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First-Year Player Draft (MLB Rule 4 Draft)
Beginning with the 2022 First-Year Player Draft (or "MLB Rule 4 Draft"), the draft will be held over a three-day period between June 1st and July 20th.
NOTE: The draft will be held July 9-11 in 2023.
Beginning with the 2022 season and going forward, the draft will be twenty rounds.
Beginning with the 2023 draft:
1. Draft order for rounds #2 - #20 will be based upon the inverse order of winning percentages from the previous season. If the winning percentages of two or more clubs are the same, the club with the lowest winning percentage from the previous season picks first. If two or more clubs are still tied, league standings from two years back (or three years back, four years back, etc) are used to break the tie;
2. Draft order for the first six picks in the first round (only) will be determined by a weighted lottery similar to the one used the NBA. Only the 18 clubs that did not qualify for the post-season in the previous season are eligible to participate in the lottery.
NOTE: The 2023 MLB Rule 4 Draft draft lottery was held on 12/6 at the 2022 MLB Winter Meetings in San Diego. The Cubs fell back one slot and will pick 13th in the 1st round of the 2023 draft.
3. Draft order for the twelve clubs that did qualify for the post-season in the previous season will be determined by when the club was eliminated from contention in the post-season and that club's revenue-sharing and/or tax status, with the four Wild Card round losers selecting #19 - #22, the four LDS losers selecting #23 - #26, the two LCS losers selecting #27-#28, the World Series loser selecting #29, and the World Series winner selecting #30. Within the Wild Card losers, LDS losers, and LCS losers groups, draft order will be determined by whether the club received revenue sharing funds (higher pick), paid a Competitive Balance Tax (lower pick), or neither received revenue sharing funds nor paid a CBT (middle pick), with the tie-breaker the same as used in rounds #2 - #20.
Competitive Balance Rule 4 Draft picks are slotted in two groups (Competitive Balance Round "A" is slotted after the 1st Round, and Competitive Balance Round "B" is slotted between the 2nd and 3rd rounds).
NOTE: Beginning with the 2017 Rule 4 Draft, Competitive Balance draft picks will no longer be awarded by lottery. Rather, all clubs who qualify (the ten smallest market clubs and the ten lowest revenue clubs) will receive Competitive Balance draft picks in either Competitive Balance Round "A" (between the 1st & 2nd round) or in Competitive Balance Round "B" (between the 2nd & 3rd rounds), with each club alternating between the two rounds every-other year.
If an Article XX-B Qualified Player subsequently signs a Major League contract with another (different) MLB club prior to the MLB Rule 4 Draft (MLB First-Year Player Draft), the player's former club (the club that lost the Qualified Player) normally will receive a compensatory draft pick in the MLB Rule 4 Draft between the 2nd & 3rd rounds (after Competitive Balance Round "B").
EXCEPTIONS: An MLB club that receives revenue sharing funds would receive a compensatory draft pick immediately after the conclusion of the 1st round (prior to Competitive Balance Round "A") - IF - the Qualified Player signs a contract worth at least $50M (the club would receive a compensatory draft pick between the 2nd & 3rd rounds and after Competitive Balance Round "B" if the Qualified Player signs a contract worth less than $50M), and an MLB club that is a Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) payor (club's payroll from the previous season exceeded the so-called "Luxury Tax") would receive a draft pick between the 4th & 5th rounds.
NOTE: If more than one club receives the same type of compensatory pick, the draft order for the comp picks is the same as it is for all other rounds in that draft (clubs select in inverse order of league standings from the previous season, and in the case of two clubs finishing with the same record the previous season, league standings from two seasons back will be used to break the tie, and if If the clubs are still tied, league standings from three seasons back, four seasons back, etc, will be used to break the tie).
CUBS ARTICLE XX-B QUALIFIED PLAYERS POST-2023 (last updated 11-6-2023):
Cody Bellinger, OF-1B
An MLB club that signs an Article XX-B player who was extended a Qualifying Offer from his previous club forfeits its 2nd highest selection in the next MLB Rule 4 Draft and $500,000 is subtracted from its assigned International Signing Bonus Pool (ISBP) in the next full International Signing Period (ISP).
