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SOUTHERN LEAGUE (AA) CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES GAME 3 THREAD (JAXX LEAD BEST-OF-FIVE SERIES 1-0) [PARACHAT] WEST TENN DIAMOND JAXX (83-56) @ JACKSONVILLE SUNS (79-61) PRINGLES PARK, 6:35 pm CDT, RADIO: Dixie 1310 WDXI TV: Internet Video Feed
The Suns took Game 2 by a score of 1-0 in a terribly umpired game to level the series. Now the Jaxx are back home, where they'll stay until this series is over and the Championship decided. Tonight Ricky Nolasco takes the ball in an absolutely pivotal game, and the teams lineup so...
Ricky Nolasco, RHP
14-3, 2.89 ERA
173/46 K/BB, 13 HR in 161.2 IP
William Juarez, RHP
11-3, 2.63 ERA
129/59 K/BB, 3 HR in 136.2 IP
CF Todd Donovan LF #Dwaine Bacon
2B Tony Abreu 2B *Eric Patterson
RF *Jon Weber 3B Casey McGehee
3B Andy LaRoche 1B #Matt Craig
1B *James Loney RF Brandon Sing
C Russ Martin CF *Buck Coats
SS Joel Guzman SS Carlos Rojas
LF Justin Ruggiano C Casey Kopitze
P William Juarez P Ricky Nolasco
Go Jaxx!
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Comments

Damn, 8-1.

Macias, 2B
Perez, SS
Lee, 1B
Garciaparra, 3B
Burnitz, RF
Murton, LF
Patterson, CF
Blanco, C
Maddux, P

Eckstein, SS
Edmonds, CF
Pujols, 1B
Walker, RF
Sanders, LF
Grudzielanek, 2B
Nunez, 3B
Diaz, C
Mulder, P

Macias, 2B
Perez, SS
Lee, 1B
Garciaparra, 3B
Burnitz, RF
Murton, LF
Patterson, CF
Blanco, C
Maddux, P

If I were Maddux I would be pissed. How is he suppose to win this one.

yesterday the team was going to lose until Hairston had his hissy fit and got thrown out. Murton came in and made the difference with his hit following Rush's and hence the team took the lead 4-3 that inning.

today we get the 1-2 punch of MaciaSS-Neifi.

Hairston out, Walker out.

Why doesn''t dusty play this hand out to it's dustbuster logical conclusion and move CPat to the 3 spot? (just kidding)

This is one of the ugliest lineups we've seen since the Mets series.

This is the second start in a row for Maddux with a poor starting lineup. Macias and Perez in the 1, 2 spots?

Anyone ever hear of Matt Murton?

You cannot be serious.

bottom 2nd...

Burnitz singles, Murton (you'd expect less?) singles...
CPat sac bunt for...Blanco?

Why are the 5-6 hitters better than the top of the order?

they run themselves out of the 2nd and 3rd with a grounder that gets Burnitz thrown out at home.

Dumb team with less than 2 outs and men in scoring position. They don't get it. They can't execute it. We watch and suffer.

on Fox, they are talking about the Cubs not being able to eliminate mistakes, now that's an understatement.

No runs. No Brains.

It over, it's all over.

That's what happens with they play on the Sabbath! The game should have started after sundown.

It will be interesting to see if any of these fellas getting the call to the show. I'd like to see my guy, Adam Greenberg for sure.

It looks like a typical Cub line score, the other team gets more runs and fewer hits. Even apprentice Cubs got their priorities bass ackwards.

Suns 3 Jaxx 1

Jacksonville
0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 3 4 1
West Tenn
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 7 0

Hendry likes Greenberg and Cpat being brutal I think its a 75% chance we'll see Greenberg up here. Other than that Aardsma is the only other member of the team who might get a call up.

For an interesting article that shows that without Derek Lee, the Cubs would have finished behind Pittsburgh, check out Jim Click's article on Baseball Prospectus explaining why Derek was the best player in NL this season.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php...

Dusty believes in BA, not having gotten the memomorandum on OBP, so that is why Macias and Neifi will hit first and second whose BA are .269 and .279 respectively (which are also pretty much what their OBP is as well.)

The NL MVP is Andruw Jones. I have thought that since June. They would be in last w/o him. There is no way this team is worse than PIT w/o Dlee.

