The World’s Most Useless Playoff Predictor

I trotted out my playoff prediction process last year at my old site. Before we begin, let me point out that picking names out of a hat or some sort of other randomness would be just as successful. My record last year in the first round, well my original picks went 3-1, but I discovered the Yanks led the league in come from behind victories (See Rule #2), which would have changed my one pick and I would have went 4-0. Onto The Rules: #1) Find the teams that have been playing well for longer than a week....a good 2 month stretch or longer is nice. Records of the playoff teams since August 1st: Yankees (39-20), Angels (35-22), White Sox (31-28), Red Sox (36-22) Astros (32-25), Cardinals (34-24), Padres (31-26), Braves (29-28) Edge to the Yanks, Red Sox and Cardinals. #2) Find teams that have a knack for coming from behind (2002 - Angels, 2003 - Marlins, 2004 - Boston, 2005 - Cardinals) I wish I could find a team stat for come from behind victories but I recall the Cardinals coming back in a lot of games and pullling off a few miraculous victories. The Yanks as well and the White Sox had some miracle victories early on in the season. #3) 2 dominant starters on staff equals trouble for other team. And by dominant, I mean pitchers who you feel lucky that you even managed contact off of. Sure the White Sox have had a good pitching staff all year, but depth isn't nearly as important as top-level starters. And none of their pitchers are all that frightening in my opinion, same goes for the Cardinals. Astros have the edge here, along with the Braves. No one in the AL really has 2 dominant starters in my opinion, all settling for just one. (White Sox - maybe Garcia, Red Sox - Schilling, Yankees - Johnson, Angels - maybe Colon, Lackey has been making his case this year). #4) Aggressive managing is better than the same old thing works managing. It's the playoffs folks, (duh)! The same rules don't apply. Starters can be used as relievers, you can pinch-hit or run for catchers even if you don't have another backup, etc, etc. Scioscia and Torre get the edge in the AL, just cause we don't know how Guillen will play it yet. I didn't really get a sense of how much Francona understood the do or die mentatlity last year. In the NL, LaRussa and Cox seem set in their ways. I'm not sure about Bochy. Garner is aggressive, stupid, but aggressive. #5) Never go for a team with a bad defense particularly up the middle (CF, 2b, SS & C) Team Defensive Efficiency: White Sox (2nd) Houston (4th) Cardinals 6th) Angels (9th) Braves (19th) Padres (21st) Yankees (22nd) Red Sox (23rd) Looking at the teams up the middle, the Yanks are certainly nothing special, especially if Bernie is patrolling center everyday. Cano and Jeter are lackluster as well. The White Sox and Angels are both exceptional though. In the NL, Cards have been other-wordly. The Braves rank a lot lower in defensive efficiency then I would have expected, cause Giles, Furcal and Jones are all top-notch. Surprised to see the Astros up there. #6) And of course there is the ex-Cub factor: Ruz covered this on the front page of all-baseball.com To sum up, Yanks and Cards are in the biggest trouble, with the White Sox, Astros and Angles all only housing one. Thr Braves are the only other team with less than the magical three. It's a series of tradeoffs as always, and this year there's just not one team that really seems to have all their bases covered. At the moment I'm leaning towards the Braves and Angels, but that could change by the end of this article: Here's one man's playoff predictions: Cardinals vs. Padres Oh, how fun would it be if the Padres won this series? Talk about a slap in the face of the current playoff system. And with Jake Peavy potentially getting 2 starts in the series, it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility. And if the Padres can keep the games close early, they have a relatively lights out bullpen. Plus you have Tony LaRussa over-managing at every possible moment. All these crazy reasons to pick the Padres... But I don't see it happening, the Padres are just happy to be here, the Cards have something to prove: Prediction: Cards over Padres in 4 Astros vs. Braves The Astros certainly have cornered the market on dominating pitching, but Hudson and Smoltz aren't chopped liver. Smoltz's shoulder may be the key as he's been experiencing some soreness lately. But I like the Braves this series, their lineup is tremendously better and the law of averages say the Braves have to escape the first round one of these days. Prediction: Braves over Astros in 5 Yankees vs. Angels I really want to pick the Angels here as they seemed to have had the Yanks number for years now. But the Yanks are the uber-hot team entering the playoffs and the Angels offense is pretty darn pathetic. But there is the ex-Cub factor which should not be taken lightly. Plus Scioscia will constantly put pressure on the Yanks defense by taking extra bases and stealing at every opportunity. Something the Yanks handled horribly in the 2002 ALDS and this team's defense doesn't look much better. Tough, tough call. But hard to pick a team that is going to expect Shawn Chacon or Chien-Ming Wang to have to win a game. In the end, I know the Angels won't beat themselves, I wouldn't be surprised if the Yanks do. Prediction: Angels over Yanks in 5 (and I'm horribly biased towards the Angels) Red Sox vs. White Sox Sox win, Sox win!!! Well one of them has too and this is even a tougher series to call then the Angels/Yanks. Schilling isn't going to start until Game 4 which spells trouble in mind. This Red Sox team doesn't seem to have the same fire that last year's team had, just ask Schilling. The White Sox avoided that late-season collapse though and they can't be feeling too confident either. Tough call, go with the defense and better pitching. But wait, El Papi and Manny versus Who? Paul Konerko? God I don't know... Prediction: White Sox over Red Sox in 5, wait Red Sox over White Sox in 5, wait Sox in 5. I dunno. I have to pick, right? The ex-Cub factor gets the nod, White Sox in 5. NLCS: Braves over Cardinals in 7 ALCS: Angels over White Sox in 5 World Series: Angels over Braves in 7 I don't have a good feeling about any of theses series other than the Cards over the Padres. That being the case, I'm going with the tried-and-true system of the ex-Cub factor. It's all a bunch of subjective phooey anyway. That's my call at the moment and I'm fairly certain I'll be more wrong than right this year.

