Your 25-Man Roster Guess
The Cubs made two handfuls of expected cuts yesterday which included optioning Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler, Albert Almora, Arismendy Alcantara, Logan Watkins, Matt Szczur, Jeudy Valdez, Carlos Pimentel and Eric Jokisch...releasing Aaron Cunningham brings it up to 10. That leaves camp with 56, but only 25 get to travel and we know many still there are just getting their work in. So let's take a best guess at the 25-man Opening Day Roster.
C: Castillo, Kottaras with John Baker trying to bump Kottaras
INF: Rizzo, Barney, Castro, Valbuena, Murphy
OF: Schierholtz, Lake, Sweeney, Ruggiano
That leaves 2 spots open presuming they go with the standard 13 and it seems Mike Olt, Emilio Bonifacio, Ryan Roberts and Ryan Kalish are your 4 best bets to get those 2 spots. Of course, there's also the hot-hitting Javier Baez and if Castro's hamstring injury doesn't clear up soon, it wouldn't be implausible that he's your starting shortstop on Opening Day, but that would open up a spot with Castro on the disabled list so it shouldn't effect the bench much. It does seem that Mike Olt is working his way to a starting 3b gig and my guess that would mean the end of either Valbuena or Murphy. If I had to guess now, it would be Olt starting at 3b, Murphy getting cut with Bonifacio and Roberts getting the last 2 spots and Kalish accepting a minor league assignment, but a lot can change the last few weeks of spring training.
SP: Samardzija, Wood, Jackson, Hammel (1 spot open)
RP: Veras, Strop, Wright, Russell, Villanueva (2 spots open...3 if Villanueva starts)
Jake Arrieta should be the final starter, but it doesn't look like he'll be ready, leaving a spot open for Kyle Hendricks, James McDonald, Chris Rusin or Carlos Villanueva. If Villanueva takes the 5th starter job, which would be my guess at the moment, that'll open up a spot in the pen where the candidate list is anything but short.
In some order of expectedness...
A. Cabrera, Grimm, Rondon, Parker, Rosscup, J. Sanchez, Rosscup, N. Ramirez and whomever I'm forgetting.
Cabrera might seem like a surprise, but seems to have pitched well enough and is out of options, giving him a boost.. The rest will be based off spring performance and Grimm seems to be the leader of that group. Ramirez has had a few good outings, but he hasn't had much success past AA yet, so I think it would have to be overwhelming for him to make th team out of Arizona. We'll see about the rest, Rondon and Parker seemed like favorites before spring training started, but haven't pitched well so far. And of course it's always important to note, that the pen you start out with is never the pen you end up with. The pieces will certainly shift accordingly.
LOCKED IN (MOST LIKELY) - 18
Castillo, Kottaras, Rizzo, Castro, Barney, Schierholtz, Ruggiano, Lake, Sweeney
Samardzija, Wood, E. Jackson, Hammel
Veras, Strop, Wright, Russell, Carlos Villanueva
DISABLED LIST - 2
ON THE BUBBLE - 16
Valbuena, Murphy, Olt, Roberts(NRI), Bonifacio(NRI), Kalish (NRI), C. Rusin, Hendricks(NRI), J. McDonald (NRI), A. Cabrera, Grimm, Rondon, Parker, Rosscup, J. Sanchez (NRI), Ramirez
MOST LIKELY CUT OR OPTIONED - 22
J. Vitters, B. Jackson, Baez (NRI), Christian Villanueva, Beeler, A. Vizcaino, J. Baker (NRI), L. Flores (NRI), E. Whiteside (NRI), R. Lopez (NRI), W. Remillard (NRI), D. McDonald(NRI), M. Maier(NRI), Wells(NRI), Coughlan(NRI), M. Hatley (NRI), Hottovy (NRI), Yong-Lim (NRI), Rivero (NRI), Schlitter (NRI), Wada (NRI), Valaika (NRI)
ALREADY OPTIONED OR RELEASED - 10
Soler, Bryant, Almora, Alcantara, Szczur, Watkins, Valdez(NRI), Pimentel(NRI), Jokisch(NRI), A. Cunningham
For some reason, I'm getting 58 players left versus Muskat's assertion of 56. My guess is Arizona Phil can clear that up pretty quick, but if I were to hazard a guess, the original story on the non-roster invitees has L. Flores and W. Remillard as catchers that will assist at times, rather than actually invitees as Phil has listed on the sidebar.
