The World’s Most Useless Playoff Predictor

I trotted out my playoff prediction process last year at my old site. Before we begin, let me point out that picking names out of a hat or some sort of other randomness would be just as successful. My record last year in the first round, well my original picks went 3-1, but I discovered the Yanks led the league in come from behind victories (See Rule #2), which would have changed my one pick and I would have went 4-0. Onto The Rules: #1) Find the teams that have been playing well for longer than a week....a good 2 month stretch or longer is nice. Records of the playoff teams since August 1st: Yankees (39-20), Angels (35-22), White Sox (31-28), Red Sox (36-22) Astros (32-25), Cardinals (34-24), Padres (31-26), Braves (29-28) Edge to the Yanks, Red Sox and Cardinals. #2) Find teams that have a knack for coming from behind (2002 - Angels, 2003 - Marlins, 2004 - Boston, 2005 - Cardinals) I wish I could find a team stat for come from behind victories but I recall the Cardinals coming back in a lot of games and pullling off a few miraculous victories. The Yanks as well and the White Sox had some miracle victories early on in the season. #3) 2 dominant starters on staff equals trouble for other team. And by dominant, I mean pitchers who you feel lucky that you even managed contact off of. Sure the White Sox have had a good pitching staff all year, but depth isn't nearly as important as top-level starters. And none of their pitchers are all that frightening in my opinion, same goes for the Cardinals. Astros have the edge here, along with the Braves. No one in the AL really has 2 dominant starters in my opinion, all settling for just one. (White Sox - maybe Garcia, Red Sox - Schilling, Yankees - Johnson, Angels - maybe Colon, Lackey has been making his case this year). #4) Aggressive managing is better than the same old thing works managing. It's the playoffs folks, (duh)! The same rules don't apply. Starters can be used as relievers, you can pinch-hit or run for catchers even if you don't have another backup, etc, etc. Scioscia and Torre get the edge in the AL, just cause we don't know how Guillen will play it yet. I didn't really get a sense of how much Francona understood the do or die mentatlity last year. In the NL, LaRussa and Cox seem set in their ways. I'm not sure about Bochy. Garner is aggressive, stupid, but aggressive. #5) Never go for a team with a bad defense particularly up the middle (CF, 2b, SS & C) Team Defensive Efficiency: White Sox (2nd) Houston (4th) Cardinals 6th) Angels (9th) Braves (19th) Padres (21st) Yankees (22nd) Red Sox (23rd) Looking at the teams up the middle, the Yanks are certainly nothing special, especially if Bernie is patrolling center everyday. Cano and Jeter are lackluster as well. The White Sox and Angels are both exceptional though. In the NL, Cards have been other-wordly. The Braves rank a lot lower in defensive efficiency then I would have expected, cause Giles, Furcal and Jones are all top-notch. Surprised to see the Astros up there. #6) And of course there is the ex-Cub factor: Ruz covered this on the front page of all-baseball.com To sum up, Yanks and Cards are in the biggest trouble, with the White Sox, Astros and Angles all only housing one. Thr Braves are the only other team with less than the magical three. It's a series of tradeoffs as always, and this year there's just not one team that really seems to have all their bases covered. At the moment I'm leaning towards the Braves and Angels, but that could change by the end of this article: Here's one man's playoff predictions: Cardinals vs. Padres Oh, how fun would it be if the Padres won this series? Talk about a slap in the face of the current playoff system. And with Jake Peavy potentially getting 2 starts in the series, it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility. And if the Padres can keep the games close early, they have a relatively lights out bullpen. Plus you have Tony LaRussa over-managing at every possible moment. All these crazy reasons to pick the Padres... But I don't see it happening, the Padres are just happy to be here, the Cards have something to prove: Prediction: Cards over Padres in 4 Astros vs. Braves The Astros certainly have cornered the market on dominating pitching, but Hudson and Smoltz aren't chopped liver. Smoltz's shoulder may be the key as he's been experiencing some soreness lately. But I like the Braves this series, their lineup is tremendously better and the law of averages say the Braves have to escape the first round one of these days. Prediction: Braves over Astros in 5 Yankees vs. Angels I really want to pick the Angels here as they seemed to have had the Yanks number for years now. But the Yanks are the uber-hot team entering the playoffs and the Angels offense is pretty darn pathetic. But there is the ex-Cub factor which should not be taken lightly. Plus Scioscia will constantly put pressure on the Yanks defense by taking extra bases and stealing at every opportunity. Something the Yanks handled horribly in the 2002 ALDS and this team's defense doesn't look much better. Tough, tough call. But hard to pick a team that is going to expect Shawn Chacon or Chien-Ming Wang to have to win a game. In the end, I know the Angels won't beat themselves, I wouldn't be surprised if the Yanks do. Prediction: Angels over Yanks in 5 (and I'm horribly biased towards the Angels) Red Sox vs. White Sox Sox win, Sox win!!! Well one of them has too and this is even a tougher series to call then the Angels/Yanks. Schilling isn't going to start until Game 4 which spells trouble in mind. This Red Sox team doesn't seem to have the same fire that last year's team had, just ask Schilling. The White Sox avoided that late-season collapse though and they can't be feeling too confident either. Tough call, go with the defense and better pitching. But wait, El Papi and Manny versus Who? Paul Konerko? God I don't know... Prediction: White Sox over Red Sox in 5, wait Red Sox over White Sox in 5, wait Sox in 5. I dunno. I have to pick, right? The ex-Cub factor gets the nod, White Sox in 5. NLCS: Braves over Cardinals in 7 ALCS: Angels over White Sox in 5 World Series: Angels over Braves in 7 I don't have a good feeling about any of theses series other than the Cards over the Padres. That being the case, I'm going with the tried-and-true system of the ex-Cub factor. It's all a bunch of subjective phooey anyway. That's my call at the moment and I'm fairly certain I'll be more wrong than right this year.