Comments

Since we're talking Useless Playoff Predictors...

I always pay attention to the team roster with the most ex-Cubs.

Fewest ex-Cubs is best.

This might vary if the playoff roster cuts some ex-Cub like Hollandsworth or Jeremi Gonzalez as I couldn't find the final roster cuts.

NL
Cardinals (3): Julian Taveras, Ray King, Mark Grudzielanek
Padres:(2): Damian Jackson, Eric Young
Braves: (2): Kyle Farnsworth, Todd Hollandsworth
Astros (1): Jose Vizcaino

Ex-Cub Factor Predicts: Astros

AL
Yankees(4): Tom Gordon, Mark Bellhorn, Matt Lawton, Tony Womack
Redsox (3): Matt Clement, Bill Mueller, Jeremy Gonzalez
Whitesox (2): Ross Gload, Jon Garland
Angels (1): Josh Paul

Ex-Cub Factor Predicts: Angels

World Series: Angels (Vizcaino was a Cub longer than Josh Paul)

The Cardinals bullpen has looked downright awful, of course so did Jake Peavy.

Winning run up to bat now, bases juiced, 2 outs

Rob G:
"Winning run up to bat now, bases juiced, 2 outs"

It was only the go ahead run, as the Padres were on the road amd the Cards has last ups.

Bringing in your closer with a 6 run lead and 1 out?? WOW!!

Matt Clement puts reality into the ex-Cub factor.

Ugly first inning for him, 2 hit batsmen, Pods stealing 3B on him then tips his slider to Rowand with his arm angle...then the final meltdown with a 3 run HR

WSox 5 RSox 0, end of 1

Your a genius Manny, thanks for correcting me! I completely forgot how baseball worked.

No problem Rob G., anytime....

Rob,

I was wondering with the Dodgers firing Tracy is McCourt the kind of owner who would force a manager on Depo (Baker or Herisher) if he thought it was good for the bottom line or is this going to be completly Depo's call which means Ron Washington is going to get it.

I answered your question in the other thread chifan.

To sum up I don't know who they're going after, but I promise you it isn't Dusty Baker. Depo will get to hire his own guy. whoever that may be.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but I think we should all jump on the White Sox bandwagon (no, don't stop reading just yet)... we should jump on for this playoff ride and hope against hope that they win the World Series.

