Hunter Ackerman, LHP Arismendy Alcantara, INF Gioskar Amaya, INF Jose Arias, RHP Frank Batista, RHP Xavier Batista, OF Dallas Beeler, RHP Justin Bour, 1B Sergio Burruel, C Esmailin Caridad, RHP Marcelo Carreno, RHP Lendy Castillo, RHP Javier Castro, RHP Zach Cates, RHP Hunter Cervenka, LHP Pin-Chieh Chen, OF Casey Coleman, RHP Gerardo Concepcion, LHP Willson Contreras, C Wes Darvill, INF Antonio Encarnacion, RHP Luis Flores, C Anthony Giansanti, OF Enyel Gonzalez, RHP Carlos Gutierrez, RHP Jae-Hoon Ha, OF Eric Jokisch, LHP Dong-Yub Kim, OF Austin Kirk, LHP Luis Liria, RHP Matt Loosen, RHP Jeff Lorick, LHP Eric Martinez, RHP A. J. Morris, RHP Chad Noble, C Loiger Padron, RHP Juan Carlos Paniagua, RHP (see NOTE) Amaury Paulino, RHP Felix Pena, RHP Starling Peralta, RHP Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP Kevin Rhoderick, RHP Greg Rohan, IF-OF Jose Rosario, RHP Zac Rosscup, LHP Victor Salazar, RHP Brian Schlitter, RHP Ryan Searle, RHP Elliot Soto, INF Nick Struck, RHP Luis Villalba, LHP Yao-Lin Wang, RHP Oliver Zapata, OF NOTE: Player not eligible for selection if added to MLB 40-man roster by 11/20. Also, Juan Carlos Paniagua signed his first contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks as "Juan Callado" on 5-8-2009 and pitched for the DSL Diamondbacks in the Dominican Summer League in 2009-10, but the contract was "pending" for almost two years and was never officially approved by MLB. The contract was eventually rejected by MLB due to "fraudulent paperwork" and Paniagua (Callado) was suspended for one year and then was declared a free-agent. He signed with the New York Yankees in March 2011 but then was suspended again and that contract was rejected, too, because his birth certificate could not be verified. Paniagua was cleared by MLB in 2012 and he signed with the Cubs on 7-9-2012. Therefore, Paniagua could be eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft for the first time in December 2013, since 2009 was his "first season" on the field and he was 18 on the June 5th immediately preceding the signing of his first contract, or he might not be eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft for the first time until December 2015, if 2012 is considered Paniagua's "first season" for Rule 5 eligibility purposes.
Hello, everyone! I'm Lizzy: Native Virginian, devoted Cubs fan, and author of a blog called The Fair Base Ballist. I was supposed to make a guest post here when Rob G. was on vacation, but technical difficulties prevented my doing so. I spent a good chunk of time hammering out individual player projections for 2010, and Rob has been kind enough to let me go ahead and post them. I hope you'll enjoy, and please contribute your own ideas to mine (especially for the mystery bench player who is likely to be announced 5 minutes after I publish this. I have omitted the 4 candidates for brevity's sake.)
Without further fanfare, your 2010 Chicago Cubs previews. They are all 100% serious.
The latest projections use the Diamon Mind simulator and run 100 seasons using CAIRO projections (which I never heard of until today, but apparently have been the mostaccurate of the projection systems of late).
They have the Cubs doing a bit better than PECOTA with 83-84 wins and a 17% chance of winning the division, although like PECOTA they'll run the projections again as the season approaches and playing time is a little more certain. As Neyer notes in one of the links above and others have, there's pretty much a 6-game margin of error no matter what projection stats you use, so we're talking 76-89 win range at the moment. That being said, the Cubs are pretty clearly looking up at the Cardinals at this point and apparently the Reds.
Fangraphs has added the CHONE projections on their player pages along with the Bill James projections. The Hardball Times comes out with theirs in their pre-season annual and of course Baseball Prospectus and PECOTA should be out shortly. But I promised updates when I put up the Bill James projections, so here are the wOBA CHONE projections (league average is generally around the .330 mark, give or take a few points).
Fangraphs is once again going to list the projections on their player pages from a variety of sources, Bill James, CHONE, Marcel....maybe more. Bill James projections are up first and here's how the Cubs ranked by wOBA and their 2009 wOBA (explanation of wOBA here). I'll try and expand when new projections are released. Age is their 2010 playing age. You can click on their names to get their full slash line predictions and more.
