good thing. It will not be perfect, although I'm sure some will demand perfection. Some folks are worried that it will extend the length of what is already a pretty lengthy baseball game. That may or may not be the case, since it would in theory cut down on some of the lengthy shouting matches over calls. What I would have really liked to accompany the announcement is that any player or manager protesting a call that goes beyond a moment of exasperation would be immediately ejected from a game. And if a manager left the dugout to argue, he'd immediately get slapped with a 5-game suspension with no appeal. Add that to the mix and you have a system that should work nicely and swiftly.

Comments

Jason Parks at BP making the case for Javier Baez as #1 prospect in baseball.

rumor that Tanaka decision may come in 3-4 hours, not from a major media source but you never know in this day and age.

Would be around 7-9pm CST if true

Go Banana!

...probably coming from David Kaplan, as that matches the time for his radio show on WGN, or it's a Mark Carman ruse so that Kap can beat MC up some more

(unless Tanaka is flying to Chicago in a Lou Malnoti's private jet)

fwiw, Stark says it's probably not happening until Friday

PS - "Astros owner confirms interest in SP Tanaka"; MYSTERY TEAM!!!!!

Astros probably farther along the rebuild process than Cubs and should also have plenty of cash, wouldn't put it past them...plus no state tax leverage.

Nice summary of the situation, Rob.

Jesse Rogers chat recap

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chicago/chat/_/id/49854

thinks Cubs would be willing to go up to $25M per year on Tanaka

If they throw in a statue at the gates, how can he turn it down? And maybe a Tanaka Tavern in the new WrigleyPlex?

and start selling sushi + Bud Light combo packs. Real classylike.

@Ken_Rosenthal BREAKING: Tanaka to #Yankees, seven years, $155M, opt-out after fourth year.

 

I am both sad and happy.

I can't be pissed aboutt not getting him at that price.

Now we can move on to the Paul Maholm watch. fffffffffffffff

Paul Maholm watch is my favorite part of every Cubs offseason...

I feel certain that the improvements made in Duct Tape in the past 4 years will revive Chad Fox's career.

Briefly.

A little disappointed, but only because I want to see the Cubs moving towards being competitive sooner rather than later, not because I think spending that amount on an import is a slam dunk.

Well...Not saying he should have picked the Cubs, but good luck with that in 2 years once Jeter, Teixeira, Sabathia, Ichiro, etc. etc.etc are gone/crippled/older than dirt.

Now we can move on to the Cubs big signing of Matt Garza. Wait....

I have a feeling the Yankees will figure it out.

They will... But with some of the older players under contract for 3 seasons or more, and getting older...it's not going to be that easy, even with their bottomless checkbook.
Teixeira 3 more years at $22.5 mill per...Sabathia 4 more years...$23-25 million per...Beltran 3years $15 mill per....McCann 5 years at $17 million per..Ellsbury 7 years, $21 per..
Thats a lot of money for players over 30.

The only reason I really wanted the Cubs to get him is that this has been a dead offseason for the Cubs, and they lost 96 games last year. Teams that lose 96 games shouldn't stand pat.

Justin Ruggiano fever. Catch it.

I did, and my eyes are hemorrhaging from seeing that he struck out every fourth at bat or so last year.

Looking forward to the #1 draft pick in 2015, who is our main competition this year? Where can I find those inverted standings starting in April?

pretty much the same as this past season with the exception of seattle, minnesota, and maybe the wsox and marlins.

either way, the cubs should be in line for some mediocracy. the SP is decent...then pen seems improved...the bats are anemic as hell unless castro/rizzo step up to expectations and have some company.

the pen was so awful last year...i like where it's at this season though it's full of "boring" names. i kinda wonder if they'll transition j.grimm to the pen or keep trying to make his stuff work as a starter.

25m a year for tanaka (counting posting fee) and he's seeing 22m of it...that's crazy.

yu darvish must feel slighted right now. he would probably be worth 30m, and easily doubling what he's currently making.

http://www.suntimes.com/25113883-761/wrigley-field-deal-fell-apart-at-st...

rooftop owners and Cubs reach impasse, Cubs will move forward on building right field sign, rooftop owners will likely sue to block it. They already filed a suit against some financial advisor back in the Tribune owned days over defamation.

“We have worked hard to reach a resolution with our rooftop partners which would have helped preserve their views, including reducing the number, size and location of signs. Unfortunately, they opted yesterday to reject the proposal and file this lawsuit,” [Cubs spokesman Julian] Green said.