Think of the pressure that would put on the Cubs organization to put a winner on the field.

*sigh*

nohit, we should all jump on the White Sox bandwagon, but only because it'll annoy Sox fans.

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  • if they dont win at least 130 games this season they can pack it all up, turn wrigley into a concert venue, and move the damn team to san jose.

    #Bernie130orBust

    crunch 8 hours 39 min ago view
  • I see where catcher Cael Brockmeyer was promoted to Tennessee a couple of days ago, to fill a roster spot vacated by David Freitas, recently promoted to Iowa. Caratini is the other catcher at Tennessee.

    VirginiaPhil 8 hours 42 min ago view
  • They've already clinched a minimum winning percentage of .607 for the month, and that's only if they lose the last 2 games. If they win both, they can push that up to .679. So much for "stumbling" in May. When you're winning over 60% of your games, you're doing baseball well.

    John Beasley 9 hours 56 min ago view
  • If the best walk-off hit possible is a solo home run in a zero-zero game--Eloy did it tonight!

    (But maybe it's a grand slam when your team is down three? He didn't do that.)

    Number eight for Jimenez. His team is 31-17. Yesterday they scored 17 runs against Lansing. Two weeks ago it was 15 runs against the same team. This is a nice team, South Bend. The Cubs must have had a good draft last year.

    Tonight the pitchers were Sands, Brooks and Effross.

    VirginiaPhil 10 hours 3 min ago view
  • RIP Zoobrest.

    crunch 11 hours 37 min ago view
  • He'll be fine. He's not some wimpy young pup.

    Old and Blue 12 hours 6 min ago view
  • In all seriousness the Cubs have the fewest amount of games played in the NL which means they're gonna be facing quite the grind later on including 24 games in a row at the end of June and beginning of July so I hope he does get a few days off.

    johann 14 hours 2 min ago view
  • Meh. He only got one hit today. Maybe give him a rest?

    Old and Blue 14 hours 38 min ago view
  • 34-14...awww yeah.

    crunch 15 hours 35 min ago view
  • Good thing the Cubs have five left-handed batters in the lineup. Velasquez is just tearing thru the righties [edit - doesn't seem to faze Bryant!]

    Eric S 16 hours 55 min ago view
  • ben zobrist gets to ride up front tonight cause he's a good guy at sports.

    cubs with a 5 run lead and a lackey shutout through 3ip \m/

    crunch 17 hours 30 min ago view
  • HAGSAG: I have not seen Joe Nathan out on the field, but he is supposedly at the UAPC. 

    Arizona Phil 20 hours 26 min ago view
  • ERIC S: Best outing I've ever seen from Manny Rondon, and I've seen most of his outings since the Cubs got him from the Angels. 

    M. Rondon is competing with six others (Dylan Cease, Bryan Hudson, Jose Paulino, Pedro Silverio, Jesus Castillo, and Erling Moreno) for a starting slot at Eugene, and (as you can probably tell from the EXST box scores)  the competition has gotten fierce over the last couple of weeks, With the exception of Moreno, the Eugene SP candidates have upped their game lately, and M. Rondon's outing yesterday was especially impressive/dominating. 

    Arizona Phil 20 hours 28 min ago view
  • E-MAN: Pierce Johnsion was mixing a 92-94 MPH fastball with a plus-change-up AND curve, and he threw strike-after-strike-after-strike with all three of his pitches. I believe that was the best command and pitch-efficiency I've ever seen from Johnson, who often pitches from behind in the count and issues too many walks.  

    Of course now he has to avoid a recurrence of the lat strain (whch he has had previously in his career) as well as all of the other miscellaneous physical problems he's had over the last three years (hamstring, quad, back, etc).  

    Arizona Phil 20 hours 38 min ago view
  • PHIL: Any movement on P. Johnsons pitches? What was his "out" pitch? I know he was working on a 4th pitch, so wondering what he is looking like these days. Thanks.

    The E-Man 21 hours 21 min ago view
  • AZ Phil, has Nathan showed up in Mesa yet? Thanks.

    Hagsag 1 day 2 hours ago view