Good News and a Mid-Day Buzz-Kill

Tonight when the Braves visit the Mets, former Cub Rick Sutcliffe will be in the ESPN broadcast booth for the first time since he was diagnosed with colon cancer during spring training. Sutcliffe, who has been receiving chemotherapy and radiation, is scheduled for surgery on June 16th, which he hopes will lead to a clean bill of health.

On an infinitely more mundate note, Dayn Perry at foxsports.com argues that the Cub Express must be seen as wobbly, given that Ryan Dempster appears to be pitching with a rabbit's foot or similar in his pocket--Dempster's .211 batting average against on Balls in Play is way below the normal .290-.300 range--Carlos Marmol is on pace for an ungodly number of innings pitched, and Jason Marquis is just not very good.

Perry does, however, end on this semi-upbeat note:

If they do get to the postseason, then they'll have the kind of team
that's built to succeed in that environment. Teams with good defenses,
high-strikeout pitching staffs, and dominating closers tend to do well
in the playoffs, and all of that describes this year's Cubs model.

...the team defense has been exceptional, and the
pitching staff ranks third in the NL in whiffs. As for the closer
thing, Kerry Wood has looked strong save for two isolated bad outings.
If he continues to grow into the role, then the Cubs will have a real
shot at ending their comically long title drought.

Of course, unless the pitching holds up, they won't get the chance.

Comments

Jason Marquis is just not very good.

Wait... you mean our 5th starter is not very good? Shocking.

How many teams have "very good" 5th starters?

And of course Perry ignores the fact that Hill (who WILL probably get better) and Marshall are in AAA and can step in to the rotation, and Kevin Hart isn't far behind.

I don't think the issue is that we need a Cy Young candidate pitching in the fifth spot.

The issue is that, if one assumes Zambrano and Lilly are solid, then you have: the control-challenged and arguably very lucky Dempster; the unproven Gallagher and Hart: Hill, who, by his manager's own acknowledgement, is so messed up that he could benefit from a stress break on the Disabled List; and Sean Marshall.

That's why I think at least a little anxiety is warranted.

To call Dempster "lucky" simply because of his BABIP is not entirely accurate since he is ignoring the fact that Ryan has gotten 53 of his outs in 63IP through K's which means he is in full control of those outs and not dependent on luck.

Yeah, and Dempster has thrown 63 innings, that's 189 outs. It's a large enough sample size that no statistician is going to easliy conclude that mere luck is involved.

Put differently, at this point in the season it seems more reasonable to conclude that something has improved in Dempster's game than to conclude that he's simply been lucky for 2 months.

And while we're at it, going into the 2008 season, the odds of Dempster being this good/hot were probably about the same as Hill crapping the bed and being dumped down to AAA. Similarly, the odds of Howry sucking and Eyre being injured were probably about the same as Wood staying healthy and Marmol continuing to be excellent. This stuff tends to even out -- it's not like the Cubs have caught nothing but good breaks this year.

a .211 BABIP is virtually impossible....

The league leader the last two years was Chris Young (Welcome to Petco) and he had a .237 in 2006 and .265 in 2008. Most pitchers are around the .300 mark.  Even if he bucks the trend to something like a .270 to .280 BABIP, that'll do considerable damage to his ERA.

 

 

I wonder how many more "not very good" outings we will have to wait until Marshall is added to the rotation. I have been a fan of Marshall for a while, and I believe that he has more upside than does Rich Hill. Maybe it wont be too much longer and the Cubs will be willing to eat that terrible contract of Marquis.

marshall should be here in another week or 2.

gallagher is holding the slot for him. he's gonna have to be impressive to keep the job vs. marshall.

Who in the division has better overall pitching?

Astros have Oswalt, Valverde and nothing else, Brewers have Sheets and nothing else, Cards seem to be doing it with mirrors and Izzy is a mess.

Maybe the Reds -- if Arroyo gets turned around and the kids keep pitching well, plus they've got Cordero in the pen.

So which SP will we acquire before the trading deadline? It's never too early to speculate about this. ;-)

/go go sledge-o-matic

If I were to rank them as of today, my guess would be (in order)

1. AJ Burnett
2. Joe Blanton
3. Andy Pettitte
4. Greg Maddux
5. Mike Mussina
6. Roger Clemens
7. Mark Prior (turns and runs away from the keyboard)

You'd better run, punk!