EXCEPTIONS: An MLB club that receives revenue sharing funds would surrender its 3rd highest selection in the draft but nothing is subtracted from the club's ISBP in the next full ISP, and an MLB club that is a CBT payer (club's payroll from the previous season exceeded the so-called "Luxury Tax") would forfeit its 2nd & 5th selection in the draft and have $1,000,000 subtracted from its ISBP in the next ISP.
NOTE: The Competitive Balance Tax threshold will be $230M in 2022, $233M in 2023, $237M in 2024, $241M in 2025, and $244M in 2026.
POST-2023 ARTICLE XX-B QUALIFIED PLAYERS SIGNED BY CUBS (last updated 11-15-2023):
NONE AT THIS TIME
The next highest Rule 4 Draft pick (or draft picks) will be forfeited if a club signs more than one Article XX-B player who was extended a Qualifying Offer from his previous club (one draft pick forfeited for each Qualified Player signed).
NOTE: A CBT payer (club's payroll from the previous season exceeded the so-called "Luxury Tax") would forfeit its 3rd & 6th highest selections if the club signs a second Qualified Player, its 4th & 7th selections if the club signs a third Qualified Player, and its 8th & 9th highest selections, 10th & 11th highest selections, etc, for additional Qualified Players signed.
Draft picks subject to forfeiture include the club's own Rule 4 Draft picks, compensatory draft picks awarded to the club after losing an Article XX-B Qualified Player, and draft picks awarded as the result of the Rule 4 SBP Forfeited Draft Pick lottery (including draft picks that were subsequently acquired in a trade). Competitive Balance draft picks (including Competitive Balance draft picks acquired in a trade) and a compensatory draft pick awarded to a club for failing to sign a pick from a previous Rule 4 Draft are - NOT - subject to forfeiture.
NOTE: Prior to the 2018 MLB Rule 4 Draft, Competitive Balance draft picks were subject to forfeiture.
A Rule 4 Draft pick forfeited as the result of a club signing an Article XX-B player who was extended a Qualifying Offer from his previous club is not transferred to any other club (it just disappears).
Beginning with the 2018 Rule 4 Draft, any MLB club that had a payroll from the previous season that was $40M or more above the Competitive Balance Tax threshold will have its highest draft selection moved down ten slots, unless its first selection is among the top six picks in the draft, in which case it will have its second-highest draft slot moved down ten slots.
NOTE: In determining whether a club would have its highest or second-highest draft pick moved down ten slots, the six "protected" picks at the top of the 1st round would NOT include any compensation draft pick received by a club for failing to sign a 1st round draft pick from a previous draft -- these compensatory draft picks are already "protected."
Recent comments
TarzanJoeWallis (view)
Teheran minor league deal is done, per MLB.
TarzanJoeWallis (view)
Based on Phil’s sound analysis it sounds like a no brainer for Almonte to be placed on waivers as today’s roster move. We shall see.
Arizona Phil (view)
I suspect Counsell/Hottovy will use the piggy-back extensively, with Taillon and Hendricks pitching as the "pig" (and with a very short leash) and some combo of Wicks, Brown, and Wesneski (whichever two do not start) as the "backers."
Keep in mind that Keegan Thompson has a minor league option available, and if Yency Almonte is not outrighted by 4/26 he cannot be sent to the minors without his consent after that date. Almonte is out of minor league options, so I am talking about him getting outrighted to the minors if he is not claimed off waivers, and if he is claimed off waivers, the Cubs save the pro-rated portion of his $1.9M salary, which helps lower the Cubs 2024 AAV.
Dolorous Jon Lester (view)
Totally agree. The 26 man roster very rarely consists of the 13 best position players and 13 best pitchers.
Dolorous Jon Lester (view)
Based on what Jed has done in the past, I’d say the plan is to
-give Hendricks another few starts
-give Taillon some runway ot get his season underway
-Mix and match in the bullpen and see what sticks
Jed usually doesn’t do a whole lot of waiver wire plays in-season, at least early in the season. He only reallly did that after he blew up the rosters in 21 and 22 because they needed bodies (guys like Schwindel, Fargas, etc).
