Ex-Cub Factor

The phrase "ex-Cub factor" has been thrown around quite a bit. It was
originally coined by writer and Cub fan Ron Berler, who wrote an
article in 1981 stating that since the Yankees of that season had five
ex-Cubs on their roster, they were doomed to lose the World Series if
they got there. He was right -- they lost to the Dodgers in six games.

Up until 2001, the curse of the ex-Cub had been almost
complete. Since the Cubs last won the NL pennant in 1945, only once had
a team with three or more ex-Cubs won the World Series. That was the
1960 Pirates, and Berler even manages to explain that anomaly away in
his article.

In 2001, though, the Arizona Diamondbacks won the championship
with a healthy contingent of ex-Cubs: Mark Grace, Luis Gonzalez, Mike
Morgan, and Miguel Batista. It would appear that the curse has been
broken, and Mark Grace even said as much during a post-game interview.
In response, all I can say is it's pretty interesting that the World
Series to which this one has most been compared is the 1960 Series, won
by the Pirates. In both cases, the National League team beat the New
York Yankees in the bottom of the 9th inning of the 7th game of the
Series. Coincidience? Or SOMETHING MORE???

You can now read the entire original Ex-Cub Factor article right here. Special thanks to Ron Berler, and as always to Mark McClusky, for bringing this website to Berler's attention.

2003 Update: How will the ex-Cub factor affect
this year's playoff race? Well, here are the teams in the playoff races
and the ex-Cub contingent on their rosters:

Atlanta (4): Will Cunnane, Matt Franco, Ray King, Greg Maddux
San Francisco (3): Benito Santiago, Tim Worrell, Eric Young
New York Yankees (2): Felix Heredia, Jon Lieber (DL)
Cubs (2): Doug Glanville, Mark Guthrie
Houston (2): Orlando Merced, Jose Vizcaino
Florida (1): Lenny Harris
Boston (1): Bill Mueller
Oakland (1): Micah Bowie (DL)
Minnesota: None

As usual, the Braves look to be in trouble when it comes to
ex-Cubs in the playoffs. Maddux will be on the post-season roster, and
I imagine Franco will be, too. That leaves the two relief pitchers.
Cunnane has been effective in John Smoltz's absence, so he very well
may make the playoff roster. If he does, the Braves are doomed.
Likewise the Giants, who feature ex-Cubs at starting catcher and
closer. Eric Young was acquired as insurance against Ray Durham's
injury. With Durham healthy, Felipe Alou would be wise to leave Young
off the October roster unless he wants to treat fans to a repeat of
last year's heartbreak.

I've been tracking the ex-Cub factor for the past few years,
and Carl Condon has gone back to the earliest days of the World Series
to track The Factor. I have combined the work he and I have done and I
am in the process of making it available on the Historical Ex-Cub Factor page. You'll see that the Curse of the Ex-Cub has held true almost perfectly throughout the years.

Is there a lesson to be learned from this? I think so. If you find your team in a pennant race, RELEASE ANYONE WHO USED TO BE ON THE CUBS. It's really pretty simple. Guys like Shawon Dunston and Mike Morgan might help you get into the playoffs, but you'd better ditch them come playoff time.

2002 UPDATE: Angels (one ex-Cub) defeat Giants (three ex-Cubs) in World Series. Ex-Cub Factor fulfilled for the 20th time.

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  • It's still very early but this game felt very important to me and probably knocked 2 years off my life. Seemed like every inning was big.

    johann 17 min 33 sec ago view
  • Yes then they moved him two spot then not so much, back batting 7th

    jacos 17 min 50 sec ago view
  • This is the exact game that the Cubs would have lost in years past to the Cardinals.

    The E-Man 18 min 17 sec ago view
  • Arrieta starting. Leads of 6-1 and 9-4. You don't expect to have such a sense of relief when they win.

    Brick 19 min 1 sec ago view
  • phew

    Rob G. 19 min 15 sec ago view
  • At least the end result was worth the wait.

    Rob Richardson 19 min 31 sec ago view
  • I guess he's better than what they've had. He started out like the Babe there.

    The E-Man 28 min 19 sec ago view
  • Fair enough, but Castro isn't really very good.

    Rob Richardson 48 min 45 sec ago view
  • I can just hear Pat Hughes chortling "typical Cubs-Cards game..."

    JoePepitone 51 min 4 sec ago view
  • As long as Maddon uses him against RH he is good. Against LH - not so much.

    His recent HR's obviously have not been great pitches.

    So, let's just say my personal confidence in the guy is not there yet.

    The E-Man 54 min 39 sec ago view
  • not that I'm agreeing with E-Man in anyway here, but Warren's FIP and peripherals are not really good (5.20 FIP/5.19 BB/9/.128 BABIP), although his actual results are a lot better. Well until today...

    Trade was also to make room for Zobrist and it'll be a few years before we can really judge it.

    Rob G. 56 min 44 sec ago view
  • Eventually, the Maddon "play everyone everywhere" thing was going to create a problem.

    billybucks 1 hour 3 min ago view
  • This ump blows.

    Ryno 1 hour 14 min ago view
  • So much for pace-of-game.

    Ryno 1 hour 14 min ago view
  • Adam Warren who is 3-1 with a 2.08 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP, and Castro who is hitting 269/303/415?

    Rob Richardson 1 hour 16 min ago view
  • That Molina with the arm out thing was ridiculous and blatant. Wonder if he can get fined for that

    johann 1 hour 20 min ago view