Goat Riders of the Apocalypse held a terrific roundtable concerning the relationship between sports bloggers and sports journalists earlier this month, featuring Paul Sullivan, Bruce Miles, Will Carroll and Paul Lukas.
THT, BP (with their PECOTA Projections) and Szymborski each employs a unique methodology, which I won’t even try to summarize or explain. Regardless, I thought it would be worthwhile to stack all three sets of Cub player predictions side by side, focusing on the eight likely starting position players plus Cliff Floyd, the five starting pitchers including Wade Miller, and the closer, Ryan Dempster.The THT numbers come from their most excellent season preview book featuring the work of one Rob G.; the Baseball Prospectus numbers come from BP 2007; and I pulled the ZIPS Projections from the Baseball Think Factory site. (Thanks again, Dan, for your permission to use them here.)
Also, to round out the field, I consulted my old friend, Phil, a very smart, very dedicated Cub fan who can calculate slugging percentages in his head and who, coincidentally, turned me on to The Cub Reporter what seems like a very long time ago. Phil employed no simulation models or complicated algorithms in coming up with his picks, but rather, a time-honored technique called educated guesswork that took about 15 minutes.
- Who holds the single-season record for most home runs by a Cubs rookie?
- Who has hit the most home runs as a pitcher in Cubs history...bonus if you can name how many?
- In 1962, The Chicago Cubs used the first African American Major League Baseball coach. Who was he?
- Who was the youngest pitcher in Chicago Cubs history?
- Name the winningest left-handed pitcher in Cubs history...by total number of wins?
Oil Can Boyd now pitching for the Cubs
- The pressure of going for the regular-season wins record is now gone.
- Joe will come up with more wacky dress-up ideas for the team to wear after they lose their next get-away game.
- There is more clarity on Spencer Patton.
- We play the Reds next. They aren't very good.
- We'll have at least a 9 game lead after today.
Other than that, not much -- nasty stretch. Two ugly losses in the last 4 games.
Ugh -- give Lackey a 4-1 lead, you hope for better.
It's a long season. There will be stretches like this. It's Saturday night. Drink copiously but responsibly.
That valuable RBIGIDP.
Someone talk me down here.
I remember AZ PHIL talking about Bour's power during the Hendry era.
Time to scrap the scouting report on Justin Bour and get a new one. Sheesh.
Contreras seems pretty adamant he'll play anywhere Madden wants him to so as long as he stays hot and with all the injuries it'll be pretty nice to have yet another bat Madden can move around.
Rizzo in, Zobrist out, Willson in LF, Montero back and Almora batting 9th ... let's score some runs
Time for Mr. Oh to get some save chances.
Rosenthal does it again! Comes in with a 3-1 lead in the 9th -- double, BB, HR...ballgame.
Very nice win last nice -- could have caved in after the bottom of the first. It would be OK if guys stopped getting hurt, and if SF would lose a few.
Awesome. It wasn't long ago that he was kind of the best prospect coming through the system.
Javy's grunge dive into the stands for the popup was awesome - the hitting into the double play not so much
Third time I've tried to post this (forgive me if it winds up appearing three times)
Junior Lake, batting 9th and playing RF for the Blue Jays...
*That was a fun HALF inning.