Delusions of Grandeur

Kansas City is focused on Sean Marshall and Mike Fontenot in talks with the Cubs about Mark Teahen. …

That is according to a Phil Rogers article.

That's great, I'm focused on solving world peace after I cure cancer, which will all happen after I retire at age 35 because the charming widow across the street is really the heir to the Buffett family fortune and appreciates when I roll her garbage can up her driveway on Tuesdays.

Let's just say I don't see either one happening.

Return to Homepage

Comments

I wouldn't give up Marshall alone for Teahen...but maybe Fonte.

the Marshall shit is ridiculous, Teahen can play some more positions than Fontenot so I guess he's more of a "NL player" that I could possibly see that happening. Not that I would do it...

If it's both, that's just fucking nuts...

Word, my cracka'. I'd probably do Fontenot, because he's really a backup (a good back-up, mind you), and Teahen still has more of that so-called potential. He could still turn into a good everyday player, but if not, he'd be a pretty good bench dude. Maybe.

Someone here also mentioned Hendry's knack for getting guys right before they break out, so I've got that hope.

I'd rather turn Marquis into something...even if it's a loogy...and using Marshall as a 4th or 5th. The other spot being reserved for Harden.

Or maybe we can turn Marquis and Theriot into Hanley?

Didn't the Cubs already try Jody Gerut? That went well.

He had a great year last year though. If we had him NOW, we might just roll with that as our LH-hitting option.

It wasn't like Gerut didn't work out for the Cubs. He was just never here long enough to show what he could really do. IIRC, he was still healing from an injury when we got him.

Believe you're right. He was still wearing that big ass DonJoy knee brace under his pinstripes after his ACL tear if I recall properly.

Although I'm a Tribe fan too, so that could have been when he was with them

on mlb.com

6th inning, Mesa up 4-3 but 2 on for the Phoenix Desert Dogs with one out

make it 5-4 Phoenix, no one from the Cubs seems to have played yet.

3-run dinger, Josh Donaldson....that's gonna suck when he's awesome for the A's.

9-4 Phoenix, still haven't seen a Cubbie.

alright, I've seen 3 or 4 Marlins pitchers, but not a Cub yet.

fwiw, the Marlins pitchers aren't very good...

Caridad is in...finally.

3.94 ERA, 16 IP, 17 K, 5 BB so far...

bottom of the 8th.

i think KC (rumor mongers) might underestimate how much both hendry and lou are fonte-fans.

weird looking and weirder talking little guy.

i could see either/or (fonte/marshall), but both would be a high price especially with cedeno falling flat on his face in winter ball so far.

I think the time is right to strike on a Fontenaught trade, if anyone seems him as a full-time major league starter. Keep in mind this is a guy who played in the highest levels of collegiate baseball and then took 7 years to get establihed in the majors. He's got 2700 PA's minor league PA's of .800 OPS on his record and doesn't have much to offer other than a pretty good dead pull line drive stroke.

I'm not a fan of Teahen unless, as I mentioned a few days ago, the Cubs coaches and scouts are sure his power stroke can be fixed.

Buy low, sell high. Trade DeRosa, not Fontenot. They're the same hitter, and you get more for DeRosa. And Fontenot's younger, although a lot of people who participate here will scratch their heads and wonder why that should make a difference. Isn't older better?

Strange, Neal, that you think Fontenot is a dead pull hitter.

And speaking of youth, I love the way Billy Beane got Hendry to "throw in" Donaldson as the fourth player in that Harden-Gallagher deal. In public, other GMs rave about what a nice guy Hendry is. I wonder what they say in private.

dont think anyone treated donaldson as a "throw-in"

both teams knew his potential i'd imagine.

And speaking of youth, I love the way Billy Beane got Hendry to "throw
in" Donaldson as the fourth player in that Harden-Gallagher deal. In
public, other GMs rave about what a nice guy Hendry is. I wonder what
they say in private.

"Damn, I wish we won 97 games last year and made the playoffs 3 of the last 6 years."

except Theo Epstein...who says, "Damn, that Bill James is smart."

Fontenot's hitting chart...too painful to go through all of it, his Wrigley hitting seemed to show a lot more going the other way.

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/stats/individual_playe...

I stand corrected. He's a 'tries to be' pull hitter. Teams would be wise to do the Ted Williams shift when he comes up. 8 of his 12 HR' have been to right or right center.

