Cubs playoff chances
Mmmm...Secret Sauce
One of the many toys at Baseball Prospectus is something they call "Secret Sauce". BP has successfully cracked the code to playoff success and nailed the last 45 World Series winners. What? How have you never heard of this amazing prediction system? Because I made that last part up, but nevertheless a fun tool to look at as we await our playoff opponent.
I looked back through 2000 and BP did predict three World Series winners and six of the 16 participants in the World Series correct. You scoff, but what's your playoff prediction success rate?
The formula is simple enough and rather intuitive to what is commonly believed among baseball folks that power pitching, a good closer and good defense wins in the playoffs. In this case, BP uses FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average), EqK9 (Equivalent Strikeout Rates per 9 innings) and WXRL (Win above Replacement Pitcher for the team's closer) and comes up with a score.
Their predictions and the 2008 rankings after the jump.
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Recent comments
TarzanJoeWallis (view)
Sure, they made generally short term trades for established players to enhance what they already had or traded for players early enough in their careers that they were essentially Cardinals from the start. What they never did was to try to use the more established players as foundational cornerstones.
Essentially we’re saying the same thing. They have given up on player development to the point that even their prospects that make it to the bigs flop so that they have to do things like buy most of their rotation and hope for the best.
Dolorous Jon Lester (view)
I don’t buy that. They had been doing that for years.
They did it with Matt Holliday. They did it with John Lackey. They did it with Mark Mulder. They did it with Jason Heyward, who had a great year for them. I’m sure there’s more but those come to mind immediately.
I attribute it more to a breakdown in what they’re doing in terms of development than a culture thing.
TarzanJoeWallis (view)
They won those trades and sacrificed their culture. That’s exactly their problem.
Dolorous Jon Lester (view)
The other part that’s kind of crazy is they made two very high profile trades, one for Goldschmidt and one for Arenado, and they very clearly won those trades. They just haven’t been able to develop players the last handful of years the way they usually do.
I guess the moral there is it’s hard to stay on top of your game and be good at what you do in perpetuity.
TarzanJoeWallis (view)
Marmol was extended at the beginning of the year. Two years I believe.
crunch (view)
Jesse Rogers @JesseRogersESPN
Craig Counsell doesn’t have a timetable for Cody Bellinger who technically has two cracked ribs on his right side. CT scan showed it today.
Dolorous Jon Lester (view)
Thought it might have been David Peralta given the open 40 man spot and how PCA has played so far.
Dolorous Jon Lester (view)
I hope they keep Mozeliak a few more years. Marmol too!
crunch (view)
wow, counsell coming with the early lineup. rarity.
canario/tauchman/happ RF/CF/LF
crunch (view)
PCA called up.