Cubs Hits Of The Week (For The Week Ending 4/5)

The five hits that did the most to enhance the Cubs' chance of winning this week, as measured by FanGraphs' Win Probability Added (WPA):


#5 Big Hit:
Saturday v. Houston, 3rd inning--Derrek Lee cracks a solo home run off Roy Oswalt to tie the Astros, 2-2. Lee would later employ his game-tying skills to more good use. (See #4 Big Hit.) WPA .120


#4 Big Hit:
Saturday v. Houston, 7th inning--Lee collects his fourth hit of the day, a single to plate Mike Fontenot and erase the 5-3 deficit the Cubs faced at the beginning of the seventh inning. WPA .200


#3 Big Hit:
Friday v. Houston, 7th inning--Geovany Soto had only three hits in the season's opening week, but this two-out, two-run single against Astros starter Chris Sampson got the Cubs on the board and even with the visitors at 2-2. WPA .294


#2 Big Hit:
Saturday v. Houston, 7th inning--With 40,000 people chanting his name, Kosuke Fukudome worked the count full against the Astros' Wesley Wright, then pounded a two-out, tie-breaking double into left field. This could have been the defining moment of Fukudome's first week as a Chicago Cub, if it wasn't for what happened five days earlier... WPA .304


#1 Big Hit:
Monday v. Milwaukee, 9th inning--The Cubs were down to their final three outs when Fukudome launched a 3-1 pitch from Eric Gagne into the right-center field bleachers, sending the Opening Day matchup into extra innings. WPA .454

Through Saturday, Fukudome led all of MLB with a personal WPA of .98. Alfonso Soriano (-.55), Ryan Theriot (-.43), and Felix Pie (-.33) were all down near the bottom.

Update: Reader big_lowitzki points out that Derrek Lee's seventh-inning homer on Sunday (WPA .217) would occupy the fourth slot on the list, but the list is based on games through Saturday only. Will Lee's bomb make it into next week's list? Be sure to return to this space next Sunday to find out! (I believe the technical name for this is a "tease.")

Comments

You are missing Lee's home run yesterday, which would have fit in at #4.

At the time I wrote this, those numbers weren't up yet (thus the date designation in the headline), but yes, you're right. A great week for Derrek Lee and seventh-inning Cub rallies.

Great job by Big Z this week!! 2 outstanding pitching performances (now start drinking water and no caffeine and we will be all set!). If we can get Z to step up and pitch like a true #1, this team could be looking at 90 wins. Besides K-Fuk, he has been the Cub giving me the best hope for the rest of the season. Now we just need Pie, Theriot, and Soto to step up and actually start playing like real MLB players.

That throw from Fukudome yesterday to home plate was beautiful. He would have easily had Backe at home, but Backe stopped.

Just wanted to say - really like the schedule on the sidebar with ESPN links, as well as the expanded TCR approved section. Well done.

I agree. This new site just keeps getting better and better.

Yeah but the writers on this new site are still not as good as the writers on the old site.

I couldn't agree more. (All site design kudos should be directed to Rob G., who, by learning how to exist without sleep, has been able to improve the design on an almost constant basis.)

Its nice to see 2 OFer's with strong accurate arms. Soriano nails a guy at home to save a run and if Jaque Jones was in RF Backe would have gone and probably made it home. Instead its Fukudome with a perfect strike to the plate and makes the Astro's think twice.

Thats the kind of crap that doesn't show up in boxscores with Fukudome and why he is in Chicago.

Wood is the dominate closer we have needed for years. Sure he is gonna have his bad games but he already makes it look easy compared to Dempster.

And it sure helps a lot to have a Marmol in the wings just in case Woody needs backup.

Good Point MikeC! When Pie is playing too we really have 3 very good throwing OF's. RF especially is a big upgrade from last year with Floyd/Murton/JJ/Wardasauraus roaming out there.

As for Wood it is nice to see him rebound from his horrendous first outing, but the biggest thing with me is not can he do the job, as I think he will be an adequate closer, it is can he stay healthy as we are now again counting on him.

Levine said on ESPN 1000 today, Marmol will close today if needed.

There is nothing wrong with counting on Wood, so long as you have an adequate back up.

Well, I would argue there is something wrong counting on Wood with his vast injury background. And while we do hav e aback up plan of likely moving Marmol into the closer role, then what happens with Marmol's setup role? There will be a HUGE dropoff as to whoever takes that slot. If Wood stays healthy he will be fine as a closer, but that is a BIG "if", and if he does go down, it will hurt the team overall, no question.

Name another team that has the bullpen depth that the Cubs have, especially with the righties.

Most teams would LOVE to have a bullpen that consisted of:
Wood
Marmol
Howry
Wuertz
Hart
Lieber
Eyre/Tiggy

b_l: I'm not so sure "most teams would LOVE" to have Howry given (a) his salary and (b) his inability to get anyone out the first two months of the season.

Well... first of all, he pitches well enough to deserve his salary.

Second, I never said teams would love to have individual players. I said teams would love to have that bullpen.