Regardless, he's not a .900 OPS player, so if we can find a team that thinks he is and will trade accordingly for him, make the deal.

DeRosa isn't going anywhere.

fontenot has 1.4 years of service time and another 2-3 wikid cheap years left.

and not many people are .900 OPS players...especially low-medium power guys like fontenot. soriano's done it twice.

[Did it again. This was a reply to #27.]

I know DeRosa isn't going anywhere. Believe me, I know it. The question is why. There are four right-handed hitters who usually bat ahead of DeRosa in the lineup. Three of them have NTCs and the other is Soto. So if you want to be more left-handed (hitting and pitching), isn't DeRosa the guy you have to trade?

I know he's good. So what? That just means you get something good, or better, for him, but something more along the lines of what you're missing.

I am pretty sure that you may be the only person that watches baseball who may believe that Fontenot and DeRosa are the same player, and have similar levels of abilities.

These are the things that DeRosa can do that Fontenot cannot (or hasn't shown the ability to).

1. Play SS
2. Play 3rd
3. Play 1st
4. Play RF
5. Play LF
6. Hit Lefties

If you have a left-handed hitting right fielder, which the Cubs are apparently looking for, and Fontenot at second, what purpose is served by DeRosa playing third and first and right and left? Those positions are taken.

As to short, according to BR, DeRosa played one game there in 2008 and one in 2007. Fontenot played one game at short in 2008 and three in 2007.

I'm not knocking DeRosa, although it's hard for people to understand that when you suggest trading someone. It's just that he's another right handed hitter on a team that (a) claims to be too right handed and (b) has passed out NTCs like candy to the other righty hitters.

If this were the Oakland A's and not the Chicago Cubs, then your recommendation to trade DeRosa would be spot on.

I think everyone with a brain thinks Murton and maybe Patterson were the throw-ins, Gallagher and Donaldson were the big losses.

"everyone with a brain"--are you excluding TCR regulars? Because I don't recall anyone on TCR lamenting the loss of Donaldson, who wasn't hitting at the time. Or Gallagher, for that matter. The consensus seemed to be that Gallagher was balanced pretty well by Gaudin, and the Cubs had gotten Harden basically for nothing. Poor Billy Beane, trying to match wits with our guy.

(Full disclosure: AZ Phil liked Donaldson the minute he saw him and rated him as the Cubs' best hitting prospect; but that was not part of the discussion after the trade, unless I missed something.)

When Harden was scheduled for a shoulder exam in October, voices on this blog agreed that if surgery was indicated, the Cubs should not renew his option. Harden's Cub career would have spanned twelve games. Shoulder surgery or not, a Harden who lost his good fastball in time for the playoffs was not what we had expected, but I don't recall anyone on TCR saying, Maybe it wasn't such a good trade after all.

Hendry should be called to task for these things, preferably before the winter meetings, because he's getting ready to trade more prospects.

What exactly should Hendry be called to task for on this one? Because he didn't rob the A's blind? You have to give up something to get something. In this case Hendry basically gave up Gallagher and the potential of Donaldson for Harden and Gaudin. He threw in two players - Murton and Patterson - who didn't have much of a place in the organization and likely won't be much of anything at the big league level.

He got a starting pitcher with an ERA+ of 252!! for 12 starts during the stretch run in a season in which the team was making a run for the playoffs. This pitcher, when healthy is one of the best in the majors, and he is still under club control for next year, unlike Sabathia, for example. In the same deal he also obtained Chad Gaudin, a long-reliever, spot starter, who is also under club control. And he should not have made this deal because Donaldson MIGHT become something 3-4 years down the road? Because he is having a good AFL season?

Here is a list of prospects that Hendry has traded away to date (I will have all of this uploaded to Wiklifield at some point). He gave up very little and got a lot for these players. This is also not mentioning the many good prospects he has fleeced from others for crappy veterans. At this point I will trust his judgment - even if Donaldson turns out to be amazing a few years from now.