Comments

Since we're talking Useless Playoff Predictors...

I always pay attention to the team roster with the most ex-Cubs.

Fewest ex-Cubs is best.

This might vary if the playoff roster cuts some ex-Cub like Hollandsworth or Jeremi Gonzalez as I couldn't find the final roster cuts.

NL
Cardinals (3): Julian Taveras, Ray King, Mark Grudzielanek
Padres:(2): Damian Jackson, Eric Young
Braves: (2): Kyle Farnsworth, Todd Hollandsworth
Astros (1): Jose Vizcaino

Ex-Cub Factor Predicts: Astros

AL
Yankees(4): Tom Gordon, Mark Bellhorn, Matt Lawton, Tony Womack
Redsox (3): Matt Clement, Bill Mueller, Jeremy Gonzalez
Whitesox (2): Ross Gload, Jon Garland
Angels (1): Josh Paul

Ex-Cub Factor Predicts: Angels

World Series: Angels (Vizcaino was a Cub longer than Josh Paul)

The Cardinals bullpen has looked downright awful, of course so did Jake Peavy.

Winning run up to bat now, bases juiced, 2 outs

Rob G:
"Winning run up to bat now, bases juiced, 2 outs"

It was only the go ahead run, as the Padres were on the road amd the Cards has last ups.

Bringing in your closer with a 6 run lead and 1 out?? WOW!!

Matt Clement puts reality into the ex-Cub factor.

Ugly first inning for him, 2 hit batsmen, Pods stealing 3B on him then tips his slider to Rowand with his arm angle...then the final meltdown with a 3 run HR

WSox 5 RSox 0, end of 1

Your a genius Manny, thanks for correcting me! I completely forgot how baseball worked.

No problem Rob G., anytime....

Rob,

I was wondering with the Dodgers firing Tracy is McCourt the kind of owner who would force a manager on Depo (Baker or Herisher) if he thought it was good for the bottom line or is this going to be completly Depo's call which means Ron Washington is going to get it.

I answered your question in the other thread chifan.

To sum up I don't know who they're going after, but I promise you it isn't Dusty Baker. Depo will get to hire his own guy. whoever that may be.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but I think we should all jump on the White Sox bandwagon (no, don't stop reading just yet)... we should jump on for this playoff ride and hope against hope that they win the World Series.

Think of the pressure that would put on the Cubs organization to put a winner on the field.

