Baseball Prospectus

The Cubs Over/Under on Wins is Set at 71

The pre-season ritual of BP releasing their preliminary PECOTA numbers is upon us and as expected the Cubs are in the bottom 5 of the league. They've got them tabbed at 71 wins at the moment, 3rd worse in the league with only the Astros and Marlins being worse.

Running a Yellow Light

Will Carroll, BP's staff writer focusing on team health had this very interesting recent quote, from his "Cubs Team Health Report":

Age is a poor predictor of injuries. Younger players get hurt more, but they heal more quickly. Older players get hurt less, a variant of the survivor effect, but heal more slowly.

The media that follows baseball does it's best to understand and decipher sports injuries. It's a tough job for them and much gets lost in translation of medical terminology. Injured athletes often don't understand what they are being told about an injury or they are just afraid to fess up that their ache might be a significant problem until it goes on for weeks or longer. Trainers and medical staff are often reluctant to discuss information on the grounds of patient-physician confidentiality and some teams are just less open to giving what information they have to the media. The information is important to us fans, since key players dealing with even minor injuries and not performing to their best ability can drastically affect how a team plays. In 2009, Alphonso Soriano apparently had a knee injury that he tried to work through until it was so obvious that he couldn't run, leading to his arthroscopic knee surgery in September. An injury that flies under the radar screen of the medical staff, as in Soriano's case was costly and not in a way you can put the usual "days lost" analysis to.

Baseball Prospectus, Condensed For Your At-Work Reading

What the latest Baseball Prospectus annual has to say about the Cubs, minus all those pesky numbers and the obscure historical and literary allusions:

Ronny Cedeno
"...Cedeno's is a tried and true skill set–the same one that's earning Orlando Cabrera millions of dollars every season..."

Ryan Dempster
"...has experienced a steady decline in his groundball rates over the past three seasons...coupled with command that was never very good to begin with..."

Mark DeRosa
"If the Cubs bring in a Brian Roberts-type...the gains will be less than they might appear at first glance."

Kosuke Fukudome
"An inspired acquisition...a J.D. Drew/Bobby Abreu type of player..."

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  • Phil, have you heard anything about the condition of Oscar De La Cruz's elbow? Has there been talk of a time table? Is he throwing?

    K Dub 3 hours 2 min ago view
  • i was distracted for most of the game and also missed the first few innings.

    but yeah, any time he makes a good fielding+throwing play on D it's worthy of praise and a trip to pizza hut for a personal pan pizza and $1 worth of songs on the juke box.

    seriously, i'll take it.

    crunch 5 hours 6 min ago view
  • BTW, CRUNCH, Lester made a nice bh pick-up and toss to Bryant. Did you catch it?

    He's been workin' on the D!

    The E-Man 7 hours 3 min ago view
  • j.urias didn't have a good debut...

    2.2ip 5h 4bb 3k...3 r/er...1 wp

    81 pitches. yow.

    crunch 9 hours 47 min ago view
  • Ach - I really only saw it quickly and thought that's where it it. No matter - he crushed it and the video board people did not have to repair the panels from what I saw!

    The E-Man 9 hours 59 min ago view
  • Totally agree with that re Soler, whereas Bryant seems to get the close call (so far) this year.

    Good to see Baez get a couple knocks today - been awhile

    Eric S 10 hours 5 min ago view
  • that works too...there wasnt a good CSN replay...was going off whatever len or jd (dont remember) said.

    crunch 10 hours 11 min ago view
  • I was there. From what I saw it was upper third of the scoreboard

    The E-Man 10 hours 14 min ago view
  • No I have been thinking actually that he seems to lead the Cubs with balls called strikes all year. He really shouldn't be expanding his zone to swing at many of those either because it wouldn't lead to anything good. He's seeing the ball well though so hopefully it'll even out.

    johann 11 hours 11 min ago view
  • So why don't the umps like Soler, or am I just imagining it?

    Rob Richardson 11 hours 23 min ago view
  • Yeah, but he kills lefties.

    billybucks 13 hours 27 min ago view
  • wow...instant hardcore rain.

    rain delay.

    crunch 13 hours 35 min ago view
  • it was massive...hit off the bottom of the LF scoreboard.

    crunch 14 hours 6 min ago view
  • Projected at 461 ft, with a 108 mph exit velocity - longest Cub HR this year by 20 ft (I think Arrieta had the longest?)

    Eric S 14 hours 15 min ago view
  • this team is full of horrible walkup music...rizzo uses 'marky mark and the funky bunch' more than he should...which is any at all.

    d.ross uses alphaville 'forever young' because lulz.

    lastella was using (still might be) 'oh what a night' by the four seasons.

    turrible turrible stuff.

    crunch 14 hours 16 min ago view
  • ROSS #100!

    cubs lead 1-5, bottom 4.

    crunch 14 hours 33 min ago view