The Worldís Most Useless Playoff Predictor: LCS Edition

I went 3 out of 4 in the Division Series and if I actually paid attention to what I wrote, I might be 4 out of 4. Let's review the rules: #1) Find the teams that have been playing well for longer than a weekÖ.a good 2 month stretch or longer is nice. #2) Find teams that have a knack for coming from behind #3) 2 dominant starters on staff equals trouble for other team. #4) Aggressive managing is better than the same old thing works managing. #5) Never go for a team with a bad defense particularly up the middle (CF, 2b, SS & C) #6) And of course there is the ex-Cub factor. Onto the predictions we go.... Astros vs. Cardinals The Astros/Braves series was the one I butchered and if I just paid attention to what I wrote, I would have gotten it right. See the Astros were the hotter team, had more dominant starting pitching, the more aggressive manager and apparently the better defense. With Holly being off the roster, the ex-Cub factor was a wash and the come from behind ability, as I've mentioned, you can't find a damn stat anywhere for that. So for this series, let's break it down rule-by-rule. Rule #1) Edge Cardinals The Cards had a better record over the last 2 months (34-24 to the 'Stros 32-25), but the Houston was playing meaningul games down the stretch while the Cards were on cruise control. It's a very slight edge to the Cards, Rule #2) Edge Cardinals A couple of miracle finishes throughout the season along with one of the better offenses, once again gives a slight edge to the Cards. The 'Stros pulled off their own miracle Sunday, so once again, a very slight edge. Rule #3) Edge Astros I don't care what the Cards team ERA was this year, staring down the Big Three is much more foreboding than freaking Jeff Suppan. Rule #4) Edge Astros As written somewhere else, Tony LaRussa is more interested in being the smartest person in the room than in winning baseball games. Doesn't say much when you lose the managerial battle to Phil Garner. Rule #5) Wash Both teams are excellent defenders, slight edge Cards, but neither team can be considered bad defensively. Rule #6) Edge Astros Jose Vizcaino versus Grudz, Ray King and Julian Tavarez. Beware Cardinal fans, beware!!! 3-2 edge to the Astros. Sorry Redbird nation, wait till next year! I hate to give anything to Clemens or Oswalt but Biggio and Bagwell do deserve at least a trip to the Series, so I'll begrudgingly being rooting for Houston this series. Plus a White Sox/Cardinals World Series might force me to move the family to Antarctica. I expect another nail biter series though, this time the Astros will win it in 7. Angels vs. White Sox First, let's thank Gary Sheffield and Bubba Crosby for making me look like a prophet when I wrote this:
In the end, I know the Angels won't beat themselves, I wouldn't be surprised if the Yanks do.
With the Red Sox and Yanks eliminated, I'm not sure what ESPN is going to do for the next week. I wonder if the Baseball Tonight Crew even knows anything about these two teams. Somehow they'll still throw in how great Derek Jeter is and how damn clutch he is. Not to mention Fox has had to shelf the 100+ pieces they edited about the rivalry, the Curse and whatever other mumbo-jumbo they were going to spew on us. They can air it all next year, when they force MLB to schedule the Yanks and Red Sox to play each other for all 162 regular season games. The Angels look in trouble as they may be down as many as 2 starting pitchers. Washburn is suffering from strep throat and Colon has back and shoulder problems. Paul Byrd will pitch Game 1, but the Game 2 starter is up in the air at the moment, the strongest possibility being a bullpen approach starting with Kevin Gregg and then diving into the Angels most excellent relievers. Throw in the crazy travel schedule and the fact that it just looks like everything seems to be breaking the White Sox way this year (that Graffanino error was just one of those things that happens to teams headed places) and it looks like the deck is stacked against the Angels. And I don't buy it. The Angels do all those "Smartball" things way better than the Pale Hose. Better defense, better baserunning, better pitching (obviously that's up in the air right now), and a far superior manager. I'm horribly biased towards the Angels and against the White Sox, plus the opportunity to see Vlad take his hacks against the Astros pitchers would be fun. I say, Angels trump the ChiSox in 5.

Comments

I don't know what to say.

http://www.garygaetti.com/

Is there room in antarctica for others? Cards/Sox is like the Notre Dame/Michigan game, can both teams lose?

Yeah, plane leaves sometime next week. Maybe we'll get lucky and crash on some deserted island with Evangeline Lilly and Maggie Grace.

AFL in the 5th inning...#19 doing the same ol thang:

Matt Murton 3 at bats, 2 doubles and a walk (2 for 2)

Our little double machines...

Mesa 9
Peoria 2

No little cub pitchers today

Eric Patterson 2 for 6, 1 double, 2 runs, 1 rbi; 2 fielding errors, 1 Giddyup

Matt Murton 3 for 4, 3 doubles, 2 runs, 1 walk, 1K

SOX LOSE!!! SOX LOSE!!!!

Say bye bye to home field advantage....

If those lose tomorrow, it's over.

"If those lose tomorrow, it's over."

Yeah, I agree. Washburn has not pitched in 2 and a half weeks and coming off an infection that reqiuried hospitalization. I imagine he somewhere bewteen 85-90%. Angels might want to use a pen game knowing they have Home field. Save Washburn for Game 3 vs. Garland who is just as rusty. Have Lackey, Santana, Byrd, Lackey start games 4-7.

Nomar to the rescue
Garciaparra saves two women in Boston Harbor
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/basebal...

Yeah, I just saw that bloop. First thought I had was, Nomars groin is fine!

His uncle kicks ass btw.

The Empty Confines (in October)

After Game 2 of the NLCS, Busch Stadium will have been host to 52 playoff games, third-most all-time, one behind Fenway Park and a four-month schedule behind Yankee Stadium. Busch was open from 1968-2005.