How is Neifi supposed to hit into a DP when Big Z (the stud) doubles to lead off? He may have just let the Cards back in, but man, can he ever hit.

damn, those rookies cant succeed under pressure.

HR Murton, Cubs up.

The NL MVP is Andruw Jones

Give me a break. The reason for their success has been Chipper/Furcal and Giles.

What happened to this site? It's like visiting New Orleans lately.

For the record, with the Cubs win today over the Cardinals they remain on track for an 82-80 finish.

They project to:

2-1 vs Milwaukee
2-0 vs Pittsburgh
4-3 vs Houston

8-4 just by playing at the same mediocre level they have all year.

Oh yeah, for those interested, the Cubs have adjusted their rotation to give Greg Maddux 3 more starts and a chance at a 15 win season if he wins them all.

The NL MVP is Andruw Jones

Have you seen the numbers comparing the big three (Pujols, Lee, Jones)? Jones is nowhere near the level of Pujols or Lee. I compared the three in a comment a couple of weeks ago on Baseball Musings. The numbers have changed slightly, but they still hold true. Here they are:

Jones is having an impressive season...but he still only hitting .270/.356/.588.

Lee: .346/.429/.681
Pujols: .329/.425/.610

Imagine if Lee actually had runners on base in front of him.

Runners on:
Lee: 195 AB - .323/.434/.615
Pujols: 224 AB - .313/.425/.603
Jones: 245 AB - .257/.361/.510

RISP:
Lee: 111 AB - .351/.487/.712
Pujols: 118 AB - .331/.494/.585
Jones: 152 AB - .224/.340/.395

Jones is having a great season, but he is nowhere close to Lee or Pujols.

Double-A West Tenn's season is over. Carlos Marmol gave up two runs on two hits over 5 2/3 innings, but West Tenn lost to Jacksonville, 3-1, in the deciding Game 4 of the Southern League championship series on Saturday. The Jacksonville Suns won the best-of-five series, 3-1.

Brandon Sing was 3-for-4 with two doubles and drove in the Diamond Jaxx's only run. Casey McGehee was 1-for-4 with a double and scored a run.

"We couldn't get the big hit," West Tenn outfielder Adam Greenberg said. "We had runners in scoring position at times. They seemed to get the big hit when they needed it. We had our chances and played hard. We just didn't win."

Winning pitcher Justin Orenduff, pitching on 11 days' rest, gave up seven hits over 5 1/3 innings and struck out seven.

Dave,

MVP stands for the Most Valuable Player not the best player. If it was the POY than yes Jones would be 3rd. But, If you take D-lee off the Cubs they still suck. Take Pujols off the Cards and you still Carpenter, Mulder, Morris and that pen, guys in the line-up like Edmounds and Walker and they probably are still in the division race. Take Jones off the Braves this year and you probably have a 75-win team. That is the guy for me who is most valuable. If I voted for the NL MVP here is what my ballot would look like

1. Jones
2. Cabrerra
3. Pujols
4. Ensberg
5. Dlee
6. Abreu
7. Guillen
8. Carpenter
9. Delgado
10. Peavy

You would place four guys ahead of DLee? Are you serious?

As for the Braves - ever heard of people like Furcal, Chipper Jones, Francoeur, Giles, Smoltz, Hudson, Jorge Sosa, Mike Hampton, etc?

The Cubs don't have anything close to that.

Cabrera and Ensberg ahead of Lee? The award is not for a really good player on a good team. The award is the most valuable player. And Lee is that guy. You cannot take away from what Lee has done and what Lee has meant to this team simply because the Cubs may not finish over .500.

Imagine where the Cubs would be without Dlee - behind the Pirates, as a recent comment pointed out.

i know i'm "old school" but i still like to look at runs scored and runs batted in. add the defense and you have to give the mvp to andruw jones.

i'm pretty confident that david aardsma will be dealt over the winter. that said, he needs some mlb time to convince other gm's he's still a solid prospect.

i didn't see today's game because i was at the indianapolis colts game. did cpat look good at the plate today? i saw the 2 hits in the box score...

i saw where cesar isturis had season ending surgery. any chance the dodgers will make a run at nefi? i'm guessing nomar is a dodger next year.