If Marmol ends up having to move into the closer role, then Wuertz will do a great job taking over his set up role with no dropoff in production.

So we should trade for a closer Manny on the possibility of Wood getting injured?

Any injury to a star player hurts the team, duh.

MikeC:
"So we should trade for a closer Manny on the possibility of Wood getting injured?"

No, I just wouldn't have resigned Wood as I personally didn't feel we would have been able to count on him. He very well might stay healthy and have a very good year as a closer. I truly hope so, but I wouldn't bet on it that is for sure.

Ok, so if you count of Wood you might need to replace him if he gets hurt. If you don't count on Wood you MUST replace him. Given his salary (only $1.8 million), you are not going to be able to get a replacement player close to the production that Wood could give you if healthy. Seems like a pretty good gamble to me.

Ron Richardson:
"Ok, so if you count of Wood you might need to replace him if he gets hurt. If you don't count on Wood you MUST replace him."

Or you could have done nothing and left the guy you signed as a closer there.

Using that logic, if Wood gets hurt you can always move Dempster back to the closer.

The problem in both cases is that Dempster doesn't want to be a closer.

Rob Richardson:
"The problem in both cases is that Dempster doesn't want to be a closer."

Well, then he shouldn't have signed a 3 year contract with the Cubs to be the closer at the end of the 2005 season. he should have looked for a team who was willing to have him start right away.

I am not sure what Dempster's contract has to do with Wood being the closer, but wasn't Dempster coming off of Tommy John surgery when the Cubs signed him? Maybe he was looking for a team that would be willing to give him a shot at starting when he had fully rehabed. Kind of like John Smoltz.

Who were you going to sign as closer? Did you see Cordero's contract? I'll took Wood.

LNL:
"Who were you going to sign as closer?"

I would not have signed a closer. I would have left Dempster there.

But Dempster sucks....Wood is better.

I would have signed Wood and made Marmol the closer.

Wood could set up.

Recent comments

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  • Eloy Jimenez grand slam tonight. Hoping Soler power returns and gets hot but future looks bright in the outfield regardless.

    Eric S 1 hour 51 min ago view
  • Have fun - It may be good for Arrieta to be facing a team that doesn't know him as well as the NL teams. A nice shutout would do wonders for his confidence. He is confident in public but baseball is hard and he could use a boost, I'm sure.

    Old and Blue 2 hours 32 min ago view
  • Me too. I'll be at the game tomorrow and would love to see Good Arrieta.

    Brick 2 hours 56 min ago view
  • Last few games have been the April version of the Cubs that disappeared completely the past two months.
    Hope they can sustain it.

    blockhead25 3 hours 23 min ago view
  • Don't sell yourself short, Judge.

    Jackstraw 3 hours 50 min ago view
  • I love this team.

    Looks like Mother Nature is trying to call this fight.

    Rob Richardson 5 hours 18 min ago view
  • Hey! I remember this team!

    billybucks 5 hours 26 min ago view
  • The key for Heyward's offense: get early leads. Heard a stat on Mike & Mike on the way to work that his avg/power much better this year when the Cubs have the lead. And true to form he gets the two run dinger with Cubs winning 3-0 ...

    Eric S 6 hours 53 min ago view
  • I'm sorry - I was probably not looking at the correct line, or spot, or...who knows!

    I could blame it on the weed, but I stopped smoking many years ago.

    Fortunately, I can rely on the rest of you sober and astute folks to bring the correct info forth.

    The E-Man 7 hours 20 min ago view
  • Oh yeah! It just felt like one for some reason.

    Old and Blue 8 hours 26 min ago view
  • Agreed. I was not including Fowler or Heyward.

    I'm just not a fan of 2016 Coghlan.....

    Dusty Baylor 8 hours 33 min ago view
  • @Dusty Contreras if it's a Lester or Arrieta start. TLS is good PH too. You also forgot about Heyward, assume Fowler is CF.

    chitownmvp01 8 hours 34 min ago view
  • I expect Soler to get optioned as well when activated and Cahill to replace Grimm. It wouldn't surprise me if Coghlan and/or Soler is included in a trade.

    Maybe Coghlan is up to see if he can get on track before someone acquires him.

    This move could also be to assure that we have as much OF depth as possible to maximize Joe's ability to rest players in September once we've clinched.

    chitownmvp01 8 hours 36 min ago view
  • Maddon basically said as much...Fowler still kind of sore, they're being proactive, etc.

    Tito 8 hours 38 min ago view
  • La Stella at 2B...Baez at 3B, or vice versa. Zobrist in RF, Bryant in LF No one gets bumped.

    Dusty Baylor 8 hours 47 min ago view
  • If Coghlan is leading off, I assume Fowler is getting the day off. Who is supposed to lead off, then? Someone has to get on base for Bryant and Rizzo. Coghlan's OBP is .346 with the Cubs. Jackson's was .304. LaStella can lead off, but then he has to play second or third, and bump Zobrist or Baez.

    Unless he gets hot, Coghlan will likely change places with Soler soon.

    VirginiaPhil 8 hours 48 min ago view