July 2007

Rumor mongers vs the real deals. Eric Gagne, Bronson Arroyo, Octavio Dotel, Bobby Kielty, Ryan Church or Reggie Sanders? 4 way deal for A-Rod? Have at it. ...and Carlos, MVN's own "The Transaction Guy" is monitoring every possible wire report for information on that last minute deal coming at cha. (OK, so it's a shameless plug)

The Cubs—now just a half-game behind the flailing Brewers—open a seven-game homestand Monday night with a four-game series against the Phillies, followed by a three-game set with the Mets. The Brewers will begin a six-game homestand against the same two clubs in reverse order. However, since they don’t open against the Metropolitans until Tuesday night, the Brewers will have no direct control over whether or not they go to bed Monday night in sole possession of first place in the NL Central. One of baseball’s enduring clichés is the one that says a victory at the beginning of the season is worth just as much as one in the final days of a pennant race. Is it the same with defeats?

Game Chat Sean Marshall vs. Aaron Harang Lineups:

Soriano LF	Freel CF
Theriot SS	Hopper RF
Lee 1B	Conine 1B
Floyd RF	Phillips 2B
DeRosa 3B	Dunn LF
Fontenot 2B	Keppinger SS
Jones CF	Encarnacion 3B
Kendall C	Ross C
Marshall P	Harang P

Paul Sullivan is reporting in the Chicago Tribune that Matt Murton and Rocky Cherry are being recalled. It seems likely that they will be replacing Jake Fox and Billy Petrick, although it is also possible that Mark DeRosa could be placed on the DL. Murton is hitting 340/406/617 (1.023 OPS) with five HR and 20 RBI plus nine doubles and a 10/12 BB/K ratio in 106 PA this month at Iowa, including an eleven game hitting streak and 16 out of 17. Over his last seven appearances, Cherry has thrown 9.0 IP, allowing two runs (both earned) and six hits, walking one while striking out 10. Also, Kerry Wood and Henry Blanco continued their rehab assignments at Peoria last night. box score Woody went one inning (12 pitches), allowing one hit and no runs with two strikeouts, while Hank White went 1-2 with a walk. Cubs GM Jim Hendry will be attending tonight's game at Peoria, presumably to get a first-hand look at the two rehabbing players. It is expected that Wood will be continuing his rehab next week at Iowa, but Blanco could be very close to returning to the big club.

- Koyie Hill and Jason Kendall are going to split duties for awhile, supposedly to let Kendall get some extra work in with hitting coach Gerald Perry and try to get his hitting stroke right. - I heard on XM radio this morning that Ryan Theriot has something like a 338 inning errorless streak at shortstop going. His last error at shortstop was in the second inning of an April 27th game against the St. Louis Cardinals. The Zone Rating that The Hardball Times keeps track of has him at .877 at the shortstop position which would be good for third in the league if he qualified behind Jose Reyes and Omar Vizquel. - Two items from the print version of Sports Ilustrated... The stats on this first item are a little outdated as this was published right after the All-Star Break but Baseball Prospectus's author Nate Silver uses a formula known as Secret Sauce to predict the World Series participants. The ingredients so to speak: Equivalent K/9 (EqK9), Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA) and it's strength of closer using Win Expectations Above Replacement (WXRL). The theory being those three items correlate strongly to postseason success, striking guys out, defense and a shutdown closer. Supposedly the formula correctly predicted the 2005 World Series matchup and a few others along the way. This being a Cubs blog, what do you expect? 1. Boston Red Sox 7.2 EQk9, 10 FRAA, 3.43 WXRL for Papelbon 2. Chicago Cubs 7.5 EQk9, 25 FRAA, 1.93 WXRL for Dempster 3. Anaheim Angels 6.8 EQk9, 17 FRAA, 2.64 WXRL for K-rod 4. The Metropolitans 6.4 EQk9, 28 FRAA, 3.19 WXRL for Wagner 5. Los Angeles Dodgers 7.4 EQk9, -11 FRAA, 3.74 WXRL for Saito And before we jump down Dempster's throat, I believe he's the only one of those closers to land himself on the disabled list. Item number two from SI was in this week's issue and there was a piece on the rejuvenated Cubs and touched on many of the topics that I covered in the recent "Nomar Corollary" about what jump started the turnaround. First, Hendry actually has a name for June 2nd, the day the Cubs reached their low-water mark of the year and Lou got ejected, "The Last-Straw Day". Not much for originality I guess. Also, there seems to be a slogan being bandied about Wrigley for the 2007 year, "It's Gonna Happen". Someone's even making bracelets. The most telling piece of the article though was this from Lou on getting thrown out the day after the Zambrano/Barrett brawl and Dempster's follow-up:

"I'm not going to say it was intentional, but truthfully I had to go out and argue that day. I knew that before the ball game. There was just too much scrutiny on our team. And when there's scrutiny on the team, basically a manager has to take a load of it. But that's not why we've turned around."

