Cubs playoff chances

Mmmm...Secret Sauce

One of the many toys at Baseball Prospectus is something they call "Secret Sauce". BP has successfully cracked the code to playoff success and nailed the last 45 World Series winners. What? How have you never heard of this amazing prediction system? Because I made that last part up, but nevertheless a fun tool to look at as we await our playoff opponent.

I looked back through 2000 and BP did predict three World Series winners and six of the 16 participants in the World Series correct. You scoff, but what's your playoff prediction success rate?

The formula is simple enough and rather intuitive to what is commonly believed among baseball folks that power pitching, a good closer and good defense wins in the playoffs. In this case, BP uses FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average), EqK9 (Equivalent Strikeout Rates per 9 innings) and WXRL (Win above Replacement Pitcher for the team's closer) and comes up with a score.

Their predictions and the 2008 rankings after the jump.

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  • draft signings are trickling in...rounds 6-9 are signed + a random slew of others.

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/draftdb/index.php

    filter by team.

    crunch 4 hours 15 min ago view
  • Former Major League All-Star Jim Hickman dies at 79

    http://www.tennessean.com/story/sports/2016/06/25/...

    QuietMan 5 hours 19 min ago view
  • Yep...sort of. Matheny says Rosenthal will no longer pitch the 9th, and they will mix/match Oh, Siegrist and Broxton.

    billybucks 5 hours 38 min ago view
  • Duane Underwood now 0-5 with a 5.44 ERA for Tenn. Urp. Warren not sharp at Iowa tonight. When will Cease and Hudson be ready?

    On a positive note, Jiminez with his 10th HR tonight. He has a .924 OPS -- the only player in the league with an OPS over .900. Leads the lead in 2B, SLG and OPS, tied for the league lead in HR and 3rd in Avg. Nice!

    billybucks 5 hours 43 min ago view
  • - The pressure of going for the regular-season wins record is now gone.
    - Joe will come up with more wacky dress-up ideas for the team to wear after they lose their next get-away game.
    - There is more clarity on Spencer Patton.
    - We play the Reds next. They aren't very good.
    - We'll have at least a 9 game lead after today.
    EDIT: - Contreras looks like the real deal.

    Other than that, not much -- nasty stretch. Two ugly losses in the last 4 games.
    Ugh -- give Lackey a 4-1 lead, you hope for better.

    billybucks 7 hours 44 min ago view
  • Joe: "We lost. They beat us. Now where's my '09 Guigal Bordeaux glass...?

    The E-Man 8 hours 41 min ago view
  • I forgot how rail thin skinny Carl Edwards Jr. Is - he threw some nasty stuff - hope that continues

    Eric S 8 hours 47 min ago view
  • HAHAHA! I love it here! Brilliant...

    The E-Man 8 hours 50 min ago view
  • "The pressure of going for the regular-season wins record is now gone."

    Brilliant. Maddon is a genius!

    Brick 8 hours 54 min ago view
  • "Drink copiously but responsibly."

    Done and done. Thanks for that.

    Brick 8 hours 55 min ago view
  • Oil Can Boyd now pitching for the Cubs

    Eric S 9 hours 4 min ago view
  • It's a long season. There will be stretches like this. It's Saturday night. Drink copiously but responsibly.

    Jackstraw 9 hours 11 min ago view
  • That valuable RBIGIDP.

    Brick 9 hours 12 min ago view
  • Someone talk me down here.

    Brick 9 hours 25 min ago view
  • I remember AZ PHIL talking about Bour's power during the Hendry era.

    The E-Man 9 hours 53 min ago view
  • Time to scrap the scouting report on Justin Bour and get a new one. Sheesh.

    billybucks 9 hours 55 min ago view