Cubs playoff chances

Mmmm...Secret Sauce

One of the many toys at Baseball Prospectus is something they call "Secret Sauce". BP has successfully cracked the code to playoff success and nailed the last 45 World Series winners. What? How have you never heard of this amazing prediction system? Because I made that last part up, but nevertheless a fun tool to look at as we await our playoff opponent.

I looked back through 2000 and BP did predict three World Series winners and six of the 16 participants in the World Series correct. You scoff, but what's your playoff prediction success rate?

The formula is simple enough and rather intuitive to what is commonly believed among baseball folks that power pitching, a good closer and good defense wins in the playoffs. In this case, BP uses FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average), EqK9 (Equivalent Strikeout Rates per 9 innings) and WXRL (Win above Replacement Pitcher for the team's closer) and comes up with a score.

Their predictions and the 2008 rankings after the jump.

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  • First team to 60 wins! Onward to 70, 80, 90 and 100!

    billybucks 4 hours 23 min ago view
  • I. Hate. The. Mets.

    billybucks 4 hours 51 min ago view
  • OK Marlins -- take 'em down. Fernandez, at home, tomorrow for the Fish.

    Gotta say, though -- as much as I can't stand them, the Cardinals have had some very impressive late-inning wins against premier closers.

    billybucks 4 hours 51 min ago view
  • Very impressive that he hit a 3-2 curve ball. Such a dynamic ballplayer. If he ever learns the strike zone....

    billybucks 4 hours 58 min ago view
  • If Jason Hammel doesn't get a potato chip sponsorship deal, somebody messed up. Attaboy, Jason!

    billybucks 5 hours 1 min ago view
  • I am looking forward to AChap facing the Cardinals.

    The E-Man 5 hours 9 min ago view
  • Sure is fun to watch them score finally. To think they were no-hit until the 7th...

    The E-Man 5 hours 20 min ago view
  • Got to admit it - it was comforting seeing Rondon come out for the eighth after just taking a two run lead ... And put the hammer down with a 7 pitch inning. Good stuff

    Eric S 5 hours 25 min ago view
  • GRAND SLAM RUSSELL

    blown the hell open...7 run lead

    crunch 5 hours 27 min ago view
  • 11 hits off Wainwright tonight. Everything going right for the Cards right now. Motherfucking motherfuckers.

    The E-Man 5 hours 36 min ago view
  • it was more no-doubt than bryant's HR. it wont make any end-of-season highlight reels, but that one was booked to leave on contact.

    crunch 5 hours 45 min ago view
  • Javy! Javy! Javy!

    How sweet was that - Cranked it!

    393 happy feet

    Eric S 5 hours 53 min ago view
  • baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaez!

    cubs take a 2 run lead in the 7th. sweet.

    crunch 5 hours 56 min ago view
  • ...and the Cards tie and take the lead in the 9th. off Familia.

    blockhead25 6 hours 39 sec ago view
  • Familia blows his first save of the season -- gives up 2 in 9th to the Cards.

    Not much going our way these days.

    billybucks 6 hours 46 sec ago view
  • bryant's back!

    no-doubt HR towering to CF...tie game.

    crunch 6 hours 18 min ago view