And Dempster's reply:

"I think Lou did a tremendous job of taking the heat off the players after everything that went on in the dugout and clubhouse. If he didn't get thrown out, we'd probably still be answering questions about Carlos and Michael." "The whole focus was on Lou for four days. Longer. Two weeks. It gave us a chance to breathe, to just play, get on a roll, and all of a sudden get our confidence. Now it feels like the fight never happened."

Strategic ejections, who knew? Cubs go for the sweep tonight, Marquis vs. Looper or better yet Rothschild vs Duncan.

The Cubs ended their mild two game swoon against the soon to be former World Champions with yet another one-run victory, giving them a 14-16 record in that bit of baseball whimsy. The game was harmless enough, Zambrano picked up his NL leading thirteenth win, lowered his ERA to 3.65 and took 117 pitches to not even make it through seven innings. I think we've seen that movie before. It did mark Derrek Lee's triumphant return to the lineup and he was kind enough to plate a particularly useful insurance run in the 9th. An insurance run that was very much needed with the return of the Ryan Dempster Experience back in the closer role. Handed a two-run lead, Dempster quickly hung a meatball to Yadier Molina to leadoff the inning, immediately putting the tying run up to the plate. A couple outs later, he gets Ryan Ludwick into an 0-2 hole before meatball number two is lined into left field, scoring a run after a Soriano bobble and bringing up Mr. All-World Albert Pujols. And any strategy that involves having to pitch with Albert Pujols representing the winning run isn't a good one. Then of course the Cubs had been dancing with this devil a few times already.

Game Chat Carlos Zambrano vs. Kip Wells Lineups:

Soriano LF	Kennedy 2B
Theriot SS	Schumaker RF
Lee 1B	Pujols 1B
Ramirez 3B	Duncan LF
Floyd RF	Edmonds CF
DeRosa 2B	Rolen 3B
Jones CF	Miles SS
Kendall C	Molina C
Zambrano P	Wells P

Who was the first member of the Chicago Cubs to win the Most Valuable Player award as voted on by members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America?

You can  use the previous post to rant on whatever is on your mind today, try to save this one for Cubs trivia. As always, web searches are discouraged.

Game Chat Yusmeiro Petit vs. Sean Marshall Lineups:

Young CF	Soriano LF
Hudson 2B	Theriot SS
Byrnes RF	Fontenot 2B
Jacskson 1B	Ramirez 3B
Reynolds 3B	Floyd RF
Hairston LF	DeRosa 1B
Drew SS	Jones CF
Snyder C	Kendall C
Petit P	Marshall P

Game Chat Brandon Webb vs. Jason Marquis UPDATE: I'm sure it's been mentioned in the comments but Daryle Ward was sent to the 15-day disabled list with a strained right calf and a rotoworld blurb suggests he could be out until September. Scott Moore was called up in the meantime. Also Ryan Dempster was activated today and Sean Gallagher was optioned to Iowa. Lou apparently said he'd like to avoid using Dempster today since he's pitched the last two days on rehab assignments which makes you wonder why they just didn't wait until tomorrow to activate him. Did the bullpen guys miss his jokes so much they needed him back a day early?

The Chicago Tribune is reporting that the Cubs have traded INF Cesar Izturis to the Pirates for a PTBNL. Also, OF-1B-C Jake Fox has been acquired from AA Tennessee. Pirates 3B Jose Bautista is on the Pirates DL with a hand injury, so I would think Izturis will possibly play 2B for the Bucs, perhaps with Freddy Sanchez moving to 3B. Izturis is still owed about $2M for the balance of 2007, with a $5.85M salary (or $300K buy-out) for 2008. With Mike Fontenot being strictly a 2B and with Piniella apparently unwilling to play Mark DeRosa at SS, trading Izturis should result in the return of PCL June Player of the Month Ronny Cedeno to Chicago. Ryan Theriot is doing a fine job as the everyday SS, so how much PT Cedeno will get will be the big question. I figured Fox as one of the players the Cubs were going to add to the 40-man roster after the season, so this is just an early start toward that end. Of course it also means one of his options will get burned 20 days after he’s returned to the minors. Fox has as much power as any player in the Cubs organization. He is the proverbial “first-ball/fastball” hitter who never met a fastball he didn’t like. (Waveland Avenue or Bust!). He’s not quite as fond of breaking stuff and off-speed pitches, though, unless he knows what’s coming. He can play 1B-LF-RF (his best position is probably LF, although he is a defensive liability no matter where plays) and also can catch in a pinch, although his days as a front-line catcher are very likely over. Fox was Rich Hill’s catcher at the University of Michigan, so if R. Hill still misses Barrett and Murton, Fox’s arrival should help cheer him up.

