Baseball Prospectus

The Cubs Over/Under on Wins is Set at 71

The pre-season ritual of BP releasing their preliminary PECOTA numbers is upon us and as expected the Cubs are in the bottom 5 of the league. They've got them tabbed at 71 wins at the moment, 3rd worse in the league with only the Astros and Marlins being worse.

Running a Yellow Light

Will Carroll, BP's staff writer focusing on team health had this very interesting recent quote, from his "Cubs Team Health Report":

Age is a poor predictor of injuries. Younger players get hurt more, but they heal more quickly. Older players get hurt less, a variant of the survivor effect, but heal more slowly.

The media that follows baseball does it's best to understand and decipher sports injuries. It's a tough job for them and much gets lost in translation of medical terminology. Injured athletes often don't understand what they are being told about an injury or they are just afraid to fess up that their ache might be a significant problem until it goes on for weeks or longer. Trainers and medical staff are often reluctant to discuss information on the grounds of patient-physician confidentiality and some teams are just less open to giving what information they have to the media. The information is important to us fans, since key players dealing with even minor injuries and not performing to their best ability can drastically affect how a team plays. In 2009, Alphonso Soriano apparently had a knee injury that he tried to work through until it was so obvious that he couldn't run, leading to his arthroscopic knee surgery in September. An injury that flies under the radar screen of the medical staff, as in Soriano's case was costly and not in a way you can put the usual "days lost" analysis to.

Baseball Prospectus, Condensed For Your At-Work Reading

What the latest Baseball Prospectus annual has to say about the Cubs, minus all those pesky numbers and the obscure historical and literary allusions:

Ronny Cedeno
"...Cedeno's is a tried and true skill set–the same one that's earning Orlando Cabrera millions of dollars every season..."

Ryan Dempster
"...has experienced a steady decline in his groundball rates over the past three seasons...coupled with command that was never very good to begin with..."

Mark DeRosa
"If the Cubs bring in a Brian Roberts-type...the gains will be less than they might appear at first glance."

Kosuke Fukudome
"An inspired acquisition...a J.D. Drew/Bobby Abreu type of player..."

Recent comments

The first 600 characters of the last 16 comments, click "View" to see rest of comment.
  • Yeah, she's a good egg. The whole superdelegate thing is shady as fuck though.

  • the perks of being a big fundraiser model representative citizen.

    honestly, though...the dnc could do worse and she's involved in all kinds of dem party stuff.

  • I didn't realize Laura Ricketts is a superdelegate.

  • pretty much...also agree that it wouldn't surprise me to see him land with the cubs, too.

    the trade to free up room for him would be interesting.

    it would help if he didn't play such a mixed-bag CF. he's anything but sure out there with his wacky routes.

    the O's are favored because of links for weeks and they're about to land y.gallardo (giving up that draft pick).

  • holy crap...j.mejia got busted AGAIN for PEDs.

    3rd time...lifetime ban.

    at one point he was the "closer of the future" (and the actual closer) for the mets. 26 years old. unreal.

  • I agree with what you said, but isn't it so weird that the White Sox are not linked to Fowler? They seem like an ideal fit.

  • oddly...or not...fowler's been strongly linked to the O's lately.

  • Olmos takes another 40 man roster Roulette bullet. The new lefty will be gone when Fowler comes back.

  • seen him in the minors...rather boring lefty. really slow secondary stuff (very slow slider) and a fastball that barely hits 90 on a good day.

  • The Cubs have claimed C.J. Riefenhauser LHP on waivers from the Orioles. Edgar Olmos was again DFA.

  • They should have someone standing behind him to take the ball out of his glove when he's looking for a sign from the catcher, and throw to first. I vote for Baez. That way he can cover the rest of the infield, too.

  • but then d.ross wouldn't have someone to pitch around him or IBB him to put him on base...it's almost moot...almost...not really...but almost...kinda...

    just checked...7 IBB last year...hard to tell how many times he was pitched around, but even assuming it's 0 that brings his ob% to below .230 with a sub-.500 OPS.

  • the intro to the all-star game would take an hour longer just to announce the team...awesome.

  • Think how much more valuable Lester contract looks if he doesn't ever have to do that mockery of hitting thing he does!

  • TV schedule is out:
    http://muskat.mlblogs.com/2016/02/12/cubs-announce...

    It's irritating that it's so difficult to watch Cub games.

  • The NL should just go ahead and out-DH the AL.