Sure, no marks and some inconsistencies in the witness's statements. But firing your gun into garage wall immediately after an argument and punching out your car window is still threatening and out of control behavior. There was certainly enough for MLB to think it warranted a 30-game suspension.
I'd prefer they be flexible with the closing situation depending on matchups. You're not really adding a lefty reliever if you use him strictly as a closer.
Stockpiling young talent isn't only for trading for someone like Chapman though. Even with an elite closer winning the World Series is basically a crap shoot so the key is to get to the playoffs as much as possible and not just mortgage everything on one year. Once you get there an elite bullpen certainly helps but the playoffs can be won by one hitter or starting pitcher getting hot (Murphy, Molina, Baumgardner) and a closer might not be able to stop that.
I'm also not crazy about press convictions. As the police report noted, there were no marks on the lady in question. There's a TMZ link (of course) to her police pictures, as well.
I think the only way this trade goes real bad is if Cubbery intervenes and Chapman is suddenly bad for some reason.
I am right there with you closing in on 60.
I don't care that much about "mortgaging" one player who is not only blocked by two guys, but is not ready to hit the majors for at least a couple years.
There is no reason why this team, this year, can't have a real shot at something NONE of us have experienced.
Further, I don't feel that even if they fall short that they have ruined their farm system.
I have made my opinion clear here, with others, Warren was shit on the Cubs save one spot start.
Trading for Warren, Warren sucking, getting Warren back for Chapman plus 3 prospects, sounds like Revenge of The Yankees on the former Boston executive. Old rivalries never die.
I pray to the heavens above Chapman doesn't suck for some reason, or he'll be booed out of town faster than a Todd Hundley revival meeting.
I'm kind of nostalgic for the Schwarber-for-Miller rumors.
This offseason, after some ridiculous playoff run and Chapman saving every game from here until the end of the postseason striking out 27/9innings, I welcome anyone to quote this thread and call me a dummy: I hate this trade, and my hate is 2 parts Chapman makes this team less likeable and 1 part that's a ridiculous overpay for 30 regular season innings and, at tops, 10 postseason innings. Already hoping they don't extend him.
btw...Thanks AZ Phil. I'm really enjoying your take on this trade.
I'm a bit disappointed on the Warren experience. Essentially they gave Castro away for crickets (OK, well they signed Zobrist with the Castro salary dump). Otherwise one might look at it as Chapman for Castro and our #1 minors prospect (Torres) + McKinney/Crawford. Seems pricey for a 2 month rental. We will see if this price tag is that steep in a relative way based on the remaining deadline deals for relievers.
Yep. One of the great things about this team (in addition to being really good at baseball) was the "likable" factor. Feels a bit different now. Who knows...maybe Chapman will be the king of the dance parties.
Here are some possible corresponding minor league moves we might see in the aftermath of the Chapman trade:
SOUTH BEND to MYRTLE BEACH: OF Donnie Dewees and INF Bryant Flete
EUGENE to SOUTH BEND: OF Robert Garcia and INF Vimael Machin
There is really no reason to replace Billy McKinney at Tennessee because both Chris Coghlan and Jorge Soler are doing their rehab at Tennessee.
And there are plenty of pitchers at Iowa. No need to replace Warren at AAA. .
I am 70 years old. The Cubs last played in the World Series in 1945. I was born in 1946. I hate to lose a prospect like Torres, but when the opportunity is there to get that World Series ring, you go for it. This was the idea in stock piling all this young talent. I would like to see Reddick added now and the Cubbies should be done.
I would expect Richard to accept an optional assignment because based on how he's played this season, there is a decent chance that he won't find work elsewhere. Rather stay and potentially get a ring. Same goes for Coghlan since he's struggled mightily this year.
Edwards should not go down. He's pitched very well and Maddon is very impressed with him. I would expect Grimm to go down for Cahill so he can get back on track (he's pitched better in July, but he's not getting enough appearances).
chitownmvp01: Indeed Clayton Richard would seem to be odd man out once Chapman reports, but Richard might accept a minor league assignment if he is promised a return to Chicago on 9/1 when MLB Active List rosters expand (Richard has minor league ioptions left).
The only player in the deal that would cause me a second thought is Gleyber Torres.
McKinney and Crawford are decent prospects but both are redundant/replaceable in the system and Warren was really only a middle-reliever or #6 starter, so to me it's really just Torres for Chapman.