Dave,

The MVP in my opinion is a combo of the one player that if you take off the team they go from first to worst and stats. Yes, Carberra is more valuable to the Marlins than Dlee is to the Cubs. Where would the Marlins be w/o him? not in the playoff race. You simply can't be that valuable if your team has a losing record. If it was the POY than Lee would deserve it but its not. Last I checked Carberra was more than a really good player he is on pace for a plaque in Cooperstown. The Cubs should save All the money they can for the 09 or 10 off-season so they can sign him.

i know i'm "old school" but i still like to look at runs scored and runs batted in. add the defense and you have to give the mvp to andruw jones.

Jones: 92 runs, 125 RBI
Lee: 113 runs, 102 RBI

Both are equally as good defensively at their positions. Some (many) would say that Jones is relatively overrated in CF, and the defensive stats that exist would support this argument.

Now when you factor in the fact that Jones has had significantly more opportunities with RISP (50 more at-bats) and the fact that Lee has been significantly better than Jones in these conditions, it looks like Lee is still more valuable.

"As for the Braves - ever heard of people like Furcal, Chipper Jones, Francoeur, Giles, Smoltz, Hudson, Jorge Sosa, Mike Hampton, etc?"

Let's see Chipper, Hampton, and Hudson have missed significant time this year. Furcal has only had a so-so year. Smoltz has been good and has anchored that staff. Jorge Sosa is at best a no.3 starter. Giles and Francouer are nice hitters but they wont carry a team. Jones carried that team on his back to get them where they are while playing the 2nd hardest position to defend on the field and defending it very well. As good as Dlee is with the glove D is not as imporant out of 1b as it is CF. Add the fact he was the first guy in the post-roids era to hit 50 dingers out of a non-power position and he more VALUE as a player than Dlee. If the Braves lost Jones there is only three guys close that can do what Jones could do at CF and they are Beltran, Edmounds, and a healthy Griffey. If Dlee were to annouce he is retiring at the end of the year they could easily replace him. They could go out and sign Paul Konerko, re-up Nomar to play 3rd and play Ram at 1b. or trade for a guy like Dunn, Helton, a HEALTHY Thome, Delgado (if reports FLA might trade him are true). and not miss that much. That does not even include guys who will not be traded like Tex, Ortiz, Sexson, Pujols that could do a better job than Lee.

If the Braves lost Jones there is only three guys close that can do what Jones could do at CF and they are Beltran, Edmounds, and a healthy Griffey.

Okay...the more you write the less I understand. You think Beltran can do close to what Jones has done this year? Have you seen Beltran's numbers? Here they are, in case you have not seen them:
.272/.338/.423 15 HR, 69 RBI. Those are closer to Korey numbers than Andruw Jones.

There is no doubt that Jones plays a more difficult position to fill. I agree with you there. But that that is not a reason to vote for a player for MVP.

And none of those plaers that mentioned can replace the production that Lee has had this year. And that you even mention something like "a HEALTHY Thome" is funny. Do you really think there is such a thing at this point? And none of those players could hit .340, except for Helton. And he sure could not do it away from Colorado!

That does not even include guys who will not be traded like Tex, Ortiz, Sexson, Pujols that could do a better job than Lee.

Only Pujols has come even close to doing what Lee has done this year. And Pujols and Lee have almost identical numbers. Ortiz's numbers have been close, not definitely not better. Do you really think that Tex or Sexson could put up better numbers that what Lee has done this year? You have to be joking.

The MVP in my opinion is a combo of the one player that if you take off the team they go from first to worst and stats. Yes, Carberra is more valuable to the Marlins than Dlee is to the Cubs. Where would the Marlins be w/o him? not in the playoff race.

If this is true...then how is it possible that there are two different teams with two people in your top ten MVP list?

You continue to argue that it is the one player that a team could not afford to lose. But this argument is thrown out the window when you include multiple people from the same team.

hey "If you take D-lee off the Cubs they still suck" morons

most valuable player means the person that is the most important to their team. the person that contributes the most marginal wins. that person is derrek lee.

would you like to explain to me how lee is supposed to be punished for playing on a team with a bad bullpen, inconsistent starters and bad hitters other than him and a few others?

he added more wins to the cubs than pujols did to the cards or andruw did for the braves (that last one is particularly insane....whoever votes for andruw over lee or pujols should have their vote taken away)

this is not a "homer" view also....mcgwire should have won the award over sosa in 1998, and lee should win it over pujols this year.

most valuable player means who gives his team the most wins, agreed....but that has nothing to do with how many games his team wins. the cubs without lee would have finished in last in the central. that's all you need to know.