 

“Since our approvals last year, we have been anxious to get the Wrigley Field renovation started. Yesterday’s action will certainly force additional delays to our project.”

The rooftop owners need better PR. The Cubs just get to put whatever quotes they want in all the local media outlets and spin this like they're the victims. A contract's a contract, live up to it.

I just hope this lawsuit somehow saves Ricketts from himself. Eroding everything that's special and unique about Wrigley Field while putting out a horrible product year-after-year doesn't seem like a great recipe for long-term success. But I'm sure I'll hear it from everyone who thinks the Cubs should just move to Warrenville because it's hard to park in the city.

I disagree with basically every word of this post. Well I agree a contract is a contract I guess. Beyond that wrigley field is eroding and filled with drunk yuppies. What's so awesome about that? I think it's noble to try and retain the field with improvements that might generate revenue and make the team competitive. It hasn't been the 'friendly confines' in decades. As far as the product on the field, that Ricketts has improved the organization is indisputable to all but the most casual fan. As far as the contract I don't know the entire story but if that contract ends anytime in the next 5-10 years this negotiation is short sighted as hell on the part of the rooftop parasites. Just my 2 cents though.

One more thing. If anything I think the organization of the rooftops into marketable profit streams has been more offensive to me than anything else. There is nothing 'traditional' about the formal rooftop risers for those of us who started watching in the 60's.

A contract IS a contract -- but in commercial law, if a contract is no longer advantageous for the Cubs, they can break the contract and pay the damages. Nothing sacred about a contract or dishonorable about breaking it and paying the requisite damages. The amount of damages would be the difference between the rooftops' income (and property value) with the obstructions being put up and without the obstructions. That may be significant -- and it may be very little. That would have to be worked out between the parties involved -- or in court, if they can't agree on a figure.

A contract doesn't freeze the parties into what they agreed on at the time it was signed. Things happen and circumstances change. When they do, you break the agreement and pay fair compensation for what the parties lost out on -- and you move on. The Wrigley renovation may actually have very little commercial effect on the rooftop owners. They are going to have to prove otherwise.

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/21027/cubs-could-still-to...

it won't be Scott Baker, Maholm and Hammel still on the radar

hammel fits this team's profile...great stuff in an arm that hasn't put it together yet which should play it's way into a contract with risk + upside.

"Padres acquired LHP Alex Torres and RHP Jesse Hahn from the Rays for INF Logan Forsythe, RHPs Brad Boxberger, Matt Andriese, Matt Lollis and INF Maxx Tissenbaum."

i wonder what TB is seeing in that crop of players while giving up a.torres...seems odd. torres really deserves the chance to start again. he was pretty much used there out of necessity and a loaded SP rather than talent limitations.

yeah, this rooftop thing is a mess

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20140122/BLOGS04/140129903/talks-...

Cubs in 2025!!!!

Really....how many more times is Ricketts going to let himself (and the Cubs) get bitch slapped by these rooftop parasites? Not to mention the Tunney/Rahm circle jerk.

MOVE, dammit!!! Go anywhere outside of the city limits where you get the best land deal, etc. and the Cubs control all the revenue streams - advertising, hotels, concessions, tickets and parking.

You do that or they reach a very costly settlement that pays the leaches their pound of flesh until the contract expires. I'm coming to the conclusion that Ricketts is more of a Wrigley Field fan than savvy businessman.

I hate the Tanaka contract and would be a nervous wreck if we paid that for him. That said, the competitive childhood sports fan in me just wants to poke his head out and say: go screw yourself Tanaka. You are now my least favorite player ever. Enjoy the no-win PR pressure cooker of NYC and I hope you suck fisheads for the entirety if your MLB career. You could have been part of the greatest mlb story ever (the cubs winning the World Series after 110 years etc.). Instead you went to cliche-town for absurd money.

Also as an aside I really did wonder how weird the Cubs' clubhouse would be with the $25 million dollar a year rookie dwarfing the rest of the roster.

But yeah. I hate your guts Tanaka.

yanks get tanaka...cubs get threatened to sue by rooftop owners over expansions that don't even have permits yet.

the 2014 cubs team MVP is probably going to be a lawyer-to-be-named.

Red Sox end up signing Sizemore...750K base, up to $6M.

Ian Stewart with minor league deal from Angels, spring training invite...twitter privileges if he makes major league team.