Game Chat Matt Cain vs. Carlos Zambrano Lineups:

Roberts CF	Soriano LF
Vizquel SS	Theriot SS
Winn RF	Ward 1B
Klesko 1B	Floyd RF
Durham 2B	DeRosa 3B
Lewis LF	Fontenot 2B
Feliz 3B	Jones CF
Rodriguez C	Hill C
Cain P	Zambrano P

Derrek Lee has dropped the appeal of his suspension and will begin serving it today. Why you might ask? He fouled a pitch off his shin that might make him sit for 2-3 days, so best to sit now (Thanks to reader cubswinthepennant for the tip). Why is Aramis sitting with Derrek Lee out? That I can't answer.

For those of you not tired of reading about...

For your amusement, everything you need to know about the newest Cubbie, Jason Kendall.... - Son of former major leaguer Fred Kendall - Swings one of the lightest bats in the majors, 30 oz. sometimes 29.7 oz. - 3 Time All-Star, 3rd in Rookie of the Year voting in 1996 - Career 279/378/402 hitter at Wrigley Field - Inside Edge scouting report grades: Overall Effectiveness: D- Location Performance: C Fastball Performance: B- Offspead Performance: C- Plate Discpline: A Clutch Tendency: D+ 2 Strike Tendency: B+ Overall Grade: C- - TSN Scouting Report:

Assets Very much a hitter's hitter, he swings for average, has occasional power, and produces runs. Kendall is the very rare catcher who can run. He's incredibly durable, has great hustle, and his mental toughness is unmatched. Flaws He's rather average behind the plate, though he does work on his defense. At the plate, he's lost most of his power due to injury. Career potential A rare leadoff-hitting catcher.

- Seems to have a reputation for handling a pitching staff quite well. - Athletic's fans feel the same about Kendall as most Cubs fans feel about Cesar Izturis and Jacque Jones. That can't be good. - Charged the mound after John Lackey missed him with a curveball last year because he didn't like what Lackey said to him. Hot-headed catcher? This sounds familiar. - By BP's Rate2 defensive stat, he's literally an average catcher with a career mark of 100. (similar to OPS+ or ERA+ where 100 is average, go below and you're considered below average and so on). The last three years in Oakland he's come in at 97, 103, 96. - He's caught over 140 games at catcher in 8 different seasons. Durable to say the least. - Played two games in left field for the A's this year. - Career .308/.384/.410 second half hitter; .306/.377/.365 the last three years in the second half (2004-2006).

The Cubs have traded for Oakland A's catcher Jason Kendall for minor leaguer Jerry Blevins and recently DFA'd catcher Rob Bowen. No word yet on how much of Kendall's contract the Cubs will be picking up but Len mentioned they'll be getting cash considerations from the A's. He was making $13 million this year in the last year of his deal of which Pittsburgh is paying $5.5 million. The big question though is if this is an upgrade? Kendall's hitting a horrific 226/261/281 this year, a far cry from his career line of 298/375/398 and he's been on the decline for a good three years now. About the only thing he does do well with the bat anymore is work the count, averaging 3.79 pitches per plate appearance on the season and 3.89 for his career. Definitely known as a leader in the clubhouse and a "take charge" kind of guy, the kind of terms you use for just about every veteran catcher, he's generally near the bottom in caught stealing percentage every year although he's near the middle to upper ranks of AL catchers in wild pitches and passed balls allowed per game the last few years (as tracked by Hardball Times) . Essentially we've traded Jerry Blevins and Michael Barrett for Jason Kendall and Kyler Burke. Is that terrible? I say no. At worst, we're treading water at the position compared to the triumvirate of suck that Bowen/Hill/Soto brought. At best, Kendall picks it up in the second half and we get a nice little bonus the rest of the season. Of course, we could have just kept Barrett but it appears those waters were poisoned long ago. And there's still two weeks until the trade deadline for Hendry to pull off another move.

Dr. Joseph Hecht gets us up to speed on the Cubs injury front... ------------- Mid July, a time to assess the walking wounded, and not all of them are even walking. Rotoworld.com has a nice link with all MLB players on the disabled list in a team-by-team format. Doing some simple math, here are the league leaders: Healthiest/Fewest players on the DL: Padres (1) Termel Sledge OF Diamondbacks (2): Randy Johnson SP, Jeff DaVanon OF Indians (2): David Delucci OF, Aaron Fultz RP 6 teams have 3 players on the DL including the Brewers (Bill Hall, Elmer Dessens, Corie Koskie), Red Sox (includes Matt Clement), Pirates, Rockies, Astros and Giants.

Game Chat Wandy Rodriguez vs. Jason Marquis Lineups:

Burke 2B	Theriot SS
Pence CF	Fontenot 2B
Berkman 1B	Lee 1B
Lee LF	Ramirez 3B
Loretta SS	Soriano LF
Lamb 3B	DeRosa RF
Scott RF	Soto C
Ausmus C	Pagan CF
Rodriguez P	Marquis P

Wandy with a 1.81 ERA at home, 6.60 on the road.