One more post...to follow up with what Green Lantern said.

Hardball Times lists win shares:
Pujols - 36
Lee - 35
Jones - 25

There are several other people in between Lee and Jones, but Brian Giles (tied with A-Rod) is number 3 with 31.

And then we can look at Runs Created:

Again, Lee (138) and Pujols (132) are running away from the pack, with Jones (89) far behind.

So Lee and Pujols are clearly ahead of the pack, and it should be clear that it is a two man race for MVP. Jones is no where near to the production and value that Pujols and Lee create.

"Do you really think that Tex or Sexson could put up better numbers that what Lee has done this year? You have to be joking."

Sexson: 261/364/542/906 with 37 HR and 110 RBI
Lee: 341/423/678/1.101 with 44 hr and 102 RBI

despite playing in an airport Sexson only has 7 hr less than Lee and more RBI's. Also sexson has a higher differnce in OBP that his is 103 points higher than his average while Lee has 82. The only seperated by 95 points in OPS that probably has to do with balls sexson hits in Safeco that are FO and the same struck ball for Lee is a HR. If Sexson were too be are 1st baseman next year he would put up numbers that would be good enough that people would not be complaning about wanting Lee back that is all I was trying to say. Do you really think Dlee will hit 340 next year? For all we know he could 21st century speak for Roger Maris.

"If this is true...then how is it possible that there are two different teams with two people in your top ten MVP list?"

If you look at FLA Carbera and Delgado are their offense so if they lose one they would be screwed. In the WS we saw that Carpenter is very valuable for STL.

"You think Beltran can do close to what Jones has done this year? Have you seen Beltran's numbers? "

Beltran circa 2004 playoffs showed he could be that kinda of player. Even with how bad this year he has been for him I'm sure most teams would want that kinda production out of CF. That adds to Jones value that guys that do near what he can do are few and far between.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/2005ATL-...

Can Chifan read me the WARP1 for Jones, Giles and Furcal?

Well, at least discussing Lee v. Pujols v. Jones v. Cabrera for MVP is better than beating the dead horse of Dusty's logic (or lack there-of) regarding line-ups. Frankly, if Lee does not get it, it definitely should be Pujols who has carried the Cardinals offensively with Rolen going down and with Edmonds starting down his decline curve and Walker near his end. Pujols and Edmonds are the only two guys in that line-up that frighten you, and Pujols frightens me a lot more than Edmonds does. I will say Jones was probably Atlanta's most important player in June, when Chipper was out. But since the All-star break they have had a whole bevy of players (Furcal, Marcus Giles, Francoer, etc.) who helped them take control of their division.

I would say that this arguement is divided between those who like to rely on the old statistics (particularly RBI) and those of us familiar with more arcane sabermetrics such as Runs Created, VORP, Wins share, etc. For those who like RBI, I hope you see that it, like the related counting stat of runs, and like wins for pitchers, it is a very team related stat. The Cardinals and Braves are both near the top of the league in OBP and, as it has been noted, I think (they keep bouncing from between 13th to 11th), the Cubs are 13th in a sixteen team league despite leading the league in BA. Hence, it should not be surprising that Pujols and Jones have more RBIs then Lee.

"Can Chifan read me the WARP1 for Jones, Giles and Furcal?"

Dave,

I like sabermetrics as much as the next guy but when you get into things like WARP1 it is a little too much. Jones got his team to a division title and Lee for all his efforts is on a 4th place team. That says who is more VALUABLE. Like I said before this is not for POY if it were that would be Lee. It is for MVP and Jones means more to the Braves then Lee means to the Cubs.

>It is for MVP and Jones means more to the Braves then Lee means to the Cubs.
>

Based on what? Without Lee the Cubs are in last place and probably only win 60 games this year.

Without Jones the Braves are still in, what, 3rd place? Which would put them in the wild-card race anyway. The logical deduction is not there as to why Jones is "more valuable"...because he's on a better team? At best this is a chicken-egg argument. At worst, you have begun with a conclusion and are trying to build supports to justify it.

Jones got his team to a division title and Lee for all his efforts is on a 4th place team.

I am sorry, but this is foolish. Jones did not get his team to a division title. And Lee did not get his team to 4th place. The Braves, as a team, finished first. Not Andruw Jones.

I like sabermetrics as much as the next guy but when you get into things like WARP1 it is a little too much.

First, I didn't ask you to look VORP - Ienpw did.