Heh. I came up with some of those names. I was quick to drop Prior and Trachsel from consideration, though. ;)

Burnett seems possible. Others in the maybe pile are Jason Jennings (really doing badly this year, but so are the Rangers), Odalis Perez (ditto, s/Rangers/Nats/), and if the White Sox put away their division, perhaps we'll see Livan Hernandez (actually doing pretty well this year) or CC Sabathia (change to the NL might do him good). More... Randy Wolf, Kip Wells, Brett Tomko...

All of a sudden, our Iowa crew is looking pretty competitive. :-)

Well, I would argue with Dayn about the pace the Cubs are on. It seems to me that if we keep the present winning percentages (19-8, 9-10) up we would win ~57 at home and ~38 on the road and that adds up to a more reasonable 94-95 not 100+.

Yesterday the winning percentage was .622, which equates to 100 wins. The Cubs won't be able to sustain that, but it's a nice dream.

the biggest & brightest of the red flags waved in the article is Marmol's workload; he is money that can't just be spent; some of it [him] must be saved for later, but how do you NOT use him?

Apparently Lou can't!

My hope is that this José Ascanio kid takes a step forward into Lou's good graces. That along with Angel Guzman's late season return should be enough to make Lou lighten Marmol's workload.
Hopefully it won't be too late.

Counting on Guzman is like the Padres counting on Prior.

Lou using Marmol to protect a 6 run lead like he did a couple of weeks ago is stupid.

Was that the day that he pitched after not pitching in 6 days?

Could be I'll check.

Yes. Even then people were mad about it, but I don't see how you justify NOT pitching him after 6 days.

I was half joking.

Stranger things have happened though. Woody has been healthy all year!!!

Understood Doc!

After three days rest-

Apr 22 NYM W 8-1 - 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 14.1 1.88
Apr 21 NYM W 7-1 - 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 13.1 2.02

After 4 days rest-
Apr 30 MIL W 19-5

Okay to be fair and correct

Cubs scored 4 runs and 5 runs respectivley the inning after Marmol pitched in both Mets' games.

Thanks... I was just going to point that out.

The only "bad" situation I saw was May 10th, where he pitched with a 5 run lead after pitching the day before.

I know he had time off before, but the 19-5 Milwaukee game was irritating too.

So to finish my thought, Lou needs to plan that the Cubs will finish big in games and there for does not need Marmol in some close games.

GOT IT!?!!?

I just hope the kid's arm doesn 't fall off.

Me, too - I worry that his overuse in the early part of this season may reap bad dividends if someone else doesn't step up soon. It'd be nice if our veterans like Weurtz and Eyre could start to show something - Weurtz has almost as many innings as Marmol at this point, but his performance has been kind of fugly.

Weurtz has a 3.13 ERA. Not exactly Marmol, but who is? Hardly ugly.

why can't a reliever pitch 100 innings? this concept is so strange.

I think this is a very fair question. If I remember correctly, PAP is not a Chadball™ approved stat; nonetheless, I would be interested in some sort of PAP-like stat that looked at relief pitchers. PAP relies heavily on pitch count which for a relief pitcher is obviously not a reliable thing to measure when attempting to gauge potential for injury.

Any of you freakin' geniuses have any ideas on how this could be assessed?

"Any of you freakin' geniuses have any ideas on how this could be assessed?"

you put a human being out there to watch the guy.

you talk to him after performing and the day(s) afterward.

you work him again.

return to step 2...and reassess.

carlos zambrano says hello.

all humans are not created equal.

And how do you put that in a spreadsheet college boy?

you gotta use a LOT of special characters and some real basement rocking algorithms.

seriously, though...best way to know what you got is to use it and see how it reacts.

its not an exact science, then again neither is treating every pitcher like they have the same body/genetics/build.

long story short...there is no sure thing, just guidelines to feel out what you got...rest is pushing it to find the dude's ceiling and stamina.

Meh. I want predictive algorithms!! Cut the humanities crap and give me some math!!

My guess at the process to track this...

- Track pitch counts per outing

- Track number of days used in a row

- Track number of days off between outings

- Track pitch types and velocities

- Track injuries

- Track performance ups and downs 

Feed it into HAL and analyze...

WTMF?

Cubs
Theriot, SS
Fukudome, RF
Lee, 1B
Ramirez, 3B
Hoffpauir, LF
Soto, C
Edmonds, CF
DeRosa, 2B
Gallagher, P

is this abomination true?

I agree...why the fuck is Edmonds playing?

I kid...I kid.

I assume Soriano has an owie or they want to give him 2 days off. 

I was thinking about this. Today's game is far more important than this weekend's games as we have totally pwned the pirates. We should be playing our best today and rest them vs. the buccaroos.

it's may...there's nothing important about today's game.