I think he’s a little handcuffed by a full 40 man in that he can’t really maneuver much with giving anyone showing ability at AAA (R Thompson/ Sanders/ Edwards etc). Brewer has the most tenuous grip there, and we will see what kind of chance he gets. Other than his spot, there isn’t a ton of 40 man wiggle room.
I’m very curious to see what happens with Brown now that Taillon returns. Bullpen? Wicks to Iowa?
Childersb3 (view)
Pro teams have to play their "big money" guys if they are healthy and not "locker room" issues.
The Cubs wanted to deal JHey off well before they bought him out. They just didn't want to pay him to play for someone else for that long. Jed did give him 20+mil to play for LAD last yr.
Jed might also let Kyle walk at some point this year. Similar scenario to JHey, except Jed thought Kyle was going to be good/solid in '24!!
You'd think Smyly is in the same book as well. Same with Neris (he's a 1yr vet RP, so he's not really in this convo too much).
That's ~35mil between those three and those three are going to get opportunities until at least late June) over younger guys even if their performance is "iffy".
But, Jed is going to play Taillon a lot. They have to try and justify that contract and hope a veteran works out.
So, Taillon, Imanaga, and Hendricks are locks for the rest of April and probably May.
Assad, Brown and Wicks handle the last spots until Steele is ready.
Now, you're question has real merit when Steele comes back. That will interesting if Brown is still good and Hendricks is still bad. But Taillon is entirely safe as long as he's healthy.
And the bullpen moves were "money" based as well. Smyly has actually been okay. But he hasn't been clearly better than Little. Little had one bad outing. But Smyly makes 9mil. If they needed another RHRP and one of Little and Smyly had to go, it was going to Little. But that doesn't mean Smyly is one of the best 13 arms for the team.
Arizona Phil (view)
Childersb3: I think there was an issue with Luke Little coming into a game with men on base. He seems to need a "clean" inning to be dominant. So he is a future closer and needs to be used in that role at AAA. Same goes for Michael Arias. He needs to come into a "clean" inning, and is a future closer and needs to be used in that role at AA. Porter Hodge is a more versatile pitcher, a better version of Keegan Thompson (multi-inning RP). But Little, Arias, and Hodge (probably in that order) are the Cubs top three RP prospects (all three are Cubs Top 15 prospects).
TarzanJoeWallis (view)
So, let’s do a little war gaming. Taillon is back for tonight’s game. He pitched two rehab games, just a few innings each, and not especially sharp. Let’s face it, he hasn’t been lights out since the Cubs gave him the big contract. In other words, as flat out bad as Hendricks has been, the chances of Taillon being the savior don’t look exactly promising.
If Taillon is equally ineffective or perhaps even worse, what’s the next move? Winning teams can often find a way to work around a dud fifth starter - kinda. Two dud starters make things much more difficult.
I believe the biggest reason for the recent bullpen moves was dissatisfaction with the recent blowing of big leads and the recognition that the bullpen wasn’t all it was thought to be. In other words, they are exploring alternate options and configurations. If similar juggling becomes necessary (even more so than it already is), what kind of reasonable maneuvering do we think could be explored?
Childersb3 (view)
Cubdom needs to prepare themselves for Wicks to be sent to Iowa for Taillon to come up.
Ben Brown has 4 appearances. Wicks has 4 appearances.
Ben has 16.1 IP. Wicks has 17 IP
Ben was a 1.1 WHIP. Wicks has a 1.7 WHIP. Wicks does have significantly more SOs.
Ben has been better, though.
I love Wicks. I think he's a fighter and his stuff has improved.
But, Jed isn't ditching Hendricks just yet. He should. But he won't.
Hendricks should go to the IL and Taillon-Imanaga-Assad-Wicks-Brown should be the rotation.
Wont' happen though.
Childersb3 (view)
AZ Phil,
Did you agree with the demotion of Luke Little? He'd been pretty good up until the AZ/wild pitch appearance. I know that can't jettison Smyly (just yet) so they didn't need another LHRP. Especially with Leiter effectively being a LHRP. I still thought he deserved to stay. It's not permanent. He'll be back. Lots of moves to come with Taillon, Steele and other guys coming and going.
Also, do you see Hodge being able to "control/command" his stuff to get a chance this year?
Is Arias better than Hodge? Thanks