The Cubs have been playing in Wrigley Field (call it one thing or another) since 1916. It has hosted 24 postseason games.

So, here's the plan. As long as the NLCS is over after five games, and the Astros win, we only need 29 playoff home games, and our park can surpass that of our rivals.

At the current pace (and I'll be generous and define that as the pace since 1984), and assuming the Cubs do not relocate to another facility, we should catch up to the then-long-ruined-and-that-oldtime-used-to-go-there stadium by 2061.

Then we can get to work on Busch Stadium II (2006-2045).

The new Busch Stadium is actually the third incarnation of the stadium, not the second.

As written somewhere else, Tony LaRussa is more interested in being the smartest person in the room than in winning baseball games. Doesn't say much when you lose the managerial battle to Phil Garner.

That's ridiculous. No basis in fact at all. It's amazing how one writer calls him a genius and suddenly he's arrogant. LaRussa wants to win every game. You can argue he overmanages, but it's always intended to produce a W.

And when did he lose a managerial battle with Garner?

I suppose I should have wrote the word "seems" instead of "is" there. Would that have been better? And I didn't actually write that, just agreed with what someone else said on the topic.

As for the managerial battle, I was just saying that in my preview I think Garner is a better playoff manager than LaRussa, nothing more. And I'm not saying that Garner is good or the Astros will win just because of that.

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  • nathan to join the cubs tomorrow.

    crunch 32 sec ago view
  • Wow in deed.

    Rob Richardson 4 min 43 sec ago view
  • FOX Sports @MLBONFOX
    Chris Sale was scratched from tonight's scheduled start due to a clubhouse incident before the game

    ...wow

    he was sent home by the team, too. the wsox released a press statement and everything. they stated it was non-physical in nature.

    crunch 9 min 52 sec ago view
  • He was scratched from his start today. No reason given.

    Rob Richardson 14 min 40 sec ago view
  • At the start of the season the book was that he was trying to pitch to more contact so he could stay in the game longer and it seems to be working so far. Contact against is 77.5% this year and it was 70.2% the year before. He averaged 6.7 IP/game last year and so far it's 7 IP/game. His actual pitches per game are only down to 106.1/game from 107.2/game last year but if he's able to go a bit farther into games without throwing more pitches and without giving up more runs that is a good thing.

    johann 1 hour 18 min ago view
  • sale's skills and insane value makes it almost too hard to have a market for the guy...he's got 3/38m owed to him over 3 seasons (2 team options). he could easily pull in 30m/yr if he was on the market as a FA.

    he's throwing a bit differently this season, especially with more sliders and less changeups like earlier in his career, but all his stuff still looks great even if the HRs are a little elevated and the Ks are down.

    crunch 3 hours 13 min ago view
  • Torres, Happ, McKinney, Jimenez, and Candelario for Sale. Deal or no deal?

    "The White Sox are reportedly asking for “five top prospects” for Chris Sale, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports."

    John Beasley 3 hours 26 min ago view
  • Unless he develops 30+ HR power and keeps his walk rate close to his K rate at the MLB level, he's not going to turn into Prince Fielder. And even if he does turn into Prince Fielder, he's gonna have a short prime. His very limited athleticism is likely to also detract some value from his ability to reach base--I don't buy making an out as being preferable to base clogging, but you'd certainly prefer just about any base runner other than Vogelbach, David Ortiz, etc.

    Charlie 3 hours 57 min ago view
  • seeing as arod has played a total of 27.1 innings of D at 1st/3rd and somehow managed a -0.5 dWAR with his 1 error at 1st and an overall positive total zone rating...he might end up even more in the shitter via the characteristics/flaws/whatever of how some sites determine various WAR values. dWAR doesn't directly lead to a WAR value, but the 2 main entities pushing the most popular variations of WAR sometimes lead to some interesting discrepancies in value.

    crunch 4 hours 12 min ago view
  • I have a lot of faith in Baez that he's going to turn into a more consistent, solid player. It looks like it took him about a half season or so of futility at the plate to figure out he was not talented enough to get away with the crazy approach he had. I think his running game will eventually have a more measured aggression.

    Charlie 8 hours 6 min ago view
  • I hope the D and bullpen show up. Cubs haven't had much luck against Davies, and he's been going well lately. A little uncomfortable with the Cards only 6.5 back--feels like they're right on our tails compared to the 11 game lead I've grown accustomed to.

    Charlie 8 hours 11 min ago view
  • Cardinals, stop that. Right now.

    billybucks 9 hours 4 min ago view
  • In a year or two, a lot of fans are going to point at trading him as a mistake. He'll probably be slashing something like 280/400/480 for Seattle at the time. Of course, by WAR, he'll still be worth less than 3, since we're talking zero defensive value.

    John Beasley 10 hours 8 min ago view
  • vogelbomb debut for tacoma (AAA SEA)... 3-3, 1bb, 1 HR, 1 double...DH'd.

    while he mostly played 1st considerably more than DH for AAA CHC, DJ Peterson is probably going to see most of the time at 1st for AAA SEA.

    crunch 18 hours 34 min ago view
  • Carl Jr.! Very nice!

    Baez with another "WTF?" play trying a delayed steal with a runner on 3rd and one out.. Remarkable talent, needs to make better decisions.

    billybucks 19 hours 31 min ago view
  • m.montgomery up in the pen with a man on 2nd, 2 out, and rondon 20 pitches into the inning.

    ...and rondon ends it 22 pitches in with a popout to RF.

    crunch 19 hours 40 min ago view