Left Field in Houston is pretty easy, I mean Carlos Lee almost looks good out there and the Pirates throw 3 lefties verse us this weekend. If they wanted to give him a day off, today was the day. You definitely don't want Hoffpauir out there in PNC Park.

Lou keeps trying to give Derrek one I heard, but I'm guessing Derrek keeps telling him to put him in.

 

theriot/fukudome/dlee/aram....

lou does read TCR...

now if he could only apply that when soriano is back.

the 2hr .400 ob% guy batting 2nd...a 10hr .300 ob% guy not leading off...

fuku has more SB than soriano, fwiw...which is just about nothing since its only 1. still...

and yeah, i could care less who's sick of soriano-batting-1st or not...and yes, i know he's probably still gonna be leading off...maybe this year he'll get more RBIs than extra base hits.

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  • I love sabremetrics and think FIP and WAR can definitely predict future success. For the Cy though which is an award for current success I do think ERA and WHIP have a place. Also while Hendricks doesn't have the strikeouts he does have the highest soft hit contact and second lowest hard hit contact which does a lot to take fielding skill out of it.

    To me if the ERA is close FIP and WAR should be used but right now its not. That said I agree with you Hendricks won't get it.

    johann 9 sec ago view
  • Can't get soft just because we have a big lead!

    billybucks 1 hour 4 min ago view
  • kershaw will be lucky to put in 160+ip. even though it projects to be an awesome 160+ip it's going to be extremely difficult for him to do much with that. he's still got minor league rehab game(s) to go through and he's only stretched out to 2ip with his last simulated rehab...it may take another couple weeks before he returns.

    the numbers are awesome, but he's lost the equivalent of a good chunk of a top-tier pen arm's season in innings of work compared to the rest of the lot.

    crunch 1 hour 15 min ago view
  • Kershaw, Fernandez and Syndergaard are your current leaders and all will be pitching meaningful games down the stretch that could make or break them. Hendricks will not be and his saber-numbers aren't anywhere close to those 3 and he'd split votes with Arrieta and Lester whom all are basically neck-and-neck for  WAR and FIP. If Kershaw pitches like just okay Kershaw in September he deserves to win in a landslide. Voters are pretty much saber-inclined now so it would take a crazy shutout streak or something for Hendricks to jump in the picture.

    Rob G. 9 hours 44 min ago view
  • AZ PHIL: With starters the likes of Edwin Jackson, even Chris Rusin or Michael Bowden could look good on their staff. At best, he is a #5-6. But as always, LH are at a premium.

    The E-Man 11 hours 14 min ago view
  • Sure we would all want consistency. He is not even 24, has played 5 (!) positions this year. Can you imagine what is in his head? He was only a part-time player at 2 spots last year. And THEN think about hitting?? Cut him some slack...You sure are picky lately. First wishing #6 NL RBI guy Russell have a better average, and now an "unncessarily fancy pick". Geez tough crowd!

    The E-Man 11 hours 18 min ago view
  • it's going to be hard to take down scherzer.

    kershaw is supposedly coming back soon, though he'll probably need a good amount of deep innings to match up with scherzer...probably too late at this point. tanner roark, bumgarner, and hendricks are probably going to steal some votes along with kershaw.

    crunch 11 hours 46 min ago view
  • I absolutely love Javy's game, and I love the way Maddon changed the perception of him as a ballplayer, but I really wish he would just make the routine plays routinely. On the ground ball in the 9th, he made an unnecessarily fancy pick. He made the play, but tried the same thing last night and made an error.

    billybucks 12 hours 8 min ago view
  • How many wins does Kyle need for serious Cy Young consideration? Would 17 be enough if he leads the league in ERA? My goodness, what a season -- makes a Dartmouth alum proud.

    billybucks 12 hours 10 min ago view
  • jacos 12 hours 13 min ago view
  • hendricks WHIP drops to 0.98 over 159 innings after throwing 7ip 3h 1bb 4k, 0r/er

    ERA down to 2.09 on the season.

    crazy good.

    crunch 12 hours 35 min ago view
  • I am pretty well fed up with the majority of home plate umps. Just terrible inconsistencies.

    The E-Man 12 hours 38 min ago view
  • Oh shit forgot about that
    Shark and Sczur right?

    jacos 12 hours 53 min ago view
  • Yes, football player?- check.

    The E-Man 13 hours 35 sec ago view
  • jacos 13 hours 14 min ago view
  • If it was 2006 Hendry would be there w a Bible and a contract
    https://mobile.twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/77...

    jacos 15 hours 46 min ago view