Cubs Hits Of The Week (For the Week of 4/7 through 4/13)

The five hits that did the most to enhance the Cubs' chance of winning during the past, exhausting, extra-inning-filled week, as measured by FanGraphs' Win Probability Added (WPA):


#5 Big Hit:
Sunday v. Philadelphia, 3rd inning--Derrek Lee socked a two-run double off 67-year-old Jamie Moyer to give the Cubs a 3-1 lead they would eventually surrender. WPA .182


#4 Big Hit:
Thursday v. Pittsburgh, 6th inning--Geovany Soto put the Cubs in front of the Pirates to stay with a two-run, sixth-inning bomb against Matt Morris, who, just because of how many times he beat the Cubs as a Cardinal, had it coming to him. WPA .257


#3 Big Hit:
Sunday v. Philadelphia, 10th inning--With the Cub bench thinned by substitutions in yet another extra-inning game, Carlos Zambrano entered the game as a pinch-hitter with teammates at first and second and one out. Zambrano slapped a would-be double-play ball but Phillies second baseman Chase Utley's errant throw allowed Zambrano to reach base and Ronny Cedeno to score with the eventual winning run.
"Z put the ball in play and he hustled," Mark DeRosa said. "That shows the character of this team." This play also showed the power of having the opposing team's second baseman muck up a double play at a critical juncture in a game. WPA .322


#2 Big Hit:
Wednesday v. Pittsburgh, 15th inning--When Felix Pie came to bat with two men on and two out in the 11th inning of this game, Ron Santo's radio commentary consisted of something between a sigh of resignation and a groan. Pie then rolled out. Four innings later, with two outs and the bases loaded, Pie, facing reliever Phil Dumatrait, had another chance and on this occasion, he sliced a single to short leftfield, plating Kevin Hart and Ryan Theriot with the runs that allowed the Cubs to finally dump the Bucs. WPA .387


#1 Big Hit:
Wednesday v. Pittsburgh, 14th inning--An inning before Pie's timely hit, Aramis Ramirez clubbed a Dumatrait pitch deep into the Pittsburgh night to give the visitors a 4-2 lead...that lasted for all of about 15 minutes. WPA .484

Comments

http://6-4-2.blogspot.com/2008/04/great-greg-maddu...

But when Brad Penny and Maddux were teammates on the Dodgers, during the last two months of 2006, they had a conversation one day that led Penny to reach a stunning conclusion: This guy knows my stuff better than I do. It was eerie, really, how easily Maddux dissected Penny's repertoire and suggested ways to maximize it. Penny, figuring he'd take advantage of the situation, asked Maddux to call a game for him against the Cubs. And so, on the night of Sept. 13, Penny glanced into the dugout before every delivery and found Maddux, who signaled the next pitch by looking toward different parts of the ballpark. Penny threw seven scoreless innings with no walks and beat the Cubs 6-0. "Maddux probably won't tell you that story," Penny says. He's right.

cal ripken jr. would be proud.

If you're a subscriber, you can now listen to their flagship station online instead of hauling the radio around everywhere.

Neat.

I've been listening online to XM since about a year and a half ago, I'd have never made it through the past few semesters of exams without it. It doesn't have the sports channels, though.

Although I guess you could be talking about that? That'd certainly be awesome, I had to "watch" Friday's game on mlb.com's gamewhatever, and I'd much rather be listening.

p.s., if you don't have XM ....get it. It's golden.

pretty sure it's new...it's just their XM home plate channel 175 that's available online. You don't get the individual games yet.

it's just their XM home plate channel 175 that's available online. You don't get the individual games yet.
---------
That's correct. Channel 175 (aka Home Plate) has been available online now for 2-3 weeks to subscribers. Channels 176-189 are not online and I haven't heard of any plans to add them.

ARam's two-run homer had a higher WPA than Pie's two-run single. I would have figured they would be equal, or Pie's at least would be higher since it came later in the game. Anyone know why the reverse is true?

My guess is that the loading of the bases pushed the Win Probability up, so Pie didn't have as far to move it when he got his hit. I would bet the win probability was about the same after each of the two hits, but Pie's didn't add as much.

I think you're exactly right. For anyone who cares, here is the Hardball Times piece from a couple years back which explains the concept in detail...

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-one-about-win-probability/

Dont really want to start the Fukudome is only signed for RF arguement but.....

If Lou's decision is Pie is unable to handle breaking ball pitches in the majors and if Fukudome is willing to play CF then Pie should be sent down and Murton recalled to play RF.

My personal preference would be putting Murton in LF, Fuku in CF and Soriano in RF. But thats too much switching around.

I really like Fuku's RF defense and Pie's defense in CF but if Pie is a liability with the bat then I will take the downgrade in defense to get someone who can hit. And no Reed Johnson isn't good enough in my opinion. His butt should be firmly planted on the bench.

Your ideal scenario is the same as mine, but it obviously won't happen. I don't think anyone can use the argument that Soriano might suffer from moving to RF though. He's sucked out loud at the plate while playing left this year, so moving him to right couldn't make anything worse.

I'd get on board with this, too. I'll wait another 4 or 5 weeks just make sure about where Felix stands. He could still get hot.