Furthermore, they've got the Cubs listed 10th in their power rankings, fourth in the NL behind the Phillies, Mets and Braves.
I think we can infer two things from this new information. First, the Cubs aren't quite the locks to win the NL Central that some of us have led ourselves to believe. Second, that Sean Smith who runs the CHONE projections is a Cub-hater2. I think that's irrefutable. I even think I found a picture of him.
1 - Is it pronounced Shawn? If so, I would have just called it the FIGGINS projections.
Baseball Prospectus updated their team depth chart with new PECOTA information and the Cubs are hands down the class of the simulated National League Central. The Cubs come out with 96 wins and an easy division crown with the Brewers being their closest competition at 83 wins. That's also the best record in the NL and second best in the league behind the 98 imaginary wins that Boston has under their belt.
Replacement Level Yankees blog ran some of their own predictions using The Hardball Times projections back in early January and came up with 91.5 wins for the Cubs. That half win is going to be tough.
It's probably a good time to point out that PECOTA had the Indians winning 92 games last year and Tigers 90, although it did predict the Rays for 90 wins to its credit. I can't seem to find the full 2008 NL Predictions, but it did land the top two spots in the NL Central last year and had 89 wins for the Cubs. I believe it nailed two division winners (Angels and Cubs) and four playoff teams (had Dodgers and Red Sox as the wild card) overall in 2008.
So congrats to the 2009 Cubs - NL Paper Champions!
The first 600 characters of the last 16 comments, click "View" to see rest of comment.
per mlbtr...StL starting lefty, Jaime Garcia to undergo shoulder labrum repair after seeing Dr. Andrews and is out for the rest of the year. Some quote about Andrews surprised to see how well Garcia was pitching given how large (40%) the labral tear is.
We can measure how far the Cubs system is working by injuries like this, just watch how well Garcia's replacement in the rotation does. In 2011-12 the Cubs would be bringing up Justin Germano, Jason Berken, Chris Volstad or Rodrigo Lopez. Webster had a pic of RodLo in its definition of hitting rock bottom.
Something to keep in mind about Michael Bowden, is that even if he clears waivers, he can refuse an Outright Assignment to the minors & elect free-ageny because he has been outrighted previously in his career.
JOHN B: Exactly. I think if the Cubs make a deal with the Rangers, it's Texas who would want some of the Cubs ISBP value, not the other-way around.
And remember too that the best 16-year old international prospects usually sign right at the start of the ISP on July 2nd, so there could be a flurry of trades on July 2 that would allow a club like the Rangers to add ISBP values that would enable them to sign the #1 Venezuelan or Dominican prospect.
JOHN B: 2012-13 International Signing Bonus Pool (ISBP) values ($2.9M per club) CANNOT be traded, and 2013-14 ISBP values (which are divided into 1/4 values of unequal amounts and which vary depending on the club's 2012 winning percentage ranking) cannot be traded until the start of the 2013-14 International Signing Period (ISP) on July 2nd. (The 2012-13 ISP closes on June 15th, and no international players can be signed during the period of time extending from June 16 to July 1.
Thank you. It sounds like the Cubs could maybe even be more logical sellers of an ISBP share than buyers. Packaging a share with Garza or Feldman might increase the eliteness of the in-system prospect(s) coming back to the Cubs.
"A fastball and slider specialist, Sanchez has been a lights-out reliever in the minors and now appears fully cooked and ready to help with an MLB squad. He didn't look his best during a stint with the team in 2012, but if he stays healthy, he can still be a nasty late-inning weapon for the Cardinals in 2013, and probably for many years to come."
How is it that the best organization, with Dave Duncan, would waive this guy?
He seems to be a solid prospect. As good, or better than any bullpen shit the Cubs have currently. Oh wait...
from CBS sports and Tribune...
CBS...To make room for Garza on the roster, the Cubs earlier Tuesday designated RHP Michael Bowden for assignment. Also Tuesday, Chicago claimed RHP Eduardo Sanchez off waivers from the St. Louis Cardinals and assigned him to the Triple-A Iowa Cubs.
Trib...The 24-year-old Sanchez had a 3.72 earned-run average in nine appearances at Triple-A Memphis. He made 43 appearances for the Cardinals in 2011 and '12, compiling a 3.40 earned-run average. Last year he had a 6.60 ERA in 17 outings for the Cardinals.