For the second year in a row, Bill James has ranked the Cubs in the lower third in his top young talent inventory. Last year, the Cubs were 29th, this year they jumped all the way to 26th. He didn't even have the decency to rank Geovany Soto in the top 25 players under 30.
Bastard.
Here's the top 25:
1. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers first baseman, age 24
2. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins shortstop, age 24
3. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants pitcher, age 24
4. David Wright, New York Mets third baseman, age 25
5. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers left fielder, age 24
6. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox second baseman, age 24
7. Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder, age 23
8. Francisco Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels pitcher, age 26
9. Jose Reyes, New York Mets shortstop, age 25
10. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles right fielder, age 24
11. Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals pitcher, age 24
12. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals third baseman, age 23
13. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies pitcher, age 24
14. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies shortstop, age 23
15. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners pitcher, age 22
16. Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox pitcher, age 24
17. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays third baseman, age 22
18. John Danks, Chicago White Sox pitcher, age 23
19. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres first baseman, age 26
20. James Loney, Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman, age 24
21. Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks shortstop, age 25
22. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves catcher, age 24
23. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers first baseman, age 25
24. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians center fielder, age 25
25. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds first baseman, age 24
My understanding, like all things James, is that he uses some statistical formula that incorporates age along with minor league and major league numbers and it doesn't seem like there's any room for defense in there (he uses Runs Created). Soto is probably still being penalized for just having one good minor league season, while some of the others on that list had more distinguished minor league careers. McCann would finish ahead of him just on the strength of already having a couple of plus major league seasons under his belt.
As for the Cubs 26th ranking, well don't fret, James has a ready-made excuse for the Cubs.
As James has noted often, “Competitive teams don’t have as much room to let young players thrash around, and consequently most of the top teams don’t show as having a lot of young talent. They may have the young talent; it just isn’t in the lineup yet.”
I believe James gives the players letter grades but I think you need to get the Bill James 2009 Handbook for that. So I'll give you my own...
Geovany Soto - A
Carlos Marmol - A
Rich Harden - A-
Carlos Zambrano - B+
Jeff Samardzija - B+
Felix Pie - B
Rich Hill - B-
Sean Marshall - B-
Micah Hoffpauir - B-
Angel Guzman - B-
Chad Gaudin - C+
Ryan Theriot - C
Casey McGehee - C-
Kevin Hart - C-
Ronny Cedeno - D+
I used the tried and true tested, "off-the-top-of-my-head" algorithm made famous by anyone who has ever gotten in an argument at a sports bar.
Thanks to both Rob and AZ!
archer only lasts 4.2ip today...109 pitches.
CHARLIE: If a club exceeds it's Signing Bonus Pool by 5%, it loses a draft pick. So the Cubs can spend about $578K above its assigned SBP ($10,556M) and not lose a draft pick.
The #2 overall SBP valus is worth about $6.7M, so the Cubs could offer Bryant well over $7M and still not lose a draft pick if they were inclined to do so (presuming they did not go over their SBP in other rounds).
If the Cubs don't feel they are getting fair value offered back, they can always just hang onto Garza and Feldman and make them Qualifying Offers post-2013.
lovely, put up a post on potential trade candidates for Feldman and Garza and it hate the bulk of the text much like it does with some of the comments...sigh.
I don't know the numbers as they spent a quite a bit to land the 12th round pick Clifton (allegedly 3rd round money which is 500 to 750K) and anything over $100K counts against the cap.
But Boras represents Bryant and Appel and I doubt he'd let Bryant sign for more than Appel who got $6.35M and Bryant's slot # is $6.7M. So chances are Cubs are getting him under (rumors is around $5.6M). Gray signed for $4.8M which was $800K less than slot as well.
rosscup may not have impeccable control, and injuries have slowed him, but he's recently turned 25 and needs to get out of AA.
his numbers are nice, but it's hard to get excited about them when he's feasting on 21-24 year olds.
i'm a rosscup fan, and i'm ready for him to be challenged.
And Chris Rusin is probably the #1 LHSP in the PCL right now. He is #1 among all SP (LHP & RHP) in WHIP, and he is 5th among SP in ERA (behind LHPs Brad Mills and Will Smith and RHPs Johnny Hellweg and Sonny Gray). He has been a real workhorse, too, leading the PCL in IP. and he has allowed only 5 HR in 97 IP (pretty good for a SP in the PCL). And he's hitting 222 and hasn't struck out in 18 PA (he was a DH at the U. of Kentucky on days he wasn't pitching), so he would fit right into the Cubs starting rotation.
one problem is going to be a glut in available SP.
josh johnson and r.nolasco are strong candidates most likely to be available...along with a slew of others not so strong...then there's garza/feldman in the mix on the strong side.
teams like CIN, DET, and ATL are most likely not even going to be looking SP.
So, how much do we think they can spend on the 1st-rounder before they give up a draft pick then?
Rosscup and Burke--gotta figure at least one of them makes the 40. Lefties that through like that don't grow on trees. It'd be nice to see Burke developing a bit faster as a pitcher, though, and Rosscup being pushed a bit more.
LHP Zac Rosscup missed most of last season with biceps tendinitis, but once he got back into action he looked very good (his fastball was clocked at 94 MPH in his last appearance with the AZL Cubs before he was moved-up to Tennessee),
Rosscup, SS Arismendy Alcantara, OF Jae-Hoon Ha, and LHP (ex-OF) Kyler Burke are the Cubs minor leaguers most-likely to be added to the 40-man roster post-2013 (Rosscup, Alcantara, and Ha will be Rule 5 eligible, and Burke can be a minor league FA), although Rosscup, Burke, and Ha might have to show something in the AFL
If the other option is to get nothing for Feldman, then sure, talk with him about an extension. But if they can find a way to get a Maholm-esque return on him, I say pull the trigger.
I'm curious to see whether opposing GM's are still willing to part with any quality prospects for Garza after he missed nearly a year due to injuries. To me, you could make a stronger argument there that the Cubs might be better off extending than trading.
heh, I can't imagine a world where the Orioles would consider trading them both. I'm not sure they'd be willing to trade either of them unless they got a guy for more than a half a season.
rizzo sits tonight.
TEX has called up chirinininos today...
archer has had issues with control to the tune of barely being able to go 5 innings without throwing more than 100 pitches...AAA and especially majors where he's had a couple of 4ip outings. this season in the minors he's only gone over 5ip twice...both 6ip.