Ryan Gripp
Jae Kuk Ryu
David Noyce
Gary Johnson
Derrin Ebert
Wilton Chavez
Ronald Bay
Jason Dubois
Travis Ezi
Hee Seop Choi
Matt Bruback
Bobby Hill
Jason Fransz
Mike Nannini
Felix Sanchez
Damian Jackson
Jimmy Anderson
Justin Jones
Francis Beltran
Brendan Harris
Sergio Mitre
Renyel Pinto
Ricky Nolasco
Todd Wellemyer
John Koronka
Carlos Vasquez
Jeremy Blevins
Clay Rapada
Buck Coats
Scott Moore
Rocky Cherry
Jacob Renshaw
Sean Gallagher
Josh Donaldson
Eric Patterson

That's a remarkable list. Pinto and Nolasco are the only ones on there that I even remotely miss. I'm typically not very ctitical of the deals that Hendry makes, but I do really wish we had that Pierre deal back.

There's a few guys there who have had nice season, Harris and Wellemeyer, for instance, but when you consider who those players brought back in return, I doubt there's a similarily tenured GM who could show the same, AND have the same reputation among his peers.

Nice prospect list, but they're all pre-Wilken, except for Donaldson, who is the fifth highest pick (#48) in Wilken's three drafts. Wilken knows how to draft position players, so you trade them at your own risk. Before Wilken, the Cubs could occasionally draft a pitcher but almost never a position player, so it was safe to trade a Bobby Hill or a Choi if you could get somebody else to bite. With Wilken, the game has changed. Donaldson and Vitters and Colvin and Flaherty were not drafted to be traded.

How do you build a team around guys like Hamels and Rollins and Utley and Howard except by drafting them?

This Cub team isn't assembled right. It's built for the all-star game, not the playoffs. That's why, of eight teams in the playoffs, only the Cubs fell flat on their faces and embarrassed their fans. Even the Brewers won a game.

This Cub team isn't assembled right. It's built for the all-star game, not the playoffs.

Here is the problem with this logic, along side with the rest of your thinking.

You place higher value on prospects than you do on players who are actually playing in the major leagues. Yet you claim that this team isn't built for the playoffs (which is bullshit, but that is a different discussion).

Essentially you say that this team needs to be changed, yet you believe that trading any prospect is foolish. You also have claimed in the past that a team should not be built through free agency.

So you want to the Cubs to sit on prospects that may or may not pan out (and the vast majority, on ANY team, do NOT pan out), even though you believe that this team cannot win in the playoffs.

But go ahead and believe that the Cubs have a world series team waiting to happen in the minor leagues, and I will go ahead and trust Hendry based on his track record of being very successful in the trading market and getting teams to the playoffs.

The Phillies? This is the WORST example you could have picked. How is the Joe Blanton trade ANY different than the Rich Harden trade? You DO draft players to trade - or the Phillies would not have had Blanton or Brad Lidge, and likely would not have even made the playoffs.

You need good players to win. You can draft them, sign them, or trade for them. History has shown that the playoff gods care little where they came from, just that they play well at the right time.

There is no magic formula, and certainly the Phillies didn't do anything differently than any other team. The Cubs have homegrown talent (Soto, Zambrano, Marmol, Theriot), as well as those obtained by trading prospects (Ramirez, Lee, Harden), and those signed as free agents (Dempster, Lilly, Marquis, Fukudome).

Soto was never a prospect. Out of nowhere, he had a great year in triple A and the season ended with him the starting catcher in the playoffs. It all happened too fast for Hendry to trade him, though he did find the time to trade their best minor-league lefty at the time for Jason Kendall.

Marmol, never a prospect. Theriot, nobody liked him except Piniella. (Zambrano I don't remember, it was a long time ago.)

You're right. Those guys were never prospects, they just saw a 'Help Wanted' sign at Wrigley one day, walked in filled in an application and got an invite to ST.

If it is so easy to get these great prospects away from Hendry for s song,why are Marmol and Soto still Cubs?

Now they're all-stars. My point is they didn't attract interest as minor leaguers. Soto hit .271 with 9 HRs in AA, then .253 with 4 HRs at Iowa, then .272 with 6 HRs at Iowa again. Returning for his third full year at Iowa in 2007, Soto was not even the #1 catcher. He and Koyie Hill alternated starts during the month of April. It was Hill, not Soto, who was called up and took over some of Michael Barrett's duties in early June after the dugout unpleasantness.

So, no, I don't think Hendry turned down many trade inquiries involving Soto the previous winter. By the following winter, lightning had struck: Soto had become PCL MVP and starting playoff catcher for the major-league team.

