Cubs Hits Of The Week (For The Week Ending 4/5)

The five hits that did the most to enhance the Cubs' chance of winning this week, as measured by FanGraphs' Win Probability Added (WPA):


#5 Big Hit:
Saturday v. Houston, 3rd inning--Derrek Lee cracks a solo home run off Roy Oswalt to tie the Astros, 2-2. Lee would later employ his game-tying skills to more good use. (See #4 Big Hit.) WPA .120


#4 Big Hit:
Saturday v. Houston, 7th inning--Lee collects his fourth hit of the day, a single to plate Mike Fontenot and erase the 5-3 deficit the Cubs faced at the beginning of the seventh inning. WPA .200


#3 Big Hit:
Friday v. Houston, 7th inning--Geovany Soto had only three hits in the season's opening week, but this two-out, two-run single against Astros starter Chris Sampson got the Cubs on the board and even with the visitors at 2-2. WPA .294


#2 Big Hit:
Saturday v. Houston, 7th inning--With 40,000 people chanting his name, Kosuke Fukudome worked the count full against the Astros' Wesley Wright, then pounded a two-out, tie-breaking double into left field. This could have been the defining moment of Fukudome's first week as a Chicago Cub, if it wasn't for what happened five days earlier... WPA .304


#1 Big Hit:
Monday v. Milwaukee, 9th inning--The Cubs were down to their final three outs when Fukudome launched a 3-1 pitch from Eric Gagne into the right-center field bleachers, sending the Opening Day matchup into extra innings. WPA .454

Through Saturday, Fukudome led all of MLB with a personal WPA of .98. Alfonso Soriano (-.55), Ryan Theriot (-.43), and Felix Pie (-.33) were all down near the bottom.

Update: Reader big_lowitzki points out that Derrek Lee's seventh-inning homer on Sunday (WPA .217) would occupy the fourth slot on the list, but the list is based on games through Saturday only. Will Lee's bomb make it into next week's list? Be sure to return to this space next Sunday to find out! (I believe the technical name for this is a "tease.")

Comments

You are missing Lee's home run yesterday, which would have fit in at #4.

At the time I wrote this, those numbers weren't up yet (thus the date designation in the headline), but yes, you're right. A great week for Derrek Lee and seventh-inning Cub rallies.

Great job by Big Z this week!! 2 outstanding pitching performances (now start drinking water and no caffeine and we will be all set!). If we can get Z to step up and pitch like a true #1, this team could be looking at 90 wins. Besides K-Fuk, he has been the Cub giving me the best hope for the rest of the season. Now we just need Pie, Theriot, and Soto to step up and actually start playing like real MLB players.

That throw from Fukudome yesterday to home plate was beautiful. He would have easily had Backe at home, but Backe stopped.

Just wanted to say - really like the schedule on the sidebar with ESPN links, as well as the expanded TCR approved section. Well done.

I agree. This new site just keeps getting better and better.

Yeah but the writers on this new site are still not as good as the writers on the old site.

I couldn't agree more. (All site design kudos should be directed to Rob G., who, by learning how to exist without sleep, has been able to improve the design on an almost constant basis.)

Its nice to see 2 OFer's with strong accurate arms. Soriano nails a guy at home to save a run and if Jaque Jones was in RF Backe would have gone and probably made it home. Instead its Fukudome with a perfect strike to the plate and makes the Astro's think twice.

Thats the kind of crap that doesn't show up in boxscores with Fukudome and why he is in Chicago.

Wood is the dominate closer we have needed for years. Sure he is gonna have his bad games but he already makes it look easy compared to Dempster.

And it sure helps a lot to have a Marmol in the wings just in case Woody needs backup.

Good Point MikeC! When Pie is playing too we really have 3 very good throwing OF's. RF especially is a big upgrade from last year with Floyd/Murton/JJ/Wardasauraus roaming out there.

As for Wood it is nice to see him rebound from his horrendous first outing, but the biggest thing with me is not can he do the job, as I think he will be an adequate closer, it is can he stay healthy as we are now again counting on him.

Levine said on ESPN 1000 today, Marmol will close today if needed.

There is nothing wrong with counting on Wood, so long as you have an adequate back up.

Well, I would argue there is something wrong counting on Wood with his vast injury background. And while we do hav e aback up plan of likely moving Marmol into the closer role, then what happens with Marmol's setup role? There will be a HUGE dropoff as to whoever takes that slot. If Wood stays healthy he will be fine as a closer, but that is a BIG "if", and if he does go down, it will hurt the team overall, no question.

Name another team that has the bullpen depth that the Cubs have, especially with the righties.

Most teams would LOVE to have a bullpen that consisted of:
Wood
Marmol
Howry
Wuertz
Hart
Lieber
Eyre/Tiggy

b_l: I'm not so sure "most teams would LOVE" to have Howry given (a) his salary and (b) his inability to get anyone out the first two months of the season.