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  • 34-14...awww yeah.

    crunch 18 min 53 sec ago view
  • Good thing the Cubs have five left-handed batters in the lineup. Velasquez is just tearing thru the righties [edit - doesn't seem to faze Bryant!]

    Eric S 1 hour 39 min ago view
  • ben zobrist gets to ride up front tonight cause he's a good guy at sports.

    cubs with a 5 run lead and a lackey shutout through 3ip \m/

    crunch 2 hours 13 min ago view
  • HAGSAG: I have not seen Joe Nathan out on the field, but he is supposedly at the UAPC. 

    Arizona Phil 5 hours 9 min ago view
  • ERIC S: Best outing I've ever seen from Manny Rondon, and I've seen most of his outings since the Cubs got him from the Angels. 

    M. Rondon is competing with six others (Dylan Cease, Bryan Hudson, Jose Paulino, Pedro Silverio, Jesus Castillo, and Erling Moreno) for a starting slot at Eugene, and (as you can probably tell from the EXST box scores)  the competition has gotten fierce over the last couple of weeks, With the exception of Moreno, the Eugene SP candidates have upped their game lately, and M. Rondon's outing yesterday was especially impressive/dominating. 

    Arizona Phil 5 hours 12 min ago view
  • E-MAN: Pierce Johnsion was mixing a 92-94 MPH fastball with a plus-change-up AND curve, and he threw strike-after-strike-after-strike with all three of his pitches. I believe that was the best command and pitch-efficiency I've ever seen from Johnson, who often pitches from behind in the count and issues too many walks.  

    Of course now he has to avoid a recurrence of the lat strain (whch he has had previously in his career) as well as all of the other miscellaneous physical problems he's had over the last three years (hamstring, quad, back, etc).  

    Arizona Phil 5 hours 22 min ago view
  • PHIL: Any movement on P. Johnsons pitches? What was his "out" pitch? I know he was working on a 4th pitch, so wondering what he is looking like these days. Thanks.

    The E-Man 6 hours 5 min ago view
  • AZ Phil, has Nathan showed up in Mesa yet? Thanks.

    Hagsag 10 hours 50 min ago view
  • Eickhoff looks like a good young pitcher. Lets steal him!

    Hagsag 10 hours 51 min ago view
  • Manny Rondon faced 13 batters ... and got 10 to K. Not a bad day's work.

    Eric S 20 hours 32 min ago view
  • With several other Cubs hitters bailing out on curves today I think overall it wasn't being seen well. It for sure looked silly but a good breaking pitch coming at you and then breaking down isn't the easiest thing to see and has made many hitters look silly. Also Soler should have more walks this year but for quite a few called strikes that were actual balls and even the called strike he bailed on was borderline.

    johann 23 hours 30 min ago view
  • it's not like we're talking about a guy who's never had issues with pitch selection and seeing the ball over here. we're talking about a guy who has some rather legendary swing-and-misses at breaking stuff who's been exploited low. going forward it's worth paying attention to seeing if he can be exploited inside, too. he seriously bailed out of the box on a called strike. sure it was a good curve, but he obviously didn't see that well at all.

    crunch 23 hours 42 min ago view
  • It would seem like he is figuring it out now and it's really coming together. Really happy for him. Joe was really protecting him from the 3rd time through the order, but as you allude to, he is earning trust to go deeper.

    Wondering if has potential to become a #3 pitcher? His current stats certainly support it.

    The E-Man 23 hours 51 min ago view
  • That doesn't count b/c CRUNCH didn't see it on his 60" HDTV 5 times in replay.

    I have seen many players "bail out" when the ball looked like it was gonna hit them.

    Especially with the advent of the splitter and pitchers that can really get the ball to dance. Marmol, Sutter, Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, Derek Lowe, Smoltz, Arrietta...

    These guys have made the best bail out only for the ball to come over the plate and be called a strike.

    No shame in that. The same way players whiff hard enough to cause them to drill a hole in the ground from spinning.

    The E-Man 23 hours 57 min ago view
  • a 60" TV with slow-motion replay and multiple looks on that replay helps...a lot...

    it's one thing to shy away like he did the 2nd time, it's another to bail out of the box on a called strike. that happened in the 1st one he pulled away from. he misjudged that one by a foot or so...

    crunch 1 day 15 min ago view
  • Good Hendricks sure is fun to watch. He was hitting all his corners today and the Phillies couldn't do anything with his changeup.

    johann 1 day 51 min ago view