Lightning struck for Marmol in 2007 when he went to the bullpen. During that season he became a star. I will say there may have been scouts impressed with Marmol's arm at AA and AAA in 2006; but that same year, called up to the Cubs, his ERA was over six. As a Cub starter in 2006 he walked more batters than he struck out, 55-46. But to give Hendry the benefit of the doubt, he may have said no to some offers for Marmol.

I'm kind of in a bad mood with Hendry because I believe that in the next couple of weeks he's going to trade Felix Pie so that Fukudome can play center.

I will admit that Hendry has done a pretty good job of hanging on to Pie and Rich Hill, especially Hill, who was really hot a couple of seasons ago.

yet hendry somehow had the knowledge to keep these "surprises" on the 40-man roster even though they weren't worth having before they became lightning-in-a-bottle.

...somehow...

I will admit that Hendry has done a pretty good job of hanging on to Pie and Rich Hill, especially Hill, who was really hot a couple of seasons ago.

Wouldn't Pie and Hill be exhibits #1 and #2 on why Hendry SHOULD trade prospects when they are hot?

I see you conveniently ignored my point about the Phillies trading prospects for key pieces of their championship team. That one flew right by you didn't it? Do you think Phillies fans are crying about not having Mike Costanzo's 27 HRs in AA instead of Brad Lidge?

I'd rather get a key piece to win now and let Pie suck elsewhere.

Wisc, I never heard of Mike Costanzo until you mentioned him but he doesn't look like a great prospect. There's a line out the door of sluggers trying to grab one of the scarce jobs for first basemen in the majors. I didn't complain when the Cubs let Dopirak go and though I'm starting to like Jake Fox, Hendry can trade him any old day, it's fine with me, since he's also mainly a first baseman.

When you put up ridiculous numbers in every category, like Hoffpauir, that's a little different, although Hoffpauir could really use some outfield skills.

Costanzo is a .265 hitter in the minors. It would be nice if he could hit homers lefthanded while playing third in the majors, but he had 34 errors there in 2007. Then they traded him. The next year, the majority of his starts were at first, DH or (something new) catcher.

I am going to go out on a limb and say he was generally considered a better prospect headed into 2008 than Soto was headed into 2007.

Do some research man. Costanzo is currently the 6th ranked prospect in the entire Astro's organization after the Lidge trade. The Phillies traded Adrian Cardenas - their 2nd rated prospect according to BA, Josh Outman their 4th ranked prospect, AND Mathew Spencer their 2007 3rd round draft pick for Joe Blanton.

That's how it works. And you know what, maybe 1 of the 4 will even turn into something. And it's ok if any of them do, the Phillies won - which is the point of baseball.

Also, I've never gotten the fascination with Pie. He is basically Corey Patterson with less stealing ability and less HR ability. Good defensive centerfielders who strike out a lot are a dime a dozen. If Hendry can get high value for him to help us win now, I say trade him.

pie's got CF speed and legwork...enough arm to pull RF if desired.

he's still young and his wrists/hands are VERY fast. that's not something you can teach, though you can bring it out tweaking your approach. when you have a guy with his frame who can swing a bat as hard/fast as he does through the zone (think: soriano) you got something very special for a starting point.

unfortunately, he's not one to sit around for a full selection of pitches looking to walk and his swing accuracy isn't mlb-strong yet (if ever).

basically, if you want a raw piece of clay to mold into a hitter...pie's some "good clay." doesn't guarantee anything, though...

I fully understand why Pie is considered a prospect. I just think if your payroll is what the Cubs payroll is, there is no need to sit on a prospect like this if you can trade his potential for someone you know can play well at the big league level now.

You probably don't want to hear a discussion of tools, but they're important, because if you have them you will keep getting second and third chances until you're Corey Patterson's age. Even a Corey Patterson can usually learn to hit by the age of 27. You can't teach a guy to run and catch and throw. Felix, like a cat, has many lives remaining, although probably only one (or none) with the Cubs.

"Good defensive centerfielders who strike out a lot" are not a dime a dozen, they're in demand if they have power--like Chris Young or Adam Jones. Pie is a big kid and getting bigger. He's what you're always looking for.

If all you can do is play first and maybe a little left field, good luck to you. A first baseman has to be the best hitter on the team, since anybody can catch most throws, even a Fielder or a Howard.

