Ex-Cub Factor

The phrase "ex-Cub factor" has been thrown around quite a bit. It was
originally coined by writer and Cub fan Ron Berler, who wrote an
article in 1981 stating that since the Yankees of that season had five
ex-Cubs on their roster, they were doomed to lose the World Series if
they got there. He was right -- they lost to the Dodgers in six games.

Up until 2001, the curse of the ex-Cub had been almost
complete. Since the Cubs last won the NL pennant in 1945, only once had
a team with three or more ex-Cubs won the World Series. That was the
1960 Pirates, and Berler even manages to explain that anomaly away in
his article.

In 2001, though, the Arizona Diamondbacks won the championship
with a healthy contingent of ex-Cubs: Mark Grace, Luis Gonzalez, Mike
Morgan, and Miguel Batista. It would appear that the curse has been
broken, and Mark Grace even said as much during a post-game interview.
In response, all I can say is it's pretty interesting that the World
Series to which this one has most been compared is the 1960 Series, won
by the Pirates. In both cases, the National League team beat the New
York Yankees in the bottom of the 9th inning of the 7th game of the
Series. Coincidience? Or SOMETHING MORE???

You can now read the entire original Ex-Cub Factor article right here. Special thanks to Ron Berler, and as always to Mark McClusky, for bringing this website to Berler's attention.

2003 Update: How will the ex-Cub factor affect
this year's playoff race? Well, here are the teams in the playoff races
and the ex-Cub contingent on their rosters:

Atlanta (4): Will Cunnane, Matt Franco, Ray King, Greg Maddux
San Francisco (3): Benito Santiago, Tim Worrell, Eric Young
New York Yankees (2): Felix Heredia, Jon Lieber (DL)
Cubs (2): Doug Glanville, Mark Guthrie
Houston (2): Orlando Merced, Jose Vizcaino
Florida (1): Lenny Harris
Boston (1): Bill Mueller
Oakland (1): Micah Bowie (DL)
Minnesota: None

As usual, the Braves look to be in trouble when it comes to
ex-Cubs in the playoffs. Maddux will be on the post-season roster, and
I imagine Franco will be, too. That leaves the two relief pitchers.
Cunnane has been effective in John Smoltz's absence, so he very well
may make the playoff roster. If he does, the Braves are doomed.
Likewise the Giants, who feature ex-Cubs at starting catcher and
closer. Eric Young was acquired as insurance against Ray Durham's
injury. With Durham healthy, Felipe Alou would be wise to leave Young
off the October roster unless he wants to treat fans to a repeat of
last year's heartbreak.

I've been tracking the ex-Cub factor for the past few years,
and Carl Condon has gone back to the earliest days of the World Series
to track The Factor. I have combined the work he and I have done and I
am in the process of making it available on the Historical Ex-Cub Factor page. You'll see that the Curse of the Ex-Cub has held true almost perfectly throughout the years.

Is there a lesson to be learned from this? I think so. If you find your team in a pennant race, RELEASE ANYONE WHO USED TO BE ON THE CUBS. It's really pretty simple. Guys like Shawon Dunston and Mike Morgan might help you get into the playoffs, but you'd better ditch them come playoff time.

2002 UPDATE: Angels (one ex-Cub) defeat Giants (three ex-Cubs) in World Series. Ex-Cub Factor fulfilled for the 20th time.

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  • There's some BA is missing too, here's all signing bonus BA doesn't have some:

    -6 Hockin $241,000 (slot price), 7 Cruz $75,000 (saved $110,00), 8 Ridlings $120,000 (saved $53,800), 9 Robinson $30,000 (saved $132,300), so far the Cubs have saved an extra $297,100

    cubbies.4ever 14 min 1 sec ago view
  • per Muscat...
    Zobrist (2B), Hayward (CF), Bryant (3B), Rizzo, Contreras (LF), Montero, Russell, Coghlan (RF), Hammel

    Cubster 22 min 43 sec ago view
  • Also -- despite losing 6 of their last 10, the Cubs picked up a game on both STL and PIT during that period. Weird, given that they swept PIT and were swept by STL.

    billybucks 22 min 46 sec ago view
  • Also, I'd like to know if there are numbers to back up my suspicion that there are a lot more fast starts than late June romps. This seems like a time where everybody not named Willson Contreras is looking a little tired and/or banged up a bit.

    For once, the Cubs got off to a fast start. Seems like I've been waiting for that for 50 years.Everybody is really gunning for this team, too. It's their playoffs.

    Old and Blue 1 hour 47 min ago view
  • He reminds me of a little of a young guy currently on the Cubs' DL, who is also tank-like in appearance.

    Old and Blue 2 hours 3 min ago view
  • draft signings are trickling in...rounds 6-9 are signed + a random slew of others.

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/draftdb/index.php

    filter by team.

    crunch 10 hours 50 min ago view
  • Former Major League All-Star Jim Hickman dies at 79

    http://www.tennessean.com/story/sports/2016/06/25/...

    QuietMan 11 hours 54 min ago view
  • Yep...sort of. Matheny says Rosenthal will no longer pitch the 9th, and they will mix/match Oh, Siegrist and Broxton.

    billybucks 12 hours 13 min ago view
  • Duane Underwood now 0-5 with a 5.44 ERA for Tenn. Urp. Warren not sharp at Iowa tonight. When will Cease and Hudson be ready?

    On a positive note, Jiminez with his 10th HR tonight. He has a .924 OPS -- the only player in the league with an OPS over .900. Leads the lead in 2B, SLG and OPS, tied for the league lead in HR and 3rd in Avg. Nice!

    billybucks 12 hours 18 min ago view
  • - The pressure of going for the regular-season wins record is now gone.
    - Joe will come up with more wacky dress-up ideas for the team to wear after they lose their next get-away game.
    - There is more clarity on Spencer Patton.
    - We play the Reds next. They aren't very good.
    - We'll have at least a 9 game lead after today.
    EDIT: - Contreras looks like the real deal.

    Other than that, not much -- nasty stretch. Two ugly losses in the last 4 games.
    Ugh -- give Lackey a 4-1 lead, you hope for better.

    billybucks 14 hours 19 min ago view
  • Joe: "We lost. They beat us. Now where's my '09 Guigal Bordeaux glass...?

    The E-Man 15 hours 16 min ago view
  • I forgot how rail thin skinny Carl Edwards Jr. Is - he threw some nasty stuff - hope that continues

    Eric S 15 hours 22 min ago view
  • HAHAHA! I love it here! Brilliant...

    The E-Man 15 hours 25 min ago view
  • "The pressure of going for the regular-season wins record is now gone."

    Brilliant. Maddon is a genius!

    Brick 15 hours 29 min ago view
  • "Drink copiously but responsibly."

    Done and done. Thanks for that.

    Brick 15 hours 30 min ago view
  • Oil Can Boyd now pitching for the Cubs

    Eric S 15 hours 39 min ago view