*sigh*

nohit, we should all jump on the White Sox bandwagon, but only because it'll annoy Sox fans.

Recent comments

Subscribe to Recent comments
The first 600 characters of the last 16 comments, click "View" to see rest of comment.
  • has anyone really been far even as decided to use even go want to do look more like?”

    crunch 24 min 58 sec ago view
  • I agree -- I think if you are a soft-tosser, you need a track record before you are taken seriously. If Kyle posts sub-3.00 ERA consistently and wins 15+ games a few times (and pitches more innings), he may have a shot at the award in a few years. Hopefully, he gets in the top 5 this year -- would be deserved and a nice boost for his confidence.

    billybucks 49 min 41 sec ago view
  • It's also possible that the Cubs have no intention of recalling Spencer Patton. Perhaps Maddon has seen enough of him, and Patton will eventually be one of the players cut to make room for others who will be added to the 40 in September.

    Arizona Phil 51 min 31 sec ago view
  • I doesn't know what your talking about.

    Sonicwind75 56 min 5 sec ago view
  • Maybe it's to get him some game action. He's only pitched for the Cubs once in the last 10 days. I don't really care much about him going down since he's sucked when up here.

    I really want Rivero to be called up.

    chitownmvp01 1 hour 1 min ago view
  • CHITOWNMVP01: It is indeed odd that the Cubs did not just wait one more day to recall LaStella.

    As far as Spencer Patton is concerned...

    Arizona Phil 1 hour 9 min ago view
  • Why didn't they wait until tomorrow to call up TLS? Don't they have to wait 10 days to bring Patton back up now?

    chitownmvp01 1 hour 30 min ago view
  • Cubs assigned to Mesa Solar Sox (AFL):

    Victor Caratini, C
    James Farris, RHRP
    Ian Happ, 2B-OF
    Eloy Jimenez, OF
    Ryan McNeil, RHRP
    Steve Perakslis, RHRP
    Duane Underwood Jr, RHSP

    Brian Lawrence, Pitching Coach

    Jimenez, Happ, Caratini and Underwood are among the Cubs Top 10 Prospects, and playing in the AFL should help speed their development.

    Arizona Phil 2 hours 4 min ago view
  • Outstanding.

    Jackstraw 2 hours 17 min ago view
  • So presuming he remains on the MLB Active List for the balance of the MLB regular season, Tommy LaStella will be at 2+102 MLB Service Time at the end of the season, far short of what he would have needed to accrue to have a chance at "Super Two" status post-2016. (Even if he had remained on the MLB Active List for the entire season and finished at 2+124 MLB Service Time, he still would have only been "on the bubble" for possible "Super Two" status post-2016).

    Arizona Phil 2 hours 52 min ago view
  • I don't know about the defensive part of the equation, the fact all the Cubs pitchers are so ahead of their FIP makes me think it's a lot more defense than anything special Hendricks is doing.

    Rob G. 2 hours 56 min ago view
  • Thanks, jacos! I love a good Alice Cooper group performance video -- especially when it corresponds with a shrinking, division-clinching magic number!

    JoePepitone 2 hours 57 min ago view
  • TLS up and playing second today. Spencer Patton to Iowa to make room.

    Rob Richardson 3 hours 30 min ago view
  • Yeah that article describes what I said in my other post about WAR. BR WAR is fine as a snapshot but FG is a better predictor of future performance.

    I also get what you mean by FIP being independent of luck but my point is all the soft contact Hendricks gives up negates a lot of that luck and defense aspect. In other words I believe he could pitch in front of any defense and have similar #s because for the most part he isn't giving up the screaming liners or hard hit liners to the gap.

    johann 3 hours 34 min ago view
  • Down on the farm:

    "Dealin'" Cease with another good outing for Eugene. Last 4 outings: 16IP, 1ER 29K. But, 10BB. Throw strikes, kid.

    Candelario is killing it at Iowa after struggling at AA: .320/.406/.941 in 241AB. At age 22. Where the heck to put him next year?

    billybucks 4 hours 38 min ago view
  • SF now only 1 game ahead of the Cards for home field in the WC game.

    billybucks 4 hours 48 min ago view