Even granting for the sake of argument that Costanzo can hit well enough to play first in the majors, Ryan Howard just turned 29 and is in, or entering, his prime. The Cubs don't have any young sluggers except Aramis (who is 30 and a half) and Soto. Soto certainly makes Welington Castillo tradeable. Vitters is not tradeable, though, because it may not be long before Ramirez has to get in the line for a first base or DH job. Lee, Soriano and Fukudome are getting to an age where you would like to trade them and go younger, at least in a world without NTCs.

Phil - correction, Pie is not what I am always looking for, he's what YOU are always looking for. If I have learned anything in reading your posts it is that you are in love with minor leaguers who have any sort of potential, and dislike veterans. Any prospect that you like you argue they are big, fast, are growing, will only get better, have tools, etc. Any prospect you don't like you simply say that they are one dimensional, play the wrong position, are too old, etc. It's becoming a tired song.

In your world a team trades away all stars in their prime for prospects. The team also plays the prospects instead of any veterans. You just keep doing this. If the team sucks, the prospects are just learning and you should stick with them. If you lose the next year, repeat. If the players happen to all pan out (unlikely) and happen to gell in the same year, you might win. If the Cubs had done what you suggested for 2007 and 2008 they would have never even made the playoffs, and if they do what you suggest now they won't make them anytime soon.

You can have Chris Young and his .240 average. And Young is BETTER than Pie. By age 22 he had 3 seasons of more than 20 homeruns and 4 seasons of more than 20 SBs in the minors. Pie has had 0 and 1 respectively.

Young was a .266 hitter in five years in the minors, so I'm not surprised by his hitting .240 in the majors. Pie's minor league average over seven seasons is .299, which is still not very good.

I didn't say I like Pie as a hitter, I like him as a prospect. And I didn't say I liked Chris Young, just that he strikes out a lot and is nevertheless in demand, i.e., not a dime a dozen.

Pie looked awful, and I certainly said so, in early 2008, but he was swinging the bat okay in September.

Fukudome, who will probably take Pie's place this season, had these numbers in the second half: .217/.314/.326, 639 OPS.

If I liked the current group of Cub veterans as much as you do, I probably wouldn't worry as much about prospects. I don't care for free agents, it's true.

Jones hit 40 HR's in the minors. Young, as I recall was a 30/30 guy. It doesn't make any sense to compare them. May as well compare Pie to Willie Mays and Joe Dimagiio.

Nationals wanted Marmol for Ryan Church before the 2007 season...Soto was added to the Cubs 40-man roster in November 2004 which many people thought was strange at the time." Obviously the Cubs thought something of him....

again, Teahen suffered a season ending shoulder surgery in 2006. He hasn't been the same since. His OPS+ since then has dropped from

2006 -122
2007 -98
2008 -91

so I don't think the issue is his swing, it's his shoulder. How many hitters have made it back to normal strength after a shoulder injury? I can't think of any off of the top of my head, and I keep thinking of

Bagwell
Rolen
Sheffield
Morgan Ensberg
Sexson

who haven't. I wouldn't give up more than one of Fontenot or Cedeno for him and I wouldn't even do that unless KC is taking on at least half of his contract. I'd just assume stick Edmonds out in RF if he'll come back at a cheaper contract to at least just play against righties...Reed Johnson can cover the lefties since Fukudome hits lefties just as well/poorly as righties.

To even consider giving up Marshall for that guy would make Hendry certifiably nuts - enough raiding our meager cupboard bare.

Who would ride on Z's back if Fontegod were no longer here?

Z has enough gnomes on his back w/o having to think of Fontenot too.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081122&c...

no really...

should be fine for spring training.

Billingsley broke his fibula and they had to put a plate with screws to align the fracture.

This usually means his injury is in the realm of ankle fractures as the fibula is the bone on the outside of the ankle. If the fibula breaks higher up the leg it usually doesn't need surgery as up higher it's function is mostly for muscle attachments, but lower near the ankle it forms an important component of the ankle joint. Fibula fractures usually take 6 weeks to heal but add another 6 weeks to get the ankle joint to regain function from stiffness. More proximally in the leg, the larger tibia is the major weight bearing bone, so when it's broken the treatment usually keys on treating the tibia (the fibula fracture usually lines up once the tibia fracture is properly aligned) and tibia fractures take longer to heal, often 3-6 months or longer.

