Cubs Projections
Your 2010 Cubs: What To Expect
Hello, everyone! I'm Lizzy: Native Virginian, devoted Cubs fan, and author of a blog called The Fair Base Ballist. I was supposed to make a guest post here when Rob G. was on vacation, but technical difficulties prevented my doing so. I spent a good chunk of time hammering out individual player projections for 2010, and Rob has been kind enough to let me go ahead and post them. I hope you'll enjoy, and please contribute your own ideas to mine (especially for the mystery bench player who is likely to be announced 5 minutes after I publish this. I have omitted the 4 candidates for brevity's sake.)
Without further fanfare, your 2010 Chicago Cubs previews. They are all 100% serious.
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Cubs' CAIRO Projections
The latest projections use the Diamon Mind simulator and run 100 seasons using CAIRO projections (which I never heard of until today, but apparently have been the most accurate of the projection systems of late).
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Cubs' PECOTA Projections
Here are the weighted means from BP's PECOTA projection system in a few categories for the Cubs. PECOTA does try to project playing time, so cumulative stats like VORP and WARP are based off of that.
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2010 CHONE Projections for Cubs
Fangraphs has added the CHONE projections on their player pages along with the Bill James projections. The Hardball Times comes out with theirs in their pre-season annual and of course Baseball Prospectus and PECOTA should be out shortly. But I promised updates when I put up the Bill James projections, so here are the wOBA CHONE projections (league average is generally around the .330 mark, give or take a few points).
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Bill James 2010 Projections for Cubs
Fangraphs is once again going to list the projections on their player pages from a variety of sources, Bill James, CHONE, Marcel....maybe more. Bill James projections are up first and here's how the Cubs ranked by wOBA and their 2009 wOBA (explanation of wOBA here). I'll try and expand when new projections are released. Age is their 2010 playing age. You can click on their names to get their full slash line predictions and more.
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Cubs Win Another Simulated NL Central Division
Baseball Prospectus had the Cubs running away with the NL Central a few weeks back. CHONE projections1 thinks it will be a tight race with the St. Louis Cardinals. They have the Cubs at 88 wins, just five ahead of the Cardinals, six ahead of the Reds and seven ahead of the Brewers.
Cubs Win All Important Simulated 2009 NL Central Crown
Baseball Prospectus updated their team depth chart with new PECOTA information and the Cubs are hands down the class of the simulated National League Central. The Cubs come out with 96 wins and an easy division crown with the Brewers being their closest competition at 83 wins. That's also the best record in the NL and second best in the league behind the 98 imaginary wins that Boston has under their belt.
Recent comments
crunch (view)
morel with 4 clean plays in 4 innings...showed off his 100000000mph arm a couple times.
cody bellinger not having a good 4th, though...5 run leads are handy when your CF is making your pitcher have a 5-out inning. 2nd blown chance was ruled a hit even though it went in/out of his glove...1st was lost in the lights, also ruled a hit.
crunch (view)
welcome back happ! double off the wall 1st PA back.
crunch (view)
oh yeah, totally, i was just chiming about why i fan like i fan.
i would like nothing more than hendricks to keep on hendricks'ing. guys with his stuff can throw for a long, long time as long as it works.
he velocity is actually up a minor amount this year. it's really "damn" when a guy like him not only has gas in the tank, but it's looking like it was years ago. he added a curve a few years ago and it helped a little bit, but he's throwing it less and less while the fb/change combo are less effective.
Alexander Dimm (view)
CRUNCH—There is no one person in this community I’m talking about. My remarks were not directed at you or anyone, but at a tone I’ve noticed lately.
You have a great, dry sense of humor and there is thought behind your comments. You and I don’t always agree but I always understand your position.
Lastly, and I’ll be quiet, I agree with you on Hendricks. We can dislike the recent performance but still love the guy. Lots of questions about his future.
crunch (view)
myself, i make a good amount of outrageously unrealistic comments that are sometimes "violent"...like my recent suggestion of "pulling the bandaid off" by having hendricks throw every inning of every game until he's on the IL.
i would hope any athlete that cares about what is written on the internet realizes how casual fans can be about treating their lives like scripted TV characters that don't have real lives. it's not an excuse to do it, but there's a lot of it out there.
but yeah, in real life i'm rooting for guys to have long and healthy careers even if i'm not happy with current performances...except for some guys...and i'm pretty sure i don't leave grey area for those comments...and almost all of them are not good humans whether they're playing baseball or not...
hendricks was getting a good amount of boos in his last game. i would bet a million that he will get a standing O every time he visits wrigley in his post-playing days, or a return with a new team should his career continue...or if he comes back and puts in an oldschool good performance.
Alexander Dimm (view)
What are the chances we can back off on gloating over other people’s misfortune? One of the things I appreciate about the TCR community is that the remarks are more productive and add to how I like to follow the game.
Lately, however, I’m reading comments that are just mean. If I were an MLB player, I would hate to get a back or finger injury and have someone write ‘hurrah! I hope we never see him again!’ Especially when it is someone we were praising not long ago. I’m not saying ‘don’t express how you feel’ but some comments lately seem downright mean spirited. Stuff I expect from other communities but don’t often see here. The TCR community has always spoken the truth but never with such a dark tone.
Just my two cents. I hope Hendricks comes back and is the professor we all know. He can pitch for the Cubs as long as he wants in my book.
crunch (view)
happ is back (and starting), mervis DH, tauchman gets RF.
morel 5th in the lineup. hoerner continues to lead off, even vs a righty.
George Altman (view)
I don't care to see Hendricks or Smyly on the 26-man Roster the rest of the season. Both, stupid signings and option pick up by Jed.
crunch (view)
i know the cubs are paying the guys, but for the sake of the win/loss column this is some great news.
woo! people getting injured! kick ass!
sportsball is cruel.
would have liked to keep cooper, but it looks like they're gonna go with wisdom if they have to pick a righty who's gonna K 1/3rd of his PA's.
Dolorous Jon Lester (view)
Edwards would be my guess, or maybe they’re hoping Sanders or R Thompson can finally figure it out