Second, how is it too much? Sabermetrics are the best way to compare the relative worth of a player. You say that Jones has been more valuable to the Braves, but almost every statistic disagrees with you.

Jones got his team to a division title and Lee for all his efforts is on a 4th place team.

Would that make Scott Seabol a better candidate than Derrek Lee because his efforts got the Cardinals the best record in the league?

If you want to argue the team point, then why not place Furcal and Giles up with Jones? Truly the real reason the Braves have gone on a great run the last couple of months is because of Jones. Chipper Jones that is.

Do you really think Dlee will hit 340 next year? For all we know he could 21st century speak for Roger Maris.

No, but this is about the player who was most valuable for six months in 2005. Lee's value this year will be very clear in 2006, when the Cubs drop 2-3 wins right off the bat simply because Lee probably isn't going to hit like Pujols again.

By the way, the "airport" logic to compare Sexson favorably with Lee, defend Soriano as a hidden stud, etc., gets worse every time. Did the airport make Sexson strike out 60 more times than Lee with the same amount of walks? Did the airport make Sexson's defense worse than Lee's? Did the airport restrict Sexson to two SB attempts, whereas Lee's over 80%?

Did the airport result in Sexson having a (park-adjusted) EQA 50 points lower than Lee's?

I like sabermetrics as much as the next guy but when you get into things like WARP1 it is a little too much. Jones got his team to a division title and Lee for all his efforts is on a 4th place team. That says who is more VALUABLE.

That has no bearing on the question of value whatsoever. A player who adds 12 wins to his team has the same on-field (i.e., not considering marginal marketing/revenue) value whether that team wins 100 games or 50.

I will add that I wouldn't have a problem with going with using team status to make a decision at the margin, when two players are otherwise indistinguishable, although I'd much rather have co-MVPs.

mvp...cy young...

they're popularity contests with no rules for how the sportswriters vote.

expect pujols/jones...nothing is out of the question, though.

lots of people have been "robbed" of their cy young/mvp award.

and a lot of sports writers think about these things a lot less than any of us. expect almost every southern-area sportswriter to hand it to jones and expect a lotta midwest-area sportswriters to hand it to pujols...the rest will probally be a crapshoot and keeping with ill-advised voting history, expect at least a few chicago-area votes to go to lee reguardless (see: sosa)

*shrug*

"Sabermetrics are the best way to compare the relative worth of a player."

So says the Sabermetricians...

So says the Sabermetricians...

And you would compare them how?

"And you would compare them how?"

a number of ways...

First off, traditional statistics, not the gerryrigged overregressed, hypoassumptive, poop that we see from some of the "Sabermetricians".

Second, visual observation of fundamentals. Every Sabermatrician told us how good Jason Dubois was. Anyone who watched him play knew he had nearly no chance.

Third, Scouting reports of players strengths and weaknesses.

But VORP, WARP1, and the Klingon Factor are not, as you said, "the best way"... There are many ways, and none of them is the best. Any one in isolation is horrendously myopic.

"And you would compare them how?"

a number of ways...

First off, traditional statistics, not the gerryrigged overregressed, hypoassumptive, poop that we see from some of the "Sabermetricians".

Second, visual observation of fundamentals. Every Sabermatrician told us how good Jason Dubois was. Anyone who watched him play knew he had nearly no chance.

Third, Scouting reports of players strengths and weaknesses.

But VORP, WARP1, and the Klingon Factor are not, as you said, "the best way"... There are many ways, and none of them is the best. Any one in isolation is horrendously myopic.

Every Sabermatrician told us how good Jason Dubois was

Projection is not a science by any method, sabermetric or not. To throw out sabermetrics because of projections of minor leaguers is childish.

ChiFan--"despite playing in an airport Sexson only has 7 hr less than Lee and more RBI's.

Another way of looking at it is that, despite not treating every at-bat as though it's the home run derby, Lee still has 7 more home runs than Sexson.

ChiFan--"Also sexson has a higher differnce in OBP that his is 103 points higher than his average while Lee has 82."

Is what you're trying to say that Richie Sexson is a .261 hitter, that his OBP is 61 points lower than Lee's, or that his OBP is just 23 points higher than Lee's batting average?

Richie Sexson draws more walks than Derrek Lee. Good for him. Derrek Lee this year has done every single thing else so much better that it's not even worth mentioning that Richie Sexson has a higher IsoD.