From end-November to spring training is only 3 months (albeit the longest 3 months of the year) so I'd say it's more likely that Billingsley will not be up to full speed to start spring training at the end of February. Also the hardware can be bothersome even after the fracture has healed since there isn't much tissue to pad things between the skin and the plate. The plate/screws can be removed with a 2nd surgery, that probably won't be an option until a minimum of 6 months after the fracture is healed, so that might be a consideration for him in the 2009 offseason.

He should have lost nlds game 2 instead of incurring the wrath of the baseball gods.

if I were Ned Coletti, I'd hire some security guards for Kuroda.
==============
It is not known if Billingsley's injury will impact the Dodgers' offseason restocking plans. They already have suffered free-agent departures of pitchers Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, Greg Maddux, Chan Ho Park, Joe Beimel and Jason Johnson. The only pitcher in the Dodgers' starting rotation for the entire 2008 season that is still on the roster and healthy is Hiroki Kuroda.

(from the mlb link in post #21)

you do not trade marshall unless you are getting
a proven power hitting r-fielder.

I don't think the Royals would give up Teahen for Marshall. What do the Cubs want with Teahen anyways?

Would Cedeno for Mark Teahen be fair or is it lopsided?

Before those anti-Marquis fans run him out of Chicago on a rail, tell me who goes into the 5th spot of the rotation and: pitches 175+ innings, 30 starts, ERA < 4.75, and team wins at least half his starts, has 11-12 wins. Who? Marshall? We HOPE so. Smardzija? Based on what? Unless the Cubs get Peavy, Randy Johnson then I don't see a better rotation than Z, Dempster, Lilly, Harden, and Marquis.

Also, getting Teahen is great if all it costs is some combination of Cedeno, Fontenot, Hoffpauir, and Wuertz/Hart. Marshall part of the deal.......hell, no.

i would say wuertz and cedeno

Submitted by George Altman on Sat, 11/22/2008 - 10:21pm.

Before those anti-Marquis fans run him out of Chicago on a rail, tell me who goes into the 5th spot of the rotation and: pitches 175+ innings, 30 starts, ERA < 4.75, and team wins at least half his starts, has 11-12 wins. Who? Marshall? We HOPE so. Smardzija? Based on what? Unless the Cubs get Peavy, Randy Johnson then I don't see a better rotation than Z, Dempster, Lilly, Harden, and Marquis.

==========================

GEORGE: I agree that Jason Marquis is a reliable 5th starter, but if you combine what the 11 Cubs players already signed for 2009 will be getting ($121M+), and what the six arbitration eligible players will probably get if all are tendered & offered arbitration (at least $12.5M aggregate, with Kevin Gregg likely to get at least $5M, Chad Gaudin and Reed Johnson $2M each, Neal Cotts $1.5M, Michael Wuertz about $1.25M, and Ronny Cedeno at least $750K), and what the eight auto-renewal players who are needed to fill-out the 25-man roster will get ($400K MLB minimum salary in 2009, so about $3.5M aggregate for the eight auto-renewal guys), the Cubs are going to have a payroll of somewhere around $137M+ even if they don't make another move. So one of Hendry's primary goals almost certainly has got to be trading Jason Marquis and hoping another club (perhaps the Yankees if the can't sign all the starters they feel they need) will acquire Marquis and take back most or all of his $9.875M 2009 salary so that the near-$10M can be re-directed to an established lefthanded hitting outfielder and back-up catcher.

Depending on what Jim Hendry's 2009 payroll budget is, some of the arbitration-eligible guys might have to get non-tendered on 12/12 (or traded before 12/12), too.

Phil, I agree with your point.......it should would help to know what the Cubs payroll budget is for 2009. I believe if the Cubs are patient, they will get someone (Yankees would be one) to take Marquis' full salary. This would make it all the more important not to include Marshall or Samardzija in a deal unless it was for a blue-chip LH hitting Rf or B. Roberts to play 2B.

Speaking of Hendry, when the Cubs gave Dempster 4/52, wasn't Hendry, as usual, bidding against himself?

Didn't he offer Dempster those terms before the bidding started? And then when no other team made an offer, Hendry let the original offer stand?

He really is a nice guy.

And you know that how?

Most people believe that the 4/52 is a relative steal for Dempster.

Carlos Silva essentially got the same deal.

