Baseball Prospectus

The Cubs Over/Under on Wins is Set at 71

The pre-season ritual of BP releasing their preliminary PECOTA numbers is upon us and as expected the Cubs are in the bottom 5 of the league. They've got them tabbed at 71 wins at the moment, 3rd worse in the league with only the Astros and Marlins being worse.

Running a Yellow Light

Will Carroll, BP's staff writer focusing on team health had this very interesting recent quote, from his "Cubs Team Health Report":

Age is a poor predictor of injuries. Younger players get hurt more, but they heal more quickly. Older players get hurt less, a variant of the survivor effect, but heal more slowly.

The media that follows baseball does it's best to understand and decipher sports injuries. It's a tough job for them and much gets lost in translation of medical terminology. Injured athletes often don't understand what they are being told about an injury or they are just afraid to fess up that their ache might be a significant problem until it goes on for weeks or longer. Trainers and medical staff are often reluctant to discuss information on the grounds of patient-physician confidentiality and some teams are just less open to giving what information they have to the media. The information is important to us fans, since key players dealing with even minor injuries and not performing to their best ability can drastically affect how a team plays. In 2009, Alphonso Soriano apparently had a knee injury that he tried to work through until it was so obvious that he couldn't run, leading to his arthroscopic knee surgery in September. An injury that flies under the radar screen of the medical staff, as in Soriano's case was costly and not in a way you can put the usual "days lost" analysis to.

Baseball Prospectus, Condensed For Your At-Work Reading

What the latest Baseball Prospectus annual has to say about the Cubs, minus all those pesky numbers and the obscure historical and literary allusions:

Ronny Cedeno
"...Cedeno's is a tried and true skill set–the same one that's earning Orlando Cabrera millions of dollars every season..."

Ryan Dempster
"...has experienced a steady decline in his groundball rates over the past three seasons...coupled with command that was never very good to begin with..."

Mark DeRosa
"If the Cubs bring in a Brian Roberts-type...the gains will be less than they might appear at first glance."

Kosuke Fukudome
"An inspired acquisition...a J.D. Drew/Bobby Abreu type of player..."

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  • This is awesome.

    https://twitter.com/JeffNuich/status/769227069788131329

    (CSN Chicago will air Vin Scully's call of the Sunday Cubs vs. Dodgers game)

     

    Rob G. 4 min 48 sec ago view
  • oh he's great, there's like 10 great pitchers in the NL right now that can flat out dominate though. Picking #2 (behind Kershaw) doesn't matter much to me right now. Much like whom the Cubs will play in the playoffs won't matter much, they're gonna be good teams.

    Rob G. 5 min 55 sec ago view
  • The Cubs great pitching has a lot more to do with their great defense this year and plenty of good luck  (#1 in ERA, #4 in FIP behind Nats, Mets and Dodgers with a rather ridiculous .258 BABIP against Cubs' pitchers).

    Cubs pitchers do strike out more hitters than Giants pitchers and do walk more hitters than Giants pitchers so that's a few more balls in play. Cubs' pitchers actually have a higher groundball rate though. Crawford is just really good and baseball happens.

    Rob G. 8 min 22 sec ago view
  • i do what i want.

    i run with 12 gangs and we only commit hate crimes.

    i do what i want.

    crunch 1 hour 12 min ago view
  • I was asking how well Scherzer holds on runners.

    #baseballtalk

    BTW, your used underwear remark sounds rather specific. Please don't project. Thanks.

    Tito 1 hour 41 min ago view
  • nothing gets you going like someone talking about lester, eh?

    i hope you're on his payroll or he sends you used underwear or whatever you're into.

    btw, he holds runners like shit. he does things with runners i've never seen another pitcher do in my life...even going back before i was born as far as i can tell. would you like to discuss it? that sounds like it could be educational and fun. hit me up, bruh.

    crunch 1 hour 43 min ago view
  • last year they won 97...and came in 3rd in the division. crazy game on a year-to-year basis.

    this year it's likely no one else in the division will win 90, though it's technically possible at this point.

    no matter what, this is a special team, though...very well rounded...and should be mostly intact next year with a bonus schwarber. chapman may not be around, but whatever...rondon and crew are capable even if not on chapman's level.

    crunch 1 hour 45 min ago view
  • How well does he hold on runners?

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 3 hours 40 min ago view
  • It's August 26. Cubs with 14 game lead. And not for #1 draft pick.

    Words I never thought I would type together.

    Jackstraw 3 hours 55 min ago view
  • One more victory to ensure a winning season!

    billybucks 6 hours 11 min ago view
  • If I were a betting man

    Give me the Dodgers tonite, not just because of
    Monty on mound.

    Two nights in LA for the kids? Woooo

    /Prove me wrong

    jacos 6 hours 12 min ago view
  • When Scherzer is on his game, he might the the most dominant and intimidating pitcher. A couple of games he has pitched against the Cubs when he had his stuff, and his mound presence was just powerful.

    billybucks 6 hours 13 min ago view
  • So are lack of chances due to the great pitching?

    jacos 6 hours 15 min ago view
  • TLS watch: 0-4 with Iowa last night. Saving his pinch hits for September.

    Cubster 7 hours 5 min ago view
  • Objectively true. Scherzer's FIP is almost a half point higher than his ERA, mostly I deduce because his BABIP is .249 so something ridiculous like that. It's not like the guy can't be scored on, but when I watch him, I sometimes feel that he's the most in control of the game moving around him.

    John Beasley 7 hours 49 min ago view
  • Certainly might be the hottest pitcher right now, but he's behind a few pitchers by most objective full season standards.

    Rob G. 11 hours 4 min ago view