I don't care where you play Soriano and where you play Murton, but it'd be nice to get them both in there. The problem, at the current time, is that Murton is still struggling with power. While he is a very nice 10/25 at the plate to start the AAA season, all 10 of those hits are singles. He's 400/545/400. I've never been of the school that it's mandatory that your corner OFers hit a bunch of doubles and slug 500, but they have to come from somewhere. If Soto continues to hit for power, perhaps we can hide a low slugging percentage from Murton if he gets on base at a good clip.

On the flip side of that argument, we're doing no better now with Felix the way he's hitting. I'll give him another few weeks before I start calling for a move to be made, though.

in 1974 when Ron Santo rejected a trade to the Angels, the paragraph in the players agreement he invoked to block the deal became known as the Santo Clause.

I know it's not a key hit, but DLee's defensive gem yesterday in the 9th was huge. Not only another big day with the bat, but his glove and footwork on that play were awesome. Looks like the Big Fella is all the way back!

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/cubdoms-...

historical Cubbery for the off-day about the 1960's Cubs...1964 in particular.

why does Aramis' HR to put the Cubs up by 2 in the 14th have such a higher WPA than Pie's 2-RBI hit an inning later?

Check out the comments above -- Andrew's comment & djchi's reply: http://www.thecubreporter.com/2008/04/14/cubs-hits...

Duh. Thanks, JoeP.

Recent comments

Subscribe to Recent comments
The first 600 characters of the last 16 comments, click "View" to see rest of comment.
  • probably saturday depending on what they do with hammel (assuming friday for ham).

    crunch 1 hour 45 min ago view
  • Lester is going to get one more start, right? It sure would be nice to see him get a shot at 20 wins.

    Charlie 2 hours 16 min ago view
  • Nicely done! I think in my 10-14 games I went .500 or a little over. Strangely, I went to the Cards games they mostly lost (incl Saturday) and the one SF game they lost, plus a couple Brewers games they lost, too. I should have gone to just Reds games. But still - saw mostly very good baseball on the North Side this year. Regardless of what happens come October - the Cubs are positioned for some good times in the next 3-5 years.

    The E-Man 3 hours 41 min ago view
  • Attaboy!

    billybucks 4 hours 33 min ago view
  • First Cub victory at home this year for me!
    1-3
    Saw all four starters this year

    jacos 5 hours 57 min ago view
  • RIP Arnie. We could use a lot more like you -- a man who succeeded and failed on his own terms, a true original, and, finally, a remarkable example of graciousness towards others.

    billybucks 13 hours 53 min ago view
  • Cubs finish 33 over at home. I was, personally, one game over at 3-2, which was one of my better years in a while.

    I do hope that's the last time we see the Cardinals this year. A lot of power, which is dangerous, particularly in a short series, and they have really shut down KB all year.

    Oh, and Jon Lester? Damn!

    billybucks 14 hours 5 min ago view
  • Yes. Boating accident at 3AM. Very sad, but stupid. Young men do stupid things.

    billybucks 15 hours 52 sec ago view
  • lester puts 2 on and is taken out at 96 pitches. oh well.

    edwards in.

    crunch 15 hours 44 min ago view
  • 2 out in the 7th, lester at 84 pitches, ross taken out for the standing O.

    it's possible contreras will catch lester for another inning+.

    crunch 15 hours 51 min ago view
  • What a weird day.  Jose Fernandez and Arnold Palmer, but then Scully and, on a much more modest level, Ross....

    Transmission 16 hours 24 min ago view
  • d.ross gets his 2nd standing O on the night (last home game of the season)...hits HR #10...curtain call. baseball.

    crunch 16 hours 27 min ago view
  • as a fan, he only "owes" us the game on the field and not getting in the way of others on his team being ready to play (imo).

    it's exponentially worse to his family and friends, but this dude most likely had 15+ years of play left and even though he just turned 24 a couple months ago he had already established himself as a top guy in the game.

    crunch 19 hours 49 min ago view
  • Carrie Muskat [email protected]

    Updated #Cubs probs vs Pirates: Mon, Hendricks vs Kuhl; Tue, Lackey vs Vogelsong; Wed, Arrieta vs Taillon; Thu, Zastryzny vs Nova

    crunch 20 hours 11 min ago view
  • I know what you're trying to say, Charlie, that none of us feels what his loved ones must be feeling.

    On the other hand, what makes a death like this tragic is precisely the loss, based on Fernandez's youth and brilliance, to the baseball world.

    So, for example, we can say that Princess Diana's death meant more, in aggregate, to millions of admirers who didn't know her personally than to her loved ones.

    VirginiaPhil 20 hours 12 min ago view
  • boston pitching snags a couple of mlb team records...

    "Over nine innings of play, Boston's staff struck out 11 straight Tampa Bay Rays hitters Sunday, breaking the major-league record for most consecutive strikeouts in a game.

    The previous record was held by former New York Mets right-hander Tom Seaver, who struck out 10 straight hitters in 1970.

    Not only that, but with a strikeout to end the ninth, sending the game into extras, Boston's staff also struck out an MLB-record 21 batters over nine innings."

    crunch 20 hours 37 min ago view