Randy Wells continued his dominance of the Houston Astros last night. He's started three times against them this season, won two of them and has yet to give up an earned in 20.2 IP, with just one unearned run last night in the 7th. The win last night was his 10th on the season, the first Cub rookie to accomplish that since Kerry Wood in 1998. I took a look at some of the more advanced metrics too see how fluky Wells' season may have been and you know, it's not to bad. While a low 3 ERA is probably a bit much to ask for next year, his .285 BABIP isn't ridiculously out of whack, like let's say his ROY competition J.A. Happ and his .249 BABIP. Wells' FIP (Fielding Independant ERA) is 3.85 and his xFIP (a fancier version of FIP that tries to 'normalize' for expected home runs per flyball) is higher at 4.30, which is still pretty respectable for a guy that will barely make over the league minimum next season.
I think if they did vote today, J.A. Happ would likely win the Rookie of the Year vote with a better ERA in a tougher park, nicer win-loss record(thanks Cubs bullpen) and the strength of a better team. A quick look at some of the other competition.
J.A. Happ: 2.63 ERA, 10-3, 143.2 IP, 97 K, 51 BB
Tommy Hanson: 3.15 ERA, 9-3, 88.2 IP, 73 K, 32 BB
Randy Wells: 2.90 ERA, 10-7, 133.1 IP, 82 K, 35 BB
Chris Coghlan: 9 HR, 301/377/446/823 OPS in 422 PA's
Colby Rasmus: 14 HR, 259/315/427/742 OPSin 418 PA's
Andrew McCutchen: 11 HR, 288/362/495/857 in 354 PA's and 15/18 in SB's
Garrett Jones: 17 HR, 295/365/614/979 OPS in 233 PA's
(I missed McCutchen and Jones on the first pass)
Today's must-win lineup is Fukudome, Blanco (wtf?), Lee, Bradley, Fox, Fontenot, Baker, Hill and Lilly.