Baseball Prospectus

The Cubs Over/Under on Wins is Set at 71

The pre-season ritual of BP releasing their preliminary PECOTA numbers is upon us and as expected the Cubs are in the bottom 5 of the league. They've got them tabbed at 71 wins at the moment, 3rd worse in the league with only the Astros and Marlins being worse.

Running a Yellow Light

Will Carroll, BP's staff writer focusing on team health had this very interesting recent quote, from his "Cubs Team Health Report":

Age is a poor predictor of injuries. Younger players get hurt more, but they heal more quickly. Older players get hurt less, a variant of the survivor effect, but heal more slowly.

The media that follows baseball does it's best to understand and decipher sports injuries. It's a tough job for them and much gets lost in translation of medical terminology. Injured athletes often don't understand what they are being told about an injury or they are just afraid to fess up that their ache might be a significant problem until it goes on for weeks or longer. Trainers and medical staff are often reluctant to discuss information on the grounds of patient-physician confidentiality and some teams are just less open to giving what information they have to the media. The information is important to us fans, since key players dealing with even minor injuries and not performing to their best ability can drastically affect how a team plays. In 2009, Alphonso Soriano apparently had a knee injury that he tried to work through until it was so obvious that he couldn't run, leading to his arthroscopic knee surgery in September. An injury that flies under the radar screen of the medical staff, as in Soriano's case was costly and not in a way you can put the usual "days lost" analysis to.

Baseball Prospectus, Condensed For Your At-Work Reading

What the latest Baseball Prospectus annual has to say about the Cubs, minus all those pesky numbers and the obscure historical and literary allusions:

Ronny Cedeno
"...Cedeno's is a tried and true skill set–the same one that's earning Orlando Cabrera millions of dollars every season..."

Ryan Dempster
"...has experienced a steady decline in his groundball rates over the past three seasons...coupled with command that was never very good to begin with..."

Mark DeRosa
"If the Cubs bring in a Brian Roberts-type...the gains will be less than they might appear at first glance."

Kosuke Fukudome
"An inspired acquisition...a J.D. Drew/Bobby Abreu type of player..."

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  • Not certain why the site has been slowed. Worked much of Wednesday on it and will continue today. Sorry for the inconvenience. I will probably take it offline for a while, but it will be up before the game against the Mets.

    WebAdmin 5 hours 28 min ago view
  • Mine has been really slow to load -- on different computers from different locations.

    JoePepitone 7 hours 49 min ago view
  • Anybody else have issues accessing the site this afternoon/evening?

    Eric S 8 hours 50 min ago view
  • Boras is 63, maybe he'll be retired or dead by the time Bryant, Russell, Almora, Albertos all hit free agency. Doubt he will be before Jake hits there though.

    cubbies.4ever 12 hours 11 min ago view
  • Interesting choices when guys get healthy.

    LaStella, Fowler & Soler replace Coghlan, Almora and Sczcur? I assume they don't want Almora to sit.

    Despite MIggy's demise, I assume they keep him around to mentor Contreras?

    billybucks 13 hours 24 min ago view
  • I believe Willson now has more CS than MIggy. The kid has an arm. Also, Russell is amazingly good on those plays at 2nd.

    billybucks 14 hours 35 min ago view
  • oh yeah...thanks joe/billy.

    poor outing, still got the win, go cubs.

    crunch 15 hours 14 min ago view
  • Although it felt like it, Jake didn't lose to them -- he got the W. (Assuming you are referring to Monday's game)

    billybucks 16 hours 54 min ago view
  • Arrieta didn't lose to the Reds. He got the win -- he just didn't pitch like we expect him to.

    JoePepitone 16 hours 55 min ago view
  • almora's 1st HR!

    crunch 17 hours 3 min ago view
  • it's not like this CIN team is lost-cause horrible, but aside from defense and power this is a truly horrible team.

    kinda crazy arrieta lost to them and yesterday's game had to go 15 innings for the cubs win.

    crunch 17 hours 19 min ago view
  • It looked like Hamilton got screened by Duvall and that Duvall just barely deflected the ball off of his glove--redirecting it slightly without taking away much of its momentum.

    At least it didn't turn into a Schwarber/Fowler situation. Hamilton and Duvall are both pretty important youngish players for the Reds.

    Charlie 17 hours 27 min ago view
  • he walked off the field on his own. aside from a concussion watch and some attention to his leg/knee that buckled a bit under him, the biggest thing hurt was probably his pride after the ball knocked off his skull.

    crunch 17 hours 45 min ago view
  • After last night, an inside-the-park HR seems kind of run-of-the-mill somehow.

    Sounds bad for Hamilton. Hope he's okay--listening on the radio.

    Brick 18 hours 2 min ago view
  • SHOW ME THE MONEY: Jose Albertos has signed with Mega-Agent Scott Boras.

    Albertos has already received his signing bonus and won't see any additional significant money until he reaches the big leagues, so this is a long-term investment for the Boras Corporation.  

    Other Cubs represented by Boras include Jake Arrieta, Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, and Albert Almora Jr. 

    Arizona Phil 18 hours 9 min ago view
  • I am glad Joe is managing this team and not Old and Blue!

    Hagsag 20 hours 31 min ago view