Well... first of all, he pitches well enough to deserve his salary.

Second, I never said teams would love to have individual players. I said teams would love to have that bullpen.

If Marmol ends up having to move into the closer role, then Wuertz will do a great job taking over his set up role with no dropoff in production.

So we should trade for a closer Manny on the possibility of Wood getting injured?

Any injury to a star player hurts the team, duh.

MikeC:
"So we should trade for a closer Manny on the possibility of Wood getting injured?"

No, I just wouldn't have resigned Wood as I personally didn't feel we would have been able to count on him. He very well might stay healthy and have a very good year as a closer. I truly hope so, but I wouldn't bet on it that is for sure.

Ok, so if you count of Wood you might need to replace him if he gets hurt. If you don't count on Wood you MUST replace him. Given his salary (only $1.8 million), you are not going to be able to get a replacement player close to the production that Wood could give you if healthy. Seems like a pretty good gamble to me.

Ron Richardson:
"Ok, so if you count of Wood you might need to replace him if he gets hurt. If you don't count on Wood you MUST replace him."

Or you could have done nothing and left the guy you signed as a closer there.

Using that logic, if Wood gets hurt you can always move Dempster back to the closer.

The problem in both cases is that Dempster doesn't want to be a closer.

Rob Richardson:
"The problem in both cases is that Dempster doesn't want to be a closer."

Well, then he shouldn't have signed a 3 year contract with the Cubs to be the closer at the end of the 2005 season. he should have looked for a team who was willing to have him start right away.

I am not sure what Dempster's contract has to do with Wood being the closer, but wasn't Dempster coming off of Tommy John surgery when the Cubs signed him? Maybe he was looking for a team that would be willing to give him a shot at starting when he had fully rehabed. Kind of like John Smoltz.

Who were you going to sign as closer? Did you see Cordero's contract? I'll took Wood.

LNL:
"Who were you going to sign as closer?"

I would not have signed a closer. I would have left Dempster there.

But Dempster sucks....Wood is better.

I would have signed Wood and made Marmol the closer.

Wood could set up.

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  • peter gammons on MLB network pushing the yanks/schwarber angle...says insiders from the yanks say brian cashman highly covets him.

    unless that conversation starts with a.miller (2/18m left on contract) i dunno how you even start that conversation given the "not trash, but no stars" state of the yanks minor league system.

    they got corner OF'r aaron judge, C gary sanchez, RHP james kaprielian's questionable elbow, RHP domingo acevedo...all interesting, none expected to impact the game like schwarber's power potential.

    crunch 19 min 3 sec ago view
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    Cubster 26 min 55 sec ago view
  • damn. low sample size blah blah whatever, but that slash got sneaky good. 10 hits, 4 walks, 2hr, 1 double through 39 PA...nice

    crunch 46 min 41 sec ago view
  • Buddy Ryan takes his place alongside George Allen as the great Bear head coaches who never were.

    VirginiaPhil 3 hours 41 min ago view
  • Well, at least he can still hit: Jake slashing .294/.368/.868. Forget hitting 8th -- he should hit 6th.

    billybucks 3 hours 59 min ago view
  • Curious to see today's lineup vs. a LHP: Ross needs to catch Lester, Joe likes Javy at 3B when Lester pitches. Heyward with back-to-back good games at the plate, and is actually hitting a little better against LHP (.247/.341) than RHP (.232/.321), although neither is much to write home about. But, tomorrow is an early day game, so some regulars will probably sit either today or tomorrow.

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    billybucks 4 hours 4 min ago view
  • "Pitching prospects not looking so hot"

    That reminds me that Lucas Giolito will start for the Nats tonight.

    VirginiaPhil 4 hours 7 min ago view
  • Well, there you go. Federowicz is one of the best at balls in the dirt.

    VirginiaPhil 4 hours 27 min ago view
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    "Hey coach...maybe we should walk Bryant?"
    "No...keep challenging him with fastballs! What kind of man are you?! The Cubs walked Harper, and look what happened there! They got teased for it, by one of the Nat players! Is that what you want?"

    billybucks 15 hours 8 min ago view
  • How can I get that feature? I think it woudl be a win-win for all involved.

    billybucks 15 hours 12 min ago view
  • Ian Happ is hitting.733 after 5 games at Tennessee. He went into tonight's game hitting .667 -- and went 3-for-3 to raise his average.

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    Did Jiminez get hurt? I noticed he came out early yesterday.

    billybucks 16 hours 21 sec ago view
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    billybucks 16 hours 6 min ago view
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    Cubster 16 hours 6 min ago view
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    billybucks 16 hours 9 min ago view
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    Cubster 16 hours 25 min ago view
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    crunch 16 hours 29 min ago view