The only seperated by 95 points in OPS that probably has to do with balls sexson hits in Safeco that are FO and the same struck ball for Lee is a HR."

They're actually separated by 195 points of OPS, at least when you do the maths the traditional British way. Ignoring the fact that I personally completely disregard OPS as a meaningful catch-all assessment of offensive value, here are some other players that have been separated by between 190 and 200 points of OPS in 2005...

Corey Patterson and Johnny Damon
Neifi Perez and Miguel Tejada
Jose Macias and Eric Chavez

Now, now, John, that's not fair. Eric Chavez's down-year .800 OPS may be 197 points better than Macias' pathetic .603, but it's also 32.6% better. On the other hand, Derrek Lee's OPS was only 21.4% better than Sexson. So here, again ignoring my absolute contempt of OPS and the fact that using it makes me feel dirty, are some players that have been separated by between 20 and 23% of OPS in 2005...

Corey Patterson and Carlos Beltran
Neifi Perez and Derek Jeter
Jose Macias and Chone Figgins

The difference between Sexson and Lee this year still nothing more than an airport? Well, in the sense that Richie Sexson would need to catch a plane to get to the whole different planet that Derrek Lee's been on this year, yes.

Every Sabermatrician told us how good Jason Dubois was

Not only that...but every scout loved him too!

every scout did not love dubois...that you can believe.

his batting holes were so glaring someone watching him for just a week with limited baseball knowlege could point them out.

the fact he cant plug them is a major concern...he's a true hack and slasher with a powerful swing and no idea where he's putting the bat.

Crunch--"his batting holes were so glaring someone watching him for just a week with limited baseball knowlege could point them out."

And you need no further evidence of that than that Crunch himself was pointing them out [/jovial good fun]

fun aside...before he even took a single at bat i gave more info on him than "omg! he is teh sux!"

he piqued my interest at the AA all-star game after gaining a bit of interest being a rule-5 draft pick earlier that season years ago.

aside from what i saw, people around me saw some of the same flaws in his game. he actually reminds me a lot of a cross between willie mo pena and dustin mohr.

"Not only that...but every scout loved him too!"

Absolutely not...

If you watched him play and reasonable sample, you couldn't help but see the following...

1) He was a terrible defensive OF using any critical defensive skill. His range was limited. His arm was below average. His judgement/jumps were poor. He would be bottom 1/5 of the MLB everyday LFs, safe from the bottom only due to the likes of Manny Ramirez who has more talent/skill, but is lazy and unmotivated defensively.

2) He NEVER had a handle on hitting lefites. There is no doubt using any statistic, metric, measure, observation, trend or scouting report.

3) His swing was so long and slow that any scout who saw him saw the hole. It doesn't show up in his minor league OPS. It doesn't show up from dopes who have decided that a strikeout is no different than any other out. But if you watched him play with an objective eye, you saw a guy who you knew had a swing that was not making contact on the minor league level and would be grossly exposed in short order at the major league level by superior talented pitching.

Most scouts didn't love Jason Dubois. Most stat sheet readers did. If scouts loved him so, why would the most value we get for him be Matt Lawton soon to be a FA?

" To throw out sabermetrics because of projections of minor leaguers is childish. "

I'm gonna assume that namecalling is ok here - but I won't do it because I find that to be a childish behaviour pattern.

The creation of non-mathematically sound "statistics" like WARP1, VORP, RF, UZR, etc.) and hiding them under the cloak of the name "Sabermetrics" and holding that this approach is better than actually having the skills to look at what a player does and project/evaluate how that will play at the next level reeks of a lack of the same statistical rigour and discipline that it would appear that anyone who believes in Sabermetrics would actually hold so dear.

Go back and read your copy of BP 2005 Projections. It is as if it were a random walk...rather than any sort of mathematically derrived tool. Anyone who knows the game and spends as much time understanding it as those goons spend with their spreadsheets and calculators would have come up with numbers with the same general reliability. Do the same thing with 2004...how about 2003.

You can not use mathematics to find the correlation between two events that are independent of eachother. You can not do enough regressions to take out all of the variables in an equation like sports. Sabermetrics, Moneyball, whatever... Find me a good scout, a good hitting coach, and a good pitching coach and I'll find you success. Find me a calculator and a spreasheet, I'll help you optimize the output of your manufacturing equipment, or balance the inventory in your warehouse.

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