There were 12 pitchers in 2008 that already earned more than the $13 million average of Dempster's contract:

Randy Johnson, $15 million
Mike Hampton, $15 million
Tim Hudson, $15 million
John Smoltz, $14 million
Mark Buerhle, $14 million
Andy Pettite, $16 million
A.J. Burnett, $13 million
Carlos Zambrano, $16 million
Roy Oswalt, $13 million
Jason Schmidt, $15 million
Johann Santana, $16 million
Barry Zito, $14 million

common consensus is if you wait til jan/feb that dumpster deal is gonna look like steal money-wise.

guys like burnett and lowe are already looking higher $$ demands without even bringing cc/sheets/etc. into the mix.

On the open market Dempster would have gotten a 4 year $60 million deal.

That's basically what Hendry said, Neal. But then, Hendry would say that.

Hendry added that there were "no doubts in any of our minds that Ryan would've exceeded this deal on the streets three or four weeks from now, the way the market is for starting pitching."

My question was simply, if nobody else made an offer for Dempster, how does Hendry know he didn't overpay?

Dempster himself indicates that nobody else made a bid in the five days or so that he was free to receive offers:

"Was there more money on the open market? I'm sure there probably was. Maybe there was five years. That's a question that I'll never be able to answer."

Of course he doesn't know for 100% sure that he didn't overpay, but are you really arguing this? With guys like Barry Zito sitting on $126 million, you're worried about Ryan Dempster's contract?

I'm pretty sure Hendry wasn't worried about other teams when he made his offer. He probably wanted to make an offer that he felt was fair and that he was comfortable with. Dempster accepted that offer without waiting to field other offers because a) he felt it was fair, and b) he wanted to stay in Chicago.

The fact that Hendry doesn't absolutely know some other team would have offered 5 - $60m is completely irrelevant.

The problem here is that VA Phil thinks that Hendry should not only be omniscient, but he should also have a time machine. This is the way that VA Phil thinks you should deal with a FA. Correct me if I am wrong.

1. Offer him the major league minimum salary until some team offers him more.

2. Assuming that he will still talk to you, unlikely after #1, after another team offers him a contract that is more years and money than you're willing to commit to, offer him a contract for less years and money, then see what happens.

3. After he has signed a FA contract with the New York Mets for 4 years and $61 million dollars, use your Wayback Machine to go back in time to November 18th and offer him a 3 year $30 million contract.

4. Eventually settle on a 4 year $48 million deal, before the Mets make an offer.

You've got to take what you know into account. Pitchers like Llhose and Silva are making in excess of $10 million annually. Teams that strike out on Sabathia and Llowe are going to then turn their attention, and a large portion of the money they've slotted for the off-season to Burnett and Dempster.

On this crazy thing called the internet, there's no professional baseball analyst or reporter suggesting that Dempster robbed the Cubs. Don't you find that curious?

I didn't say the Cubs overpaid for Dempster. I am curious whether he would have received other offers. Apparently he didn't receive any offers in the five days after he put a sign in the window, Open for Business.

Here are what I think are facts:

1) Dempster risked his Cub offer--since the Cubs were negotiating for Peavy at the time and could have changed their mind--in order to test the market.

2) So he tested the market. But when he stuck his toe in, the water was cold.

3) After five days, he grabbed the Cub offer, which Hendry had kept warm for him.

If these are the facts, and reporters don't find them interesting enough to mention, that's between them and their bartenders.

Your #2 is not a fact.

#2 should read: His agents fielded some calls, and got an idea what teams would be interested in him, but also that he was considered a backup plan to some other players, namely Lowe. Who is expected to command $16 to $18 million if he goes to the higest bidder. The agent then reasoned "If Lowe makes $17 million, my guy should be able to get about $14 to $15 million if he goes mercenary. I think I can get the Cubs up to $13 million and four years, which is what my client prefers, so I will work on that."

Your number 3 also probably is not correct. Hendry probably made an initial offer of around 3 years and $38 million.

Starting pitchers who make 10+ million a year (based on 2008 salaries), thus making me comfortable with the Dumpster 13 million for four years..

Jake Westbrook 10m
Matt Morris 10.03m
Kevin Millwood 10.3m
Vicente Padilla 11m
Carl Pavano 11m
Gil Meche 11.4m
Jon Garland 12m
AJ Burnett 13.2m
Barry Zito 14.5m
Jason Schmidt 15.2m
Tim Hudson 15.5m
Mike Hampton 16m

http://www.sfgate.com/webdb/mlbpay/?appSession=636...

Their salaries for just 2008, so some of these could be in escelating contracts in their contract year, but still. I'm okay with 13m for 4 years with Dump. Remember Marquis made 6.375m, i'd rather have one Dumpster than two marquis...

This is all a well though out plan except for the fact that Jim Hendry is fresh out of flux capacitors and Doc Emmet Brown is nowhere to be found.

found this blog writeup bandying possible trade scenerios between the Cubs and Royals (mentioning Teahen/DeJesus vs Pie/Cedeno/Fontenot, but not discussing Marshall).

Color me unimpressed with Tea-bad and marginally interested in DeJesus. Hopefully Hendry finds another trade partner.

http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/2008/11/teahen-rumo...

The stats say that DeJesus isn't a very good centerfielder or baserunner. My experience watching him live was that he had trouble reading fly balls to left field, but that's left field and that was in Arizona. Based on that, I can agree with the marginal interest comment. He'd most likely wind up as a platoon with Johnson in center, and be taken out late for defense.

I'm sure I was reading an article in Oakland this summer that Beane stated " he wouldnt have made the deal if Donaldson wasnt in the deal". Hendry made the right deal and give the Cubs credit for drafting him which was key in making the deal and getting Harden. Perhaps we can keep drafting these type players and having them ready for future deals.

A "new stats" look at Mussina and the HoF debate:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/24/sports/baseball/...

Furcal offered 4/48 from A's, Mets want him to play 2b via Rotoworld...

That 4/48 has bad contract written all over it.

Unless they give him Tejada's old locker with his "stuff " in it.

Didn't Tejada also put together about five seasons without missing a game? If Furcal could do that, I'd be closer to the bandwagon on signing him.

The most seasons in a row Furcal has put together without missing significant time is 2.

MLBTraderumors says the Giants signed Renteria. That takes them out of the Furcal, running, I imagine.

2 yrs. for $18M.

they just love them some old shortstops don't they?

Let me correct that for you...

"they just love them some old [players] don't they?"

The question is, do they love old first basemen?

Derrek Lee lives in Sacramento, not far from SF.

The Internet source for accuracy: MLBTR!

do they still just "steal" other people's news leads or do they do a better job of actually sharing where they "stole" their headlines from?

back in the day the mlbtr dude had like 100 personal sources in baseball...i mean, some good users feeding him outside news and other people's writing/scoops to take credit for.

it's legit either way, WFAN broke it earlier this afternoon.

...and now the story is being reported as false via the SF Chron...go figure.

No they had a radio source on there. But the headline has now changed from "Giants Sign Edgar Renteria" to "Giants Sign Edgar Renteria?".

Now that's journalism.

"Giants Sign: Edgar Renteria"
"Giants Sign Edgar, Renteria?"
"Giants! Sign Edgar Renteria!"

"Insane Gig: Rearranged Tits!"

MLBTR just picked up the WFAN story, they didn't report anything themselves.

He's pretty much become another rotoworld, just aggregating rumors from places to be considered more "legitimate" news sources. I think he gets a lot of tips and stuff, but he rarely goes forward with them anymore.

cubstraderumors.com has a nice ring to it?

business plan

1. register domain name

2. make up stories with "sources close to the situation"

3. watch readership grow

4. stop making up stories and just summarize the daily newspapers and radios

5. Make money

And that's different from TCR how?

; )

I never made up a story....just Chad that one time.

Before Chad reacts (if he does), all of us who get the reference know that Rob G is kidding.

thanks for killing any chance i had of making a joke.

My boss has a friend who works for Iggy Pop. His friend says that Iggy is irrelevant.

I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who would attempt to poison and destroy me.

Don't make me go medieval on yo ass.

that quote was great in 1994....

I'm looking forward to a Kahuna Burger reference...

At the very least you could put Chad in charge of that new site, and he would finally have a legitimate place to voice out... Well maybe not.

All the best stuff came out in the nineties.

this man speaks the truth.

Eddie Veder thirds.

?

what's your problem tonight?

You can't touch this.

CubsTradeRumors.com is already owned by some guy in Turkey. The Cubs of Chicago in the America are big with the peeps in Turkey.

right now unfortunately, maybe I'll have some time tonight to finish a piece.

But if you want to talk minors, good discussion at minorleagueball

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/11/22/667959/c...

Sickels Top 20 should be coming out soon

X
  • Sign in with Twitter